Bet the Farm is Razzball’s weekly wagering column. Josh Carey and Zorboss compete against your picks in the comments. The rules?
- You start off with $1,000 (and can start playing along in the comments any time you want – even now)
- Every bet must be an increment of $10 up to your full bankroll ($1,000 or maybe more)
- You can bet on the over/under or spread for any NFL game (Yahoo Sports’ Odds page is a good place to pick your lines)
- Win, add $9 to your total for every $10 bet (you have to beat the rake). Lose, subtract $10. Push, keep it the same.
- Beat us over the entire season and win our admiration (Note: our admiration has a cash value of $0).
Bankroll: $1292 (last week +$133)
Record: 24-12 (last week 4-1)
Locks: 7-2 (last week 1-0)
$40 Denver -4 at Carolina – The only thing better than gambling is betting on a game you are going to attend. And if you have a fantasy player on the team you bet on, then it’s a double rush of awesomeness. And if you happen to have some Papa John’s Pizza before the game, then you are in a state of awesome awesomeness. No wonder Peyton Manning purchased 21 Papa John’s Pizza franchises. I will be at this game and vow to do everything in my power to win this bet. I already ordered the Papa John’s Pizza. Broncos 31 Panthers 18.
$40 Pittsburgh -12 (Lock) vs. Kansas City – I’ve been to many cities and many different NFL games over the last few years. Steelers’ games are easily in the top five for crazy fans combined with 99% jersey attire on game day. And I can’t wait for somebody sitting close to my seat eating a whole bucket of Quaker Steak & Lube chicken wings. Oh yeah, Kansas City is a bad football team too. I will be sitting at Heinz Field hoping for the wing eater and the Steelers to cover. Food comes before money. Steelers 31 Chiefs 14.
$30 New Orleans vs. Atlanta Over 53.5 – Listen New Orleans, get your poor defense on the same page with your rich offense, okay? This is now two straight games in which the under has hit during New Orleans games. Two weeks ago the offense couldn’t score and last week, the defense couldn’t be scored on. This week, I think we get back on the over train as Atlanta will have no problem scoring on New Orleans. #iwillalwaysbeteverysaintsgameover. Falcons 34 Saints 28.
$30 Tampa Bay -3 vs. San Diego – Doug Martin. Bucs 27 Chargers 21.
Total Wagered – $140
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $1,182 (Last week: +$87)
Record: 22-18-1 (Last week: 3-1)
Locks: 6-2-1 (Last week: 1-0)
$50 Seattle -6 vs. New York Jets (LOCK): If you were ranking teams in the NFL right now, how many are you putting behind the Jets? The Jaguars, Chiefs, and Titans seem like locks, sure. But are we convinced the Raiders, Browns, and Bills are worse? Even if they are, we’re still talking about being the 25th best team. A Vikings team that’s better all around got crushed by ten last week at one of the toughest places to play in the entire league. Maybe all of this means this spread is too large and you should fade it, but I still feel reasonably comfortable the Seahawks can push it to at least a touchdown margin. Let’s just say Rex Ryan’s ass should probably feel like it’s on fire considering how hot his seat is.
$50 Houston +1.5 at Chicago: When you have two teams that are roughly equal, you want to take the points. And all the numbers do suggest this is a very equal matchup. Hell, even when you compare the teams against each other player by player you get a remarkably similar picture. There are two keys in my mind that push the Texans ahead. Arian Foster is much, much better than Matt Forte. They’re pretty much not even on the same plane at this point in their respective careers. The other is that Houston, via comments defensive players have made this week, are well aware the Bears passing offense is geared entirely around feeding the ball to Brandon Marshall over and over. It sounds like they’re not afraid to double-cover him every play, which sounds to me like an amazing strategy since they really have nobody else for Jay Cutler to throw to. Speaking of Cutler, you can pretty much expect him to follow up any solid effort like last week’s with a stinker that makes Bears fans pine for Mark Sanchez. The end result all pointing to Houston securing a solid road win outright, much less with the points.
$40 Minnesota +2 vs. Detroit: When you have two teams that are roughly equal, you want to take the points. Especially when you’re getting the home team by doing so. And yes, that first sentence was exactly what I wrote above for Houston and Chicago, but it holds true across the board, not just in a single case. Here we’re looking at two four-loss teams with pretty much even point differentials in a key division matchup. Yes, the Vikings have been trending downward with Christian Ponder looking more and more like Mark Sanchez (I’m not afraid to go to the same joke multiple times in one writeup, clearly) but a visit from the much-maligned Lions secondary could clear that up right away. Plus, I expect Chris Kluwe to have an excellent punting day in recognition of Minnesota voters supporting same-sex marriage this week. Those things are directly correlated, right?
$20 New Orleans +2.5 vs. Atlanta: I love home underdogs like Lindsey Lohan loves meth (allegedly). The Saints are a team trending upwards after some recent victories and the return of interim head coach Joe Vitt. Darren Sproles being out does concern me a bit, but New Orleans has enough talented backs otherwise (and been frustratingly under-utilizing Sproles – a career trend for him) to mitigate that loss. So the question becomes whether or not they can pull off the upset or at least keep it close. I don’t see a compelling reason why not, considering Atlanta is not nearly as good as their record would indicate. Of course, I’m not confident enough to put more than twenty bucks on it, either.
Total wagered: $160
Your turn! What are your picks this week?