Fantasy Football Advice

I have a good time looking at stats during the season.  What team can’t stop running backs from carving them up like Freddy Krueger on a dream vacation? Or what wide receiver has been targeted 98.7 percent of the time in the red zone and will soon score 15 touchdowns a game?  But when it comes to quantifying fantasy draft statistics my brain shrinks like Beetlejuice’s in death’s waiting room.  So I thought I would get a head start this year.  I have theories that I feel are strong, such as, don’t grab a QB with the first 2-3 picks and don’t grab a D/ST or kicker until the last 2 rounds, and don’t draft Clinton Portis no matter how often you cross dress while wearing plastic pig noses.

So I thought I’d do some preliminary numbers crunching out here in the open.  All these numbers come from looking at a 12 team league/1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 Flex/1 K/1 D with 2009 ESPN scoring results. You can see the points that each position scored from 1-12, 13-24, and so on, depending on how many total possible starters.  And I’ve also added last year’s average draft position for the first 1-12, 13-24, and so on, for each position.

At first take it’s easy to see the need for drafting RB/WR early and often.  So much of draft analysis is based on ADP.  If everybody in your league were to take quarterbacks in the first round you would have to follow suit no matter how insane they are, but thankfully only a few people end up grabbing a QB instead of a top RB/WR.

These numbers are fairly expansive and don’t show the whole picture.  But I do believe these numbers can give you a basic overview of how drafts play out.  I plan on looking at ADP versus actual point production next.  I believe WR/QB will probably come closer to meeting ADP than running backs will, which might lead some to push the WR/QB method, but that’s kind of like telling your girlfriend that she can’t get pregnant if you consummate your lust in a pool or while reciting the alphabet.  Yeah, it might give you some instant gratification, but there’s a good chance you’ll be changing your team’s poo-filled diapers at some point in the season.

Quarterbacks: 12 Starters

1-12: 216–327, ADP: 11–80

Running Backs: 24-36 Starters

1-12: 177–329, ADP: 1–21

13-24: 136–166, ADP: 24-65

25-36: 103–132, ADP: 65-107

Wide Receivers: 36-48 Starters

1-12: 155–205, ADP: 8–38

13-24:121–150, ADP: 39–70

25-36: 97–120, ADP: 74–104

37-48: 80-95, ADP: 109–149

Tight Ends: 12-24 Starters

1-12: 91–168, ADP: 40–123

13-24: 44-90 ADP: 124–197

The wildcard weekend is upon us!  All stats are for the last 7 games and are rankings, the lower the number the better!  It’s all very complicated.  I had to call Stephen Hawking, but all I could get was his answering machine.

Pass Defense:

Rush Defense:

For this week I decided to tweak the rushing defensive stats a bit.  It always seems odd that we don’t take into account how defenses defend running back receptions.  In fantasy, receiving yards count just as much to a RB as they do to a receiver.  So I added that little nugget in there.  See what you think!

Oh, and yes, enter our week 16 contest.  It’s fun and educational!

It’s down to the wire and you need all the stats to cram into your head like the stuffing you’re cramming into that dead bird. So here you go!

Oh, and if you haven’t done it yet, enter our week 16 contest. It’ll help you lose weight over the holidays.

This has been a strange year when it comes to fantasy defenses.  There really are no defenses that feel like every week starts. The Eagles are the number one fantasy defense and they were recently destroyed by Little Brother.  New Orleans has been number one for much of the season and are only a point behind the Eagles right now and they were counted coup on by the Washington Native Americans. The third ranked defense in fantasy just gave up over 500 yards to Big Ben!  So tell me when it’s safe to start a defense, cuz I’m getting a little skittish!

But we keep on, keeping on! There do look like some good matchups for championship weekend.  I’ve broken down the matchups by fantasy points given up to defenses by offenses, average fantasy points scored by offenses in the last 8 weeks, and average fantasy points scored by defenses in the last 8 weeks, or FPGUTDBO/AFPSBOITLEW/AFPSBDITLEW, just to streamline things.

Somehow KC got into the top 5 here.  Cincinnati’s recent offensive woes coupled with KC getting a lot of turnovers of late causes a bit of an anomaly in the chart, but overall I feel like it is a good gauge of this week’s defensive matchups.  A nice trend I see in these top matchups are that many are at home for your D/ST plays.  New Orleans, Arizona, Green Bay, San Francisco, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Cincinnati are all at home and all are good plays.

And before you do anything, make sure you enter our week 16 contest.  If you don’t, Santa will skip your house and have his reindeer, um, evacuate all over your car.