Fantasy Football Advice

There are plenty of reasons to like Chris Johnson for the 2010 season, but before you go crowning his ass lets find out if we know who we think he is. Coming into the 2009 season we knew Johnson had the talent to run wild.  The first time I knew CJ was a freak was in the 2008 obligatory Detroit Lions Thanksgiving beat down.  He took it to them and looked like a man among physically stunted wombat-boys. Of course the question coming into the ‘09 season was if he would lose carries to LenDale (not important enough to have a nickname) White.  But that was answered emphatically and now the only question is, can he be totally radically awesome 2 years in a row?

What are the odds that Johnson once again leads the fantasy world in fancy pants fantasy points next season? First off I’d like to thank Jeff Fisher for not putting Vince Young in earlier, which probably kept the Titans out of the playoffs and kept CJ from getting beat up for a game or two more.  But even with that reprieve, he still carried the ball a shizz-ton which is only a smidge under a shat-ton. He ran the ball a total of 358 times and that was without the benefit of White taking the tough goal line yards for him (yeah, I know we want him to have those, but we also want him to stay healthy! It’s one of those conundrums like the scuba diver in the forest).  So do we have to get into magic numbers and irritating statistical run downs? Not if you don’t want to, jeez!  You can find an arse-ton of articles on overuse of running backs, but the bare boned facts are that backs who rush for 2,000 yards don’t have great following years.  Of course the sample size is extremely small since CJ became only the 6th back to ever do it! The good news is that out of all the 2,000 yard rushers he has the fewest number of touches coming off his 2k season and is the second youngest by 4 days.  Here are the members of the 2,000 club and the age they were when they broke 2k and the total number of carries they had after doing so.  I’m guessing that all these dudes sold their soul to the devil and will be outed by the 700 Club any day now.  Well, O.J. may have already been outed.

Eric Dickerson: 24 years, 3 months, 8 days  769 carries/72 rec

Chris Johnson: 24 years, 3 months, 12 days  609 carries/93 receptions

Jamal Lewis: 24 years, 4 months  1,004 carries/100 receptions

Terrell Davis: 26 years, 2 months 1,343 carries/152rec

O.J. Simpson: 26 years, 5 months, 8 days  1,108 carries/94 rec

Barry Sanders: 29 years,  5 months, 6 days  2,719 carries/315 rec

If I had to draw any comparison to CJ it would be Eric Dickerson.  They have similar numbers at the same age and they have similar running styles. Saying that CJ will somehow repeat the numbers of ED is foolish.  But I can say that CJ is young and that his chances of another great season are better than him not having one.  Yes, he could break something and be a total bust, but not because he has 609 carries under his belt, it would probably have something to do with a 400 pound monstrosity landing on top of him.  Remember, a can of green beans can break your toe people!

When looking at the top running backs for next season we have a top tier of four that I will feel good owning: CJ, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.  But CJ is my clear #1. When I watch him follow his blockers rather than trying to run through them like Adrian Peterson does, I like his chances of staying healthy even more than Peterson.  But I do have an aversion to just grabbing the #1 guy from the year before.  Will Johnson go for 2,000 yards again? Probably not, but he doesn’t need to break records to be the best fantasy back in 2010.  But how often do running backs repeat their #1 status? Let’s take a look-see at the best running backs from 2000 on:

2000 Marshall Faulk, 2001 Marshall Faulk, 2002 Priest Holmes, 2003 Priest Holmes, 2004 Shaun Alexander, 2005 Shaun Alexander, 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson, 2007 LaDainian Tomlinson, 2008 DeAngelo Williams, 2009 Chris Johnson, 2010 ?

As you can see it isn’t a stretch to think that a running back can repeat his fantasy dominance.  Vince Young keeps defenses more honest than Collins can and we should get a whole season of him keeping CJ free from over-molestation (what degree of molestation do you prefer?) I just cannot see any reason to not grab Johnson early and often.

Yeah, I know the joke has run its course, but I’m moving forward with the theory that “Watchu Talkin’ ‘Bout Willis” is now so lame that it is super cool.  So now that we have that out of the way, lets actually talk ’bout Willis and what is going to happen to him.  McGahee is due 3.6 million dollars next season, which is a bit steep for a back up back.  To continue playing with the Ravens he would most likely need to take a pay cut, which, after the season he just had, I doubt he’ll do.

