Fantasy Football Advice

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Tier I

Jason Witten 17 (9+8) – I know that Miles Austin is catching everything in Dallas right now but there’s no way this pace continues. Think: Steve Smith, New York Giants. I still believe in Jason Witten and his track record.

Brian Westbrook 16 (8+8) – He’s still worth the gamble considering how low his value is. Concussions can be really tricky and he is injury plagued as it is but you have to love his ceiling still. If his owner thinks his value is anything even close to his ADP tell him/her to get lost.

Calvin Johnson 17 (9+8) – It’s disconcerting that his injury has lingered like this. All indications were that he was going to play this Sunday but he didn’t. I still like him as a 2^nd half of the season comeback player.

Anquan Boldin 16 (8+8) – Similar to the Calvin Johnson situation. Dude’s a warrior. Wants a new contract in the offseason. He played after having a broken face last season. The Cardinals have a cupcake Fantasy Playoff schedule. I’ll double down on Anquan.

Steve Slaton 16 (8+8) – What is Gary Kubiak thinking? I know Slaton’s been fumbling the ball all over the place but I don’t understand how you can go from exclusively featuring somebody to just yanking them out of the game entirely. There might be something else going on in Houston that we don’t know about yet. It’s just hard to believe that Slaton’s going to be sitting on the bench the rest of the season. Right now is a good time to capitalize on those fears.

Tier II

Jonathan Stewart 15 (8+7) – Big game on Sunday for this goal line back with 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. He has been such a disappointment this season for fantasy owners but don’t be surprised if he has a solid 2^nd half of the season.

Jerricho Cotchery 15 (8+7) – He had a nice game on Sunday. I really like him from here on out to deliver value. He appeared very healthy on Sunday and it looks like the Jets were telling the truth when they said they just didn’t want to rush him back.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 15 (8+7) – Doc talked about how easy the Seahawks have it down the stretch in terms of the passing defenses they’ll face.  I really like him as a second half Sleeper.

Malcolm Floyd 15 (7+8) – I’ve had Floyd on here as Sleeper in Tier III before but the Chargers made him a starter and they waived Chris Chambers. Their offense has been so solid all year; Floyd’s upside could be really huge. I can’t imagine he’s out there on waivers (if he is, grab him). See if you can make a cagey trade for him where you don’t give up a ton.

Jamaal Charles 15 (8+7) – Larry Johnson’s days in KC are all but numbered. Charles is another player that’s been a Sleeper Math veteran, always in Tier III. I am moving him up to Tier II because the word is out- everyone knows. Even so no one’s had a chance to see him play a game yet so there’s still a small (very, very small) window of opportunity for you to grab him in a trade.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – With Owen Daniels out for the season Schaub is going to need a new target in the middle of the football field and on short to intermediate routes. Kevin Walter should see an increase in both targets and receptions from here on out.

Tier III

Ryan Moats 14 (8+6) – I refuse to put him in Tier II yet. Doc and I were talking about Moats last month when Slaton was struggling. Since then he’s turned it around and just like everyone else I was shocked to see him benched like that.  Odds are Gary Kubiak was using last weeks game to “Show Steve Slaton who’s Boss.” There have been a lot of elite backs who have struggled with fumbling the football. Slaton will get his ego back in check, work on the fundamentals, and find his way back in to Kubiak’s good graces. That being said you need to put a waiver claim in on Moats just in case.

Jerome Harrison 14 (8+6) – Another week, another Jerome Harrison… Here’s another Sleeper Math veteran.  We saw what he was able to do earlier in the season when Lewis was injured. Hopefully he gets hurt again and Harrison can get the opportunity to start that he deserves.

Maurice Morris 14 (7+7) – Kevin Smith left last Sunday’s game with a minor injury. Morris came in and played well in his stead. The coaching staff said Smith could’ve returned but they were being precautionary. It sounds like he’ll be ready to go this Sunday. Even so this makes Morris a really nice stash in case Smith’s injury is worse than reported or he re-aggravates it.

Mike Thomas 14 (7+7) – My esteemed colleague, Mr. Jones will be dropping “Targets” on the website this afternoon. He will discuss, much more eloquently than I can, why this guy is good pickup.

