We have three weeks worth of stats, so it’s officially time to introduce “Points Allowed”. Our friends at myfantasyleague.com have given the Razzball community access to an all-inclusive site. Yes, free drinks, meals, and non-motorized water sports. The only thing you have to pay for is the women (pay meaning your date/spouse/affair; not prostitute). This site uses very common scoring systems for offense, team defense, individual defensive players (IDP), and kick/punt returners (avoid comparing offense to defense because the scoring is skewed way in favor of the offense). MFL’s clean engine allows users to breeze through all the positions in an effort to exploit or avoid match-ups. Whether it’s MFL or other “points allowed” features like the Pass Defense Strategery, multiple options allow the user to roll with their favorite. The site is also a great place to view stats not typically used for fantasy football. Rush Attempts, Average Yards per Rush, Targets, Kickoff Returns, and Punt Returns are all scored as zero points. They don’t affect fantasy scoring, but you’re still able to view the results in these categories by clicking on any of the Weekly Point Totals. The “Two Minute Drill” will be highlighting key season-to-date and past-few-weeks “Points Allowed” data throughout the entire season. It’s so cool it makes me want to dance.
Fantasy Football thoughts and opinions heading into NFL Week 4.
TE Brandon Pettigrew, Week 3: 11 Receptions, 13 Targets, 112 Receiving Yards. Poor running game leads to extra short pass opportunities.
It’s the little things that separate good receivers and great receivers and special receivers. Watch WR Calvin Johnsonattack the football instead of letting it come to him.
Finally some guts displayed by RB Felix Jones in Week 3: 14 Rushes, 115 Rushing Yards, 3 Receptions, 40 Receiving Yards.
It took the last real play of the game for LB Anthony Spencer owners to be rewarded. Box score says 4 Solos, 1 Sack, 1 FF regardless of when it happened.
I would have lost lots of money if I bet against LB Sean Lee being a Top 10 LB after three weeks. Shut up, you would have lost money too.
Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com stops by once a week to talk individual defensive players, “IDPs” for those in the know.
Fantasy championship week over at RapidDraft.com means someone is about to win $100,000 just for drafting some free fantasy football teams. Imagine the kind of overthinking that payoff must breed.
All you’re playing for is your buddy’s repurposed beer helmet that still smells bad but now has a third-place bowling trophy attached with duct tape and some really clever name like “Jabba the Hat.” Quit worrying so much. In many cases, it’s a time to use what’s been working, and we also might find some worthwhile nuggets amid this weekend’s four rematches.
One game in particular, San Francisco at St. Louis, carries some interesting points from last time. Troy Smith, who will apparently make his return to the lineup this week, started for the Niners in the first meeting and got sacked five times. In fact, three of the five teams Smith No. 2 (huh huh) faced got at least three sacks from their defensive linemen. The two that didn’t, Denver and Arizona, both run 3-4 bases. San Diego also got three sacks from linemen last week against Alex Smith, and San Francisco has allowed the sixth most sacks to linemen in the league this season. All of this is good news if you own James Hall or Chris Long.
Rams safety Craig Dahl enjoyed the defense’s biggest output in that meeting, producing 13 tackles (10 solo) and breaking up two passes. He’s been good for tackle numbers lately, and the best way for me to state my feeling might be to say that I claimed Dahl this week to start ahead of Cortland Finnegan.
The other side of the first meeting didn’t provide much fodder, but DE Justin Smith did go for six tackles (five solo) and a sack. St. Louis hasn’t yielded a bunch of sacks this year but has tied for second most solo tackles allowed to linemen and has provided the sixth most over the past five weeks. That makes Smith a decently safe option for the week.
Michael “The Tackle-Provider” Turner
The other three Week 16 rematches didn’t present many numbers of note. The one point I will bring up is that all three Saints linebackers reached double digits in tackles, with Jonathan Vilma and Jo-Lonn Dunbar each notching eight solos, in the Week 3 loss to Atlanta. That’s especially noteworthy for Dunbar, as he hasn’t made more than four solo stops in any other game and only reached that number twice. Similarly, Scott Shanle has only gotten to double digits one other time. No other outing has come within three total tackles of the 11 he had against Atlanta.
