Fantasy Football Advice

Here are some guys that are hurting or sitting –

Pierre Thomas: He had a setback with his left ankle, which is the one that kept him out much of the season.  After last week it looked like PT was back on track, but it’s time to put him back on the rack. He’s officially listed as questionable, but I wouldn’t use him even if he plays.  If he is out on Sunday this really gives Chris Ivory a boost who has been practicing all week.

Matt Forte: The odds are against the Bears having anything to play for by the time they face the Packers and even though Lovie Smith is saying the starters will play, many of the backups are getting work in practice. Unless the Falcons and Saints lose at 1pm, I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting any Bears.

Tom Brady: He should play most of the game.  If they get up big they’ll sit starters, but getting up big means fantasy points.

Matthew Hasselbeck: They are in a must win game so it looks like he will at least try to play.  If he can go the whole game it does help Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu.

Malcom Floyd: He practiced in full on Friday and looks healthy enough to go.  He is a free agent after the season so will want to finish as strongly as possible.  He is at risk to tweak something so be careful, but he does have some upside.

Knowshon Moreno: He is listed as questionable and it’s hard to know exactly where he is health wise, so it wouldn’t be wise to put much trust in him.

Deion Branch: He is listed as questionable so there is a good chance he will be limited or sit to rest up for the playoffs.  Taylor Price would probably take his place, but would be too risky to play this season.  Price is someone to keep your eye on in dynasty though.

Marques Colston: He had his knee scoped and is listed as questionable.  If the Saints were in a win or stay home game, I could see him going, but it looks like he will sit out.  If he does, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore would see an uptick in looks.

Andre Johnson: He is going to have ankle surgery and is out this week.  Jacoby Jones played well with AJ out last week so I would give him another shot this week.

Darren McFadden: Turf toe has been the demise of many a running back and it looks like Run DMC has caught the horrible affliction.  He looks like he will play, but expect Michael Bush to get a bump in carries.  I would steer clear unless you are desperate.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: After a nice stretch Fitz has fallen back down to earth and now hasn’t practiced at all this week. Brian Brohm would get the start if Fitzy doesn’t go.

David Garrard: He is done for with a bum finger and Trent Edwards will get the start.  This isn’t good news for the wide receivers.  I do think Rashad Jennings, yes, that jackhole, should see plenty of check downs from the check down king.

Michael Vick: Kevin Kolb will get the start to give Vick a rest from getting sacked repeatedly.  Kolb is good enough to put up decent numbers against the Cowboys poor pass defense even with many of the starters relaxing on the sidelines.  Really, if you are contemplating starting an Eagle 1st teamer, don’t.

Desean Jackson: He is listed as questionable and most likely won’t play with Jason Avant taking his spot.  Avant makes a decent flex option this week.

Maurice Jones Drew: He is out and will most likely have knee surgery.  Rashad Jennings gets another shot to redeem himself.

Mark Sanchez: He’s hurting with a bum shoulder and can’t be counted on this week, which makes the Jets receivers fairly unusable.  Who knows what the Jets will do as far as resting their players. I would be careful starting any of them.

Aaron Hernandez: He didn’t practice on Friday and it looks like he will sit.  The Patriots will play their starters for the most part because that’s what they do, so Rob Gronkowski becomes a nice start once again.

Calvin Johnson: He hasn’t practiced and is questionable.  It will probably come down to how he feels in warmups.  If he does go, it would be hard not to give him a shot and if he doesn’t go, I like Nate Burleson.

Peyton Hillis: He didn’t practice this week and if he does play he gets the Steelers tough run defense.

David Buehler: The Cowboys signed Kris Brown to beat up David Buehler.  Who knows for sure how this breaks down this week so I would just stay away from Buehler.

LaDainian Tomlinson: It looks like he might sit out this week and be replaced by Joe McKnight.  Rex Ryan says McKnight will get a lot of work.  The Bills pretty much suck at stopping the run so he could possibly do something.  He’s very risky, but you might be into that kind of thing.

This is a very difficult week to predict who will be playing and how much. An example of this is LeSean McCoy, Jerome Harrison, and Owen Schmitt.  McCoy could last from one series to a half and then Harrison could play from most of the game to a half and Schmitt could vulture goal line looks and some carries from Harrison. So even though we know McCoy is going to sit at some point it’s hard to feel confident in his back up.  Of course that is just one example, but many of them aren’t cut and dry.  I’ll have another post looking at some of these, including injuries.  It will be a delight.

