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(Doc’s note: First off I’d like to thank everyone for sending in entries for the first round. I had an extremely difficult and rewarding time narrowing these down. As the chief honcho here at Razzball and a nerdy English professor, I found good stuff in every entry and feel like all of you have the ability to improve and become bad ass fantasy writers. In this business it takes passion, perseverance and practice. I’ll go out on a limb and call them the three P’s. I think ya’ll have the foundation to make it happen, so I highly encourage you to keep it up! Write, write and write some more. That’s the secret. And I can’t wait to read your next batch of entries! Now I’d like to introduce our first round winner Greg Smith. Check it out! Oh, and follow him on Twitter @gregsauce.)

The Book of Job, benevolent dinosaurs, cosmic swaths of color and flame, a flock of birds, Brad Pitt playing the piano, drafting a wide receiver in the first round, The Universe!  If there’s one thing I learned from Terrence Mallick and his crazy love for voiceovers, it’s that everything is connected.  A force of action must meet an equal, opposite, and collinear reactive force.  That’s physics, son.  Physics is the only non-cash currency that TO accepts.  Or is it physiques?  Regardless, for every lock, there is a crock and for every crock, a lock.  Let’s move on lest it dawn on the irate estate of Dr. Seuss to take the chance to sue off my pants.

LOCK #1:  Some jerk(s) in your league will pick a quarterback or a wide receiver in the first round of your draft.

CROCK #1:  You need to draft a running back in the first round of your draft.

Last year it was Andre Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Randy Moss, and Drew Brees.  This year it will be some combination of AJ, Vick, Rodgers, Megatron, and Roddy White.  Ever since the cosmos were born in a dazzling dispersion of energy, matter, and 80-yard TD passes, experts have intoned that thou shalt draft a running back in the first round.  Still, there are many who just cannot resist the siren song of those 80-yard bombs.

Call me one of the deviants, because I’m going to recommend passing on first-round running backs again this season.  It may seem like heresy, but as Aristotle believed in a spherical earth, I believe in taking a wide receiver in the first round.  With the ever-growing number of teams employing a committee at running back and the general amount of turnover at the position, it’s relatively easy to find value at RB later in the draft.  The top-tier guys at WR are a more valuable commodity when last season guys like Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles could be had later in the draft and perform on par with the RBs taken in the opening round.  With all that said, I’m probably not taking AJ in the first five picks, but I would definitely consider him in the latter half of the first round.  As for quarterbacks, I’m still not sold taking one in the first round, but a full season from Vick would probably be worth the investment. 

LOCK #2:  Someone will beat out the #1-drafted player at most, if not all, positions.

Let’s look at the top performers from last season using ESPN standard scoring relative to their 2010 ADPs*:

QB:  Michael Vick, 300 points, 192.9 ADP (35th QB drafted)

RB:  Arian Foster, 313 points, 54.2 ADP (23rd RB drafted)

WR:  Brandon Lloyd, 203 points, ADP so late it doesn’t matter

TE:  Jason Witten, 146 points, 55.6 ADP (5th TE drafted)

K:  Who cares?

DEF:  Seriously, who cares?

*ADPs taken from MyFantasyLeague.com, using data from drafts after August 25th, 2010.

Vick and Lloyd were fantasy afterthoughts going into the 2010 season, but it didn’t stop them from leading their positions in fantasy points.  At least Foster was drafted as a starter, assuming you play in a league innovative enough to have rosters with two RB spots and a flex (provocative!).  You could say Jason Witten was also drafted as a starter, but in any league worth Shane Lechler’s smelling salts, the only tight ends drafted are fantasy starters.

This scoring vs. #1 ADP trend is nothing new.  The last player drafted #1 at his position to lead his position in scoring was LaDanian Tomlinson in 2007.

CROCK #2:  It’s okay to ignore the order on the top of you cheat sheets because of Lock #2.