All of this means that Vilma is a good play this week and that the other guys carry a bit of sleeper value. Shanle would be the next one I’d use (well behind Vilma), with Danny Clark the other starter at this stage, having replaced Dunbar a while ago.
Jamar Chaney’s NFL Track Record Speaks for Itself
Sometimes you follow a gut feeling and make a worthless recommendation on a player for no reason and feel stupid afterward. (I, of course, would never do that.) Other times you might stifle such a feeling because you realize you really don’t have much to go on … like how I held back from saying anything about new Eagles middle linebacker Jamar Chaney heading into his first pro start last week against the Giants.
I’ve heard good things about Chaney since last draft season, but it’s not like I’m a tape-watching scout, especially with college players. Brian Baldinger, however, watches coaches’ tape (and freaks people out with that pinkie) and has deemed Chaney one of the league’s best middle men already. Now, I think it’s somewhat silly to present such a proclamation after the guy’s first start, but the important takeaway here is that Chaney was awesome his first time out.
This week he faces the Vikings, and although they haven’t provided a ton of tackles to linebackers, they did offer up enough Monday night on the ice to support the values of both Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.
(Thanks to RotoWorld’s Chris Wesseling for bringing the Baldinger article to my attention.)
Boy did we miss you, Brian
Check this out: Brian Dawkins has missed five games this season, and the Broncos have allowed 100 more rushing yards on average in those contests than in the nine he has played. Denver has allowed 3.9 yards per carry when Dawkins is around, compared with 5.7 when he’s gone. Now, two of those five games brought Darren McFadden, and another brought the Chiefs’ high-powered rushing attack, but there’s absolutely no excusing that difference.
What does that mean for IDP owners? Probably not a whole lot. I was just shocked by those numbers and felt like sharing them. What might matter more, though, is the fact that he returns to face a Houston team (anyone who saw the original Rollerball should be chanting right now) that has yielded the most fantasy points in the league this year to opposing defensive backs, as well as the league’s largest total over the past five weeks.
Whether Dawkins is being called on to help stop Arian Foster or busy chasing after another 50 Matt Schaub attempts, he should get chances to put up numbers. Of course, he’s practicing on a limited basis this week, so be careful and decide whether you’re willing to take the risk.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com and the brains behind (or would that be inside?) the “Suit” character in their free fantasy football game. Draft against him and 10 other fantasy Pros in RapidDraft Weekly every week (hence the name).
Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com stops by once a week to talk individual defensive players, “IDPs” for those in the know.
At this stage, I think we’re all just looking for some lineup help. Sticking to one main topic here just didn’t seem right, so I’ve decided to glance over a bunch. On that note, I implore you to get outcha seat and jump around …
Stud finder: Jared Allen
I’m pretty sure that the mere desire to mullet precludes one from fitting the traditional definition of “stud” – which includes an equine transformation and the best possible retirement – but there’s a reason that certain players achieve fantasy-stud status.
Allen came away from the season’s first seven games with all of one sack to his name. That’d be more than enough to earn a waive for Jared Odrick or Jared DeVries or that annoying Subway dude, but Allen has shown any owners who quit on him then why they shouldn’t have. With at least one sack in each of his past six outings, plus good tackle numbers, Allen has rewarded the patience of IDP owners who clung to him (not that there’s anything wrong with that) or grabbed him when another gave up.
Any “stud” who hasn’t delivered through 13 games no longer fits the category, but keep this lesson in mind as you worry about the star lineman who has had two sluggish games and next year when your “stud” lingers in the pasture.
Jets could use pills: No Woody this week
This could be another good week to have LaMarr Woodley, and not just because the presence of two “Wood” names in the same segment multiplies the potential for locker-room jokes. Pittsburgh’s LOLB (and I ain’t laughing out loud, buddy) is coming off a two-sack game and faces a Jets offense playing without right tackle Damien Woody. With a hobbled Woody (ouch) in the lineup last week, Miami sacked Mark Sanchez six times.