Here are this week’s rankings –

Quarterback

1. Peyton Manning – IND vs TEN
2. Aaron Rodgers – GB vs CHI
3. Drew Brees – NO vs TB
4. Philip Rivers – SD at DEN
5. Ben Roethlisberger – PIT at CLE
6. Matt Schaub – HOU vs JAX
7. Eli Manning – NYG at WAS
8. Matt Ryan – ATL vs CAR
9. Tom Brady – NE vs MIA
10. Joe Flacco – BAL vs CIN
11. Kevin Kolb – PHI vs. DAL
12. Josh Freeman – TB at NO
13. Shaun Hill – DET vs MIN
14. Tim Tebow – DEN vs SD
15. (more…)

Congratulations to Chris Abbott and his team You’re My Boy Blue who is our Razzball Commenter League Champion for 2010!!  It was a close finish so check out the  RCL Overall Standings and lament how close you were or despair over how far back you finished. I lost a close battle in our league and finished second to Eric Yeomans, congrats Eric!  It was a good year and I sure wish it wasn’t over!

I’d like to once again thank Fantasy Sports Trophies for supplying us with the overall trophy and the individual league trophies! If you won your league I need to get your address so email me at doc at razzball dot com and I’ll get you set up!   Here is the trophy Chris will get.  Congrats to all the league winners and thanks everyone for playing!

Congratulations to Razzball commenter Bumblin’ n’ Stumblin’ for picking the QB/RB/WR with the most points last week. Rodgers/JC Supastar/Nicks totaled 72 points.

We will continue to play the fantasy contest through the first couple weeks of the playoffs so stick around for that.  I said stick around!

Since Pay The Fan and the Crystal Ball subscription are done for the season, the winner will receive 10 dollars for FanDuel.  FanDuel will continue to have games through the first two rounds of the playoffs.  And we will also have a special to be named later prize to go along with the FanDuel money and it’s now later so the prize will be this state of the art coffee mug! 

Let’s wipe the slate clean and try again.  You will pick the top fantasy quarterback, running back and wide receiver for week 17 (No tight ends!).  The winner will be the person whose three players total the most fantasy points for the week.  We will be using standard ESPN scoring to determine the points.

This game is completely free to play so I hope you guys will do what you do with the picking and the writing in the comments.  Or in English, for week 17 of the NFL season please write in the comments, your predictions for best QB/RB/WR.  Since there is no Monday Night game the tie breaker will be the total points for the Sunday Night game.  This week it is Rams @ Seahawks.

Example: QB: Matt Leinart RB: Julius Jones WR: Randy Moss,  NO/SF: 134 total points

Your entry will not be counted if you put “Manning” or “Williams.”  Make sure to put full names to avoid any confusion.

And just for fun here are my picks: Manning/Turner/Jennings and 1.34 points.

(Doc’s Note: If you have any questions try not to use this post.  Let’s try to keep the comments just for entries.)

Last week was a bit of a cluster fudge (mmmm fudge clusters) at FanDuel, caused by the Eagles game getting postponed and some funky rules.  I feel like they did an admirable job cleaning up the mess, and it actually makes me even more confident in playing their games.  Anyway, here is this first league for this week – League 1.  I’ll put up more as/if they fill.

This week I’m trying to select players on teams that are highly motivated to win.  Makes sense, right?  So here they be –

Aaron Rodgers: The Packers need a win and bad.  The Bears are saying they will play their starters, but there is no way they can have the same motivation as the Pack. The only way they have anything to play for is if the Panthers beat the Falcons and the Bucs beat the Saints and I just don’t see that happening.  Rodgers dismantled the Giants and could do the same against a Bears team without much to play for.

Steven Jackson: SJax is hard to stop at any time, but it’s hard to imagine how hard it will be to stop him when he is motivated.  The Seahawks have been giving up a load of rushing yards this season and I think Mr. Jackson is just nasty enough to take them.

Michael Turner: The Falcons do not, I repeat, do not want to lose to the hapless Panthers, lose the #1 seed, and lose any momentum/self respect they possibly could have going into the playoffs.  Turner already scorched the Panthers once this season and I think he’ll do that again.

Brandon Marshall: He’s coming on late in the season and the Patriots still suck at defending the pass.  They will also rest any players with a tweak or a tickle.

Miles Austin: The Dallas quarterbacks targeted Austin 13 times last week and the Eagles should be resting many of their starters.  Whoever QBs the Cowboys should give Austin plenty of opportunities to make plays.