Let’s look at his numbers from 2009 (yes, that’s last year, stop writing 09 on stuff).  The most promising numbers for his pocket book are his 14 touchdowns and his lofty 5.0 yards per carry. He only had 544 yards rushing, but that could be in his favor, not getting the wear and tear on his surgically repaired body. He was on his way to a possible career year when he was Ray Riced by Ray Rice.  I think this should be made into a nationally recognized term because it’s not often that a player is supplanted by anyone after scoring 5 TD’s in the first 3 games! But it was clear that Rice was the younger, more skilled back, but it was also clear that McGahee still has something left in the tank.  So where is he going to take that full tank next season?

Let’s take a look at the leading candidates as far as needs go:

1. Washington: The new coach in town has omnipotent power in D.C. so if he wants McGahee it shall be done.  But do they need him?  Much depends on if Clinton Portis can prove to his old coach that he also still has something left in the tank even though it looks as if his tank is rusted and he leaves oil stains wherever he sits for more than a few minutes.  With Portis’ work ethic, this seasons’ concussion, and his many injuries the Skins could have him towed away this off season.  The rest of the possibilities aren’t really possibilities. Ladell Betts is most likely done due to his age and multiple knee injuries and Quinton Ganther and Rock Cartwright barely are good enough to play on special teams.  Dan Snyder loves throwing money at players and if Shanahan says boo, McGahee has a good shot at being a Redskin next season.

2. San Diego: This game is tough on running backs and even though L.T. is one of the greatest of all time, his days in San diego are numbered.  With a base salary of 5 million and a 2 million dollar option bonus if he stays with the team in 2010, the 3.3 yards per carry Tomlinson is gone.  Nobody in San Diego believes that Darren Sproles can be an every down back so they will be looking in free agency and in the draft. McGahee makes sense because the Bolts still have a team that is primed for a run at the Super Bowl next season and there is a chance that McGahee only has one good year left.

3. Detroit: The Lions have lost faith in Kevin Smith (I agree, that dudes’ movies have gone downhill!) and depending on how severe his injuries are he may not even be ready for the beginning of next season.  Maurice Morris made a good effort at the end of the season, but he is not a starting running back in this league.  The Lions are a young team and McGahee probably doesn’t have much time left in the NFL.  Do they pay him just to help them win one or two extra games at most or do they go younger?  The draft isn’t stacked at running back, but there are 4-5 backs that could turn out to be starters.  They should probably worry about grabbing one of them instead of McGahee.

4. New England: Bill Belichick loves his old running backs.  Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor could be gone and that would leave Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney.  I believe Belichick will be interested in him, but McGahee might want a more stable starting job and more money than the Patriots will be willing to pay him.  I just believe San Diego and Washington are more desperate than the Pats.

5. Houston: The Texans may have found their man in Arian Foster, but he is no sure thing.  Steve Slaton has probably lost his job to Foster and if he’s lucky he’ll be the third down back.  Texans beat writer John McClain (who was either in Die Hard or ran for President, I’m not sure) believes they will grab a RB in the draft.  They are stacked in the passing game and if they can find that running back to grab those tough yards they could do something next year.  It’s a long shot, but the Texans will take a look at McGahee.

6. Tampa Bay: Derrick Ward, Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham aren’t starting running backs in the NFL.  Yes, Caddy had a great comeback year, but in reality he still averaged under 4 yards a carry and eeked out just over 800 yards.  Even though he played in every game he still lived on the injury report with his pals Ward and Graham.  The Bucs aren’t built to win next season so I doubt they will go after McGahee, but they are going to need a running back if they want to contend in the next hundred years or so.

In conclusion, draft Ray Rice!!  Yes, McGahee leaving would be huge for Rice.  I don’t want to see Rice top 300 rushing attempts, but I do want to see him get into the end zone more next season.  With McGahee gone, McClain could see some of those goal line looks, but Rice will no doubt be more productive.

McGahee’s value will depend on his situation next season.  With San Diego he would be in a great situation to score and in Washington he would see a lot of touches as long as Portis is gone.  If I were Willis those would be my choices and I think in fantasy he could be very usable.  His injury history would make him risky, but if he’s a starter, you have to grab him at some point.

These are the guys you wave in front of your leaguemates’ faces while you laugh and point and dance.

Brett Favre: 14th QB off the board, finished 3rd — It’s hard to give props to Favre after putting us through Favre-gate, Favre-tractor gate, Favre-ChillySUV gate, and Favre-from over gate, and some other words with gate after them, but on the football field he had a career year and finished as the third best fantasy quarterback.  That’s ahead of The Manning.  Sadly we have to ask if he’ll be back next season.  He’s already said it is “highly unlikely” that he’ll return and his teammates believe he is done.  Of course when he heals up from the beating the Saints gave him he may change his mind.  His, do I stay or do I go, routine will have a huge impact on the Vikings skill players next season.

