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Yes, I went with that title. Don’t ask me why I thought that would bring in readership.  I’m actually assuming it’ll scare most off but you’re gonna miss out on the meaning if you just freak out about how I said ‘prom’ in the title.  We can’t all be Will Ferrell with our marketing strategies.  Not everyone can come up with ‘Talladega Nights: The Ballad Of Ricky Bobby’…damn messed up genius that man is sometimes.  Ahem, Semi-Pro?  I did say sometimes, imaginary reader.  However I didn’t just put that title out there hoping everyone would misread it as ‘porn’ to click on it.  Though that would’ve been a better idea no doubt.  No, I’m going to take you back to that time in your life when your priorities were messed up and you didn’t know what you wanted but you knew you wanted it now.  So without further reveal, let’s take a look at a draft strategy for 2013 fantasy football that I’ve stupidly titled the prom analogy…

So the prom analogy plays on your inner teenager.  You remember that kid, right?  He/She/It had that bad acne and pictures of Luke Perry or Tiffany Amber-Thiesen – or both – plastered all over their locker.  That kid had a ton of friends that they’d come to find out later were actually acquaintances that they’d lose touch with.  Thanks, now if you’ll excuse me I’ll go off myself.  I swear I’m not trying to depress you, I’m simply trying to set the tone, I.R.!  Could you do it faster then before I stick my head in the oven?  Duly noted, trudging on.  Well you see, that kid thought they had it all figured out.  They knew more then everyone and that includes the you that you are now.  Everything that was important was clear to them.  So when prom time came, they knew who they wanted to go to the dance with.  He/She/It had a great smile, was funny and had a great head on their shoulders.  But they never did.  They weren’t valued by your peers enough to be recognized as a great catch.  They’d just laugh at you, your inner voice whispered.  You can’t have that, they’re not the right one.  But of course, it’s Prom.  You can’t just NOT go to Prom.  Everyone goes so you have to too, right?  So you go with that one friend.  You know that one.  They kinda like you, you’re not really all that interested in them but they don’t make you look bad so it works out.  Prom goes over fine but you didn’t have the fun you thought you would and you can’t quite place why.  But looking back on those times in your current state of mind, you realize going to the prom with someone you like is more important then just the prom itself.  So how does this relate to Fantasy Football you ask?  There’s a lot of data out there for fantasy sports nowadays and people can literally drowned, getting lost in the reasons why they go to the prom/draft in this silly game.  If you drafted by the numbers and by the ADP value plays all the time, I can promise you the fun isn’t going to be there.  You have to like who you take to the prom with you to enjoy the dance just as much as you have to like the picks you make to enjoy your success within a fantasy football season.  For example, Murph brought up on twitter yesterday that Ryan Mathews is going as a very cheap RB option in this year’s drafts.  So cheap that there’s value and to not overlook it.  Though on the one hand I get what he’s saying, I don’t like Ryan Mathews.  Getting him cheap in this year’s draft would not make me happy and I wouldn’t relish in the value of where I picked him up.  That has a domino effect on your entire approach in how you’d play him.  He has one bad week and you say to yourself ‘I knew I shouldn’t have drafted him’ and you put him on the trading block.  Heck, he might be on the trading block before week 1.  Is there value in that?  I’d say not.  The key thing here is you have to draft guys you believe in, their ADP is just a placeholder to tell you how the world values them not how you should.  You have to make a choice of who you want to go to Prom with and not worry about what everyone else will think.  It’s your team and if you don’t believe in it, it’s going to be a long season.  Yes, this was a preachy article which was maybe 10% analysis and 90% analogy but it fits.  Draft the guys you want on your team not the ones that everyone tells you are a value.  Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to go watch Pretty In Pink.

  1. FrankGrimes says:
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    yea it’s July but what does this foster calf injury mean? Is the prom over or is there one last dance left with him?

  2. Big Magoo says:
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    I’d consider drafting Mathews, McFadden, Murray, or Vick more like taking your sister to the prom – it doesn’t make you look good and you probably won’t have a great time either.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Ha! And there’s definitely no afterwards play time…we hope!

  3. Draft Strategy - keeper and #1 pick says:
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    10 Team league. Not a PPR league.
    Start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RBorWR, DST, K
    So I have the #1 pick in the draft for 2013 and I have a 7th round keeper in CJ Spiller.

