Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 8:
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $780 (Last week: -$36)
Record 18-24-1 (Last week: 2-3-0)
Locks: 2-4-1 (Last week: 0-0-0)
I suck. I suck so much. I suck I suck I suck I suck I suck. Here are my picks.
$50 Carolina -7.5 vs. Atlanta (Lock of the week): I’ve now been losing for most of the season. In fact, most of the “sharps” have had a rough go of it this year. The sorts of things we typically do – like taking huge underdogs – haven’t been panning out. And taking a Caroline team I’m pretty sure I feel “meh” about to cover more than a touchdown against a preseason Super Bowl favorite still feels wrong. Like, really wrong. But here it is, my lock of the week. Why? Because the mathheads say this is actually even still a bargain and point differential. Carolina’s is +74, Atlanta’s -18. That alone would be worth a 12 point spread. Okay Atlanta, prove you’re really this bad.
$40 Indianapolis -2.5 at Houston: If you’ve been reading Bet the Farm all year long, you know I am not the biggest fan of the Andre Luck-led Colts. And I still maintain they have some serious inconsistencies. Losses to Miami and San Diego are less than inspiring, especially when combined with that escape-artist win in Week One against the Raiders. But we’re going to have to give some legitimacy to those wins against the 49ers, Seahawks, and Broncos, too. The Texans are a mess which might not only have no passing game, but no running game, either Sunday. Honestly, this could be a blowout, much less a three point cover.
$40 San Diego -1 at Washington: Do I really have to give a reason on this one, like “How is a 4-3 team only giving up one point to a 2-5 team?” Or can we just chalk this one up to “Dan Synder is racist and his team losing is karma?”
$40 Kansas City -3 at Buffalo: I almost never pick as my favorites as I do this week and this very well might be a record for road favorites on my ledger. But Kansas City is a very legitimate 8-0 (only Denver has a better point differential) and Buffalo looks to be starting some guy named Tuel at quarterback. Or maybe Thad Lewis. Or Matt Flynn. Look, whoever it is is terrible. And is going against the league’s top defense. I’m confident the Chiefs can cover this one even if Jamaal Charles is dinged up.
$40 Miami +3 vs. Cincinnati: Looks, old habits die hard. And home underdogs (on Thursday night even!) are one of my oldest habits. But seriously, Jeff Sagarin told me to make this bet (well, his numbers did), so I must.
$40 Green Bay -10.5 vs. Chicago: Josh McCown was an upgrade over Jay Cutler on Sunday, and maybe even RGIII if you want to get technical, but that doesn’t mean he can put up a fight in the Frozen Tundra on Monday Night. The Bears are just 1-2 on the road this season, while Green Bay has yet to lose at Lambeau and is riding a four-game winning streak. Only laying ten and a half is probably generous.
$30 New England -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh: I’m not ready to give up on the Patriots, who hold an undefeated mark at Foxboro this year.
Bankroll: $548 (last week -$30)
Record: 13-20 (last week 2-2)
Locks: 2-6 (last week 0-1)
$50 Cincinnati -3 at Miami: In honour of Halloween we are going to make a bunch of bets on road teams, looking to grab a handful of candy and a win before they head back home to wipe off the face paint. This game coming on a short week couldn’t have been played on a better day for the Bengals as they seemingly had a bye week after their dismantling of the Jets before the second quarter last week; a little less fire and ice during the postgame recovery. Miami played their guts out versus New England and are probably still singing the blues. Andy ‘I’ll be sporting the best ginger spice costume ever’ Dalton over Ryan ‘don’t call me Seacrest’ Tannehill. Why isn’t this game being played in Oakland? Boo. Bengals 27 Dolphins 17.
$50 Baltimore -2.5 at Cleveland: I’m here to exact my revenge on Jason Campbell who decided to ruin my lock streak with a respectable performance on the road in Kansas City last week. Let’s chalk it up to the Chiefs not caring one lick about the game as they count down the days until the big division game versus the Broncos. The Browns still have no rushing attack, the Ravens are well rested off a bye, and Campbell is still at quarterback! Baltimore’s last four games have been played within a field goal and this game will no doubt add to the tight games streak; good thing we got this line at 2.5. Ravens 24 Browns 21.
$50 Tennessee -2.5 at St Louis: HOW IN THE WORLD DID THE RAMS, WITH KELLEN CLEMENS AT QUARTERBACK, WITH 95% OF ST. LOUIS AT OR WATCHING THE WORLD SERIES INSTEAD OF THE FIRST MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME IN ST. LOUIS SINCE 2006, ALMOST WIN AGAINST SEATTLE?! Sometimes things just don’t make sense. I will take any team at a reasonable spread over the Rams, every week. Titans 24 Rams 10.
$50 New Orleans -6 (Lock) at New York Jets: Drew Brees + Jimmy Graham = scary. Saints 34 Jets 17.
Total Wagered: $200