Tashard Choice 14 (8+6) – There’s reason to question whether Barber and Felix Jones can manage to stay healthy. Choice’s value is back down again, to waiver wire level in most leagues. He proved what he can do when he gets an opportunity. Stashing him for the second half is not a bad idea.

Justin Forsett 14 (7+7) – He has continued to get more and more looks in the offense while Julius Jones is boring us all to death. Forsett is one of the best second half Sleepers- he is a player who could leapfrog to the top of the depth chart either via injury to Jones or superior skill set.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot will bother him the rest of the season. At some point he could injure it worse than it already is. If that happens Danny Ware will become the change of pace back to Jacobs and you could expect him to be solid producer for the G-Men.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew

This week’s Fantasy Football Roundtable is up and running over at Fantasy Football Whiz!  If you don’t click your way over there you are missing out on enlightenment, epiphany, and great discovery!

If you missed the initial “Sleeper Math” post, you can read it here.

Let’s remind ourselves of the formula:

Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Now that we have two weeks of regular season play under our belts things have changed. As I wrote about in a previous post this is a new era where our drafts are behind us and we start getting paranoid about our studs not panning out. Some players haven’t put up numbers and that is a good thing. So all the players I’m going to talk about here I look at within a “buy low” framework.

Tier I

Calvin Johnson 19 (10+9) – Everyone expects production similar to Andre Johnson. I think that is reasonable. Don’t talk to me about how he has no quarterback and is on a bad team. Last year he had a worse QB, worse offense around him, and the worst team possible (0-16) yet he put up huge numbers. Strong work ethic, physical specimen, etc. But all the negativity I just rebutted; you can bet some owners are very nervous about those things. Play psychological warfare and see if you can steal him for a couple good players.

Steve Slaton 17 (9+8) – He has disappointed thus far but the offense looked dynamite last week. The yards, receptions, and touchdowns will be there. Astute owners and people who drafted him too high (1^st round reachers) won’t cough him up but luckily most people are nervous nellies. If you get in to negotiations make sure you play up the fact that Chris Brown is listed as the short distance back and will snake TD’s from Slaton (personally I’m not all that concerned about this but other people are).

Marshawn Lynch 16 (8+8) – Is that Fred Jackson out there or Brian Westbrook? It’s been hard to tell through the first two weeks and you can bet that there are some Lynch owners getting very nervous about it. Personally I think Lynch is going to come in guns blazing, be the feature back, and get all the goal line carries. You can get him extremely cheap right now.

Wes Welker 16 (7+9) – This is for PPR only! If you own Welker in non-PPR odds are you overpaid for him. The Patriots offense isn’t what it was in 2007 but it’s also better than it’s been the first few weeks. Welker missed week 2 but it doesn’t seem like his injury will keep him out of any more games. From here on out he’ll be back to his old tricks and catching 6-10 balls every single week.

Brandon Marshall 16 (9+7) – The tough call here is whether or not Marshall will get the number of targets he needs to be his elite self. So far he hasn’t been spectacular but the reality is he’s as physically gifted as any other receiver in football. Owners should be willing to give a discount on him.

Tier II

Mario Manningham 16 (8+8) – I can’t list this guy as a Tier III Sleeper even though he went undrafted in all but the deepest leagues. The cat is out of the bag about his talent and the Giants willingness to give him massive numbers of targets. You are going to have to give up something decent to get him. There will be a lot of smart fantasy owners this season who trade for him and seemingly give up “too much” but end up getting the better end of the bargain.

LeSean McCoy 15 (9+6) – Westbrook’s injury status is still uncertain. If he winds up missing significant time McCoy could deliver 2^nd round value. I would be willing to pay for that type of potential production. He might be the best stash in fantasy football right now.

Percy Harvin 15 (8+7) – Still listed as the #3 on the depth chart in a lot of places but you and I both know how Brett Favre feels about turning young, nubile WR’s in to studs- he loves it. It is evident that Harvin is a superior player to Berrian and Sidney Rice and I just see him potentially being a breakout rookie.

Eddie Royal 15 (8+7) – The lack of targets in the first few weeks kill his value. Even so he is listed as the #1 receiver on the depth chart and the Broncos used him like crazy in the preseason. Dude’s got a lot of talent and he’s not a bad player to take a chance on considering the pass-happy offense that Josh McDaniel’s is integrating in Denver.