Admittedly, this isn’t a total crock.  There’s a reason most of us have adopted the “tier” approach to drafting, but bear with me while we take a look at those players drafted first at their positions in 2010:

QB:  Aaron Rodgers, 292 points (2nd), 7.1 ADP

RB:  Chris Johnson, 216 points (5th), 1.6 ADP

WR:  Andre Johnson, 164 points (8th), 8.8 ADP

TE:  Dallas Clark, 51 points (28th), 39.1 ADP

Rodgers came up short of Vick by a mere 8 points, albeit in a couple extra games.  Nonetheless, Rodgers delivered on his #1 QB ranking with an awesome fantasy season.  Considering all the games that Vick missed, I’d argue that Rodgers was more valuable to his owners on a week-to-week basis and probably put more teams into the playoffs.  AJ was on pace to put up top-3 numbers at his position before he got hurt and missed the last two games of the season (12.6 fantasy points per game; Lloyd had 12.7 ppg for the season).  Similarly, Dallas Clark’s season was derailed by injury.  Managers wise enough to combine Clark and his replacement, Jacob Tamme, into a mythical beast we’ll call the Dalcob Clamme earned a point total of 137 for the year, good for second among tight ends.

Pertaining to Chris Johnson (you can’t stop CJ, you can only hope to pertain to him), his owners still ended up with a top-five running back and nothing prevented them from also drafting Arian Foster in a subsequent round.  In a nutshell (much smaller than an Art Shell), that’s the best argument against trying to lock up the top point-getters in the early rounds – it’s better to grab them later and team them up with the top projected point-getters that you pay for in the early rounds.  The draft is all about finding value.

LOCK #3:  There Will Be Bye Weeks.

Synopsis:  The film follows the rise to power of [Jerry Jones] – a charismatic and ruthless [football owner], driven to succeed by his intense hatred of others and desperate need to see any and all competitors fail. When he learns of [advertising]-rich [airtime] in [television] that can be bought cheaply, he moves his operation there and begins manipulating and exploiting the local [football players] into selling him their [bodies/souls/soon-to-be-concussed craniums]. Using his young adopted son [Roger Goodell] to project the image of a caring family man, [Jones] gains the cooperation of almost all the [players] with lofty promises to build [enormous stadiums] and cultivate [season ticket sales] to make their [league] flourish. Over time, [Jones’] gradual accumulation of wealth and power causes his true self to surface, and he begins to slowly alienate himself from everyone in his life.

(Thanks IMDB!)

CROCK #3:  Managers should avoid drafting players with the same bye week.

It doesn’t matter if you have Arian Foster, Drew Brees, Reggie Wayne, and Mike Wallace on your team, who all are on bye in week 11.  Every other week of the season, they’ll be in your lineup drinking your opponents’ milkshakes.

CROCK #4:  Antonio Gates is worth a 3rd- or 4th-round pick.

LOCK #4:  Vincent Jackson is worth a 3rd- or 4th-round pick.

Let’s keep it going with a player-specific blurb, or to be more specific with my specifics, a Charger-specific blurb.  These two San Diegan pass-catchers are currently going pretty close to each other in drafts, but only one of them is worth the high price.  Don’t get me wrong, Gates is a beast, but I’d rather wait a couple rounds for Jason Witten or Jermichael Finley (or wait a lot longer for someone like Jimmy Graham).  VJax, on the other hand, seems like a top-five receiver to me.  He’s always had the tools and now with Ryan Mathews poised for a breakout plus a healthy Gates demanding respect from defenses, Jackson could easily climb past a number of the wideouts currently ahead of him in ADP.  Even if he doesn’t, the stats he puts up will certainly be worth the 3rd-round price tag.

LOCK #5:  Drafting a kicker before the final round is a bad idea.

CROCK #5:  Kicker is not important during the season.

It’s impossible to predict which games Sebastian Janikowski is going to show up for sober.  You never know when a Gramática is going to break his leg celebrating a meaningless field goal.  Hell, I can’t even remember which Gramática used to be automatica.  Kickers are the tortilla chips of fantasy football; there are many varieties, but they’re all pretty much the same – oily, salty, and begging to be dipped in something.  This is why you should never draft a kicker before the first round**.  With that said, you still need to pay attention to your kicker during the season.  Play the match-ups.  Sometimes those Tostitos will just blow Casa Sanchez out of the guacamole, you know?

**Bonus advice!  If your league drafts relatively early, don’t draft a kicker at all.  Instead, take a flier on a RB/WR prospect for your bench and wait until right before week 1 to drop your most useless player and grab a slightly less useless kicker.

From Around The Web

  1. Ladd says:
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    Congrats to @gregsauce. Great read! Well done!

  2. gregsauce says:
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    I’ll reiterate what I wrote in the comments for the post announcing the winners:

    “My comments about drafting Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster were in reference to last season, where both of them could usually be had in the third round or later. I should have been more clear about that and provided a corollary for this season, like the following:

    Whereas last year I tried to team up AJ in Round 1 with Charles and Foster, this year I will be trying to draft him alongside Ryan Mathews and Jonathan Stewart.

