Fantasy Football Advice

I can’t speak to the job security of Mike Martz and the rest of the Chicago Bears coaching staff after this season, but I can speak for the results of Mr. Martz’s offensive scheme and that is a lot of yardage for quarterbacks and wide receivers and sometimes a Super Bowl, horrible seasons and bacterial heart infections.

Even before Martz became the de facto offensive coordinator for the Bears after nobody else wanted the job, Devin Aromashodu was starting to make sportswriter’s jobs more difficult by needing to spell his name correctly. Aroma, as in the smell and shodu, as in “you shodu smell.”  In the last 4 games of the season he had 39 targets, 22 receptions, 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.  In the previous 12 games he had a whopping 2 receptions, which mainly came about due to a quad injury and the play of Johnny Knox.

The Bears’ wide receivers were actually better than expected, which means they didn’t curl up in the fetal position after each snap.  Johnny Knox has the speed to be a huge deep threat, Earl Bennett had the tenacity to go over the middle and Hester had an all around good season, but was injured toward the end.  In Martz’s system Hester would fit in the slot well, which would give him more time to work on returning punts, and he says that he wants to cut down on some receiving duties if it can help him return to his punt returner dominance.  That’s weird, but good news for Aromashodu.  If Hester isn’t the #1 receiver, who is?

Just about any sized receiver can be the man in a Martz based system, but who usually becomes the man?  Roy Williams and Torry Holt? Yeah.  These aren’t Hester sized men.  When free slinging Jay Cutler got the 6′ 2″ Aromashodu in the offense, he went to him early and often.  I see Knox and Aromashodu lining up wide with Hester and Bennett in the slot.  Martz called Knox his “diamond” and this could even be a sleeper post for him, but Aromashodu has size and the confidence of his quarterback.  If he learns Martz’s system well, there is no limit to what he can do next season.

He may not be a “sleeper” by ADP standards come August, but I see him holding his value even if he is riding a big hype machine.  The Martz offense has room for multiple 1,000 yard receivers so you may even see a Johnny Knox sleeper post in the near future.  He could be more of your proto-typical sleeper, but he will also be a bit hit and miss.  I’m not ashamed to get on the Martz bandwagon.  Mike Furrey had over 1,000 yards with Jon Kitna throwing to him.  Kitna! Furrey!

Sometimes everyone thinks a player is a Sleeper; they get over-hyped to the point where you can’t draft them because people are reaching to acquire him. In one of my competitive 12 team leagues last season a leaguemate picked James Davis in the 8^th round. Being the mature person that I am I made fun of him for making that pick.

He felt like he was a genius and declared that he’d been doing that in all his drafts. I don’t think he felt like such a genius at the end of the year.

With the retirement of Kurt Warner it’s hard to tell where people are going to value Matt Leinart for Fantasy in 2010. In all likelihood Anquan Boldin is going to be traded. Ken Whisenhunt has been trying to transition the offense toward a more run-oriented scheme. We saw glimpses of Matt Leinart running the show this season and it wasn’t pretty. There is reason for optimism, however.

Stepping into an offense in the middle of the season or during a game is a nearly impossible task. It’s a huge advantage knowing that you’re going to be “the guy” and having all summer to work on things. One would assume that since Matt Leinart blew his first opportunity he would not take this one for granted. Coming out of USC Leinart was a celebrity. He had the opportunity to not take being an NFL Quarterback seriously and did so. A lot of people would’ve done the same thing, they just don’t want to admit it.

Each quarterback throws a slightly different ball. Receivers need time to adjust, particularly to a left-handed quarterback. Leinart’s receivers should have ample opportunity to do so.

There are positive aspects to the Cardinals becoming more run-oriented. Defenses won’t simply be able to key in on the passing game. In fact if they run the ball effectively defenses will stack the box, setting them up for play action. A running offense should lead to Leinart throwing fewer interceptions (see Brett Favre 2009).

Even if Boldin leaves, Leinart will still have plenty of targets to throw to including Larry Fitzgerald. The Cardinals offensive line is fairly solid and the team might even bolster it during the offseason. Personnel-wise Leinart will have favorable talent surrounding him barring injuries.

For all the above mentioned reasons Matt Leinart could deliver solid value for us in 2010. There’s still a possibility that the Cardinals could secure a veteran QB in the off season. I might even prefer that for Fantasy because it’ll drive Leinart’s value down significantly and it could make him a late round steal.

Sleeper Disclaimer: Although these are players that ought to be undervalued due to poor performance or injury in 2009, there might be a lot of hype swarming around them preseason. In this case the player has been “de-sleepered” and we don’t want them because our whole objective is to get undervalued players. Here at Razzball we will have extensive pre-draft coverage and go over all this.

In a previous post I discussed why DeSean Jackson could be a disappointment in 2010 for Fantasy. I am a big believer in managing your risk in order to produce consistently. We don’t want our scores to fluctuate drastically from week to week because we’ll lose more games that way.

A critical strategy in managing your risk is to avoid owning players on the same team unless you have an extremely good reason to do so (i.e. they are both huge Sleepers, you are handcuffing, etc.) I am going to dedicate a post to this whole concept and why I am right about it.

The reason I bring this up is both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are attractive players in 2010 Fantasy football. Since I’m not willing to own both and take on more risk, however, I need to choose between the two. In this type of dilemma I go with whichever player offers more upside.

DeSean Jackson will probably have the same type of year in 2010 that he had in 2009, perhaps not quite as good (still very solid, though). Jeremy Maclin should have a monster season and can be drafted MUCH later than Jackson. He has a lot more upside and thus I’ll be skipping over DeSean Jackson (who I owned in every league last year) and targeting Maclin in all my drafts.

