Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 9:
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $927 (Last week: +$47)
Record 27-28-1 (Last week: 4-2-0)
Locks: 3-5-1 (Last week: 0-1-0)
Hey look, another winning week! A game below .500! Another good week and I’ll be back into positive numbers. And a bunch of my picks this week fade Zorboss, so that’s pretty nifty. I’m going to ride the same trend I have been for the past couple of weeks: let the computer do the heavy lifting and then just filter out the usual bits myself, kind of like when Picard let Data pilot the Enterprise-D (no bloody A, B, or C). I’m also going back to my comfort zone and taking almost all home teams this week. Dorothy said it best: There’s no place like home (of course, she could have said that right in the beginning and that movie gets a lot more boring…)
$40 Philadelphia -3.5 vs. The Team from Washington: Even Michael Vick has come to the realization this is no longer his team, as Nick Foles has started to show some of the potential Andy Reid saw in him back in the day. In case you haven’t noticed, that’s the same guy who’s coaching the 9-0 Chiefs right now. Are the Eagles as good as their past two performances? Absolutely not. Are they good enough to cover a small spread at home against that Washington team? They sure as hell are.
$40 Miami +1 vs. San Diego: This is one of those games I love. Mostly because nobody loves Miami after their loss to Tampa Bay and the early-season bandwagon has seen all its passengers strain their muscles jumping off. In betting terms, this opens up a window of opportunity to take a reeling Dolphins squad in their bounce-back game. You’re not really going to sit there and tell me you’re impressed by the Chargers are you?
$30 Tennessee +3 vs. Indianapolis: Same exact concept as the game above, except you get the home dog on Thursday Night Football with the points. Does Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the offense scare me? Only as much as The Village did. Sure, it’s a little uncomfortable at parts, but you’re never really scared. He’ll seem pretty competent against a mostly lackluster Indianpolis defense.
$30 Cincinnati -5.5 vs. Cleveland: Do you notice a trend here? Otherwise well-regarded team coming off a road loss giving up fewer points than they should be. Cleveland has shown promise, but their running game is poor enough that I think Cincinnati’s superior pass defense will really have an opportunity to shine. Sign me up for three turnovers with one returned for a touchdown in what could very easily be a Bengals rout.
$30 Buffalo PK vs. New York Jets: Seriously, contrarian is where the money is at. Buffalo comes off a poor showing on the road against Pittsburgh and now gets to face a Jets team that’s struggled away from home all season. There’s still absolutely nothing about the Jets that inspires you, as with the Bills, so I’d pretty much be taking the home team where ever this one is played. That just so happens to be in the stadium of that team that actually plays in New York State (which those of us who live Upstate – we do exist – will be happy to tell you).
$10 Green Bay +5 at New York Giants: I don’t care which backup quarterback starts. This is still too many points. The Giants, despite their winning streak, are still not good.
Total wagered: $180
Recommended you avoid: Houston vs. Oakland, Chicago vs. Baltimore, Detroit at Pittsburgh, New England at Carolina.
Bankroll: $288 (last week -$155)
Record: 15-27 (last week 1-4)
Locks: 2-8 (last week 0-1)
My Locks this year have been as bad as Johnny Lawrence from Cobra Kai. Take away my Locks and I’d be a respectable bad dude like Wolf Stansson from Mighty Ducks 2; I’ve always wanted to live in Iceland. I have lost many bets and I’ve been on many losing streaks, but this year has been the deepest war wound yet. I still haven’t received the coup de grace from any bookie, so the war continues. It’s hard walking away from a winning streak; it’s even harder to walk away from a losing one. If you are afraid of losing your money then you shouldn’t be making any bets. I’m not about to curtail my betting patterns for fear of more debt. In fact, I’m going to amplify the stakes and bet the remainder of my moola. The greatest risk is not taking one! The only thing I will remove this week is my lock.
$50 Indianapolis -3 at Tennessee: Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at the helm for the Titans and it couldn’t come at a more perfect time. The Colts just got their horseshoes handed to them last week by the Rams, making this line more favourable than it should have been. I noticed this from the week 10 games: the look of disgust and anger on Andrew Luck’s face, not playing up to his ability, and being bullied by the Rams at home was a very serious matter versus Tony Romo’s complete disinterest about the game he was playing in and looking forward to his bye week vacation. Give me passion over contentment any day of the week, but especially on Thursdays. Colts 27 Titans 20.
$50 Chicago -3 vs. Baltimore: The Ravens do not travel well and the Bears have a respectable home field advantage; losing to the Saints and Lions at home in close encounters counts as positive performances. No hail mary needed in this game as the Bears will gladly dink and dunk their way to a comfortable victory. Bears 27 Ravens 17.
$50 Arizona -7 at Jacksonville: The Cardinals gave me my only win last week, so I’m going to keep riding the ever dangerous and destructive Carson Palmer until he, well, implodes. Cardinals 24 Jaguars 13.
$50 San Diego -1 at Miami: Sand and surf, Cubans and Mexicans, shopping, fine dining and golf: this seems like another home game for the Chargers. The only difference between the two teams is that San Diego has a real shot at making the AFC playoffs. Chargers 27 Dolphins 17.
$50 New Orleans -3 vs. San Francisco: I should have never bet against the Brees and Payton at home combo last week. Lesson learned. Saints 34 49ers 20.
$30 Cleveland +5.5 at Cincinnati: I have never seen so many suspect players at the Quarterback position in one NFL season. One player who has fooled the masses into thinking he is not a suspect is Andy Dalton. I thought Dalton’s performance last week was atrocious, and I thank the hail mary conversion at the end of the game as it keeps him and the Bengals looking like contenders. The Browns have already beaten the Bengals once this year and a sweep of the season series is not far behind. Browns 24 Bengals 21.
Total Wagered: $280