    I’m thinking of going with APeterson with my first pick giving me a great duo of AP & CJ…but after that with my 3rd and 4th picks do go Brees and Graham? Go to another RB?
    What are you thoughts?
    Thanks for you input.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      3rd and 4th pick? You have 3 picks in the first round? Sorry, I’m confused. If you mean 3rd and 4th round picks, I’d be surprised you land Graham that late.

  4. Mike says:
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    I was asked to a senior prom a year after I graduated. How does that play in your analogy?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Did you get invited by CJ Spiller or Rashard Mendenhall?

  5. Carter Munsell says:
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    When do fantasy football leagues come back up again?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Next week! We tried to plan for this week but it didn’t work out.

      • Carter Munsell says:
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        @Sky:

        awesome! Cant wait! I renewed me league, and there is just me and one other guy, could you post my league onto this website this year. It as a razzball last year.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          We’ve done some mods to league set up. I’ll send your email to JB, I have him organizing it this year. He’ll sling your link up for ya!

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Ok, it’s 12 team, PPR this year with a T/W/R flex position. All the fuller details will come out next week. Good luck!

          • Carter Munsell says:
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            @Sky:
            k, sounds good!

  6. Adam says:
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    Standard league….40 th pick…take Gronk or victor Cruz???
    Tough call

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Gronk

  7. Adam says:
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    Danario Alexander or tavon Austin in late 6th rd???
    Standard

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Alexander

  8. Heraldo says:
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    Just wanted to stop by to say that “the Prom” analogy is perfect.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Ha thanks!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Those were made in May. Take a look at the rankings from June. I talk about most of the starting QBs there.

  9. Brian says:
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    Sky – you helped me crush it last year! This year I have McCoy and Spiller as my keepers and also landed 2 second round picks. With that being said, how should I approach round 1 and 2? Grab the best RB in R1 and WR-WR in R2? Or Grab best WR in R1 followed by RB-WR in round two?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Awesome! It really depends who’s available to you. I assume you have a flex to play another RB? I’d prefer RB-WR unless the value’s not there.

  10. Mike says:
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    I would take the WR in round one. You already have two top 10 running backs

  11. Mike says:
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    Ball and Bell their ADP is so different on different sights. Ball was very good in college and going to Denver which was in the top 10 last year running the ball he could be a 2nd round pick only if he starts. Bell is a very physical back and going to Pittsburgh he looks to be the No 1 back he should be a dominate back. Bell could go in the 3rd round so you don’t want to pick them up because they are rookies. I have the 10th pick in a 12 team league. I am drafting RB, WR, RB. RB, WR. I don’t like the running backs that our available in the 2nd round and I am not high on David Wilson or Bush, Ivory or Johnson

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Cool. I like all the backs you mentioned to various degrees. Don’t have a problem drafting Ivory/Bush/Johnson.

  12. Mike says:
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    Johnson I expect will be gone and Bush I hate his offensive line. Ivory I hope to get in the 4th round. Wilson looked good the last 4 games last year but he fumbles to much and one bad game Brown could be starting. So I hope Bell or Ball look great

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Bush could catch 60+ passes this year. Think you need to realize his role doesn’t need a great offensive line for him to be productive. Ivory’s a sleeper this year, I like him a lot. I’m not all in on Wilson either. I lean Bell if asked between the two. I trust his role in Pittsburgh more then I do Montee’s in Denver.

  13. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Wow, i don’t even know where to start with this one, so I will number these because if I had to read that shit show then you will have to read mine.

    1) This flaw has more to do with personality types than drafting either the girl you want or the girl who’s there. You know those guys, and I know you do, that no matter who they draft they support 100%, “Hey I got Arian with the second pick, I really think he bounces back to what he was 2010″…..”Uh, based on what”…..”I just feel like he’s due”….”OK there buddy” I call this the blindly optomistic because the player is on their roster type. “I don’t understand why Matt Cassell didn’t return to his Patriots form” You get the point. His arrogance and idiocy makes him the league Douchetard.