Finnegan begin again
Another rematch with the Texans: good week for Cortland Finnegan, right? Well, there’s always the chance that he matches up with Andre Johnson a fair amount and puts up some solo tackles, but don’t be fooled. In his past three meetings with Houston, Finnegan has been punched in the face (three) several more times than he has broken up a pass (zero). He also produced just 14 solo tackles total in that stretch: four, six and four. My initial reaction was to bet on Finnegan seeing plenty of action this week, but recent history tells us that we can’t count on it.
Wake good enough to get a sack on a Friday?
As I write this, the Dolphins are in the process of trying to get a “team” sack in the victory over the Jets credited to Cameron Wake alone. That would bump his league-leading total to 15 with a couple of upcoming matchups that would seem likely to add to the total.
The Bills and Lions, however, have actually fared much better in pass protection than anyone could’ve expected. Each offense carries a sacks-allowed total among the 12 lowest in the league. Combine Detroit’s number with the large tally of pass attempts, and the Lions rank fourth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. Of course, I mention those numbers just to impress you with my research (well, that and to point out that Buffalo and Detroit aren’t the pushovers you might automatically think for pass rushers).
Wake has produced at least one sack in four straight games and hasn’t had back-to-back no-sack outings all year. He had a sack and two pass breakups in the first meeting with Buffalo this year. Clay Matthews (perhaps the most similar comparison around for Wake) had a sack in each meeting with the Lions this year.
Goombas send Mario to IR
Mario Williams’ standard modest tackle totals likely mean that his departure for injured reserve this week isn’t crushing too many IDP owners, but the three sacks over his final three games might leave you looking for a starting replacement. Don’t let that guy be Williams’ real-life replacement, Mark Anderson, who has just one sack in his past four games and 12.5 total sacks in four seasons since the 12-sack rookie year in which he obviously fooled us all by paying Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila to wear his jersey.
Here are some guys you can use, though, who might be available:
John Abraham, Atlanta: He’s probably not out there in most leagues because Abraham – like Wake – hasn’t seen consecutive sack-free games all year (except when watching Kroy Biermann). If he is available, though, grab the guy with five sacks in his past four games, including a pair of two-sack outings. Seattle and New Orleans await … nervously.
Charles Johnson, Carolina: If I asked you to guess which D-lineman has led the position in tackles over the past five weeks, would you choose Johnson? (You’d be fairly ignorant not to, since the question is posed in Johnson’s entry.) Add that to a four-game sack streak and you have a guy fixin’ to cash in as a free agent … you know, whenever another NFL season actually happens.
Jeremy Mincey, Jacksonville: The Jaguars have had a crappy pass rush for a while now, and the season-ending injury to Aaron Kampman didn’t figure to help things. However, Mincey has stepped up with sacks in three of his five starts, including four over the past four games. The Colts don’t exactly present the greatest matchup for sackers, but Mincey actually notched his first sack of the season against Indy despite limited playing time at that point. Week 16 brings a Washington offense tied for most sacks allowed in the league over the past five weeks.
Jets-Steelers matchup anything but safe
Already without Jim Leonhard, the Jets will also head to Pittsburgh this weekend without Eric Smith at the back of the defense. James Ihedigbo is apparently expected to start in his place but wasn’t healthy enough to practice doing so on Thursday. On the other side, the Steelers don’t expect to have Troy Polamalu – ostensibly because he lost his cleats in his hair while shooting the most recent Head & Shoulders spot.
All of those injuries would seem to make testing the deep coverage attractive for a couple of struggling pass offenses. That could mean some deep sleeper value for players such as CB Ike Taylor, S Ryan Clark, S Brodney Pool and S Ihedigbo, who has three sacks this season. Just remember that “deep sleeper” means, “hey, I’m hurting at DB, why not take a chance on that guy?” as opposed to “I just read about this dude in an IDP column; I’m starting him over Yeremiah Bell.”