Ray Rice: 19th RB, finished 4th — This is why you reach for players you like.  Rice got a lot of hype in the preseason, but even with that he was the 19th running back taken. Will all good young running backs that have been run through the hype machine turn out to be Ray Rice? Uh, do I really need to answer that?  So the question comes down to, do you go with young upside or old downside?  Or middle-aged backside? Scratch that last one.  I tend to go with a young back like Rice over an old one like Portis or Westbrook, but that also means I grab the Darren McFaddens of the world too.  Oh, and Ray Rice is awesome.

Thomas Jones: 25th RB, finished 5th — Here is the old downside that ended up going upside my head.  Tom Jones was healthy and steady on a team built for running.  Jones doesn’t break down and I could see him being worthwhile next season, but I could also see him not even being on the Jets if they rather not pay him and go with Shonn Greene and his amazing playoff run.

Ricky Williams: 55th RB, finished 7th — Ricky ran very well as Ronnie Brown’s backup and would have been a good value even if RB hadn’t been injured, but of course he was, and Ricky’s numbers went from buds to blossoms. I like Ricky and he should have some value next season.  I don’t believe he can hold up for a full season with a full workload, but as long as Brown can come back, Ricky should be able to produce in a committee.

Miles Austin: 48th WR, finished 3rd — Austin didn’t come out of nowhere, but he might as well have.  Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams showed that they aren’t good enough to play with the big boys every weekend and Austin is.  It looked like Austin might slow down once he started getting more attention from defenses, but he adapted and showed that he can sustain his numbers as long as he continues to get targets.

Joseph Addai: 22nd RB, finished 9th — It looked like Donald Brown would cut into Addai’s numbers, but Brown never quite developed and then got injured.  Next season should be a different story and I just don’t see Addai putting up the TD numbers he did this year.

Jonathan Stewart: 33rd RB, finished 11th — JStew had an achilles injury in preseason and it looked like it would linger so he dropped in ADP.  Well, it did, but he still played every week in a committee role with DeAngelo Williams.  It wasn’t until Williams went down that he had more than 20 carries in a game and he made those carries count.  Stewart started four out of the last five games and totaled 560 yards averaging 5.9 yards a carry in those four starts.  And in the finale he reinjured his achilles and left the game early. Extrapolate these numbers over a full season and you have 2,240 yards rushing.  Him and Deangelo totaled 2,250 yards.  But of course they totaled 421 carries as a pair, which would have hospitalized any one human being.

Jamaal Charles: 58th RB, finished 12th — I picked up and dropped JC a few thousand times while waiting for Todd Haley to get his head out of his arse.  When he finally did, Charles went on an unbelievable tear that will get him in the top 10 of most drafts next season.

Sidney Rice: No ADP, finished 7th — I give a lot of credit to Favre for giving Rice the work he deserved.  Rice has the skills, but he will be hurt the most if Favre stays home.

Vernon Davis: 17th TE, finished 1st — His ability was never in question, but he couldn’t quite get it done.  Coaching, quarterback play, and his own work ethic all contributed to that, but he finally broke out and in a big way.  His only real competition for receptions is Michael Crabtree so I don’t see him not being targeted a lot next season.

Rashard Mendenhall: 42nd RB, finished 14th — Mendenhall was in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse for the preseason and early in the regular season. He didn’t touch the ball once on offense in week 3 while being chastised by the smoldering-eyed Tomlin.  But he must have learned somthin somethin because in week 4 he totaled 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He didn’t have a lot of huge games, but he was steady, and since he’ll be the main back for a good team he’ll have a lot of value next season.

Steve Smith: 52nd WR, finished 11th — It was difficult divining who would fill the space left by Plaxico Burress.  And when we did, it didn’t quite work out; yes, I’m looking at you Mr. Manningham.  Mr. Smith went to NY and didn’t take it by storm, but slowly ppr’d them into submission.  He’s not going to grab a ton of TD’s and rack up many 100 yard games, but he’ll get you 5-8 receptions and 50-75 yards a game, all without shooting himself in the leg.

So instead of hearing about Favre every day until the Super Bowl we get to see grainy color film of the Manning boys playing catch in the backyard and hear tales of Drew Brees in his motor boat picking people off roofs.  I’m mainly happy that I don’t have to hear Rex Ryan blathering on about how his team should be favored.  Maybe he was saying flavored instead of favored?  Is that why he has put on an extra 150 pounds?  Are there any back up Jets’ kickers missing?

