Fantasy Football Advice

Kevin Walter did not live up to his sleeper status for 2009 so it’s time to appoint a new sleeper king of the Houston Texans’ wide receivers.  And thankfully he has a much more alliterative name; Jacoby Jones or J.J. Walker Texan Receiver.  Jones had 40 targets last season and he hauled in 27 of them for 437 yards and 6 touchdowns.  That’s a pretty nice yards per catch there.  If my math is correct he averaged 16.2 yards per catch and a touchdown every 4.5 receptions.  He was the Texans’ deep threat so those aren’t exactly crazy numbers, but his effectiveness is noteworthy.

Kevin Walter looks like he’ll be let go the way of free agency and it’s not exactly a leap to see why the Texans would let him walk.  After a 899 yard/8TD season in ‘08 he looked poised to expand on or at the very least, repeat those numbers.  Instead, he finished with 2 touchdowns and 611 yards, while his yards per catch dropped from 15 to 11.4.

J.J. has been fairly inconsistent, but Coach Kubiak believes he has the skills to be a #1 receiver.  So, if Walter leaves and Jones wins the the #2 slot how much work can he expect to get?  Let’s say that Owen Daniels returns 100% from his injury.  Last season he was on pace for 80 receptions, 1000 yards and 10 TD’s.  Andre Johnson of course is the stud of all studs and I’m projecting 100/1450/10 for him. Those two will be the main targets for Matt Schaub, but with the Texans throwing a lot there should be plenty of opportunities for Jones. If you’re up for it (and you better be!) let’s break down the Texans’ 2009 wide receiver receptions.

225 receptions for wide receivers: AJ 101, Walter 53, Anderson 38, Jones 27, Davis 6

With Walter gone, Jones would easily see those 50 receptions as the #2 receiver, but I also see that number inching closer to 60-65 and Jones’ athleticism should keep his yards per catch closer to 15 than Walter’s paltry 10 from last season which would push him into the 900+ range and even if he stays at his 6 TD’s he would be in the top 20-25 range.  Now that you’ve read one of the longer sentences ever conceived you should keep a close eye on the sitch in Houston.  If the stars line up the way I think they will, Walter will hit the bricks and J.J. will win the #2 position sooner than later and you can start jonesin for Jones.

This will be the final edition of “Sleeper Math” for this season but it’ll be back next year. For the remainder of the season we’re going to focus on matchups for the playoffs, Keepers, and setting the table for the offseason. Here at Razzball we’ll be active all the year leading up to next year’s draft. Speaking of next year’s draft we’re going to have free draft guides that will blow you away. Why, you ask? I guess you’ll just have to wait until August 2010 to find out! I do want to thank all of our readers because without you there’d be no website. We hope that we’ve been able to help you be more competitive in your league and assure you that next season we’ll be back even stronger!

If you’re reading this chances are you’re in the finals of your league. If you’re in the finals chances are your team is fairly stacked and you don’t need a lot of help. But as I preached last week I think it’s important to finish strong and roster the best team possible because you never know. In addition by snagging players off the wire you’re taking them away from your opponent.

The other group of active owners is people in Keeper leagues. In some leagues you have to declare your Keepers at the end of this season. In others you declare before the draft next year. Either way you should be looking to bolster your roster with as many young studs as possible to give you more options and your opponents fewer.

And while you’re here make sure you enter our contest!

Worth a Waiver Claim

Jerome Harrison – for obvious reasons…

Maurice Morris – He’s getting the bulk of the carries.  Opportunities equal production or something like that.

Darren McFadden – in PPR you should take a look at him. McFadden’s had several productive weeks in row, particularly in the passing game.

Ryan Moats – There’s no telling what crazy man Gary Kubiak has in store for Fantasy owners this week. Arian Foster got benched after fumbling and Ryan Moats got the most carries with 13. Would I play him in Week 16? Probably not but you have to put a claim on him regardless.

Michael Bush – Justin Fargas suffered a knee injury (the extent of which we’re not really sure right now) and Bush took over, gaining 144 yards. It’s unknown at this point whether Fargas will play in week 16 but the Raiders will be facing the Browns; that’s reason enough to put a claim in on him.

Jeremy Maclin – He was dropped in a lot of leagues due to the injury and missing Sunday’s game. Definitely worth adding to your roster in case you need another starter.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Josh Morgan – This early season bust has benefited from the improved San Francisco passing game. He put together seven catches this week (one for a touchdown). You might have more useless junk on your roster than him.

Chris Brown – As I mentioned above we’re not really sure what the end game will be in the backfield in Houston. More than likely you’ll want to avoid the situation at all costs.