    Apologies for the mix-up and many thanks for letting it slide, oh great judges of the NSFWNGFFW.”

    That’s me quoting me. (<– That's me quoting Grey)

    With all that said (re-said?), I'm glad my submission was posted as written because it reminds me that I have room for significant improvement. Thanks for reading and good luck to everyone in Round 2.

  3. Bourne says:
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    Dear Greg,
    I don’t know if I agree with any of your statements except kickers. However, it was so well written and so entertaining that I can’t believe I even submitted my crap and thought it was even decent. Very nice job and look forward to your next winning entry.

  4. Drew Crew says:
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    @anyone Which is better: 1 ppr or .5?

  5. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Drew Crew: if you are going with PPR you might as well go 1 ppr. Otherwise it’s just not much of a difference.

  6. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @gregsauce: @Bourne: For what it’s worth I’m on board with Greg’s ideas — the Elite WR’s after the top 5/6 RBs. It thins out pretty fast. And you have to stick with the top ADP guys that you project to do well. It would have been insane to pick Arian Foster last season at #1 when you could have CJ/AP who both were good AND Foster later. I like VJax over Gates any day. You need to fill 3 WR slots and only 1 TE slot. And you should never pass on a guy just because of his bye week. Save that for backup quarterbacks.

  7. Lynch says:
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    “This is why you should never draft a kicker before the first round.”

    and

    “..guys like Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles could be had later in the draft”

    Thanks for blessing us with your expert opinion.

  8. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    awesome read man,

    I’m a first time poster to the football side of RAZZZZZZ, but i’m all over that baseball shizz.

    Anyway,

    I’m in a 1 player keeper league, I may be able to pry michael vick away from the guy who gets to keep him (we can only keep players who were drafted after the 8th round). I have 7th pick, i offered him my 4th, 7th, and 11th round picks. Is that too much?

    (I have VJAX as my keeper)

  9. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Lynch: Not sure you can draft anyone before the first round. That would take some skill. And he was saying that last season you could get Foster and JC later. But your faceless attack on someone is commendable.

  10. Tommy says:
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    Excellent post Greg. Love the writing.

    I agree with your points as well. I think your Lock/Crock #2 is a great rebuttal to some writing I’ve seen recently saying Vick should be the #1 draft pick. The writer argued using the fact that (I believe in ESPN standard leagues) Vick was the most widely owned player on championship rosters.

    To me that misses the point that you make here about draft day value. Of course people who owned Vick, Foster, McFadden, Lloyd and the like did really well last year because they could have drafted them really late/picked them up off waivers in addition to their normal early round picks.

    Nice read.

  11. mindicohn says:
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    Congrats on a well written article. I got lazy and never finished mine but it would have paled in comparison. I also agree on WR over RB- — after the main 4.

  12. uncle mowglie says:
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    great article. it was a very discouraging read lol.Your writing made my entry look like it was written by a 6th grader. I have the outmost respect for your skills. Im sorry “utmost” I should say. Way to raise the bar. good luck in round 2.

  13. Gary Bajillion says:
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    yo, greg, congrats on rd 1.

    Re: Crock #1 — I would add that I think the maxim of 1st rd RBs has as much to do with draft strategy as it does with the relative value of say Megatron vs. Mendenhall. The challenge of taking a 1st Rd WR, is that there is a good chance, especially in 10-team leagues, that you’ll be forced to go WR-WR.

    If you’re playing in a league that starts 3 RB/2 WR, it means that you’ve lost your flexibility to nab a bargain WR2 later in the draft. It doesn’t matter if you think Vincent Jackson has top 5 upside, because in Round 3/4 you’re desperately grabbing Ryan Matthews and Jonathan Stewart to be your #1 and #2 RBs. If that happens, then AJ sure as hell better score 10 touchdowns for the first time in his career.

    For the average fantasy league, it’s a safer bet to take Mendenhall at #8 and try to get Roddy White at #13, even if you think AJ is better than Mendenhall, than it is to go AJ/Roddy, and then need the rest of the draft to go perfectly for you.

