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Week three of preseason wasn’t as enlightening as I would like it to be and week 4 will probably be just as snooze worthy, which makes me want to point out something.  And here it is.  No here –> Don’t read too much into preseason.  I’ve gone back and forth on this.  I always hear people make the brilliant argument against preseason by saying that the Lions went 4-0 in preseason and then went 0-16 in the regular season.  Yeah, that just means that wins and losses mean absolutely nothing.  And nobody in their right mind thought they did.  But what about the stats?  If Joe Blow is targeted more than Joe Schmoe does that mean he might be targeted more often during the season?  Well, yes and no.  It all has to be looked at in context and according to sample size.  If an offensive lineman tweaked his ankle, he’s out of that game even if he would gut it out in the regular season.  What does that do to the QB play?  There are just too many variables, with the biggest one being that the coaches do not want to give away their game plans.  They want to evaluate players in game settings, but they don’t want to give opponents any advantage whatsoever.  So I try to take what I can out of these games, but always try to take a step back and realize there is more to it than what meets the eye.

Before we get to the weekend notes I just wanted to tell ya’ll that I’ve updated the PPR Tiers and Non-PPR Tiers.  I will continue tweaking them as we get closer to opening day so keep checking back.  The tiers will be the most up to date, while the top 100′s and individual positions a little more behind the times.  Onto more words about football –

Knowshon Moreno: His hamstring is still hurting.  Looks like he could miss some time early.  No timetable right now of course.  I like him this year, but if he’s not healthy, he’s not healthy.  The Broncos don’t have many other options with Buckhalter also hurting and LenDale White suspended for the first 4 games.  If none of them play, it would probably end up being Lance Ball’s ball.  If you have to play him, you might want to have a fifth of whisky nearby.

Antonio Bryant: He didn’t play one down for the Bengals, but left town 8 million dollars richer.  Good work if you can get it.

Michael Bush: He had a procedure done on his fractured finger and could be available for the first week.  This is good news, but I would wait on inking him into your starting lineup for now.  This could give McFadden some traction, but I believe Bush is going to be the early down/goal line guy while McFadden will be the third down/slot receiver type. PPR = McFad, Non-PPR = Bush

Percy Harvin: He played and had a couple receptions and says he thinks his migraines are controllable.  He has quite a bit of upside with Rice out and Favre favring.  I would feel good about him as a high end WR3 right now and by the time Rice comes back Favre should have built a loving relationship with him.

Arian Foster: He went all fantasy stud on the Cowboys, rushing 18 times for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Steve Slaton got turf toe.  He has gone from late round flier to 4th round pick and I can’t see any reason not to grab him in the 4th even if it feels all icky to think others got him in the 112th (that is a big league).

Jeremiah Johnson: Have you ever killed yerself a Grizz? Well, I doubt he has, but Jeremiah could be taking over the backup RB role in Houston with Slaton getting injured.  He’s a name to keep on your radar.  If Foster were to go down in week 1 or fumble once, you might be better served picking up JJ instead of SS.

Mike Williams (SEA): It looks like Williams has won the #3 receiver position.  The Seattle receivers aren’t really worth mining for fantasy ore, but if he beats out Branch for looks it might be time to take notice in leagues smaller than 20 teams.

Mike Williams (TB): The other Mike Williams continues to play well.  This time with 3 receptions for 83 yards.  He appears to be legit, but he is still a rookie that plays for Tampa Bay.  He is worth drafting, but he will be inconsistent.  Don’t reach.

Stephen Williams: I went to the Cardinals/Bears game and Williams was about the only player worth watching while I drank my 8 dollar beer.  He looked especially good after the catch.  If Fitz or Breaston ever have to miss time Williams will be the guy.  Dynasty leaguers should be on point.

Jacoby Jones: He continues to out play Kevin Walter and I just don’t see any reason he won’t out fantasy play him as well (for the most part they go hand in hand).  He had 5 receptions for 53 yards and a TD.  We are BFF.

Larry Johnson: He had his best game of the preseason and looks like he won the backup RB spot which is a decent spot to be in with Clinton Portis a walking time injury.  LJ still makes for a decent late round flier, but not much more.

Owen Daniels: Coach Kubiak said OD would play 15-20 snaps at the most week 1.  If he is your starter it’s time to start looking for a fill in for the first couple games.

Louis Murphy: he had 87 yards and a TD and looks like the Raiders best shot at a fantasy wide receiver this season.  He showed that he could play last season with a few flashes even with the sad excuse for quarterbacks.  If Campbell can elevate that offense at all, it helps Murphy become a decent late rounder.