Kenneth Darby – The Swine Flu wreaked havoc on the Rams this week, including SJax but he still played. Like all the players in this group you’re not expecting production unless there’s an injury at the top of the depth chart.

Aaron Brown – Maurice Morris played well (as expected) and should be in no danger of losing his job. If there is some sort of an injury, however, the speedy Aaron Brown could step in and be productive.

Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams left Sunday’s game with an injury. Sutton’s probably completely irrelevant for this year but he’s worth stashing if you have room in leagues where you don’t have to declare Keepers until next season.

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Those of you who actually played real tackle football are familiar with the phrase “play to the whistle,” meaning give your best effort until the play is over. The human temptation is to lose focus and intensity, even when you’re still in the mix to win.

Even if your league doesn’t have keepers you should be stashing the best possible players all the way up until your finals week. You never know when a player is going to come out of the woodwork. There is a tendency to peg your lineup as “set” and ignore the fact that at running back in particular, players go from “unknown” to “stud” overnight.

In my Week 13 Sleeper Math column I recommended that readers pick up Quinton Ganther, a player I had never heard of before and who wasn’t even on an NFL roster until November. He just put up 22 for me in my most competitive league this Sunday and I’m sure many of you benefited from his sudden rise to stardom as well. He is a perfect example why even if you are in position to be in the playoffs and have a strong roster you still finish and fight for every inch.

Worth a Waiver Claim

Quinton Ganther – He shouldn’t be on your waiver wire but if he is claim him (duh).

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith has a torn ligament in his knee so he’s almost certain to be out the rest of the season. Maurice Morris filled in earlier in the year when Smith was out and played well. He is a terrific addition to your roster as a possible flex play and potentially a great keeper in leagues where you don’t have to make a decision until before the 2010 draft.

Arian Foster – Gary Kubiak must play fantasy football. That’s the only thing that could explain the random shuffling he does in the backfield. He’s now announced that Arian Foster will get a chance to be the feature back with Moats and Brown being relegated to backup roles. So this no name instantly becomes worthy of a waiver claim.

Josh Cribbs – Another announcement completely out of left field. Cribbs, the return league stud, has been more and more involved in the offense as the wildcat quarterback. Now Mangini has publicly announced that he is considering throwing Cribbs in to a traditional running back role. This will remain a murky situation with the endgame unclear but the upside is clearly enormous. I am throwing in a claim on Cribbs in many of my leagues.

Willis McGahee – A lot of people dropped him and for good reason after weeks of ineptitude. The Ravens are playing the Bears week 15 so he should be a really solid flex start in most every format. If he is on waivers I’d spend a claim on him just for next week’s start (it’s the playoffs!!!!)

Reggie Bush – He probably only got dropped in shallower leagues because of the injury. In PPR leagues in particular he is a great acquisition for the stretch run.

Ahmad Bradshaw – Might’ve been dropped in your league by a frustrated owner due to several weeks of ineptitude. He looked really good last night against the Eagles so maybe he’s turned the corner with his injury issues.

Greg Camarillo – Quietly is having a really good season at 50^th overall in Yahoo rankings. Caught 7 passes for 110 yards on Sunday and has a quarterback (Chad Henne) who continues to play better and better. In PPR he could help you out.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Jason Snelling – There were rumors that Michael Turner would return on Sunday but he was kept out again. Chances are Turner will return for week 15 but if he doesn’t, Snelling would be a nice start for you.

Darren McFadden – If not for the Gradkowski injury I would have McFadden as worthy of a waiver claim and I would still consider doing so in Keeper formats. Unfortunately for the rest of this season JaMarcus Russell will be under center and I expect the offense to return to ineptitude. McFadden probably won’t warrant a flex start in weeks 15 or 16.

Chris Jennings – Outplayed Jerome Harrison against the Steelers and saw an upgrade in his touches. I don’t think I’d start him in week 15 but he’s certainly worth stashing in case.

Leonard Weaver – You simply can’t ignore him anymore. Weaver has become the short distance back for the Eagles as well as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He gets a lot of traditional work also as a straightforward runner. If Brian Westbrook doesn’t return for week 15 and you need another flex starter I would seriously consider playing Weaver.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Kenneth Darby – He got some playing time on Sunday and produced. At the end of the day though this is simply a “hope Sjax gets injured” play.

Kahlil Bell – I’ll stop hating on Forte and the Bears when they stop earning it. Lovey Smith probably won’t smarten up and spread the workload around but if he does Bell could be productive.

Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams appears fully healthy but it’s possible he could re-aggravate it.

Rashad Jennings – Same rationale as always; bet that MJD’s heavy workload will catch up with him.

