Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 13:
SPECIAL NOTE FOR WEEK 14: As of Thursday morning, the Green Bay-Atlanta game is still off the board. As a result, I will be canceling (pushing) any bets made on this game prior to the Packers naming their starting quarterback. What constitutes Green Bay actually naming their starting QB and when it happens will be a subjective call, but assume it’s something like “Multiple media reports all confirm the same starting QB.” If you try to sneak in some zany line before that, it’s probably not going to count. But you can make picks at any time up until kickoff, as normal, once a line is released.
Josh Carey’s Picks:
Bankroll: $1,090 (Last week: -$9)
Record 35-34-2 (Last week: 2-3-0)
Locks: 5-5-1 (Last week: 1-0-0)
Last week was one of those weeks where I was cursing the gambling Gods. Three games lost by a total of 2.5 points. Suffice it to say, I was less than pleased. But any time you can go 2-3 and lose less than $10, it means you’re doing something right with your betting. That being said, I am less confident in this week’s slate than a virgin on prom night, so the bets are once again small and the Bluth family is over there doing some strange chicken dances, but I don’t care. Caution is good.
$40 Seattle +2.5 at San Francisco: I’ve been one of the biggest doubters of Seattle on the road in recent years, but this looks like the sort of Seahawks team that might be just plain good – no matter where the games are played. The 49ers are favored by virtue of being at home and having a bit of solid play going of late. Yet, the line is still one that says “Seattle is a better all around football team” (the standings say the same thing, by the way). When you can grab the better team with points, you should do that.
$40 Jacksonville +3.5 vs. Houston: Pop quiz: Which of these teams has the better record right now? If you haven’t been paying attention much recently, you’d think Houston. And you’d be wrong. It’s like a replacement official is making this line because the Jaguars are being penalized for their early-season futility while Houston’s more recent downturn is ignored. This is a game Jacksonville should actually be favored in, so getting more than a field goal back is kind of insane. In fact, I just upped my bet $10 after writing this, that’s how sound I this this pick is. Plus, you’re going to watch this crapfest of a game anyways. You might as well have something riding on it, right?
$20 Kansas City -3 at Washington: Yes, the Chiefs are on a three game losing streak. Two of those losses are to Denver, who you might have heard is kind of good this season. Nothing is going right for Washington recently and the Giants created the blueprint for how to beat them (stop Alfred Morris). Andy Reid was surely paying attention. At least a push here should be expected.
$20 Tampa Bay -2.5 vs. Buffalo: I don’t know. This is what the numbers say. They both suck, I have no idea what’s going on here. Why do you have to keep pestering me for information and logic? Sometimes I’m just making picks, just like anyone else. Get off my back already!
$10 New England -11.5 vs. Cleveland: Josh Gordon is good, but his quarterback still isn’t and New England is better at pretty much everything that isn’t directly Gordon related. But, I’m a coward, so this bet is for the minimum. Hey, you shouldn’t like dropping double digit lines in the NFL, either.
Total wagered: $130
Bankroll: $121 (last week +$4!)
Record: 20-35-3 (last week 3-3)
Locks: 2-9 (last week 0-1)
$60 Denver -11 vs. Tennessee: With the fight for the last few playoff spots going on every week, let’s not forget about the battle for home field advantage throughout the entire post season. Denver has the chance to stay at home and avoid all travel issues come January if they win out. After sweeping the series versus their rivals Kansas City, the road ahead looks open and the pedal will be hitting the metal in Denver. You may see Denver in here a few more times before the season comes to a close. I’m craving some Papa John’s Pizza with a side order of wings. Broncos 41 Titans 17.
$40 Green Bay -? vs. Atlanta: There is no line for this game but I don’t care, I’m taking the Packers minus any amount of points. If Aaron Rodgers comes back for this game I’m stoked at laying 10 points, and if Matt Flynn controls the cheese grader again this week, I’m okay with this bet as well. A lot has been made about dome teams having trouble when they play outdoors in a cool, turbulent and incalculable environment. I think bad dome teams have this issue and the Falcons are one of the premiere bad dome teams. Atlanta lucked out last week with a road game in a neutral field dome, while the usual Buffalo weather called for snow, beer and more snow, but this week they must handle the Green Bay weather of snow, rain and frozen tundra. I’m craving cheese and crackers. Packers 31 Falcons 17.
$10 New Orleans -3 (LOCK) vs. Carolina: You know my locks of the week are technically still locks because they are assured to lose. Ladies and gents an 81% conversion rate if you follow the antonym to my synonymous locks. The Saints got embarrassed last week up in Seattle, ending the day with one of their worst performances in a very long time. Do they fall into the dome teams not being able to handle the elements, or were they looking ahead to the more important division matchup with the Panthers? A little from column A and a little from column B, if I had to guess. New Orleans is 6-0 at home this year and is a good bet to make it to 7-0 if I hadn’t made them my lock of the week. I’m craving bourbon and a big easy win. Saints 31 Panthers 17.
Total Wagered: $120