    2) Porn would have made a better title than Prom for many reasons but the best is we ARE TALKING TO FANTASY SPORTS PLAYERS! I know after reading this you have some players walk away from their computers glassy eyed because now they are reliving their high school prom rejections, curled up in the fetal position in their mom’s basement, wishing they would of “FIT” in. Damnnit Sky we are dealing with Hi IQ, Low EQ people. But hey, enough about me. Porn is better because we can all relate because we have all watched it, and if we haven’t then we are liars because we all have. The draft is a place where we get to choose our own adventure just like an afternoon on Porn Hub, we can go look at some Latina Porn to start, go over to Milf, bring in some kinky group stuff and finish with big asses. Now you might say, we don’t always get what we want on draft day, same as a trip down the virtual porn aisle, we know what were looking for but sometimes don’t quite get it. “I want to see a chick that looks like my co-worker that I stare at everyday from my cubicle, but what I get is something that looks like the stripper who smells like a three day old catch that got left in the car during a heat wave” or we find her literally and lose every ounce of testosterone from beating ourselves raw.

    3) I never went to prom so I just don’t understand this analogy at all, our any dance for that matter. I never understood this whole going to fancy dances thing. People tell me I missed out on something, but that would require me liking the people I grew up with. I was also influenced by my brother, who only went to one Homecoming dance out of pressure and he did well with the ladies and him and his crew were quite popular in school, so there you go.

    4) Damnnit Sky, now I am wondering what I missed out on…..

    5) There is no 5, I’m just picking up the pieces of my youth and examining them like I’m on mushrooms…..can’t stop going into fetal position

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Jack Full of in depth prom analysis!

      1) With any like that, you have to evaluate and have a reason why. I can’t help people who pick their favorite teams by the color of the jersey any more then I can people who just ‘feel it in their gut’. Analysis has to be assumed on my part. Without it, I have to explain declining YPC every post or elusiveness. Don’t have time for everyone in the world!

      2) Jack Full of Pornhub! I try to keep things PG-13 if I can help it. I also try to make my readers feel bad about their past so that I can lift their spirits back up. A form of Stockholm Syndrome if you will.

      3) I went with my future wife because her BF at the time couldn’t make it. If she didn’t go with me, I wouldn’t have gone.

      4) Trust me when I say, ya missed nothin!

      5) People get too nostalgic about their youth. They forget all the emotional hell they went through even when they were having fun. I’d never want to be 18 again. Only thing I miss about those times is that all my friends were in the same town and if I could have that again, I’d be one of the happiest people alive. But I’d like to be of drinking age for it, thank you very much.

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Sky: 1) I hate those guys, I had to bring it up. i believe in the gut as a complement to knowledge. But what I was also trying to address was those that defend everything no matter what til the death, because if it’s theirs then it’s right

        2) Brilliant, mission accomplished, I was in tears and now I’m pulling out of it because you have given me a little piece of emotional candy

        3) her BF was a dude?

        4) But did I, no i didn’t, seemed like a lot of money I would of rather spent on my car

        5) Through therapy, literally, I learned I was a fucking mess, but for lots of reasons, and not always the usual stuff. In hind sight I would rather be kinda crazy with a better sense of reality than sane and lost in la la land. “Happy” is for the normal people

        6) why the f**k am I numbering my responses

        7)And why do I have this feeling of wanting to drive to Eugene and catch a Ducks game with you?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          1) Me too. Irrational like of someone is pointless. It’s no better to me then you saying ‘just because’. You’re not my dad, I don’t have to put up wit dat chit.

          2) It tastes like starbursts!

          3) I used that as short for Boyfriend. Wasn’t referring to BFF

          4) Yeah, wouldn’t have gone without it being the right person. Clearly she was.

          5) Definition of happy has no static place in the world. Anyone who says different has very little experience with how life goes.

          6) I don’t know, wanna switching to bullet points?

          7) Because it would be awesome?

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Sky: Ooh emotional Starburts, are they like the pink or the orange ones.

            Wow, so you jacked her from the old BF and now you’re eating her for breakfast the rest of your life. It’s like a campy 90’s high school movie.

            I get some uncomfortable responses to that statement, they are like, “I’m happy so does that make me normal…..I thought I speciall and unique”

            Problem is I hate the Ducks, and wouldn’t come up for the UCLA game, don’t go into the lions den if you know an ass kicking is likely coming, to me, not my team. I really hate ASU and USC and could root against them and not for the Ducks and feel OK about it

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Whatever vape flavor they come in.

