This is Part Deux of Predicting the Top 10 for 2017. For the running back series, click here.
My primary motivation for the running back piece was due to the proliferation of the “Zero RB” drafting strategy. The basic premise of this strategy is that running backs are too risky due to injury and usage (RBBC). Was there a way to mitigate the risk or identify trends from history that could assist with choosing the right running back?
The “Zero RB” strategy advocates drafting wide receivers. “The wide receiver gets more projected points when you adjust projections for risk.” If that’s the case, then ADP for wide receivers should be able to predict the final top 10 at a much higher rate than for running backs, right?
Going back 12 years, though, that just hasn’t been the case. Here’s a look of the percentage of top 10 ADP WRs that finished the season in the top 10, per season.
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