    It’s easy to point to Foster and Charles, but if you’d passed on Michael Turner or Mendenhall in the first round last year in order to take Johnson, you could just as easily have been stuck going AJ/Moss/Shonn Greene/Benson. (And I mean that ignoring the fact that Moss busted, which was kind of a fluke–I just mean in terms of ADP).

    In deeper competitive leagues, you’re definitely forced to focus much more on the best available player in each round, but in that type of league, few owners are drafting based on any kind of broad maxim anyway.

  14. P Smurf says:
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    Great article compadre. Love the milkshake reference. “I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!” lol. Man, I’m gonna have to step up my game to compete!

  15. Bourne says:
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    @Doc:
    Based on:http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/leaders

    There were 37 WR with 100 fantasy points or more. There were 5 TE with 100 fantasy points or more. In a 12 team league everyone can get 3 WR with 100 points and less than half of teams can get similar production from a TE. VJax averaged 10.5 points a game for 4 games (All games with no Gates). Gates averaged 14.8 points per game over 9 games (or even 12.2 points if you count weeks 9 and 11 when he was supposed to play).

    @Gary Bajillion:
    does a good job of explaining why a RB at first pick is better than WR. I’d rather go second tier RB1 and second tier WR1 than first tier WR1 and third or fourth tier RB1.

    I think on BYE week, if you have someone much better, you take him in spite of same BYE weeks, but Greg used examples of 4 players at 3 different positions. If all of your players are on the same bye week, you basically give up one week of your season in the draft. If their weeks are spread out, you can still stream in replacements and compete and win every week.

    Like I said, I think it was a great article. I personally don’t think they are all true, but they are up for argument which can be very fun to do.

  16. @gregsauce: I liked what I read here, but will certainly go into greater depth of analysis at lunch (when I read all that I print out in the morning). I am always interested in finding new voices in the realm of fantasy sports and I offer you my congratulations on your anticipated future success as a scribbler about fake football.

  17. gregsauce says:
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    @Lynch: If you’re going to quote me, at least be accurate. I said “final round”, not “first round”.

    Also, I never said I was an expert. All I did was submit an article.

  18. gregsauce says:
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    @Gary Bajillion: In my experience, deeper competitive leagues usually start three WR, I agree that with a 3-RB/2-WR setup, you’re almost always better off taking a running back with your first pick.

    On the other hand, I disagree with the notion that taking a receiver in the first round can commit you to taking another one in the second round. If you’re always drafting the “best available player”, it might work out that the top player on your board in Round 2 is a wideout, but I would warn against a draft strategy so rigid.

    For the sake of argument, let’s say you do go WR-WR in the first two rounds* and you’re faced with another receiver or even a QB at the top of your board in round 3. At that point, I think you likely NEED to take a running back, regardless of your board (please don’t blast me with 200 examples of corner cases where you would take the non-RB). If it’s correct to switch gears in the case of the third round, why not the second? Ultimately, I don’t think it’s ever a good idea to pigeonhole yourself during the draft. You’ve got to stay flexible and try to zig while your leaguemates zag.

    * I should state that I don’t really have a problem with going WR-WR in the first two rounds of a 10-team draft. I started a couple of teams last season with AJ & Roddy to a lot of success, typically teaming them with RBs like JC, Foster, J. Best, and A. Bradshaw.

  19. @doc

    interested in your opinion:

    dynasty keeper league

    starting :
    2 qb’s
    2 rb
    3 wr

    what 5 would you keep?

    QB-Tom Brady
    QB-Schaub
    RB-Arian Foster
    RB-Lesean McCoy
    rb-Steven Jackson
    wr-Andre Johnson
    wr-Dez Bryant
    wr-Desean Jackson

    thanks :)

  20. non ppr and qb”s get 1 pt for every 15yrds

  21. Gary Bajillion says:
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    @Bourne – I think you’re right on AGates–if we were drafting for last season, AGates would be a steal in the 4th Rd, and you’d pick up 4-5 points a week on every team in the league. (As for the direct comp. with VJax, I think we throw out his numbers–I mean he skipped so much time with the team.)

