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Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:

  • You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
  • You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
  • Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
  • You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
  • Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
  • New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
  • New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.

Standings After Week 4

 

Josh Carey’s Picks

Bankroll: $1,056 (-$64)
Record: 10-9-1 (Last week: 1-3-0)
Locks: 2-1-1 (Last week: 0-1-0)

Finally, a losing week! I was pretty much asking for it when I went on bragging about how I’d had three consecutive winning weeks to begin the season. So it’s really no surprise. That’s how karma works after all. So, I’ll just keep rolling with the punches, leave it all behind. These highway signs are a sign of the times. Still, it’s all about the process – and all of my losses were by a single possession last week. So please, keep paying attention to what I write. I’m begging you! Or just wait for the Cray guy to show up and makes his picks in the comments. He’s on fire. They’ll probably can me and bring him on to write this next year the way things are going right now…

$50 Atlanta Falcons -9.5 vs. New York Jets (LOCK OF THE WEEK): The Jets are so bad they were considering color-coding their playbook so their inept rookie quarterback would know when it was okay to try and throw an interception. They didn’t, so we’re just going to have to assume he has clearance to try and throw an interception on every passing play still. Of course, with both Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill expected to miss this game, Mike Goodson (recently un-suspended) is probably going to be his top target. Let’s think about that considering the fact the opponent will be a team that hung with the Patriots last week. Any frequent reader of Bet the Farm knows I usually shy away from spreads this large, but man, the Jets are just bad. Far worse than their record would indicate.

$40 Miami -2.5 vs. Baltimore: I’m working on a theory here. That theory mostly amounts to “I don’t think the Ravens are very good this year.” Joe Flacco got a huge payday, which means they couldn’t afford anybody for him to throw to. Ray Rice looks almost as pedestrian as Maurice Jones-Drew and the loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed seems to have really taken a toll on the defense, too. I’ve been a supporter of the Dolphins pretty much all season long at this point and I’m mostly going to give them a pass for a road loss against New Orleans. The Saints, after all, are likely the second-best team in the league (That’s right, I said it. Come at me, Seahawks fans). So, can the Dolphins cover a field goal at home against a team that looks very little like the one that won the Super Bowl last year? Yes, I think they can.

$30 New England (PK) at Cincinnati: New England is 4-0 with a +32 point differential (+8 PPG, for the mathematically challenged). Cincinnati is 2-2, with an even point differential and just lost to Cleveland last week! Cleveland!

$30 Cleveland -3.5 vs. Buffalo: All right, maybe the Browns aren’t all that bad after all. This Hoyer guy looks pretty good. It’s possible Trent Richardson was just another expendable NFL running back. And even when Buffalo has been winning (or close to it), they have looked not at all effective while doing so. Thursday Night Football favors the home team, so go ahead and lay the points.

$20 Houston at San Francisco OVER 41.5: This is a number Houston has covered in 75% of their games this year, and San Francisco in 50% of theirs. In all three cases where their games hit the under, one team’s offense didn’t show up at all, turning the game into a blowout. So, all we need to see this game hit the over is for everybody to play a solid, average game. Or for Matt Schaub to throw two pick-6s this week. Either works.

Total wagered: $170

Follow @josh_carey on Twitter for updated picks as the weekend approaches, and Josh’s full picks for every single game against the spread. Please.

Zorboss’ Picks

Bankroll: $713 (last week -$28)
Record: 6-12 (2-2 last week)
Locks: 0-4 (0-1 last week)

I don’t know if my judgement is clouded after being on the road for too long, but I like a lot of road teams this week. And by a lot, I mean all of them (Bills +4, Jags +11.5, KC -2.5, Philly +1, Ravens +3, Seahawks -2.5, Lions +7, Pats PK, Saints PK, Panthers -1.5, Peyton -7.5, Texans +7, and Chargers -4)! Scary, I know. To be fair, I do tend to bet more road teams then the average better (maybe my road trips do have an effect on me), but this week scares the crap out of me. I’m just sticking to the two games I like and calling it a week.

$80 Kansas City -2.5 (Lock) at Tennessee: After travelling for 10 days, driving 5400 kilometres (3355 miles for you folks south of the 49th parallel, eh), and riding on any and all surfaces imaginable, I can safely say that all roads/teams are not travelled equally. The Kansas City Chiefs just took apart the NFC East division by allowing a combined 39 points against in three games; vs. quarterbacks Eli Manning, Michael Vick, and Tony Romo. Granted, these three elite QBs have not been playing the best football in 2013, but three games in a row is no fluke. They leave the comfort and fanatical support of Arrowhead and travel 549 miles (883 kilometres for us folk north of the border, okay) to take on Ryan Fitzpatrick. The injury to Jake Locker is a significant one as he was playing well for Tennessee to start the season by managing the games well and not turning the ball over. Fitzpatrick in three years at Buffalo turned the ball over 20, 26, and 22 times in 45 games. The Chiefs have forced 12 turnovers in four games and gladly add the Harvard quarterback to their season long equation. Chiefs 27 Titans 13.

$80 Carolina -1.5 at Arizona: We are starting to enter the bye week zone in the NFL, leading to some difficult matchups for some teams and advantageous moments for others. Since 2001, teams off a bye had a winning percentage against the spread of 54 percent. Not only do the Panthers have two weeks of rest behind them but they’ve been playing some good football in the previous three weeks as well. Arizona needed two interception return TDs to win both of their games this year. I feel strong enough about this game to list it as a lock of the automotive club variety or mobile phone lock screen display (not the titanium padlock with iron chains variety listed above because have you seen my record ?!).  Panthers 24 Cardinals 17.