Light the matchups
Finally allow me to offer up some basic, context-free matchup numbers. I’ve chosen to combine the 10 most generous offenses in terms of fantasy points allowed over the past five weeks with the 10 teams that have simply yielded the most solo tackles to each position group. The resultant groups below comprise those teams that appeared among both top 10s. I figure that accounts for high scoring while also filtering out teams that have seen numbers inflated by a few big plays. Do with it what you will …
DB – Indianapolis, Houston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Jacksonville, Cincinnati
LB – N.Y. Jets (No. 1 in both fantasy points and solo tackles allowed), Buffalo, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Cleveland – Cincinnati and Oakland, for what it’s worth, yielded a sizable number of sacks and pass breakups to linebackers recently.
DL – Washington, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Chicago, Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Dallas – These teams have allowed 10 sacks or more to linemen over their past five games: Washington (12), San Francisco (12), Chicago (11), Pittsburgh (10.5), Miami (10), Baltimore (10)
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com and the brains behind (or would that be inside?) the “Suit” character in their free fantasy football game. Draft against him and 10 other fantasy Pros in RapidDraft Weekly every week (hence the name).
Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com stops by once a week to talk individual defensive players, “IDPs” for those in the know.
There are a bunch of rematch games on the Week 13 schedule – eight, to be exact. (That’s the metric-system measure for a “bunch.”) I have no idea how this compares with upcoming weeks because I’m too lazy to go through those lists, but it presents some interesting fodder for fantasy consideration.
Basing expectations on what happened in one previous game can get you into trouble, but we’d also be foolish to ignore those results. Because I prefer to limit my foolishness to getting into an argument with any of the females in my house, let’s take a look at what IDP owners might glean from the prior matches that predate the Week 13 “re-.” Not every game presents worthwhile IDP storylines from the earlier meetings, but here are some points of note …
DENVER at KANSAS CITY
Champ Bailey turned in, by far, his largest tackle numbers of the season in the Week 10 meeting with the Chiefs. His 10 total stops in that game make up more than a quarter of his season tally (36), and only one other game presented even half as many solos as his nine against Kansas City. Teammate Mario Haggan enjoyed his most productive game of the season, combining three sacks with a forced fumble and six solos.
The bad news for those guys is that Denver’s quick, huge lead in that contest pressed Kansas City into an inordinate number of pass plays. Matt Cassel threw 53 times in that game. He has attempted no more than 35 passes in any other game. Unless you’re expecting another Denver blowout – which must mean that you only watched the Broncos in that week and no other – it seems a relative certainty that the Chiefs will run a lot more. Bailey might still get his because someone will have to try to get in Dwayne Bowe’s way, but don’t look for special numbers from Haggan again. Cassel suffered four sacks in that game and three in each of the two that preceded it. He hasn’t been sacked more than once in any other outing this season, though.
On the other side, Derrick Johnson made 12 solo tackles as Knowshon Moreno surpassed 15 carries for just the second time all year. Denver is likely to run the ball less, but Johnson has been too good this year for that to affect our outlook much.
CHICAGO at DETROIT
First of all, there’s Lance Briggs and his affinity for facing the Lions. He made 10 tackles (nine solo) and forced a fumble in the first meeting this year, the fourth straight time he notched at least nine tackles. The one before that merely ended with eight tackles (seven solo) and a half-sack. I’m still in the process of deciding who to sit among him, Derrick Johnson and Karlos Dansby in one league and can guarantee that I won’t feel good about benching any.
For the Lions, sacking came easy back in Week 1. Detroit’s young defensive line took Jay Cutler down four times, with three coming from defensive tackles Ndamukong Suh, Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill. Suh and Williams are options this week in deepish IDP leagues.
