Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 16:
Can’t see the spreadsheet? Click here.
Also, we’ll be back next Friday with a season-long recap and the opening of our playoff contest. The rules are a little different, but will look very familiar to those of you who played along last year.
Josh Carey’s Picks:
Bankroll: $1,290 (Last week: +$53)
Record 46-37-2 (Last week: 4-1-0)
Locks: 7-5-1 (Last week: 1-0-0)
Here it is, the minefield that is betting on Week 17 football. For the third straight year (second on Razzball), I am hitting over 54% of my bets and showing a profit. To see how challenging this can be, you need only look at the 36 of the 49 participants in our contest this season who can not currently say the same thing. So yes, I’m going to be more chicken shit than than the studio executives who didn’t tell George Lucas to completely re-do The Phantom Menace and keep my wagers this week under my profit margin. There’s also that whole thing where nobody really knows what’s going on in Week 17 (even with the Chiefs), so I maintain a conservative approach is best this week. Those of you with lesser bankrolls may, understandably, feel differently.
$50 Carolina -5.5 at Atlanta: A road win over an Atlanta team with nothing to play for and Carolina clinches a first round bye in the NFC playoffs.So they’ve got that “something to play for” stuff down pat for Week 17. I do have concerns about such a defensive-minded team securing enough of a victory to cover here, but the math says I’m getting over a field goal in value on this spread. Value is good. It’s how you make money.
$40 Miami -5.5 vs. New York Jets: How could I pass up what could potentially be my last opportunity ever (please let it be my last opportunity ever) to bet against Rex Ryan’s Jets on the road? In case you’ve forgotten, Rexy’s team has won just one game outside of New Jersey this year. Only Minnesota can claim a worse mark in the NFL this season. And once again, we have a team with something to play for against a team with nothing to play for. I’d always rather have “something” over “nothing.”
(Cue the comments asking if I’d really rather have a Knuckle Sandwich over “nothing” in 3… 2…. 1…)
Total wagered: $130
Bankroll: $76 (last week -$34)
Record: 27-43-4 (last week 3-4-0)
Locks: 3-9 (last week 0-0)
(Ed’s note: I received the following e-mail from Zorboss early Thursday morning)
“Here are my quick picks for week 17:
Sitting here without power for the soon to be fifth day in a row, I will list my picks quicker than the Jim Schwartz firing after Sundays game.
$20 Philadelphia -6
$20 Green Bay -/+ ? (Ed’s note: The man has no power: We’ll let him get away with this.)
$20 Baltimore +6
$10 Miami -5.5
Sent from my mobile and cellular communications contraption”
Total wagered: $70