Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,544 (Last week: +$76)
Record: 37-23-1 (Last week: 4-1)
Locks: 8-4-1 (Last week: 0-1)
Normally, a 4-1 week is something to celebrate, but it’s actually a little embarrassing when the only loss is your so called “lock of the week.” You know, we didn’t even discuss the lock of the week being a thing before we started doing this. I threw in some comment about needing to get a locksmith cause this was my lock of the week for the first week, then we Zorboss joined up in week two, I threw it into the record recap you see above and now I’m forced to do it (almost) every week. I guess I can take solace in the fact that my “locks” still run about a percentage point higher than my overall picks, but that’s like winning the Emmy for Best Reality TV Show. Sure, it’s an Emmy, but do you really feel good about yourself after?
$50 New York Jets at Jacksonville UNDER 38.5 (LOCK OF THE WEEK): Key injuries to Rashard Jennings, Cecil Shorts, and, well Maurice Jones-Drew, if you really want to get into it, will put a damper on the Jags offense this week. And of course Rex Ryan going back to the turnover machine that is Mark Sanchez even has Rex Grossman wondering what he’s doing. The upshot is that you really only have to be worried that the defenses will score enough points to hit the over, since it’s almost certain the offenses won’t.
$50 Houston +3.5 at New England: Look, I understanding everything about the mystique of Tom Brady’s Patriots at Foxboro in December and how, with a lower point differential this season, the Texans are dead men walking into this game. But even USA Today numbers guru Jeff Sagarin (whose rankings are a wonderful gambling resource) says you should be getting a three point spread here. And that’s not considering the defensive pieces the Texans are expecting to get back, or that their point differential might be affected by Gary Kubiak not feeling the need to twist the knife around in teams he’s killed, like some other coaches. I’m nearly as confident in this pick as my lock: The Texans are for real.
$40 Baltimore +2 at Washington: Look, I like Robert Griffin III as much as the next guy, he’s really fun to watch, but are the Redskins as a team really better than the Ravens as a team? Even at home? We’re talking about a 6-6 team being favored over a 9-3 team here. Not to mention, if there was ever a game where home-field advantage would be diminished, it’s in an intrastate rivalry like this one. All the more reason to take the points.
$30 Indianapolis -5 vs. Tennessee: The Titans are bad and their offensive line is banged up, which could mean a long day for Jake Locker and Chris Johnson (though I’m starting the latter in a must-win game in a season-long league this week). This Andrew Luck guy is pretty good, too, and a touchdown victory (or at least two field goals) seems very reasonable.
$30 San Diego at Pittsburgh OVER 39.5: Ben Roethlisberger is back. San Diego is bad. I think it’s possible just Pittsburgh hits the over on this one, though their defense will probably give up a score or two as well.
$20 Kansas City +6.5 at Cleveland: I’m not yet willing to concede that 1) Cleveland is good enough right now to beat anybody by a touchdown, even at home and 2) The emotion that fueled Kansas City to a win last week was a one-time thing. Pop quiz: Name the teams the Browns have beaten by more than six points this season. The answer is “Cincinnati” in October, in a game where they scored a defensive touchdown. Sure, if you think the defense can score again in this one, lay the points. But I’m going to go with probability and take the Chiefs.
Total wagered: $220
Bankroll: $1183 (last week -$189)
Record: 33-25 (last week 2-7)
Locks: 8-5 (last week 0-1)
Well, that sucked. My worst week of gambling in a very long time. It’s true what they say, “that’s the way the cookie crumbles”, and “that’s the way the ball bounces”. I got some good bounces for the first 11 weeks of the season, so it’s only fair that I got Brian Westbrooked by Shonn Greene. Anyways, as more sayings go, “take it with a grain of salt”, “don’t cry over spilt milk”, and “remain cool as a cucumber”.
$40 New Orleans at New York Giants Over 53: The New Orleans Saints, “the apple of my eye”, “my bread and butter”, are back in town this week, and what better way to get back on track then with a bet on the over. Both teams surprisingly had trouble scoring last week but a match against each other, in a non-division game, should solve some of the offensive rust. Drew Brees will make up for his zero touchdown performance last week with a bunch of scores come Sunday. #iwillalwaysbeteverysaintsgameover. Giants 31 Saints 30.
$60 Washington -2 vs. Baltimore: I made the mistake of betting against Robert Griffin last week and I’m not prepared to do it again. I don’t know how this Ravens team lost to Charlie Batch at home. Now they go on the road versus RG3 who is the kobe beef steak compared to the cheesesteak that is CB1. The Redskins are not out of the playoff hunt yet, so be prepared for them to make a run to try and catch the post-season gravy train. Redskins 27 Ravens 20.
$40 Atlanta -3.5 at Carolina: The Falcons are the “cream of the crop” in the NFC. With a win this Sunday they all but secure the road through the Georgia Dome come playoff time. I know external events influenced the Panthers game last week but they still lost to the Chiefs. Atlanta, even with their 11-1 record, have been maimed by the media as a mediocre team. I think they know this and I think they will make a statement game this Sunday to “put some egg on the face” of the pundits. Falcons 41 Panthers 17.
$60 Houston +3.5 at New England: No “chopped liver” teams in this tilt as both teams are the “meat and potatoes” of the AFC. When two good teams play I will take the points all the way to the bank. I’m out of food analogies and locks this week. Texans 27 Patriots 21.
Total Wagered: $200