Kyle Vanden Bosch didn’t get a sack in that game but did produce a whopping 11 tackles, including 10 solos. He’s doubtful this time around, but likely replacement Turk McBride notched a sack in that first meeting. The Eagles also got two sacks from that right end spot against the Bears last week, and the 4-3 opponent before that notched one from Jared Allen. KVB’s tackle numbers only add to McBride’s sleeper value this week.
OAKLAND at SAN DIEGO
No team comes within four sacks of the 18 that Oakland has yielded to linebackers so far, and Kevin Burnett collected two of those when last he faced the Raiders. Shaun Phillips may not have broken in that game, but there’s reason to believe he can produce at least one sack for the third straight game this weekend.
On the Raiders’ side, Michael Huff enjoyed a huge game against the Chargers last time with 11 tackles (nine solo), a sack and a forced fumble. Both his numbers and those that the Chargers have given to opposing defensive backs have been smaller otherwise, but conditions could play to Huff’s favor again – especially if MLB Rolando McClain misses the game or is limited.
BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
When last these two teams met, Ravens lineman Haloti Ngata produced the largest tackle total of his career (11 total, eight solo). Pittsburgh played that game with Charlie Batch doing a poor Ben Roethlisberger impression, though, attempting just 21 passes (plus two sacks) to the team’s 27 rushing attempts. Large Ben, by comparison, hasn’t attempted fewer than 27 passes in any game.
That doesn’t mean that Ngata won’t get tackle chances, of course. Rashard Mendenhall ranks second in the league in total carries, and the Steelers sit tied for sixth in the league in rushes per game. Ngata also collected a sack in that first meeting this season, a feat he also achieved in the second game against Pittsburgh last year. He’s a fine option for D-line requirements this week.
For the Steelers, Lamarr Woodley has been somewhat more mortal this season than late in 2009, including an unimpressive stat line against Baltimore. Last season, however, he totaled 17 tackles (14 solo) and three sacks in the two matchups. Despite not recording a sack in the first 2010 game, Woodley did notch a quarterback hit and a tackle for loss.
N.Y. JETS at NEW ENGLAND
Tully Banta-Cain always stands out to me for a name that befits a Star Wars villain, but he stood out in this season’s loss to the Jets with eight solo tackles and a sack. That might not be worth making a big fuss about, but he also recorded two sacks in 2009’s second meeting with New York. I’m not looking to him as a lock for good numbers, by any means, but Banta-Cain carries some sleeper potential.
OTHER WEEK 13 NOTES
Carlos Dunlap, DE, Bengals: Cincinnati’s second-round rookie has three sacks over his past three games, but faces a New Orleans team this week that has only allowed 15 through 11 games. That doesn’t make for a good matchup, but neither did the Colts or Jets, each of whom rank among Football Outsiders´top 13 in adjusted sack rate. Dunlap is still a part-time player but should be in for more snaps with DE Antwan Odom this week joining DE Frostee Rucker (and other linemen) on injured reserve. Sack-heavy leagues should take note.
Colts O-line: Left tackle Charlie Johnson has been sidelined by a back injury in practice this week. His “questionable” designation doesn’t tell us much because in Colts parlance that means “he’s on our roster,” but Johnson would apparently be replaced by Jeff Linkenbach if he can’t go. Linkenbach was last seen filling in so well at right guard on Sunday night that Al Michaels made a “weakest link” joke. DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer would be happy to make some more jokes this weekend.
Matt Roth, OLB, Browns: Roth has said several times this week that he harbors no ill feelings for the Dolphins, who unexpectedly waived him during the 2009 season. All that tells me is that he’s a much smarter diplomat than former teammate Channing Crowder. You can bet that Roth would love to stick it to his former team, and his 1.5 sacks and five total QB hits over the past two weeks suggest he could do it. Miami hasn’t allowed a ton of sacks but did yield three to the Raiders last week. Beyond Week 13, it also shouldn’t hurt that Roth is playing for a contract.
