The 2009 offseason has had its share of big moves, but what do those moves mean to fantasy owners in 2009? Are we getting Randy Moss to Oakland, or Randy Moss to New England? While most marquee trades and free agent signings are hyped by team media personnel as an “excellent addition” or “a perfect fit”, they don’t always end up as successful transactions. Here we play Buy or Sell on the biggest moves of the 2009 fantasy football offseason:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Bengals to Seahawks) – Housh had nearly 1,000 yards receiving last season with the unproven and unimpressive Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB. In Seattle, if Hasselback is healthy, Housh becomes the immediate #1 target for the more than capable Seahawks signal caller. 1,000+ yards and 6+ TDs should be the floor for T.J. “Who’s Your Mama”.
Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs to Falcons) – Future Hall of Famer, Tony Gonzalez, might be changing teams, but his consistent production probably won’t falter. Gonzalez should quickly become the security blanket for young gunslinger Matt Ryan, and in the excellently balanced Falcons offense, Gonzalez could develop into a TD machine for Ryan near the Goal Line.
Laverneus Coles (Jets to Bengals) – A healthy Carson Palmer could throw for 3,500 to 4,000 yards this season, expect Coles and OchoCinco to thrive if the Bengals can protect Palmer. Coles is sure handed and not afraid to go across the middle, much like the WR he was brought in to replace, Houshmandzadeh.
Jay Cutler (Broncos to Bears) – Much of Jay “Livebetes” Cutler’s success can be derived from the outstanding offensive line that protected him in Denver. In Chicago, the addition of Orlando Pace at Left Tackle won’t be enough to correct the Bears’ problems with protecting the QB. Cutler also goes from having a plethora of playmaking weapons to having a marginal corp of receiving talent. A regression from last season’s 4,000+ yard performance is likely.
Terrell Owens (Cowboys to Bills) – For the past 3 seasons, Romo to Owens was one of the most productive tandems in fantasy football. This season however, Terrible Owens finds a new team to disrupt, but without the on field success. Trent Edwards is a notable decline in talent and ability from Dallas’ Romo, and the Bills’ offense is definitely more run focused. Look for the other Bills WR, Lee Evans, to have better year than T.O. as defenses will key on 81.
Matt Cassel (Patriots to Chiefs) – Before last season Cassel was a career backup (college and pros), likely for a reason; just look at what the Chiefs gave up to acquire him: the aging Mike Vrabel and a 2nd round pick. To put the trade in perspective, Jay Cutler was traded shortly after for two 1st round picks, Kyle Orton, and a 3rd round pick. The talent level around Cassel has precipitously declined in KC and the organization as whole is reorganizing, don’t expect 2008 numbers from Cassel.
Brandon Marshall (Broncos to Unknown) – Recent news out of Denver is talented and troubled WR Brandon Marshall has requested a trade and rumors are flying about where he’ll land. Depending on where Marshall ends up his fantasy value will vary, but only moderately. On a team with a developed offense and above average QB (i.e. Cardinals), Marshall should flourish and return late 1st round, early 2nd round fantasy value. On an offensively challenged (Ravens) or developing squad Marshall should still return top 10 WR value. However, all value is dependent on Marshall staying out of trouble and avoiding suspension.
Buy scenarios (1,200 – 1,500 yds, 12+ TDs): Bears, Cardinals, Broncos, Giants.
Sell scenarios (1,000+ yds, 7+ TDs): Ravens, Browns, Jets.