Willie Parker – Mike Tomlin has alluded to making changes in the wake of the Steelers losing streak but we haven’t seen any tangible evidence of that. Mendenhall has made the most of his opportunity but there’s always a chance Tomlin will give Willie Parker an opportunity to be the main man again.

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Worth a Waiver Claim

Jerome Harrison – So I guess he’s the guy, not Chris Jennings going forward. Unless you have one of the top few spots you probably won’t be able to acquire him but either way it’s worth a shot. In PPR he could be a poor man’s Ray Rice going forward. I would take a whole team full of poor man’s Ray Rice’s.

Robert Meachem – There’s been too many good games in a row to doubt him any more. Unfortunately he could’ve been had as a free agent almost all season and now you’ve got to use a claim on him. His matchups down the stretch and the targets he’s currently receiving warrant it.

Antonio Bryant – Remarkably he’s STILL on waivers in a lot of leagues. Had a big year last year and despite the slow start has begun to really turn it on. Good matchups upcoming also. Throw down a claim on him.

Steve Breaston – Another player that I doubt is on waivers but if he is you have to love his potential down the stretch.

Sammy Morris – Bill Belichick is back to his old tricks again. Maroney has been extremely effective since becoming the primary ball carrier (other than the occasional fumble) but he was almost non-existent in the second half of the game this Sunday. Morris got a lot of touches and it looks like he might be on his way to becoming the primary back in New England once again.

Justin Forsett – A ton of people dropped him because Julius Jones was returning from injury. Not surprisingly Jones was totally ineffective on Sunday but given the majority of the touches. Forsett scored a touchdown and made the best of what he was given a chance to do. He deserves to be the starter there and I will be surprised if Mora doesn’t realize that. In Keeper Leagues in particular he’s a great acquisition.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Willie Parker – Rashard Mendenhall had a “slight” injury but the team claims he’ll be good to go for Thursday’s game. Even so we’re looking at a short week here so there’s less time for him to heal up. If for some reason he can’t play, or if he does an aggravates his injury Willie Parker will be ready to step in as the feature back.

Lex Hilliard – Still hasn’t had the type of production I’d anticipated being the second fiddle in a run happy scheme but that wouldn’t discourage me from stashing him. Ricky Williams does have a lot of miles on him so the odds of injury are high.

Maurice Morris – Still one of my favorite stashes in case Kevin Smith goes down. This offense is legit with Stafford and Johnson in the lineup.

Chris Jennings – He didn’t get nearly the number of opportunities I’d anticipated and Jerome Harrison’s cemented his role as the primary back in Cleveland. Jennings is still a great stash on your bench in case the situation changes.

Darren McFadden – Justin Fargas is still getting most of the touches in Oakland but McFadden’s talent could shine through in the final few weeks. Brad Gradkowski’s got the offense looking respectable again so it might be safe to own Raider’s now.

Quinton Ganther – I had this no name on here last week as a deep stash but the surprising number of touches he got on Sunday warrants him moving in to this category. Rock Cartwright just hasn’t done as much with his opportunity as I assumed. Who knows, Ganther might sneak his way in as the top dog by season’s end.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Kenneth Darby – Steven Jackson suffered from back spasms again last week but played and was productive. Any time a running back is battling injuries the value of his backup instantly goes up. You never know…

Kahlil Bell – It’s obvious that carrying the entire workload at running back is taking a toll on Forte and his production. I doubt Lovie Smith will smarten up and start giving Bell a decent number of touches. He is an explosive player though and certainly worth hanging on to in case something changes.

Tyrell Sutton – DeAngelo Williams was a surprise inactive on Sunday. One would assume that he’ll be back in action shortly but you never know. Sutton’s a great guy to own if that happens.

Rashad Jennings – The Jaguars don’t really split the touches so should something happen to MJD expect Jennings to be the work horse. Given his lack of touches this season he should be able to handle it.

Ryan Moats – Slaton should be back this week but in deeper leagues you could do worse than stash Moats. Coach Kubiak benched Slaton earlier in the season because he was fumbling so there’s a chance he could lose his job.

Brandon Jackson – If Ryan Grant gets injured Jackson will be the man in Green Bay, particularly in passing situations. So in PPR he’s obviously more valuable.

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If you’re observant one thing you’ll notice is that past the “Waivers” section I almost completely ignore receivers. Earlier on in the season you can make the argument for stashing wideouts because legitimate studs emerge from the embers on a regular basis. As the Fantasy season unwinds, however, the game changes.