  1. Doc

    Doc says:
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    Join us for a Razzball Commenter Mock Draft Tuesday 11 pm eastern — The same settings for the commenter leagues. Give cleaver a shout if you want in. It’s a real league, but will just be deleted after the draft. vancleave596(at)yahoo.com

  2. Broadstreetbrawler says:
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    First draft of the season, yahoo default scoring, I drafted out of the 9 hole.
    1.Randy Moss 2.Reggie Wayne 3. JC superstar 4. Dallas Clark
    5.Lesean McCoy 6.Mike Sims Walker 7.Pierre Thomas 8.Hakeem Nicks
    9.Felix Jones 10.Jay Cutler 11.Brandon Jacobs 12.Vincent Jackson
    13.Jacoby Jones 14.Indy 15. Jay Feely

    I thought there would be RB talent available late (that was the case, hello felix jones in the 9th), so I went wr/wr.

    I’m so high on this team I basically feel like they should give me the trophy now, am I wrong?

  3. Sikwitit says:
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    Doc,

    Who would you rather have? Beanie Wells or Arian Foster and why? Something tells me Foster might have a better year…

  4. Wilsonian says:
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    Pick 2 out of these guys in a 0.5 PPR, if you could:

    Jacobs, FJax, McFadden, Jacoby, McLuster, Harrison, D Brown

    Thanks, Doc!

  5. bandwgn says:
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    So it is Lance Ball not Fargas who will get more time in the Denver backfield? Should I just stay away from the whole mess altogether?

  6. Jeff says:
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    Adrian Foster – Take it you won’t own him on any teams with him in your Risky but Frisky tier. What kind of numbers can we expect from him and where would be a good spot to shoot for him in a 12 team, non-PPR league?

  7. xxx says:
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    trade mike wallace for zach miller in a 10 teamer? i already have owen daniels, but i was really high on miller this year…

  8. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Broadstreetbrawler: Agreed, tons of depth. Would kill for this team in PPR, but as it is I like it. PT, Nicks and Jones are great value.

    @Sikwitit: Its getting closer but i’m still in the Wells camp.

    @Wilsonian: McFadden, Harrison

    @bandwgn: Yeah, he was getting the work after White.

    @Jeff: He should probably be moved up into the Pierre Thomas Tier. His risk is getting lessened. I would grab him late in the 4th/early 5th. But his hype may be pushing him higher.

  9. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @bandwgn: But yeah, I’m staying away for now.

  10. G.O.B. says:
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    Doc,

    I just drafted finished up this draft yesterday. It’s a 10 team, non PPR league, I had #3 pick.

    QB: Matt Ryan (10th round)
    RB: Adrian Peterson (1)
    RB: Knowshon Moreno (4)
    WR: Roddy White (2)
    WR: Calvin Johnson (3)
    RB/WR: Arian Foster (5)
    TE: Zach Miller (11)
    K: Robbie Gould (16)
    D/ST: Vikings (13)

    BN: Michael Crabtree (6)
    BN: Felix Jones (7)
    BN: Hakeem Nicks (8)
    BN: Ahmad Bradshaw (9)
    BN: Derrick Mason (12)
    BN: Devin Hester (14)
    BN: Louis Murphy (15)

    The last five rounds were on autodraft, so I didn’t have a hand in them, but they don’t seem that bad to me. I think it’s a solid team, what do you think?

    On a different note, I am in another league that has 3 points per reception. Would you rather have Desean Jackson or Wes Welker in a league like that?

  11. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @G.O.B.: yeah, I like your bench. Knowshon, like I said, is a little iffy, but hopefully he’ll be ok for the long haul.

    Gotta go Wes Welker there for sure.

  12. barker says:
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    drafted sidney rice in a 20 team 3 WR league

    current healthy WR are colston malcolm floyd gage golden tate laveraneus coles

    drop coles for camarillo antonio bryant amendola mark clayton andre caldwell

  13. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @barker: I’d give Camarillo a shot.

  14. el gaucho insufrible says:
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    My team looks similar to G.O.B.s, 10 team, non PPR, picking from the #5 spot. Loved this draft spot, only waiting 10-11 players between picks so easier to gauge who to go for.

    QB: Jay Cutler (8th round)
    RB: Ray Rice (1)
    RB: Rashard Mendenhall (2)
    RB/WR: Jamaal Charles (3)
    WR: Greg Jennings (4)
    WR: Michael Crabtree (5)
    TE: Zach Miller (10)
    D/ST: Vikings (12)

    BN: Jahvid Best (6)
    BN: Hakeem Nicks (7)
    BN: Kevin Kolb (9)
    BN: Malcom Floyd (11)
    BN: Derrick Mason (13)
    BN: Devin Hester (14)
    BN: Heath Miller (15)

    The #4 guy grabbed Brees instead of Rice, so felt like I got a steal there. I love my three RBs, but feel like I might suffer in the WR department. Also only one RB on the bench. What do you think? Thanks!

  15. dja says:
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    grabbed this team in a 10 team auction. i’m pretty worried about my wr… should i try to trade rodgers or cutler for a decent wr?

    the league starts 2rb and 3 wr. no flex.

    qb: rodgers, cutler (didn’t want rodgers but he went for $38 after brees went for $51 and manning for $34, so i took it)

    rb: mendenhall, deangelo, knowshon, chester taylor
    wr: wayne, mike wallace, massaquoi, edelman, burleson, gaffney, anthony gonzalez
    te: owen williams

    didn’t draft a kicker or defense.

  16. barker says:
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    for the same league what about javon walker or arrelious benn

  17. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @el gaucho insufrible: I know it’s just a 10 teamer, but I really like it. Kolb/Cutler should be able to put up elite numbers together. Great bench too.

    @dja: Yeah, for a 10 teamer I think you are going to need a better #2 WR. I wonder if you could trade Rodgers for a QB/WR combo? I like Cutler, but it is a decent drop from Rodgers. If you got good backup for insurance and a decent WR to start I could see trading.

  18. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @barker: I’d rather have Camarillo. Walker is a thought, but I don’t think he’ll hold up. Benn won’t get much playing time.

  19. barker says:
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    thank you doc — u da man

  20. Wilsonian says:
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    @Doc: as a followup… Our rosters go:

    QB, 3WR, 2RB, TE, W/R, K, DEF, 2IDP, 6BN

    My bench is:

    Moreno, Harrison, McFadden, Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Big Ben

    Do you still like either of McFadden or Harrison over Jacoby Jones in a 0.5 PPR league? Harrison is worrying me with his fumbles and everything I read on Jones says he’s about to blow up. Thank ya kindly.

  21. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @barker: No problemo.

    @Wilsonian: Yeah, the word on Harrison isn’t good. We know he can play like a mad man so I’m not buying his bad preseason, but it does leave the door open for Hardesty. You know my man love for Jones so I wouldn’t argue too hard against grabbing him. I’m sticking with Harrison until he loses the job to Hardesty.

  22. Principal Blackman says:
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    So MJD is falling out of the top 4 in recent mocks, but that’s ridiculous, right? He should still be a top four pick.

  23. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Principal Blackman: YEah, the rumors surrounding his “ijury” have been many, but nothing concrete. I am fine grabbing him in the top 4.

  24. Wilsonian says:
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    @Doc: thanks Doc. What do you think about this:

    Dropping McFadden for Jones, waiting out the CLE RB shituation, and if Harrison somehow loses the job to Hardesty, picking McFadden back up or snagging Hardesty? I definitely recall Harrison going apeshizz at the end of last season, so I know the talent is there so I’m not sure I want to give up on him yet, but these damn 8 Team leagues leave so many available players. Plus I wouldn’t mind blocking someone else from getting Jones instead of watching him go off on their team.

  25. Thanks for the updates. Jesus may not love you, but I… have an appreciation for you.

  26. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @ChrisV82: Hah, no problem

  27. Dan says:
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    @Doc: Just got done with my draft – 10 man PPR league (1 point per reception). What do you think?

    QB, WR, WR, RB, RB, WR/RB, TE, DEF, K

    QB: Joe Flacco
    WR: R Wayne, Steve Smith (NYG)
    RB: Ray Rice, Shonn Greene
    Flex: LeSean McCoy
    TE: Davis
    DEF: Chargers (will most likely play them week to week on matchups and switch out on waiver wire for others – no charge there)
    K: Brionas

  28. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Dan: I like it. Smith and McCoy have extra value in PPR for sure. Sid you grab a QB backup? What does your bench look like?

  29. Dan says:
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    @Doc: bench I think is pretty solid.

    I have Big Ben, Malcom Floyd, Santana Moss, K Moreno, and M Bush.

  30. Dan says:
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    @Doc: my biggest issue right now is IF Moreno is healthy and ready to go in week 1 who do I start? It goes without question to start McCoy and Rice due to their stature and the fact McCoy catches.

    I drafted Moreno and 1 pick later LT got picked. I could have gotten LT but at the time I felt Moreno has more value because afterall he is a starter even if he’s slightly banged up. Plus, Denver has no one else to turn to – Buck is hurt, White is suspended.

    Greene or Moreno week 1 (assuming Moreno is healthy)? Greene apparently doesn’t catch; LT does. Greene plays a healthy Ravens D. Moreno plays at Jax.

    Separate question: would you try and trade to get LT on your bench OVER Moreno or hold off and stick with my gutt from the draft and see how it pans out some.

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