Mike Wallace: The Steelers need a win to wrap up the division and the #2 seed.  A loss could drop them down into the depths of the playoffs.  Wallace is the sixth ranked receiver in fantasy.

Jacob Tamme: The Colts are in a must win sitch, which is great for Tamme.  I like all the Colts to one degree or another, but the Titans are weak against tight ends and Tamme is a lot cheaper than Witten who I like just a little better.

Garrett Hartley: Dome, Saints have something to play for sorda, go.

New York Giants: I like a lot of defenses for Sunday, but the Giants are cheap, are in a must win game and are facing the Redskins,  Yeah, Grossman hasn’t been horrid, but he’s still Grossman.

Here is a hodge podgery of players you might want to grab for your dynasty teams.  Some are sleepier than others and I have no criteria, such as percentage owned, etc…, for who is on this list, but I’m guessing all could be found in someone’s die nasty league.  As off season moves come in we’ll see some of these guys lose their upside, but all you can do is try.

Jacoby Jones: He sure is having a lot of trouble living up to his potential, but he does have a lot of potential.  His down season should make it easier to grab him for next season when hopefully he stops sucking.  With AJ out he did pretty well and has the tools for a #1 receiver.

Emmanuel Sanders: Hines Ward is having trouble warding off old age and Sanders looks like he is next in line, at least for now.  He has come up big late in the season and should be the front runner for the #2 slot next season.  Hines isn’t going to fall off the face of the earth, but his body could start falling of his bones (gross).

James Jones: Donald Driver stayed intact enough and Jordy Nelson did his part as well in keeping Jones from getting a ton of targets, but Jones, like Jacoby, has the skill set to be a top guy and Driver will some day keel over.  Add to that Rodgers’ awesomeness and you have the secret to success.

Damian Williams: I do wish the Titans were more stable at quarterback for Williams, but he has the ability to take over the #2 slot beside Kenny Britt.

Earl Bennett: He’s never going to be a huge scorer, but Devin Aromashodu is getting old and Devin Hester is never going to be a reliable receiver.  Bennett is still 23 and looks like the long term possession receiver to Knox’s deep threatism.  He should be more valuable in PPR leagues.

James Starks: He really is pretty good, but coming off an injury he still isn’t his old self.  If he can get back to his college speed, he could be dangerous on the Packers.  Ryan Grant will be back so don’t overpay for him.

James Davis: Finding the next Peyton Hillis is not going to be easy, but you’ve got to give it a try if your dynasty benches are deep enough.  I like Davis more than Torain and Torain is injury prone.  I wouldn’t invest my soul in him, but he’s worth a flier.  My soul is worth 3 and a half fliers.

Stephen Williams: This guy is the real deal.  He had no chance this season to develop with his long term quarterback, whoever that might be, but if the right situation somehow miraculously happens in Arizona, he could be good and fast and how.

Danario Alexander: He has a ton of upside with his skill set and Sam Bradford at the helm, but his knee issues have to knock him down a peg.  His ceiling is Michelangelo great and hopefully a clean, non-surgical offseason will get him on the right track for studliness.

Rashad Jennings: He killed many of us.  I mean destroyed all of our dreams and aspirations in one fell swoop of his rottenness. And when I get swooped by rottenness I’m not one to forget, but Jennings is better than that last game showed.  MJD is wearing down and Jennings would be his main benefactor if he took a fantasy dirt nap.

Bernard Scott: Cedric Benson will be a free agent this offseason so the Bengals running back shituation could be up for grabs.  I don’t really see Scott as a 25 carry kind of guy, but he does have enough ability to be a 15 carry guy and could help you next season.

Jason Hill: With Mike Sims-Walker a free agent, Hill will at least get a shot at being the guy.

Jerome Simpson: He has been a bust for most of his time in the NFL, but went off last week.  Maybe the light went on or maybe he just got lucky.  But with TO gone and Ocho getting old and no other receivers with his skill set in the running right now, he’s worth a gamble.

Montario Hardesty: Peyton Hillis’ running style wore him down this season and Hardesty will get his shot next year.  He looked good in preseason and has a lot of upside.

Mohamed Massoquoi: He’s had some bad quarterbacks throwing to him, but it looks like McCoy could be better than bad.

Demaryius Thomas: Now that he has the greatest QB of all time to throw to him he should be All-World.  I am a big fan of DT’s and I think next season he’ll scooch up into the starting rotation.

