Welcome to Bet the Farm, Razzball’s weekly NFL wagering contest. We’re back for our second season and ready to take you on over the course of 17 weeks of NFL play. For those new to the game, here are the rules:
- You start with $1,000 in contest money to make wagers with. You may join in any week.
- You can wager on the spread or Over/Under for any NFL game, so long as your pick is made by kickoff of that game. The Yahoo Sports Odds page is a good place to get betting lines: you may use the best line you find available when you make your post, but revisions to wagers are not allowed.
- Your wager must be in an increment of $10.
- You must beat the House: Therefore, you only receive 90% of your wager for a win ($9 on a $10 bet), but lose 100% of your wager on a loss.
- Your wager may be any amount between $10 and your full bankroll.
- New this year: If you lose your entire bankroll, you are allowed a re-buy for another $1,000. Unlimited re-buys are available.
- New this year: Bet the Farm staff will keep track of the full leaderboard for all participants. However, any player who has taken a re-buy will be listed below all players who have not taken a re-buy – even those with lower current balances. It’s always better to not lose all your money. Players with two re-buys will be listed below those with one re-buy, and so on.
Standings After Week 5 (or “How Cray continues to show us how it’s done”)
Josh Carey’s Picks
Bankroll: $943 (Last week: -$113)
Record: 11-13-1 (Last week: 1-4-0)
Locks: 2-2-1 (Last week: 0-1-0)
That was one rough week. Turns out Atlanta is bad (and getting worse), New England is not elite, Miami isn’t good and yes, Houston’s offense can be inept. It’s getting to a point where I’m starting to question if I actually even know anything about football games or betting on them. Look at that bankroll and record! I’m a nobody! Some average Joe Schmoe making his picks like a drunken fool. I’m down to 14th place, which is no spot for the author of the articles to be. It’s time to turn things around. It begins right here, right now. Watching the world wake up from history. But probably not. It’s not a retreat, it’s an advance!
$50 New York Giants at Chicago Bears UNDER 47.5 (Lock of the week): Which will be worse: the defensive play in this game or the quarterback play? That’s the question you have to ask yourself when looking at the total for this week’s Thursday Night game. The Chicago defense is likely to be the only unit on the field that even looks passable, with Eli Manning and Jay Cutler playing a game of “Who can fail at life more successfully?” Honestly, I’m not sure who will win that battle, but I do not expect a lot of offense in this much, much less the somewhat absurd amount this total would suggest. It’s a Thursday night game anyway, and the under on those has been historically favored (last week nonwithstanding). I feel confident enough to make this my lock of the week (which is still better than my average picks, damnit!).
$40 New Orleans +2.5 at New England: Let’s say New England gets Rob Gronkowski back this week (which it looks like they will). He’ll still be just the second best tight end on the field Sunday. More importantly, I don’t think he’ll be enough (this week at least) to transform a team that really hasn’t even looked all that impressive even in their victories, much less their touchdown-less defeat to a perfectly “okay” Cincinnati team last week. Yes, it’s in Foxboro. But the Saints look like they’re back to being the elite team they were before that would Bountygate mess. I’d take the moneyline here if my own rules allowed it.
$30 Dallas -5.5 vs. Washington: This is one of those “Hey, let’s go against recent results” plays of mine (you know, the exact opposite of what I’m doing with New Orleans. You think my lack of consistency has anything to do with my recent losing streak?). Everybody is down on the Cowboys after two straight losses. But come on! Losing to Denver by only a field goal looks like it’s going to be a major accomplishment this year. Washington has been as up-and-down as anybody this year, and I really don’t see them staying within a touchdown of this one. Maybe I get screwed by some back door cover in garbage time, but that’s part of the game.
$20 San Diego +1.5 vs. Indianapolis: I don’t have any major insight into this one. These are just two teams I am really still unsure about, so I take the home team with the points. Home teams with points are good, right? Indianapolis isn’t this good, right? I am so going to lose this one, aren’t I?
$10 Denver -27 vs. Jacksonville: I couldn’t resist history.
Total wagered: $150
Bankroll: $665 (last week -$48)
Record: 7-14 (last week 1-2)
Locks: 1-1 (last week 1-0!)
Lock, stock, and my first smoking barrel! Finally, my intuition about the game of football came through with my pick of the week. Although it’s only my first successful lock and seeing my bankroll above looks slightly larger than Blaine Gabbert’s QB rating, some might say “what intuition?” I seem to bang out at least one win per week so we are going to stick with the three team manifest and hope to see at least a two banger in the nearer future.
$80 Seattle -13 (Lock) vs. Tennessee: Thank You Ryan Fitzpatrick for that first lock of the week! I knew I could count on ‘The Amish Rifle’ for some good old-fashioned CB talk in the huddle to confuse his coworkers. “We are gonna run a bunny hopper, drop it off the shoulder, let the gum ball machine out, and let Smokey bear take the picture, 10-100, break!” Now he must face the toughest road test of the year in Seattle. The Seahawks are arguably the best home team in America and I have all the confidence in their ability to shutdown the power to Fitzpatrick’s citizens band offense. Seahawks 34 Titans 13.
$80 Green Bay -2.5 at Baltimore: Green Bay has lost both their road games and Baltimore has won both home games. Why am I taking the Packers then? Let’s not call it a hunch but instead something Shakespeare would foreshadow. “Beware the Ides of Green October.” “Friends, Razzballers, countrymen, I come to bury the Ravens, not to praise them.” “When sorrows come, they come not single spies, but in battalions.” “Men of few INTs, are the best men.” “Look like the innocent cheese, and be the serpent under’t .” “Good night, good night! Parting is such sweet sorrow, that I shall say good night till it be tomorrow.” What just happened? Packers 24 Ravens 17.
$40 Dallas vs. Washington Over 53: Did you see that Cowboys Broncos game last week? Unless you live on Montserrat, of course you did. While the start to this year for both teams leads to a projected over (both teams score and get scored one quite a bit in 2013), and is a basis for my over bet, last year’s meetings add another dimension to the stats. These two teams played twice last year and one game went over and the other under. Just like last year’s early in the year affair, where you are less cautious and slightly absent minded about mistakes, they went off to score 69 points combined. The second game that went under was played in the last week of the season, for the division belt, a match that was more in the mindset of a playoff battle where you take care of the football and reduce your risk. Good thing we are still in October. I see points early and often in this lovely fall clash. Cowboys 38 Redskins 31.
$10 Jacksonville +27 at Denver: I couldn’t resist history. Broncos 38 Jaguars 13.
Total Wagered: $210
Now it’s your turn. Make your picks in the comments. Please! And remember: $10 increments only.