Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Ah, back on top after a long absence. It feels good. But no time for gloating, on to the picks.
Bankroll: $1,468 (Last week: +165)
Record: 33-22-1 (Last week: 6-2)
Locks: 8-3-1 (Last week: 1-0)
$50 Jacksonville +6 at Buffalo (LOCK OF THE WEEK): It’s easy to get wrapped up in the past and forget what’s happening in the present. Just ask Marty McFly. So let’s remember that with Chad Henne helming the offense, Jacksonville very little resembles the joke of the football team they were for the first six years of the NFL season. This is the sort of line a computer spits out while having no idea what’s currently happening on the field (Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings, for example, give a spread of Buffalo -7). This is why I try to merge the “stats” and “gut” forms of gambling to find a nice middle ground. Sometimes your gut augments the stats in a nice way to give you a lock of the week
$40 Jacksonville at Buffalo OVER 44: Again, improved Jacksonville offense, but still a poor defense, to go along with Buffalo’s weaker unit, is a recipe for points. Also, yay commas!
$40 Pittsburgh at Baltimore OVER 35: Ignore that game they played two weeks ago where they scored 23 combined. That was in Pittsburgh and featured Byron Leftwich. Last week showed that Charlie Batch is going to score points – for one team or the other. The Ravens are averaging 36.8 points per game at home, a number that drops to 16.5 on the road this year. I don’t think that’s the result of a schedule disparity, either, but rather an excellent reason to expect some points Sunday.
$40 St. Louis Rams +7.5 vs. San Francisco: Didn’t these two teams tie three weeks ago? I understand, fluke, Colin Kaepernick, whatever. It’s a home underdog getting more than a touchdown against a team they just tied. You know what I’m going to do.
$20 Washington +2 vs. New York Giants: Zorboss and I disagree for the second straight week, but that’s what makes this so much fun! But my love for home underdogs is well understood, not to mention my very logical man-crush on Robert Griffin III. Pierre Garcon‘s presence in the offense opens up the unit in a whole different way, a way I think can take out the Giants on Monday Night Football.
Total wagered: $190
So, I went from being the number one ranked gambler in the Razzball universe – receiving my relegation notice on Tuesday – back down to number two on the list. I worked hard and earned my way to the top, but once there, I got caught up in the fame and fortune, had fun with every drug and floozy in town, and thought I could just show up on Saturday to let my natural born talent do its thing. Time to get back on the Rocky IV training regime and retain my belt.
We are entering week 13 in the National Football League and time is ticking on prime gambling opportunity. With so much uncertainty in the last two weeks of the season, especially with a bunch of divisions essentially wrapped up, we need to take advantage of these next few betting cards. Time to read the odds, write down the picks, and hope the arithmetic adds up to a positive sign come Tuesday.
Bankroll: $1372 (last week -$54)
Record: 31-18 (last week 1-3)
Locks: 8-4 (last week 0-1)
$60 Chicago -3.5 (Lock) vs. Seattle: What was I thinking taking Seattle on the road? I wasn’t. Even though they had a seven point lead in the fourth quarter, they still found a way to kindly give the game away. Now they travel for a second week in a row to a Chicago team who is 5-1 at home this year; the lone loss came to Houston when Jay Cutler was nursing his noggin. The Bears should have no problem turning Russell Wilson into a sporting goods product. Bears 31 Seahawks 13.
$60 Tampa Bay +7.5 at Denver: Tampa Bay has lost by one, seven, two, six and seven in their defeats in 2012. The ability to score points both on the ground and through the air allows them to contend every week against any opponent. Denver looked out of sync last week in Kansas City as they were adjusting to the loss of Willis McGahee. I don’t know about you but when you healthy scratch a dude for two months then decide to give him the keys to the Nissan Murano, no good will come of said scenario. Knowshon Moreno will do more damage than repair to the Denver running game. Tampa will keep this game within 750 yards in Mile High. Broncos 31 Bucs 30.
$30 Tampa Bay at Denver OVER 50.5: Both teams can score as shown in Tampa’s 8-3 and Denver’s 7-4 over/under records. Broncos 31 Bucs 30.
$30 Carolina -3 at Kansas City: Cam Newton > any Chiefs quarterback since 1994. Panthers 27 Chiefs 17.
$60 Houston -6.5 at Tennessee: Has there ever been a team to benefit from having 10 days off more than the Houston Texans? Probably, but after playing two overtime games in five days, the rest is well deserved. Houston beat Tennessee soundly back in week four and I think they will beat them again this week very noisily. I guess those two words aren’t synonymous on paper, but you hear what I’m saying. Texans 30 Titans 20.
$30 Jacksonville +6 at Buffalo: The Bills favorited by six points? How? Their four wins have come against Miami, Arizona, Cleveland, and Kansas City. The Jaguars have scored 67 points in the last two weeks with Chad Henne at the helm. Jaguars 24 Bills 21.
$30 New York Jets -4.5 vs. Arizona: Poor Fireman Ed; understandably upset with the organization, personnel, and fans. All he wanted to do was give his heart, soul, and support to a team he loved.He desperately wanted them to win and succeed in the National Football League andall he ever asked for was for them to give it their best shot every Sunday. Now the fire is out and there is no match (fire starter) in sight to start a new one. Oh, wait, what is that? There is a big ball of fire coming to town with five turnovers and zero touchdowns and his name is Ryan Lindley. So there is a match (game) coming to town to light up the hearts of the Jets devotees. Fireman Ed, you are retiring too soon. Jets 24 Cardinals 13.
$30 New York Giants -2 at Washington: In all their games this year, Washington has given up less than 21 points only once and that was to a guy by the name of Nick Foles. Washington ranks second last in pass defense and we know that New York can pass the ball with the best of them. RG3 has covered up the faults of his defense with some spectacular offensive performances. I think both offenses are playing at an equal level, but the difference in defensive ability gives the edge to the Giants. Give me the third Manning, from the notorious Manning family, to beat Robert Griffin the Third. Giants 27 Redskins 24.
$30 New England at Miami Over 51: New England is 9-2 on the over this year and have averaged 33 points a game against Miami in their last 10 meetings. There is a reason why averages became a law and I don’t like breaking rules. Patriot 33 Dolphins 20.
Total Wagered – $360