    AGates was having a monster season though, and this year will have a healthy backfield and VJax from Wk 1. Let’s still call Gates a lock for Top 3. The problem is that in a 1 TE league, you can wait until the last round of the draft and have a shot at a guy that will be worse than the Top 3 or 4 guys, but on par with everyone else in the league. Whereas if you replace your 3/4 Rd WR with a WR from the last round, you fall behind every team in the league. Because TE is fairly deep and you only need one, by skipping the value of Gates in the 4th, you essentially move up ALL your other roster spots by 1 round. If we KNOW that Gates will average 5 points per game more than every other TE, then you have to take him, but that’s not a given, so I think the other stuff trumps it. (It’s the same principle as sleeping on QBs except even more pronounced–you do have to grab a QB at some point, because teams will start taking #2 QBs and you have to beat that rush–TEs you can actually wait until the very end because almost nobody is taking two).

    @gregsauce: I think you’re misinterpreting my comments a little bit. The reason the 1st Rd RB mantra is such a staple of fantasy draft advice is because the average player is still playing in a 10-teamer with 3RB/2WR. And in that case, my point is that the advice has as much to do with draft strategy as it does with relative value of the players. If you’re talking about deeper leagues with 3WR, then the 1st Rd RB mantra is a bit of a straw man anyway.

    You’ve lost me a little with the rest of your argument–you’re saying exactly what I just said, but reaching a different conclusion. The danger of going WR-WR is that you then force yourself to go after RBs in Rd 3/4, even if there are great value WRs on the board, and the RBs suck. It can work out, as it did for lots of teams last year, but you have to NAIL those RB picks. If your league sleeps on the Foster’s and Bradshaws and you get them, you could be golden, but you have no margin for error.

    You’re saying that you should zig in Round 2 and take Frank Gore over Roddy White at 13? My point is that if you have a pick towards the end of Round 1, there’s a good chance that there are going to be two elite WRs for you. By taking them, you close off some options for yourself for the rest of the draft.

    Draft strategy changes every season with the pool of players that year. You seem to be saying that you can “switch gears” in Rd 2 by taking a RB over a more highly valued WR, rather than *needing* to “switch gears” in Rd 3. The point of my comment was that getting a RB in Rd 1 is valuable because I think it gives you the most flexibility in the draft. Everyone is valuing Andre Johnson over the RBs at the end of the top 10 or 12, so it is not a revelation to take him. My advice is that you need to consider “switching gears” in Rd 1, and taking the less valuable RB if you have a chance at an elite WR coming back to you, because the options at RB coming back to you are much riskier. For example, I would rather have Mendy/Roddy than AJ/Gore.

    Of course every draft is different. The better you know your leaguemates gives you a better idea of who might come back to you in round two, and obviously league size and setup makes all the difference in the world. I’m saying that when giving general advice about taking a WR in the first round, and important caveat is that if there’s a chance of a top WR falling to you in Rd 2, you might gamble on that, even if you like AJ, etc., better than Mendy, etc., because going WR-WR presents a real challenge, esp. in 2WR leagues.

  22. gregsauce says:
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    @Gary Bajillion: Pick your poison. Either you need to nail your RB picks in Rounds 3 & 4 or you need to nail your WR picks. My argument is that it’s easier to choose the correct RB in those later rounds than the correct WR, primarily because the majority of teams will be taking RBs in the first two rounds, and looking to grab WRs in the 3rd and 4th. In my experience, while those managers are grabbing receivers, the running backs still available tend to slip a little further than they should. Sure, some managers are going to load up on RBs, but they’re hamstringing themselves at the WR and QB positions.

    Honestly, it’s mostly a matter of having top-tier talent to me. In my submission, I wrote about how all the top-ADP guys tend to be worth the price on draft day. AJ and Roddy are almost sure to return their value relative to other WRs taken. If I’m missing out on the top 5 or 6 running backs, I’d rather have one or two of the top-3 receivers and pair them with 2nd-, 3rd- and 4th-round rushers because I think it’s easier to predict breakout seasons from RBs than WRs. Last season, then general consensus was that Foster and Charles were worth a gamble in rounds 3, 4, or 5 because their particular situations were easier to asses — they were both poised for breakouts but had some minor hurdles to overcome — but who the hell saw Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson coming?

    Long story short, if you are drafting in the 6-8 spots of the first round and you go RB-WR, there’s a good chance you’re starting your team with a tier-2 RB and a tier-2 WR. I’d rather have the tier-1 WR in round 1 and the tier-2 RB/WR in round 2.