Jake Delhomme, QB, Browns: Delhomme’s obviously not a player that you can plug into an IDP position, but he sure can help the defensive backs that you do. Delhomme has tossed two interceptions in each of his three outings this season. He also has been responsible for 13 of the 34 passes that Cleveland opponents have defensed all year. In three games. One he didn’t even start.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com and the brains behind (or would that be inside?) the “Suit” character in their free fantasy football game. Draft against him and 10 other fantasy Pros in RapidDraft Weekly every week (hence the name).
Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com stops by once a week to talk individual defensive players, “IDPs” for those in the know.
In plenty of cases, it’s certainly the time of year to give up on some guys that had you hoping back in August but have left you cussing ever since. Sometimes it’s worth continuing to hold on, though.
When I saw someone drop Jared Allen in the BlogTalkRadio Hosts Gold League, I said to myself: “Self, you’re not getting a ton of production from your DL spot anyway, and Allen has the Cardinals up next. Let’s take a shot.” That shot got me and myself 2.5 sacks and Allen’s best fantasy output of the season — more than doubling his 2010 sack total.
Still ahead for Allen are two meetings with the Bears (the first this week) and matchups with Washington, Buffalo and Philadelphia — all of whom rank among the league’s top half in most sacks allowed and 25th or worse in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.
For Allen’s previous owner — which just happened to be the team I beat by 3 points — the drop made sense. For me, it was easy to take a chance on a guy with such a long record of production, even if the record had been skipping this season.
I’m not saying that you shouldn’t quit on anyone who is underperforming compared with his career numbers. Just keep in mind factors such as upcoming matchups, the potential reward of the player for whom you’d be dropping him and the potential for streakiness at his position.
Now, because this week has been chockfull of defensive-player news, let’s sort through some headlines and guess at … er, I mean, analyze … the IDP impact.
Dan Connor to finish season at home with Roseanne
The Panthers’ 2010 middle man injured his hip last week and hit injured reserve at the beginning of this one. The loss of Connor from the lineup shouldn’t crush anyone’s fantasy dreams, as he tied for a mere 36th in total tackles among linebacker through his final game of the year. More important is what the injury does for Jon Beason.
Beason slid out to the weak side in training camp to cover for the loss of Thomas Davis. Connor’s departure moves Beason back to the spot at which he has been one of the league’s finest IDP producers over the past three seasons. He hasn’t been terrible to date in 2010, but those who drafted him were probably hoping for something more than a guy tied for 17th in solo stops with no big-play numbers. The re-shift should not only help Beason’s tackle production but get him back into position for some plays in pass defense. He grabbed three interceptions in each of the past two seasons.
Back on the outside, meanwhile, former Bills linebacker and college safety Nic Harris appears targeted for first crack at filling in. It would be surprising if he nails down the job the rest of the way, though. The Panthers also picked up recent Cowboys cut Jason Williams and signed Abdul Hodge earlier this season. Either of those players could enter the mix at some point, with Hodge bringing some middle-linebacker background. IDP owners should probably hope for Harris or Williams to satisfy Carolina coaches so that there isn’t motivation to slide Beason outside once again and install Hodge in the middle.
Brian Cushing back to old ways, just without a needle
So the Cushing-in-the-middle experiment didn’t work out, and we probably should have expected it. His name doesn’t fit the scenario nearly as well as “Malcolm.”
After two games of weak run D and lackluster tackle totals for Cushing, Houston will slide him back to the strong side and insert Kevin Bentley inside. This can obviously only help Cushing, as anyone who paid attention to him last year is well aware of the numbers he can produce in the right setting. (Of course, we might be getting our first look at the steroid-free version, so who really knows?) Bentley could prove more comfortable in the middle than Cushing did, as Bentley has been the primary backup for DeMeco Ryans. He isn’t likely to be a three-down player, though, and shouldn’t be looked to for big numbers.