Jerome Harrison: He’s just too good to not be on somebodies fantasy team.  It really is a shame that he’s been jerked around so much in his career.  He is getting too old to be worth a ton in dynasty, but if the opportunity presents itself in a high powered Eagles offense, he could shine.

Jimmy Graham: This is a bit of a no-brainer and his recent success might make it hard to get him, but if he is available he is a must add in dynasty.

Jared Cook: The Titans have a nice young set of receivers which could be helped by the emergence of Cook.  His upside is too good not to take a flier on.  He will be on a lot of sleeper lists next season.

Matt Flynn: Flynn will probably be backing up Rodgers again, but there is always a chance a team will try to pry him away.  He’s worth speculating on.

Colt McCoy: He’s probably gone in dynasty, but he has some upside on a team that should continue to improve.

It’s week 17 and usually that means a whole lot of players being rested for the playoffs (which of course is why you should only play to week 16 in fantasy), but this season is a little better than seasons in the past.  We still have to worry about some teams resting players early, but not like in the past. Here are the playoff breakdowns as best as I can decipher them.  If you see an error, please point it out.

AFC

New England Patriots: They have clinched the #1 seed and have nothing to play for.  They have coasted here recently anyway, so it’s hard to know how they will play it.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1 pm): They are in the playoffs, but to clinch the #2 seed and a bye they need to beat the Browns in Cleveland. They will play hard.

Baltimore Ravens (1 pm): They are in the playoffs, but need to beat the Bengals and have the Steelers lose to steal the #2 seed from the Steelers.  Thankfully both teams play at the same time, so they should play their starters and have motivation.

New York Jets (1 pm): They have a wildcard wrapped up and could get the 5th seed instead of the 6th seed with a Steelers loss and Ravens win, but I think their main motivating factor will be to stop sucking so much.

Kansas City Chiefs (1 pm): They have their division wrapped up, but the difference between 3 and 4 seed is a trip to New England vs a trip to Pittsburgh/Baltimore, if they happen to win their first game.  None of those places are all that desirable, but if I were the Chiefs I’d rather have someone else try to knock the Patriots off in that game.  I think they will play their starters against the rival Raiders at home, but it’s not a mortal lock.

Indianapolis Colts (4 pm): It’s week 17 and Peyton Manning isn’t sitting out?  Amazing! The Colts are in a must win situation. If they beat the Titans, they win the division.  If they lose and the Jaguars win, they are out of the playoffs. Thankfully they play at the same time.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4 pm): The Jags don’t control their destiny and can’t feel too good about their chances, but they will be playing all out, which is good since they get the Texans pass defense. They win and the Colts lose and they are division champs.

NFC

Atlanta Falcons (1 pm): The Falcons loss to the Saints means they have to beat the Panthers to get the #1 seed, which is pretty important to a team that plays well at home. Oh, and the Panthers are unbelievably horrible.  I mean, so bad.

New Orleans Saints (1 pm): The Saints have the 5th seed wrapped up, but if the earth opens up and swallows the Falcons and a group of 3rd graders plays the Panthers and somehow the Panthers luck out and beat those third graders, the Saints would be the #1 seed with a win over Tampa Bay and a loss by the Bears and the Eagles.  That is a huge long shot, but the difference between the #5 seed and #1 seed is huge. They should play their starters.

Chicago Bears (4 pm): The Bears have the #2 seed wrapped up and will know if they have a chance at the #1 seed before the games start because they need the Saints and Falcons to lose which is very unlikely.  Beat reporter Sean Jenson believes they will play.  Hard to know for sure.

Philadelphia Eagles (4 pm): (updated) The Eagles lost to the Vikings, yes, really.  So now they are the #3 seed and nothing can change that, Nothing!  So stop trying Vick owners who have week 17 championships.  Vick is hurting and they will want to rest him.

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams (8 pm): Whoever wins is in and will be the 4th seed.  The loser is a loser. And the winner is also a bit of a loser.

Green Bay Packers (4 pm): If they beat the Bears they get the 6th seed.  They will play all out.  They could lose and still get in if the Giants and Bucs lose, but the Giants play at the same time as the Packers so they won’t know ahead of time.

New York Giants (4 pm): Like I said above they need the Packers to lose and they need to beat the Redskins and they get in. So they will be motivated and get a poor Redskins defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 pm): They need to beat the Saints, and the Bears to beat the Packers and The Redskins to beat the Giants.  That’s a tall order, but they will be playing all their starters in a must win game.

The rest of the teams who have nothing to play for don’t have to worry about being healthy for the playoffs, so they should play their starters for the most part.