I’ll save you all the suspense; I’m going with The Mannings in this bout of white bread vs. Creole.  Besides the fact that I think Peyton is the ultimate X factor, I refuse to root for any team with Jeremy Shockey on it to win the Super Bowl. As commenter Danimal35 said, no team that lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season has ever won the Super Bowl.  I think that record will continue in Miami in two weeks.  Two weeks!? Ugh.

Peyton Manning: I would like to thank Manning for not making me look too stupid in front of my throngs of readers.  Hi mom! My prediction that passing is the new fad to take over the NFL was correct!  And also thanks to Bradbury Robinson and his “projectile pass,” which sounds more like vomit than football, but whatevs.  Even though the AFC Championship wasn’t a last second affair like the NFC game, it was a better all around game without the fumbleruski play being implemented on each drive.  Peyton once again showed why he is the best QB in the game by steering away from Revis Island and docking most his passes on Collie Reef and in Garcon Bay.  Next week he gets the turnover happy, but not very cover happy pass defense.

Joseph Addai: He came out of the game again this week, but managed to get back in there and out rush the rushing elite Jets.  With 2 weeks rest he will be ready to go in the Super Bowl against the poor Saints’ rush defense.

Pierre Garcon: He had 11 receptions, 151 yards and a touchdown and I could chalk it all up to Revis taking out Wayne, but Garcon didn’t look like he was just a beneficiary of a lot of targets and poor defensive backs; he made some amazing catches.  I like Anthony Gonzalez, but he may have just been Wally Pipped.

Austin Collie: Collie also came up big, but didn’t look quite as athletic after the catch as Garcon.  He ended up with a great 123 yards and a touchdown grab, but should see his role decreased a little as long as Darrelle Revis doesn’t make the trip to Miami.

Reggie Bush: He caught a pass for a touchdown, but otherwise he once again showed why he is pretty much worthless in the sense of things that are worth something, which he isn’t.  He muffed a punt, or bushed it, if you will. And by muffed or bushed, I mean that he bailed out so he wouldn’t get hit.

Pierre Thomas: He totaled 99 yards and a rushing touchdown and looks like he’ll continue to be the go to guy in the Super Bowl after Reggie Bush had no luck running the ball.  He was the second Pierre to have a good game on Championship Sunday.  What happened to all the Merican football players?!!

Drew Brees: He has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs so far.  It was difficult to tell if he was playing or not since all I can remember is Brett limping around, but looking back at the stats it looks like he was.  He didn’t out grit Ol’ Favre, but he was steady.  He gets a Colts pass defense that wasn’t really tested by Flacco and Sanchez actually looked good against them.  Look for around 1,000 total yards passing in Miami.

Devery Henderson: The DH has come up big in the playoffs so far.  Picking what receivers will get the yards and touchdowns for the Saints is a crapola shoot at best, but if you like riding the hot hand, and who doesn’t?, then get DH in your lineup.  I think the DH is allowed to play in a neutral stadium.

Brett Favre: He really did get beat like a 40 year old pinata, but made some amazing throws in the process.  His last throw was a pick, but I still can’t understand why Childress was running the ball and settling for a 51 yard field goal?  Then, after having too many men in the huddle, the Vikings were pretty much out of field goal range and Favre had to make a play, so he forced it like is his want to do, and got pickaruskied.  It wasn’t like they were on the five yard line and needed a chip shot to win it.  Whatever happens with Favre he proved that he can still play at an elite level, which just doesn’t happen with 40 year oldies.

Adrian Peterson: He had some great runs and three touchdowns and some really bad ball control, no not the Paris Hilton kind (sorry mom), but the fumbling kind.  He needs to figure some shizz out and quick.  He hasn’t lost his speed or moves or power, but he doesn’t look like he knows what the eighch he’s doing out there.  He just plows ahead with reckless abandon and coughs up the ball (see Paris Hilton) more than he should.  He had an amazing game statistically and there is no reason to think he will slow down fantasy wise.  So why should we care?!

Sidney Rice: He caught a touchdown, but saw a lot of double coverage, so Favre looked elsewhere.  Rice has the skills to be an elite #1 receiver in this league, but TJax isn’t the guy to help him remain an elitist.

Bernard Berrian: 102 yards receiving was his highest number for the season.  His age, injury proneness, competition, and possible loss of Favre make him free agency fodder in a lot of leagues next season.