D.J. could use a DD … allegedly
It was announced Friday that Denver inside linebacker D.J. Williams was arrested on “suspicion of DUI,” which either means he did it, has odd-smelling breath or is a really bad driver. As I write this, Williams’ playing status for Sunday has been deemed “uncertain” as Josh McDaniels gathers more information. Can anyone remember the last time an NFL team voluntarily suspended a good player because of a DUI, though? If this season has taught us anything, it’s that Williams will be “suspended” for the first quarter of the Week 10 game and then spend the final three quarters putting together the game of his life. The matchup with the active running game of the Chiefs certainly makes Williams worth waiting on.
Should further “information” actually lead to Williams finding the bench for the full game, Wesley Woodyard would presumably step in. Woodyard has proved productive in limited duty in the past. Mario Haggan would be the safer option for tackle numbers, though.
Aaron Kampman needs to be more careful with his ACLs
Almost exactly a year after ending a season with a torn ACL, Kampman will now miss the rest of 2010 because he tore the other one. It’s not fun to see such a likable player suffer another big injury, but the fact that the loss of a four-sack guy robs Jacksonville of its lead pass rusher tells you just how relevant the situation is for fantasy owners.
Moneyball
Michael Lewis recently joined the Rams, and it appears that he’ll see his first action with team No. 3 this weekend against team No. 2.
The guy who walked out on the Niners after losing snaps to rookie Taylor Mays earlier this season has reunited with Steve Spagnuolo in St. Louis. Spags was coaching defensive backs in Philadelphia — as a job, not just because he felt like it — when the Eagles drafted Lewis back in 2002, and the two both left Philly after 2006. Spagnuolo has already said he believes Lewis has “a lot of football left,” and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a good number of snaps for the safety against his old team.
The fact that it will be his first on-field action as a Ram and that Lewis won’t start means he shouldn’t be used in fantasy, but it’s not a stretch to imagine him making his way into the lineup before the year is over. Lewis has been a strong tackle producer throughout his career and would see plenty of opportunities at the back of the St. Louis defense.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com and the brains behind (or would that be inside?) the “Suit” character in their free fantasy football game. Draft against him and 10 other fantasy Pros in RapidDraft Weekly every week (hence the name).
Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com stops by once a week to talk individual defensive players, “IDPs” for those in the know.
Well, to those of you who drafted DeMeco Ryans, I’m sorry. I didn’t tear his Achilles tendon or anything, but any fantasy player can sympathize with losing a top 15 player at his position to injury.
Rather than wallow in the loss, however – especially because I’m not really sure how to get inside something and wallow – we have to move forward and project the impact.
Zach Diles appears to be the guy targeted to replace Ryans in the middle when the Texans return from a Week 8 bye, and he’s given fantasy owners plenty of reason to take notice. Two years ago, Diles grabbed the starting strongside job and was leading his team in tackles when a broken leg (in practice) ended his season before the ninth game. His tackle totals through eight games projected to 132 total and 94 solo over a full season, which would have placed him tied for eighth and 13th in the league, respectively.
Thereafter, Diles jumped to the weak side – a playmaking spot on most defenses but the less numbers-relevant outside job in Houston – and produced weak numbers in 2009, then pedestrian totals so far this year.
The move inside should put him in line for more chances, though, especially considering the success Kansas City had running the ball on Sunday. Through six games, Houston has faced the 10th fewest carries per week in the league, which made sense after five weeks. To that point, the Texans had allowed just less than 3.6 yards per rush. The Chiefs, however, beat up Houston for 228 yards on the ground and 6 per attempt. That average was pumped up by even stronger rushing success after Ryans had left the game.
At the least, opponents should be expected to test the run defense a bit more going forward, and Ryans’ absence should make Diles more of a three-down player. He’s not verging on fantasy stardom, but those in decently deep IDP leagues should pay attention – even if Houston’s first two games back bring pass-happy Indianapolis and San Diego. (more…)
Most who follow Matt Schauf of RapidDraft.com on Twitter seethe at each “IDP” tag and wonder how he can make light of internally displaced persons. In this case, however, we’re talking individual defensive players, who add realism to your fake football leagues and gripes for the whiny leaguemate who always finishes last anyway. Schauf will be stopping by once a week to help you beat ol’ whiny even worse.