Ahmad Bradshaw 15 (8+7) I am downgrading his skill a little bit from the previous post. I am not convinced he has “Sproles-like” explosiveness. Even so the Giants offense is going to be respectable this season and Brandon Jacobs continues to punish his body along with defenders he collides with. Bradshaw hasn’t done anything spectacular thus far which should lower his asking price unless you are in leagues full of Giants fans like I am. Then you have to give up Brees to get him.

Tier III

Chansi Stuckey 14 (7+7) – I really like what I’ve seen so far this season from Stuckey. I also like what I’ve seen out of Mark Sanchez’s willingness to target him in the Red Zone and on deep routes. There are worse stashes out there.

Nate Washington 14 (7+7) – He looked really solid this weekend after missing the Titans first game. They looked to get him the ball a lot more than Justin Gage and I’m not sure how seriously to consider that yet. Either way he’s worth tucking on your bench if you have room and need receiver depth.

Laurent Robinson 14 (8+6) – Another receiver that played a really nice game on Sunday. He’s usurped Donnie Avery as the #1 in St. Louis and his skill set could turn out to be better than advertised. I would love to rate him higher but St. Louis looks atrocious.  It is very difficult to find #1 WR’s on the waiver wire. Here’s one.

Louis Murphy 14 (7+7) – What’s with all the receivers??? Look it’s not my fault they’re all coming out of the woodwork. Plus if you read my first “Sleeper Math” you’ll see that I nailed a lot of the running backs and whiffed on receivers ergo the imbalance in Tier III this time around. Isn’t it funny how when guys get drafted high and get a big contract they just aren’t hungry *cough* Darrius Heyward-Bey *cough.* Louis Murphy is yet another dude who wants that big contract and so he’s willing to fight and claw for everything he can get. He is now the #1 but again here’s another atrocious Offense.

Jerious Norwood 13 (8+5) – I can’t end this post without giving you a RB stash. Here’s another Sproles-clone for you and he’s in a decent Offense. Michael Turner had 28 carries last week. Do the Falcons have some sort of bet riding on how quickly they can get this dude injured? Maybe you’re one of those old dudes who don’t believe that a lot of carries increases your chances of getting injured. If, however, you like facts vs. glorifying a twisted view of the past I suggest stashing Norwood for when Turner wears down or worse.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew

Fantasy Sports are contests of collective decision making. People love personal stories about “Sleepers” where a player comes out of nowhere and conquers the world. Look, some of that goes on but exponentially more important is talent and opportunity. Those are the two ingredients.

I am not trying to turn the world upside down here people. You all know it makes sense. For years people raved about the Denver Broncos and Mike Shanahan “producing” running backs. In reality their emphasis on Offensive Line play created a system in which they could plug most any NFL running back in he would be successful.

What makes predicting “Sleepers” difficult is that you are primarily wagering on the unknowns that create or hinder opportunity.  There is a Double Secret Sleeper Formula. Here it is:

Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Wow. Pretty amazing, huh?  (Sarcasm). Quantifying the unquantifiable.

I am not going to sit here and analyze every single player in the league. I have to allot time in my day to post stuff on Facebook with my friends from college about how cool we used to be.  What I am going to do is unearth the players that, in my opinion, are “Sleepers” relative to their ADP & Overall rankings.

(more…)

2nd year WR David Clowney, wasn’t clowning around in the Jet’s first preseason game in 2009. The Virginia Tech product hauled in 3 catches (2 very snazzy snags) for 102 yards. With Laveranues Coles out of the picture, and Jerricho Cotchery taking over the #1 WR duties, an impressive preseason may move Clowney into a starting position opposite Cotchery. With only Chansi Stuckey and Brad Smith to beat out and barring a Jets trade to bring in a Brandon Marshall or Dwayne Bowe, Clowney could offer fantasy owners some solid upside in the late rounds. The speedster is a legitimate deep threat which could create some explosive points weeks, but with the Jets’ QB situation, look for Clowney to be more of an upside bye-week or injury replacement than a bona fide #3 WR. Projections: 45 rec/650 yds/4 TDs.