Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 14:
Can’t see the spreadsheet? Click here.
Josh Carey’s Picks:
Bankroll: $1,188 (Last week: +$98)
Record 39-35-2 (Last week: 4-1-0)
Locks: 5-5-1 (Last week: 0-0-0)
$50 Indianapolis -5.5 vs. Houston (Lock of the week): You know what’s crazy? My numbers say the Colts should be 18 point favorites in this game. It’s not like we’re even talking about Indianapolis travelling to Houston. They’re at home! The Colts have been inconsistent this season, sure. But facing a Texans team with Wade Phillips as the coach, at home, should be easier than beating Glass Joe in Punch Out (who seriously has his own Wikipedia article). You could beat Glass Joe every time, right? Well, unless you were drunk. Man, trying to play Punch Out when you’re drunk…
Take the Colts.
$50 Jacksonville +1 vs. Buffalo: Another case where a team I’m not thrilled about (the Jaguars) hosts a team that’s even worse. Let’s think that one through for a second. Jacksonville looked like one of the all-time bad teams en route to an 0-8 start this season. But how much are they still being punished for that even after rattling off four wins in their last five? Almost a touchdown’s worth of punishment, by my math. And yes, those Jacksonville wins came against uninspiring opponents (Houston twice, the Browns, the Titans), but Buffalo has an identical record, just lost to Tampa Bay last week, and has exactly one road win in seven tries (if you count Toronto as an away game, which I do). And this is the team that’s a road favorite? That’s sillier than Rebecca Black releasing a new single.
$40 Kansas City -4.5 at Oakland: Maybe I just like Alex Smith. Much like how I rode the 49ers to some strong winnings last year, the Chiefs seem to be my horse this year (I suppose it helps that I was viewing them as a Wild Card preseason based on their six Pro Bowlers, new coach, and new QB). I still think those two Denver losses are deflating the lines with Kansas City, which means this is one again another bargain. Frankly, I’d probably take this game at anything up to 6.5 points.
$20 Miami +2 vs. New England: I was going to bet more on this game. However, Zorboss got his picks in before me this week and I could see it was on his docket. Maybe it’s the one game he gets right this week, but that worries me a lot.
Total wagered: $160
Bonus! Games my system says to avoid this week: Denver-San Diego/Carolina-Jets (Math says Broncos/Panthers to cover, but you shouldn’t lay that many points), Philadelphia-Minnesota/San Francisco-Tampa Bay/Arizona-Tennessee/Baltimore-Detroit (The numbers say the spread is spot on), Atlanta-Washington (I have no idea what to do with Kirk Cousins starting).
Bankroll: $134 (last week +$13)
Record: 22-37-3 (last week 2-2)
Locks: 3-9 (last week 1-0)
$30 Philadelphia -4.5 at Minnesota: Another positive result last week and my winning percentage has climbed slightly closer to Cliffhangers’ approval rating; Gabe is hanging onto my gambling year just a little bit longer. They probably could have filmed a scene from the new movie ‘Cliffhanger 2: Snow Job’ last week in the storm that hit Philadelphia – Rocky Balboa (Stallone), represented by his lawyer Andrew Beckett (Hanks), fight the evil ski resort mogul Dan Snyder (Denzel) in a battle to uncover the damage/cover up created by the synthetic snow, its injuries to Balboa’s son Rocky Jr. (Macaulay Culkin – it’ll be a holiday movie) and other unsuspecting citizens. Anyways, without Adrian Peterson the Vikings stand no chance to compete with the red hot Eagles. Eagles 34 Vikings 21.
$30 Chicago PK at Cleveland: If somebody created a manual outlining the steps to the ‘Art of Tanking’, the Browns 2013 season will be the perfect mould; entertaining enough for fans to enjoy, then mishandle a fistful of plays down the stretch, within the framework of the game, to avoid scrutiny from the football integrity committee. I’m sure this ethical group exists behind closed doors. Chicago needs to keep winning and they have plenty of offensive pieces to help guide Cleveland to another calculated result. Bears 27 Browns 17.
$30 Arizona -3 at Tennessee: It’s time I get back on the Ryan Fitzpatrick bashing wagon. In his last two games he has completed roughly 55% of his passes, throwing a total of two TD passes, with 187 yards passing average and five turnovers. Sounds like the perfect recipe for Arizona’s defense to continue the season for a lot of fantasy playoff teams. The Cardinals last four losses: at Philadelphia, home to Seattle, at San Francisco, at New Orleans. Throw in eight wins and that isn’t a shabby record. Cardinals 28 Titans 17.
$30 New Orleans -6 at St. Louis: Road dome! Saints 31 Rams 17.
$10 Miami +2 vs. New England: I’ve probably been guilty of not taking enough chances on dogs this year and predicting outright upsets. I’m usually too afraid to lose most of my money on risky picks and I would rather keep it simple with good teams to steady my bankroll… oh wait, never mind! New England could have easily lost their last three games and I’m predicting they will start a deserved losing streak. Miami played New England well in Foxboro and if it wasn’t for some poor late execution and some batty referee calls, they could have easily walked away with a stress free win. With more injuries hitting New England, the time is right for some execution, hometown penalty calls, and the filming of ‘Ace Ventura 3: Snowflake’s Revenge.’ Dolphins 27 Patriots 24.
Total Wagered: $130