Fair warning: This post isn’t for the faint of heart. It’s chock full of sorrowful injury stories and awesome names.
Take Mathias Kiwanuka, for starters (not literally, as that would be kidnapping). The guy is off to a strong start in what seems likely to become his most productive pro season to date. Instead of getting in on the Chicago sack party, though, he faces a back issue that will either keep him out for just a week or forever (slight exaggeration), depending on what the next doctor says.
At the least, IDP owners must figure they won’t have Kiwanuka in the short term. The positive side of this, though, is that it means more playing time for another very good player. Osi Umenyiora stepped in for three sacks on Sunday night and has produced double digits in that category in two of the past four seasons – the only two in which he started every game. Meetings with Houston and Detroit could prove productive the next two weeks for Umenyiora.
Another lineman has a more definite but less optimistic outlook than Kiwanuka’s. Derrick Morgan’s rookie season has come to an end, as the Titans’ first-round pick landed on injured reserve with a torn ACL. Fortunately for Tennessee, DE Jacob Ford could return from his own knee injury as soon as this week, which would certainly help the pass rush.
This week’s matchup with Dallas probably won’t do much for IDP owners, as Tony Romo got sacked just once through the first three games, but Jacksonville and Philadelphia should prove more vulnerable in the ensuing weeks.
At the other end of the defense sits another rookie with a torn ACL. Morgan Burnett became a Packer in Round 3 and seemed to almost immediate carve out a starting role. Now that he’s done for the season, however, his misfortune creates an opportunity for a guy with more experience and a longer injury history.
Atari Bigby broke through in 2007 with a season that was solid enough statistically and seemed to promise further upside, especially based on how he performed in the playoffs that season (well). Since then, however, Bigby has been riddled with injuries, missing more than half of 2008 and five starts last season. He did at least pick off four passes in 2009, but began this season on the physically unable to perform list. He can’t return until Week 7 because of that designation, but Bigby could step immediately into the starting lineup when he’s ready. At the least, he’s worth keeping an eye on.
Speaking of safeties with really cool names, Oshiomogho Atogwe – don’t trust anyone who refers to him simply as “O.J.” – missed the Week 4 start because of a bruised thigh. I always find a “bruise” to be a funny reason for missing a professional sporting event, but I suppose you have to play at that level to know what an NFL bruise is like.
Even though he didn’t start the game, Atogwe did play and came out fine. That would seem to indicate a return to normal activities in Week 5, and normal activities when facing Shaun Hill tend to include interceptions. Atogwe has been the rare player to consistently produce turnover numbers in his career, with eight interceptions in 2007 and five picks and six forced fumbles in 2008 before injury marred last season. Two weeks after Detroit, Atogwe gets consecutive young quarterbacks in Josh Freeman and Jimmy Clausen who could be prone to errors.
One other safety, Roman Harper missed Week 4 outright and will have to be watched by fantasy owners this time around. His hamstring injury is apparently not thought to be serious, but that kind of thing can often linger for a while. If he can get healthy soon, a strong slate of games awaits.
Finally, it can often be tough to extract fantasy points from cornerbacks, but Terrence McGee has been a solid producer when healthy. The only problem has been that “when healthy” part, as McGee missed nine starts over the past two seasons.
In his place, second-year man Leodis McKelvin got the nod and also got burned by a pump fake and Braylon Edwards. McKelvin was a first-round pick in 2008 but already made his way out of the lineup. He’s filling in for McGee for at least one more week and should be targeted by the Jaguars, at least as long as the team remembers Mike Sims-Walker exists.
Beyond being a target for targets, McKelvin also brings top-notch return skills, which can make him a constant big-play threat. We’ll see what he can do this week and whether he remains relevant beyond.
Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for RapidDraft.com and the brains behind (or would that be inside?) the “Suit” character in their free fantasy football game. Draft against him and 10 other fantasy Pros in RapidDraft Weekly every week (hence the name).