    As you said, the setup of the league being drafted weighs heavily into whether taking a WR first is correct or not. In leagues that only start 2 WR every week, I would certainly recommend against going WR-WR. On the flip-side, in leagues that start the same number of RB-WR, I don’t think there’s anything wrong with it. Also, the WR-WR strategy makes more sense to me in a 10-team league than a 12-team league because fewer teams means a better chance to land two of the top-5 receivers. With 12 teams, a more balanced approach is more necessary and I’d rather have an RB and a WR in some order with my first two picks (again, assuming the same number of starting RBs and WRs).

    In the end, it truly does come down to knowing your leagues settings and the tendencies of your leaguemates. The crux of my argument is that I’ve found that my average fantasy football opponents tend to overvalue tier-2 players and undervalue tier-3 and tier-4 players in the draft (particularly RBs). I believe taking a tier-1 WR in the first round sets me up to exploit those biases in the subsequent rounds.

  23. gregsauce says:
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    @Gary Bajillion: With all that said, I might have to play my “agree to disagree” card from here on out. As much as I’d like to continue arguing AJ vs. Mendy (12.6 ppg vs. 12.7 ppg in 2010), I need to start working on my Round 2 submission. Thanks for the discussion and the feedback.

  24. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Uncle MOwglie:

    Tom Brady, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Lesean McCoy

    The 5th is really tough here. With a 2 QB league I doubt you’ll get to draft a top 10 QB like Schaub, but you know your league better than me. If you think your 2nd QB would be a big step down I’d go with Schaub. If not I’d probably go with DJax.

  25. Gary Bajillion says:
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    @UncleMo

    That looks like a sweet team. Really tough not to keep two of those WR in a 3WR/2RB league, but you have to keep the two QBs, and Foster and Shady are studs.

    I assume you can’t trade prior to the draft, but if you can, you’d think there would be major interest in DeSean and Dez. If you could package them with Schaub for Aaron Rodgers or something, you would be in insane shape to dominate that league.

  26. Gary Bajillion says:
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    @gregsauce

    Thanks for weighing in with your thoughts. I’m psyched to see more folks joining in as the preseason ramps up and getting some discussion going.

    We’ll agree to disagree. I don’t think it’s easier to get RBs late in the draft. I think in most years, to say it’s easier to take your pick of the upside lower tier guys because 15 RBs are already off the board, is getting a little too cute. And certainly you can point to plenty of WRs that were available late (Nicks, Bowe, Maclin, even Wallace in some leagues).

    My main point is that I hate 2nd Rd RBs. They are mostly guys that could be 1st Rd RBs, except they have major question marks. There’s no need to take such risk with your 2nd pick, but the way to take less risk is to take a WR, because probably 7 of the top 10 guys will be available. For me, there’s a really high chance that a WR is going to be the highest guy on my board in Round 2, which means going WR-WR. I don’t see it as Tier 1 WR/Tier 2 RB vs Tier 2 WR/Tier 2 RB, I see it as Tier 1 WR/Tier 3 RB vs Tier 2 WR/Tier 2 RB.

    The fact that there are more committees (whether or not it yields more bargains later in the draft), makes the elite RBs even more valuable. And the fact that there are some big-play receivers that can shoot up the rankings out of nowhere, also inclines me to take WRs late, rather than early.

  27. shippity says:
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    Late to this party.

    Nice article. Unfortunately it reads a little bit more like a thinly veiled brag than a helpful strategy post. I mean it’s a nice case study on your particular league because it worked in that one scenario. However, you need to show why a strategy like this is robust beyond that one league in that particular year, and how you would plan to implement it going forward.

    I went WR-WR for the first time ever myself last year and it paid off, but that doesn’t mean I support it as a long term viable strategy. You say that JC and AR could be had later in the draft. Maybe ADP supports that (I see 3.3, 3.12 on ffc), but what happens when they go 3.4 and 3.5, like they did in one of my leagues. I’m not proposing to use one unique scenario to discredit another, I’m just saying that a strategy needs to be robust enough to account for not everything going perfectly. If you’re in a league where they could have been had much later, then I would say you almost need to be drafting blindly for value, because you’re playing with unsophisticated owners.

    Furthermore, you need to talk about who those backs you can reliably snag in the 3rd+ rounds are this year. You need to show why last year wasn’t unique in that there were value backs available that we could be highly confident in. Show that this is indicative of most years, then mention who they are this year. It’s a lot easier after the season is over to cherry pick them. I can probably come up with a bunch of nonsense strategies in retrospect with the knowledge of last years results.

    Cheers.

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