Mark Sanchez: I was impressed by the Bearded-Sanchez.  When he needed to make throws he made them.  Ryan should have actually turned him loose in the early downs more often instead of plodding ahead with the ineffective running game, but what do I know? (don’t answer that).  Sanchez will continue to improve, but his fantasy value should still have a low ceiling (think Gandalf in Bag End) next year.  If they can keep Greene, Jones and Washington they should continue to run it down opponents’ throats.

Shonn Greene: He injured his ribs and only ended up with 10 carries for 48 yards, but he had already shown his ability in the games before this.  He is going to be super-hyped, especially if Thomas Jones is let go due to salary and oldness.  If that happens, I’ll probably be conducting the super-hype train.

Braylon Edwards: He ended up with 100 yards and a long touchdown which he amazingly caught.  Edwards must be a head case or maybe he just can’t catch, but he has the ability to get open and make amazing catches when the ball doesn’t hit him directly in the hands. I’ll always be wary of drafting him.

Jerricho Cotchery: Sanchez hooked up with Cotchery 5 times for 102 yards.  The Cotch Rocket is a steady receiver and should continue to be as Sanchez blossoms.  Looking back at what I just wrote I could be writing a review of a new ABC Family show. If they make a pregnancy pact I am going to freak out!

I’ve gone a mediocre 4-4 in the playoff games this season, so the odds of a 1-1 record today are very good.  My belief that the best passing teams will prevail is hurting my record; damn you Jets!  So will I learn from my mistakes?  Of course not!  Do you have more respect for the Jets now? Yes, yes I do Mr. or Mrs. Jets fan, but I also haven’t lost my respect for Peyton Manning.  The only way to stop Manning is to get to him, but to get to him the Jets will have to blitz and blitzing Peyton Manning is like Christmas morning at the Manning’s. Yes, if the Jets can run effectively they can hang with the Mannings, but the Colts, even though they can be soft up the middle, have a good record against tough rushing offenses.  The Manning’s defense did well against both Ray Rice and Chris Johnson this season.  I see Manning playing conservatively and not testing Revis that often, but that’s how they’ll win.  If he tries too hard to force the deep passes he’ll get picked and that’s what the Jets want.  He won’t give them what they want, but if they try sometimes they might find they get what they need.

The second game pits two very good offenses against each other.  I underestimated the Viking front seven’s ability to get to Tony Romo last week, but I feel a little better about the Saints’ offensive line at home where they can hear themselves think. It won’t be an easy task, protecting Brees, but it will be much more manageable in the Superdome.  It’s almost impossible to say who will come through for the Saints, but that’s one of the biggest reasons I like them this week.  Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Reggie Bush, Devery Henderson, Lynell Hamilton, Mike Bell, founder of Wendy’s Dave Thomas, Pierre Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, Robert Meachem, anyone of them could do something to put them over the top.  From top to bottom I believe the Vikings probably have a better team, but in the dome, and as long as Brees has time, I believe the Vikings pass defense is weak and Brees can beat guys with his deep balls.

All the NFL news that’s fit to link:

The Sporting News’ Vinnie Eyer gives us his Viewer’s Guide to Championship Sunday.

Scout.com does a great job of breaking down the games for this weekend.

Brian Burke from Advanced NFL Stats takes a look at the win probability for each team in today’s games at The Fifth Down.  People do not like stats, especially when they say your team is going to lose.  Yes, stats aren’t infallible, but they can tell you what has happened in the past, giving you at least a window into how a team performs in certain situations.

NFL Fanhouse gives us their start/sits for the championship games. I think we need to streamline “start/sit.”Maybe “starsit” or “stit” or “sitart”?

NBC and Rotoworld give us their X-Factors for today’s games. I love Rotoworld’s content, but I rather just have the text than all the photos.  Yes, you have the rights to Getty images, but that doesn’t mean you have to give more space to pics than words!  But, yes, I’m linking to them, because I like the brains behind and under the photos.

Squidbilly Early Cuyler gives us his Stone Cold Lock of the Century.

The Red Zone Report takes a look at the championship games.

Despite Percy Harvin’s troubles with migraines on Thursday and Friday he participated in practice and meetings on Saturday.

Cold Hard Football Facts presents their Real and Spectacular AFC and NFC championship game picks.

Matt Bowen of the National Football Post poses 10 questions for championship Sunday.

Eric Edholm of Pro Football Weekly looks at the possible Super Bowl matchups and their annoyance factors.  I personally would be annoyed the most by the Jets and the Vikings.

It’s been 17 years since two #1 seeds have faced each other in the Super Bowl and Pro Football Reference takes a look at the probabilities for all you stat geeks.