$40 New Orleans at Chicago Over 48.5: Finally, an over! I’d like to thank Josh for giving us that last little motivation to push us over the top. Please, feel free to keep pushing us from down under. We all know the team New Orleans possesses, but are the Bears who we think they are? Good defense, you say? The Bears have allowed 21, 30, 23 and 40 points against in their first four games to start the season. They have combated those points against with 24, 31, 40 and 32 points, leading them to their 3-1 start. Again, I still believe any number under 50 for a Saints game is valuable. Saints 31 Bears 24.

Total Wagered:$200

  1. Cram It says:
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    $200 New Orleans (Pick)
    $100 Philly +3
    $50 New England (Pick)

  2. attgig says:
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    $50 Chiefs -2.5
    $50 Patriots PK
    $50 Falcons -9.5
    $50 Saints PK
    $50 Eagles +3

  3. charlie_hu$tle says:
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    $1000 Seahawks -2.5

  4. TheTinDoor says:
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    $50: Philly +3 over NYGiants
    $100: New England +1 over Cincy
    $50: Carolina -1.5 over Arizona

    • TheTinDoor says:
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      @TheTinDoor: I’m gonna throw $50 on the Jaguars +12.5 too. This is the week.

  5. Furious says:
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    Bankroll: $1200

    $600 – Chiefs-Titans U39 (Bovada)
    $100 – Bengals PK
    $100 – Bears +1 (Bovada)
    $100 – Cardinals +2 (Bovada)
    $100 – Raiders +4.5 (Sportsbetting.ag)

  6. Cray says:
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    lol variance. Thanks for the kind words regardless.

    $500 KC -2.5 (5dimes)

    Just the one so far, although zorboss locking them does have me worried.

  7. willy says:
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    $240.00 Bills @ Browns uner 41
    $160.00 Giants -1
    $160.00 Dolphins -2.5
    $200.00 Panthers -1.5
    $200.00 Chargers @ Raiders over 45
    Bankroll $960, betting $960… do or die!

  8. CWebb says:
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    $105 Cowboys (+9) Over Broncos

  9. FIFA81 says:
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    Bankroll: $1163 (last week: 3 – 2)
    Record: 3 – 2 (last week: 3 – 2)
    Locks: 0 – 1 (last week: 0 – 1)

    Buffalo @ Cleveland: Under 41: $150
    Philadelphia @ New York: Under 53: $100

    Denver (-8.5) @ Dallas: $50
    Carolina @ Arizona (+1.5): $250 [Lock]
    Jacksonville (+12.5) @ St. Louis:$150

    Total Wager for Week :$700

  10. Detective Kimball says:
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    $100 – Patriots (Pk)
    $200 – Panthers (-1.5)
    $100 – Jets (10.5)

  11. Detective Kimball says:
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    $500 – Eagles (+3)

  12. Euroalien says:
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    Bears +1.5 $50
    Broncos -7 $50
    Colts +1.5 $50

  13. Edgecrusher says:
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    All bets as of 1:00PM 10/4/13

    $100- Chiefs -1 (5dimes)
    $100- Eagles PK (5dimes)
    $100- Seahawks -1 (Sportsbetting.ag)
    $100- Broncos -7 (Sportsbetting.ag)
    $100- Saints Pk (5dimes)

  14. Euroalien says:
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    Forgot one……..

    Chargers -4.5 $50

  15. sumit says:
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    $1000 on SD at Oak over

    • sumit says:
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      @sumit:
      i think its listed at 44.5

  16. Heraldo says:
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    $330 – New England Patriots OVER Cincinnati Bengals (PK)

  17. Phil says:
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    Dallas + 7 $100

  18. DC4Life says:
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    Miami/Baltimore Over 43 $40
    Detroit +9 $30
    New Orleans Pick $50
    Carolina/Arizona Over 41.5 $20
    San Francisco -6 $30

  19. Frank says:
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    Bankroll $1201
    Dolphins -1 $180
    Chiefs -1 $180
    Seahawks -1 $180

  20. Darth Ripken says:
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    Bankroll 1017

    SEA -1 at IND (40)
    DET +7.5 at GB (30)
    DEN -7 at DAL (40)
    PHI +3 at NYG (30)
    KC -2.5 at TEN (40)
    MIA -2.5 vs BAL (30)

  21. mdig66 says:
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    Bank = $575.00

    Giants -2 (5Dimes) $150
    Jacksonville +11.5 (Bovada) $150

  22. Matt H says:
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    Bankroll: $750

    220 for 200 on Green Bay -7.5
    110 for 100 on Miami -2.5

  23. PoPo Gigio says:
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    Lets do this

    Broncos Over 56 for $200
    Packers -7.5 for $200
    Eagles Over 53 for $200

    I’ll be back for the 11:30 game
    Good luck all

  24. henncoop says:
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    bankroll = $895 did not play last week but made a bit in r/l …thanks mostly to you guys

    70 KC -3
    50 Mia -2.5
    50 New Eng -2
    40 New Orleans -1
    50 Car -3
    20 GB –10 ( was much lower but that is current)
    30 Over 54 GB/Det
    30 Over 52 NO/Chi
    40 Under 43 Mia/Balt
    30 Under 38.5.KC/ Tenn

  25. Old York Giants says:
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    Kansas City -2.5 $200
    Patriots pk $200

  26. PoPo Gigio says:
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    Sunday Night Specials

    Niners -4.5 for $200
    Raiders +6 for $200

    Lets do this

  27. Bertchr22 says:
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    Last second picks, finally had time.

    Chargers -5.5 for $210
    Falcons -9.5 for $210
    Chargers and Raiders over 46 for $110
    Jets and Falcons over 44 for $110

  28. henncoop says:
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    adding $70 Atl -9.5 ( 5 dimes)

Comments are closed.