New York Jets, 2012 Team Preview

For yet another season, Razzball will be interviewing local NFL beat writers for some in-depth actual football knowledge to sway some insight in our fantasy football knowledge. Keep your eye out for an interview for every NFL team through the summer and check out each one on the “2012 Fantasy Football Team Previews” link. This installment comes courtesy of David Wyatt from New York Jets blog Gang Green Nation:

1) Mark Sanchez set two career highs last year with 32 total touchdowns and 26 total turnovers. Obviously, one of them was really a career low but you get what I’m saying. Though the numbers weren’t completely terrible, he did regress from his 2010 campaign in ways. Now with Tim Tebow on board, are there any questions about who the number one quarterback in Jets camp is and how long it will stay that way?

Last year we tried to put too much on Sanchez, he’ll never be a Quarterback who should throw the football 50 times a game. The Verbiage in the Schottenheimer offense was too much and we didn’t play to his strengths. This year we are going back to asking Mark to manage the offense, however as a result of that I don’t think we’ll see him improve on that 32 total touchdown mark, but he will improve on that 26 total turnover Mark. There is no doubt in New York right now regarding the number one quarterback. Sanchez is the guy and I think he’ll be the guy when it comes to week 16 and beyond. However Tebow will get the snaps within the 5 yard line, and this will affect Sanchez’s fantasy value.

2) Sticking with Tebow, the Jets seemed the least likely of all teams to be targeting him once Peyton went to the Broncos and yet here he is, an NYJ. We worry he’ll be too busy praying for Ryan’s soul to be ready to take the field after he hears what a Rex locker room speech sounds like to have an effect on fantasy football teams. That said, what type of role do you see him having on the team and will he be relevant for fantasy purposes this year?

Last week Tebow said that he really didn’t know what his role would be on this team and if he and the coaching staff don’t know, I really don’t know either. It seems as though they will use him as a short yardage player, especially down in the red zone. He’ll work out of the Wildcat system that Sparano knows and loves on occasions. However how much he plays really is a mystery. I think we’ll see him everywhere and the rumours are that we will design between 10-12 plays for Tebow a game. I think he’ll score some touchdowns this year, but his fantasy value will be one of the hardest things to judge. I wouldn’t select him, but if I’m getting down to some bench positions, there are worse players to select than Tebow.

3) Everywhere we google, we hear that Shonn Greene is lining up to have a monster year and yet the Jets have stated he will not be the 3rd down back. Those two statements don’t add up in many ways. With Tebow in the mix at the goal line and Shonn only scoring 6 touchdowns to begin with last year, what can the fantasy community reasonably expect from Shonn Greene this season?

Anytime a team comes out and says they are going to ground and pound the football, the #1 back will always get serious consideration. It’s very possible that the Jets will run the football between 560-600 times this season. Shonn Greene will be a big part of that, but so will Joe McKnight and if he continues his training camp form Bilal Powell. The thing about Shonn is that his catching out of the backfield is not to a standard that will allow him to be in on 3rd down and neither is his pass protection. I do think that Shonn will end the year with 1000 yards however his touchdowns will likely be around the 5-7 mark again due to Tebows involvement in short yardage and goal line situations. Shonn is still an enigma to me, and his career projectory may rest on this years performance.

4) The Jets decided not to re-sign Plaxico Burress this off-season but seemed to draft a younger, faster, less gun-shootier version in 6-4, 215 Stephen Hill. What are your thoughts on him and will he be a good draft day buy for fantasy football owners in 2012?

I really like Stephen Hill and I actually wanted us to draft him before the pre-draft build up started. Coming from a triple option offense at Georgia Tech, I’m not expecting him to shoot out of the blocks and end the season with 1000+ yards and 10+ touchdowns. However when we pump that football on the ground and then move to the play-action, he’ll be the one streaking down the sideline. With his frame and his speed, I think we’ll see him become the Jets #2 go to receiver. I think he’ll probably finish the year with 400-600 yards and 5-7 touchdowns. I don’t think he should be your primary, but if you want to take a flier on a 3rd wide receiver option. Place your bets on Hill, 1 because he is already impressing in camp, 2 because we don’t have a legitimate #2 this year so Hill will see plenty of the ball and 3, well you just have to have some faith and take a gamble
sometimes.

5) Santonio Holmes and his fantasy value have had quite a ride over at ESPN over the last three years. In 2010, they had him as the 34th best wide receiver and was somewhat of a value. Then in 2011, they ranked him as the 17th best wide receiver and he disappointed. Now he’s back down to 33 for this season. What gives? Do they just draw names from a hat when they rank these guys? Oh and for your actual question: will Holmes finally have a break out year in a Jets uniform in 2012?

I really have no idea how ESPN do anything, let alone their fantasy rankings…..they seem to do things on the fly. Do I think he will have a break out year? No I really don’t. I think he’ll have a solid year, but we’re going to run the football too much for Holmes to have that breakout season. I think he will have room to work underneath. Aside from his 2009 season, he has always been a 50 reception type receiver and I think we’ll probably see that again this year. I would say he’ll have 52 receptions, 690-740 yards and 8 touchdowns. That’s where I expect his stat line to be at the end of the year.