Dude, what’s the deal with your ridiculous man-crush on Maclin? Am I gonna have to read about this constantly in your Razzball pre-draft coverage? Unless McNabb gets traded the system in Philadelphia is set up perfectly for a receiver like Maclin. Even if McNabb gets traded the system is favorable. And yes, you’re going to have to listen to it because I preach about the players that are the best value and Maclin fits the bill.

Entering the 2009 season there was some hype surrounding Maclin. He was a high round pick, had a great pedigree, and was a receiver (which the Eagles never seem to have enough of). He was drafted in the middle rounds in most leagues. The early part of the season Maclin’s production was basically nothing. He didn’t see the field nearly as much as anticipated and Donovan McNabb was giving him a lot of looks when he was in. Through the first 4 weeks he only had 6 catches for 45 yards with no touchdowns (although one of those weeks was a Bye). Many people, myself included, ending up dropping him in favor of better Sleepers. It looked like Maclin wouldn’t be relevant at all for 2009.

Beginning in week 5 Maclin went on a tear. Through the final 13 games he had 49 catches for 717 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I certainly think Maclin is capable of that pace or more for 2010. Don’t forget that he caught 7 balls for 146 yards and touchdown in the Eagles only playoff game. Even if he simply maintained his 2009 regular season production from week 5 on he’d rack up about 60 catches for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns. That is a solid year in and of itself but remember: there’s upside!!!!!!

So let’s consider all the factors. Maclin has the pedigree, work ethic, physical tools, stable organization, superb passing attack, etc. He has everything we look for in a Sleeper. In 2010 he is a player you must target in your draft(s).

For 2009 I touted DeSean Jackson as a “must add” to your Fantasy squad. There is an inevitable cycle; a player is a Sleeper, he breaks out, the next season he’s overvalued. This means that often we will only end up owning a player for one season at a time.

DeSean Jackson will have a great year in 2010. He’ll be rated as one of the top receivers and drafted in the late 2^nd, early 3^rd round in most 12 team leagues. In PPR, which most of us play, he could disappoint. Not catastrophically, mind you, but at that spot in the draft I think we’ll be able to get more upside.

In 2009 I thought that the Eagles would look to put the ball in his hands 80+ times. It appeared that he had the potential to be used in the short and intermediate passing game as well as being a deep threat. Ultimately he was primarily a deep threat and ended up having a monster year for that “type” of player.

The problem with all of this for 2010 is big plays have a lot of variance. Jackson will be drafted under the assumption that he will hit as many “home run” type plays as he did the year before. When you look at the number of touchdowns he scored and how much yardage he covered on those plays there’s reason for concern. You have to ask yourself “what are the chances of him being able to improve upon those numbers.”

In 2009 Jackson posted 63 catches for 1,167 yards and 9 touchdowns. He added 2 return touchdowns (some leagues count those, others don’t).

Any reasonable person’s response to that would be “almost no chance unless the Eagles decide to get him involved in shorter routes the way we assumed in 2009.” So his yardage and touchdowns will almost certainly decline unless the receptions spike.

As an Eagles fan I would love Jackson to repeat his 2009 performance. I don’t feel that he needs to, however, in order for them to be successful. I will be writing a Sleeper post on Jeremy Maclin, who I think might be the best Sleeper at Wide Receiver in 2010. He won’t be a late round pick that comes “out of nowhere” but he offers guaranteed production in the mid rounds with enormous upside.

Sleeper Disclaimer: Although these are players that ought to be undervalued due to poor performance or injury in 2009, there might be a lot of hype swarming around them preseason. In this case the player has been “de-sleepered” and we don’t want them because our whole objective is to get undervalued players. Here at Razzball we will have extensive pre-draft coverage and go over all this.

Ryan was one of the most colossal disappointments from 2009. He was drafted in the 5^th-8^th rounds in most leagues and didn’t deliver anything close to that value. There were some injury issues but his final line was: 2,916 yards, 22 touchdowns to 14 interceptions, and an 80.9 quarterback rating. His touchdown to interception ratio wasn’t really worse than in his rookie year but all the other peripherals were down. His ADP in 2009 was based on the assumption that he’d improve not regress slightly.

So, why did Matt Ryan suck so bad in 2009? Part of his problem was playing so well in his rookie campaign. Teams respected his ability and game planned to try and stop the passing game. The Falcons didn’t run the ball nearly as effectively and Michael Turner had a few huge games but other than that he was not very productive or injured. Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood filled in but they did not bring enough to the table to force teams to load up the box and open up the field for Ryan and his receivers.

I am stoked about Matt Ryan for Fantasy in 2010 and you should be too. Based on his performance he should fall to the mid rounds (around the 10^th) in 12 team leagues. If that’s how things are shaping up in preseason mocks he should be your target even if you draft a better QB earlier. Why would you want to do that?

We all love a “comeback story.” The whole Fantasy world will have their eye on Ryan, paying close attention to how his season goes. If he does play well you could really score huge by trading him, particularly in Keeper Leagues. Now, you may want to hang on to him yourself and that’s fine too but it’s nice to know you’ll have that option. As I mentioned above, if Ryan is falling far enough I’m going to recommend drafting him even if you pick a solid QB earlier. The reason being you will be able to trade him for significantly more value if he starts out strong.

Do I believe that Matt Ryan will turn it around? Yes, I do. Emphatically in fact. The touchdown to interception ratio will improve. He should be a 2 to 1 ratio guy; 26 TD’s and 13 INT’s sounds about right. The yards should be in the mid to high 3,000’s (we’ll say 3,750). These are the type of numbers we expected of him in 2009 that made people pick him in the 4^th and 5^th rounds. If we can get the same potential several rounds later, why not?