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After enjoying  a great NCAA basketball game between Kentucky and Michigan and throwing about 100 pitches to my 11 year old son in the cage, I find myself sitting in front of the tube watching the the Dodgers and Padres game, and my mind immediately wanders to fantasy football. I’m still sick about how Reggie Bush and Adrian Peterson let me down late in the year and I ask the question, “Were these two guys over rated?” I grabbed Peterson with the first pick last year and Bush with my third. Having those two on the bench at the end of the year was like realizing what your first girl friend looks like without all that make up on. Extremely disappointing.

How do we stay out of the mess of picking guys too soon or paying too much for a player that could under perform? Stay away from the hype. Let’s take a look at a few players that are going to be highly touted next year, but aren’t going to bring home the bacon.

Maurice Jones-Drew is the first player I would watch out for. I know we try to collect running backs during the draft while we make fun of some idiot for drafting his favorite players from his favorite team, but don’t get Jones-Drew too early. There is nothing worse than counting on a RB that is splitting time with another one. I know Darren McFadden isn’t the same runner he used to be, but he is still going to get a lot of carries, leaving Jones-Drew on the side lines more than you would like. There’s nothing wrong with taking Jones-Drew, but if he’s your best RB,  you’re going to feel like the short guy waiting in line to get his calendar signed by Miss July. Everybody staring at you knowing you don’t have a chance.

It’s been interesting watching the Jets go crazy this year during free agency. You can tell organizations that are train wrecks when they just sign guys just to stay in the headlines. Grabbing Eric Decker from the Broncos was a decent move, but Decker can kiss those stats he’s been putting up good-bye. I’m not going to knock Decker for wanting to make more money, but he’s got to know that he’s headed for anonymity in that mess the Jets call an offense. All of you that stole Decker last year in a later round, wait another two rounds this year to draft him and then cut his stats in half. Not going to be pretty.

Two years ago I looked like the fantasy genius that I am when I was running Colin Kaepernick out very week and he was killing it for me. Last year he was the first QB I took and I was ready to shoot myself after week 4. He would literally have one good week out of four. Half way through the year I found myself blindfolded in my basement throwing a dart at a picture of him and a pic of Philip Rivers, trying to decide which one to start. Sit back and wait for Kaepernick to drop and only get him as your back up. I know that watching him kiss his tattooed laden biceps in the end zone gets you excited, but take it easy. He’s going to be all flash next year.

Look me up next week for a few more players that will make your mouth water but will eventually have you wishing you would have ordered something else.

 

Follow Walt on twitter.

 

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  1. Fantasy with Dase or Days

    Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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    Starting in week 13, that is when Colin Kaepernick had Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis all on the field together in 2013.
    In the following five games, he had a stat line of:
    232 passing yards
    1.4 passing touchdowns
    .2 interceptions
    33.8 rushing yards
    .2 rushing touchdowns

    In these five games, he threw for at least 203 yards in three games. Before Crabtree was on the field (weeks 1-12), he only had three games exceeding that mark. In each of these five games, he tossed at least one touchdown. Also, he rushed for at least 42 yards in two of these games. In those two games you are getting rewarded with an extra passing touchdown.

    Overall, he earned 95 fantasy points in standard (ESPN) scoring, that is strong (very) QB1 fantasy production. The trio of passing options will be all on the football field from the start this year. So, I find it interesting that you would think of him as only a QB2 option for fantasy owners. Plus, he is being drafted with the first pick in the 9th round as the 10th QB over at myfantasyleague. This will allow you to load up on RBs, WRs & TE and then draft a QB like Kaepernick.

    • walt

      walt says:
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      @Fantasy with Dase or Days: One thing I’ve learned after fifteen years of marriage… some arguments you just aren’t going to win. I would draft Kaep as a QB1 if he’s there in the 9th round also. If he’s there, you should win your league b/c you must play with morons.I guess I should have been more clear with my definition of over rated…He’s not a top 50 player and if you are going to win your league, your QB better be a top 50 performer.

      • Fantasy with Dase or Days

        Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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        @walt: hahaha Dang! That is a very harsh statement. Over at MFL were I got the ADP data, they have done or currently drafting for 147 drafts. So you are accusing a lot of fantasy owners of being morons. I’m just going off of what you said and originally you did not want him as a QB1 but now you would if you can draft him as the 10th QB off the board? Also, one last note and that is over these last eight games (including playoffs) had/would have made him one of the top fantasy point producers among all players. So for you to say he is not a top 50 player with no hesitation is absurd. He has the tools of passing and running and weapons around him to easily finish in the top 50 and be one of the top fantasy players in 2014.

        I do agree with one of your statements and that is you can’t win this argument lol

  2. walt

    Walt says:
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    I think you might have made my point for me. In a 12 team league, if you take kaepernick in the 9th rd, you make him roughly the 100th player drafted. If you are taking tight ends in front of him, you are definitely not over rating him.

    Don’t fall in love with his stat line for the last five games of last year, there were a couple of weak teams in there and he’s not going to do as well against the rams as he did last year. They will be much better.

    • Fantasy with Dase or Days

      Fantasy with Dase or Days says:
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      @Walt: Let’s start with your notion in your last statement of your response. Let’s delve a bit deeper and look at the three playoff games.
      His stat line look like
      192 passing yards
      1 touchdown
      1 interception
      81 rushing yards
      .3 touchdowns

      In these three games, he had a total of 59 points in standard (ESPN) scoring. That is actually a little bit better then the previous five games.

      I also am not connecting the dots on how I am making your point? You said that he is overrated and we should look to draft him only as a second quarterback. I brought up his ADP due to the fact that he is not being drafted in the territory of overrated. In fact his ADP is allowing him to possible represent extremely awesome value for fantasy owners in 2014. With a healthy Crabtree and his history of not just the previous eight games but going back to the previous year with a healthy Crabtree that you could think of him as only a QB2.

  3. Myles says:
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    Damn, that’s some serious Jets hate. I think you’re right that Decker won’t have as good of a year as he did with Manning. Couldn’t be more off about the Jets “going crazy” in FA for headlines. They currently have the most cap room in the NFL, with their GM being extremely prudent and trying to build through the draft. The media is now getting on their case for not being flashy enough in FA and some fans are getting restless. I like the approach though.

    • walt

      Walt says:
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      @Myles: Regardless of how much money the Jets have spent, I think the signing of Michael Vick falls under the ‘going crazy’ category.

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