Heading in to the Playoffs we want big producers- CEO’s, not Middle Management. The reality of the NFL is that as a receiver if you haven’t emerged by now as a focal point of your teams offense the odds are stacked against you doing so down the stretch. There will always be a few standouts worth grabbing but by and large I’m going for backup running backs.

The collective workload of a season takes its toll on all players but probably none more so than running backs. Injuries start to pile up like crazy and non-contending teams, though they won’t admit it, often err on the side of caution and sit their questionable starters in order to avoid long term injuries. Every season we see studs come out of the woodwork this time of year; players we’ve never even heard of. If you’re going to unearth a big time producer in Fantasy from here on out it’s almost certainly going to be a running back.

My first column here at Razzball was entitled “Ditch the Snuggie.” I rant and rave constantly about the idiocy of stashing marginal receivers, backup tight ends, and quarterbacks you’re not going to play. I’m telling you right now you need to take a look at your roster and purge it of these types of players. In a vacuum I know it might seem stupid to drop players that are well known for no-name backup running backs but cagey moves like that win you leagues.

Worth a Waiver Claim

Fred Jackson – As I said last week he shouldn’t be on Waivers but you never know…. Marshawn Lynch is looking more and more irrelevant under Perry Fewell.

Jason Avant – I can’t see DeSean Jackson playing next week. I can’t believe I’m saying this but Jeremy Maclin might be the best Eagles receiver in 2010. Avant has been getting his looks as it is but with Jackson out the targets should increase even more, particularly on the deep balls.

Antonio Bryant – He’s still floating around out there on Waivers in a lot of leagues. At this point you have to grab him He’s still floating around out there on Waivers in a lot of leagues. At this point you have to grab him if you can.

Jerious Norwood – Yes……finally he’s relevant. Looks completely healthy right now, played great on Sunday (including a touchdown), and Michael Turner got hurt. To top it all off Matt Ryan looks like he’ll be out next Sunday which means Chris Redman will be dumping it off a lot- even better for this scatback/PPR monster.

Lex Hilliard – I know he didn’t bust out but I don’t care. In deeper leagues especially you have to jump all over the opportunity to grab him. He will be relevant down the stretch as his touches increase. Plus Ricky Williams isn’t 100% healthy himself.

Chris Brown – I hate to even put him on this list but he’s getting goal line carries on an explosive offense. He could become a viable flex starter if this continues as crazy as that sounds. But knowing Gary Kubiak I have no clue how this might play out; Ryan Moats’ days in Houston may not be numbered…

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clears)

Sammy Morris – Got a lot of touches against New Orleans. Unfortunately Maroney looks like he’s going to retain the goal line touches going forward but if he coughs the football up you never know… the job was Morris’s earlier in the season.

Willie Parker – He got some touches against the Ravens. I don’t see him being that productive unless Mendenhall goes down but he was a starter before so you can’t totally write him off- especially not now that he’s getting fully healthy.

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith had a good game but Morris is still worth stashing because he’s talented and Smith’s been injured this season.

Chris Jennings – I still think he’s going to take over for Jamal Lewis by the end of the season.

Darren MacFadden – He is looking pretty healthy coming off injury. Downside is the backfield is crowded in Oakland and there’s not much to go around in the first place. But if anyone’s going to emerge as the feature guy it’s him. He’s just a superior athlete.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Quinton Ganther – Who the…….? He’s the backup to Rock Cartwright. I even considered putting him on my list of Free Agents to snag and I would have if Portis wasn’t coming back potentially down the road.

Kenneth Darby – Steven Jackson was his usual dominant self on Sunday. But with the Rams completely out of contention you have to question whether they’ll roll Jackson out there should he aggravate his back or accrue another injury. In PPR especially this could be a good stash.

Kahlil Bell – Matt Forte’s just not that good. Sorry Bears fans, I know how angry you are after finding out Cutler’s not good either. Don’t be surprised if the Bears start to feed this young stud the rock at some point.

Eldra Buckley – I’m not just putting him in here because he scored a touchdown. The touches haven’t been there for him but if McCoy continues to be the only back his odds of getting fatigued increase exponentially. As an Eagles fan clearly I don’t want him to get injured or anything but you never know….

Tyrell Sutton – Should DeAngelo Williams or Jonathon Stewart get hurt you’re going to love this guy you’ve never heard of- tons of speed/playmaking ability.

Rashad Jennings – Not going to be a factor unless Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. If that happens, however, you’ll be glad you own Rashad Jennings.

Ryan Moats – It’s evident now that Slaton’s won his starting job back. Moats has once again become a stash. The good part is he showed that he can be productive when given an opportunity.

Brandon Jackson – Betting against Ryan Grant staying healthy… I’ll let you do the Math.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew