Week three of preseason wasn’t as enlightening as I would like it to be and week 4 will probably be just as snooze worthy, which makes me want to point out something. And here it is. No here –> Don’t read too much into preseason. I’ve gone back and forth on this. I always hear people make the brilliant argument against preseason by saying that the Lions went 4-0 in preseason and then went 0-16 in the regular season. Yeah, that just means that wins and losses mean absolutely nothing. And nobody in their right mind thought they did. But what about the stats? If Joe Blow is targeted more than Joe Schmoe does that mean he might be targeted more often during the season? Well, yes and no. It all has to be looked at in context and according to sample size. If an offensive lineman tweaked his ankle, he’s out of that game even if he would gut it out in the regular season. What does that do to the QB play? There are just too many variables, with the biggest one being that the coaches do not want to give away their game plans. They want to evaluate players in game settings, but they don’t want to give opponents any advantage whatsoever. So I try to take what I can out of these games, but always try to take a step back and realize there is more to it than what meets the eye.
Before we get to the weekend notes I just wanted to tell ya’ll that I’ve updated the PPR Tiers and Non-PPR Tiers. I will continue tweaking them as we get closer to opening day so keep checking back. The tiers will be the most up to date, while the top 100’s and individual positions a little more behind the times. Onto more words about football —
Knowshon Moreno: His hamstring is still hurting. Looks like he could miss some time early. No timetable right now of course. I like him this year, but if he’s not healthy, he’s not healthy. The Broncos don’t have many other options with Buckhalter also hurting and LenDale White suspended for the first 4 games. If none of them play, it would probably end up being Lance Ball’s ball. If you have to play him, you might want to have a fifth of whisky nearby.
Antonio Bryant: He didn’t play one down for the Bengals, but left town 8 million dollars richer. Good work if you can get it.
Michael Bush: He had a procedure done on his fractured finger and could be available for the first week. This is good news, but I would wait on inking him into your starting lineup for now. This could give McFadden some traction, but I believe Bush is going to be the early down/goal line guy while McFadden will be the third down/slot receiver type. PPR = McFad, Non-PPR = Bush
Percy Harvin: He played and had a couple receptions and says he thinks his migraines are controllable. He has quite a bit of upside with Rice out and Favre favring. I would feel good about him as a high end WR3 right now and by the time Rice comes back Favre should have built a loving relationship with him.
Arian Foster: He went all fantasy stud on the Cowboys, rushing 18 times for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Steve Slaton got turf toe. He has gone from late round flier to 4th round pick and I can’t see any reason not to grab him in the 4th even if it feels all icky to think others got him in the 112th (that is a big league).
Jeremiah Johnson: Have you ever killed yerself a Grizz? Well, I doubt he has, but Jeremiah could be taking over the backup RB role in Houston with Slaton getting injured. He’s a name to keep on your radar. If Foster were to go down in week 1 or fumble once, you might be better served picking up JJ instead of SS.
Mike Williams (SEA): It looks like Williams has won the #3 receiver position. The Seattle receivers aren’t really worth mining for fantasy ore, but if he beats out Branch for looks it might be time to take notice in leagues smaller than 20 teams.
Mike Williams (TB): The other Mike Williams continues to play well. This time with 3 receptions for 83 yards. He appears to be legit, but he is still a rookie that plays for Tampa Bay. He is worth drafting, but he will be inconsistent. Don’t reach.
Stephen Williams: I went to the Cardinals/Bears game and Williams was about the only player worth watching while I drank my 8 dollar beer. He looked especially good after the catch. If Fitz or Breaston ever have to miss time Williams will be the guy. Dynasty leaguers should be on point.
Jacoby Jones: He continues to out play Kevin Walter and I just don’t see any reason he won’t out fantasy play him as well (for the most part they go hand in hand). He had 5 receptions for 53 yards and a TD. We are BFF.
Larry Johnson: He had his best game of the preseason and looks like he won the backup RB spot which is a decent spot to be in with Clinton Portis a walking time injury. LJ still makes for a decent late round flier, but not much more.
Owen Daniels: Coach Kubiak said OD would play 15-20 snaps at the most week 1. If he is your starter it’s time to start looking for a fill in for the first couple games.
Louis Murphy: he had 87 yards and a TD and looks like the Raiders best shot at a fantasy wide receiver this season. He showed that he could play last season with a few flashes even with the sad excuse for quarterbacks. If Campbell can elevate that offense at all, it helps Murphy become a decent late rounder.