Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
– You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
– Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
– You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game
– Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
– Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,102 (last week: +$90)
Record: 8-4 (last week: 4-0)
Locks: 2-1 (last week: 1-0)
So, if you’ve been reading this column all year, you know I love home underdogs. That wasn’t just a replacement refs thing either, I love home underdogs like I would love Alison Haislip (Call me Ali!). But a funny thing happened with the replacement refs, as more and more teams won home games, Vegas had to adjust the lines to favor those teams. Now, we’re in a funny spot where games will be played on Sunday with real officials, but the lines were set Monday and Tuesday with the expectation of replacement refs working the games. That means you’re going to see me taking an unusual number of road teams this week, but next week we’ll likely be back to normal. It’s important to keep an eye on league-wide trends like this (and how oddsmakers are responding) if you want to come out ahead.
Remember the tortoise and the hare? There’s an excellent lesson about bankroll management in there. I had a pretty disastrous first week (1-3), but have been able to weather the storm and get positive again because of my low wagers that week. On the other hand, at least one commenter (I won’t name names to protect the innocent) is at $0 after going just 1-2 by virtue of putting his/her entire bankroll on the line twice. We welcome anyone whose bankroll drops to zero to keep making picks and tracking their record in the comments, of course, but this shows the dangers of getting too risky on your wagers. Slow and steady wins the race, my friends! Now, on to the picks.
$40 New York Giants +2 at Philadelphia (LOCK OF THE WEEK): I just don’t get this one. It’s like Keeping Up With the Kardashians – what the heck is going on here? What exactly is more impressive about the Eagles squeaking by the Browns and Ravens and getting blown out by the Cardinals then the Giants destroying the Panthers, handling the Bucs, and narrowly losing to the Cowboys? This has got to be a line overrating the home team and there’s no reason to think the Giants can’t run away with this game. Getting points with it is just crazy.
$30 San Diego +1 at Kansas City: This seems like the 1-2 Chiefs are getting more credit for a win over the (possibly terrible) Saints than Abe Lincoln got for freeing the slaves. Are there people out there who really believe Kansas City is a better team (even at home) than San Diego? The win over the Saints could be the last one the Chiefs get until the end of October…
$30 New Orleans at Green Bay OVER 53: Zorboss has been all over these picks all year, so I’ll let him explain below, since he’s got this one covered.
$20 Cincinnati PK at Jacksonville: And here’s yet another traveling team that merely has to avoid being like Amanda Bynes and actually have some success on the road. Yes, Cincinnati has a porous defense, but it’s not likely Jacksonville’s inept offense can do anything to take advantage. That means an above-average Bengals attack should be able to come out ahead against a middling Jags defense. And what’s that PK line, you ask? That’s a “pick’em” – meaning the line is actually 0 and you can select either team without a spread.
Bankroll: $1030 (last week – $42)
Record: 5-3 (last week 1-3)
Locks: 2-0 (last week 1-0)
$30 New Orleans at Green Bay Over 53: If you have been reading me then you know how bad I think the Saints defense is. They just let Jamaal Charles go off for 288 yards. If you own Aaron Rodgers then you can wipe that sweat off your brow because you have already won the week. Two hundred and eighty eight yards! #iwillbeteverysaintsgameover. Packers 41 Saints 20.
$40 Tampa Bay -1.5 (Lock) vs. Washington: This is my first lock of the week. To carry on with the subject of defenses, the Redskins may have the second worse bunch of stoppers in the league. There is only so much RG3 can do and I think in this game he will be stopped. The Bucs played an admirable game in Dallas last week despite the fact Josh Freeman was, well, Josh Freeman. If you want to learn how to Dougie, this game is for you. Buccaneers 27 Redskins 17.
$40 Cincinnati PK (Lock) at Jacksonville: What a double lock?! Here is the key to go with the combination. You want to learn the secret of how to become an elite NFL wide receiver…learn how to juggle. That’s how A.J. Green done did it. Or you can master all sobriety tests to improve your hand-eye coordination. Seriously now, who can say the alphabet backwards? All I know is that the Jaguars will be working backwards this whole game. Bengals 31 Jaguars 16.
$30 Dallas -3.5 vs. Chicago: I wanted to bring a third lock to the party but I couldn’t fit it on the link. Put this Dallas defense in front of any sporadic quarterback and you can bet they lasso the win with ease. Jay Cutler is the definition of an inconsistent quarterback; his home vs. road appearances are all over the map. It’s like he is a bear at home but a cub on the road. The Cowboys will herd this win very leisurely. Cowboys 23 Bears 10.
$30 New England -4 at Buffalo: Patriots can’t lose three straight can they? Buffalo beating the Chiefs and Browns doesn’t really get my juices flowing. Both Bills running backs will be playing hurt. Plus it’s Buffalo…just when you think they are a competitive team they drop a stinker in the books. Patriots 31 Bills 20.
Now, your turn: What are your picks this week?