              Ha, no, I liked her she didn’t like me that way. We weren’t together until a couple years later in college.

              Good ole Pac-12 rivalry. Ruining friendships since forever. Our fans are fanatics. Seriously, Eugene has some of the most involved fans you’d ever meet. They even go crazy for the Eugene Emeralds around here. I don’t blame you for not wanting to come up for that.

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Sky: but I would like to experience a game in that unique little stadium. No bullshit, one day I want to come see a game, i was pissed that when i was there i couldn’t get a ticket for the civil war game. I could see the conversation with the wife,” uh Sky, who is this guy?….. oh this is Jack, he’s a frequent commentor that drove all the way to Eugene from LA to watch a football game with me…..You need to stop taking every stray into this house, make sure he doesn’t steal anything!”

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Haha, I’m sure that’ll be her response. I’m definitely down if you can get up this way. I’ll do my best to be the hostess with the mostess. Would be a good time. I actually haven’t caught a game in 2 years so that would be a nice thing.

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: it’s the 10-11 hour drive that I hate, but damn, I do need to get out of dodge. Ooh, we can go wine tasting in the willamette valley and play video games, it will be so bromantic

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Haha, my wife would appreciate the wine. The video games, however…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: note to self: bring wife wine…..lots of wine

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: who gets to be the host?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      It matters not, I just wanna play!

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: I just told baby mama I got invited to go to Oregon, she said, “when do you leave?”

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Haha, nice!

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Sky: I’ll brine the turkey and bring it with me….I can grab my daughters easy bake oven

                    she can’t wait for me to go away

  14. Sean Mac says:
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    I’m thinking of holding onto Spiller or Brees over Foster in a Keeper league. I know there’s value at QB in the later rounds but our league values QB’s a lot. 1 point for every 25 pass yards, and 6 points for a TD. RB is 1 point for 10 rushing yards and 6 points for a TD. To make it simple Bree’s had 439 points compared to Fosters 278, and Spillers 220 . Its also a PPR. Your thoughts? Thanks.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      The question isn’t how many points Brees scored, the question is how easily can you replicate the 278/220 from Spiller in the draft by comparison. There’ll be plenty of QBs that outscore top end RBs, it’s not what you base your draft around. Unless every single top 12 QB is being kept, I’d go Foster/Spiller there.

  15. Mike says:
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    I have the 5 pick. Trent Richardson?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      That’s a solid choice. I’d suggest you take a look at my rankings if you want to have further analysis.

    • Mike says:
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      @Mike: I have the 10th pick and yes T. Richardson

  16. Josh says:
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    Sky, thanks for writing this man. This is the point of fantasy sports. Grey ranked Goldschmidt in the second round for baseball, no other expert had him within 30 spots of that. I reached for him in my draft in the 3rd and my friends were pissed they had wasted their picks on guys they didn’t want, while they planned on taking Goldy where he was ranked by ESPN. Take the guys you want, where you want. Its better to try to manage your team with your own mistakes rather than some fantasy expert’s mistake that you sort of expected.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Haha, thanks! Goldy is a great example. I have Chris Ivory ranked much higher then others have him. Now granted, I aim to take advantage of the discount somewhat but still, highlighting those guys and aiming for them to land on your team is a huge part of the process of enjoying this game.

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Josh: Jerry Jones did this in real football and took Quincy Carter in the second round.

      It generally is good to do in fantasy sports though. In 2005, I took Larry Johnson 66th overall. He was still a backup at the time. This was in a standard 12-team league and I had already drafted my starting RBs. I felt he was going to take over the #1 spot by the time the fantasy playoffs would start. Everyone in the league laughed at me for taking Johnson four or five rounds too early.

  17. One Man Crusade says:
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    With the loss of TE depth this year I am considering moving Rodgers for Gronkowski in a 10 team keep 6 league, which would give me Spiller, McCoy, Calvin Johnson, Cobb, Gronkowski, and Greg Jennings……I would be rolling the dice with someone like Luck, Kaep or Wilson at QB….but I think the drop of at TE is too steep now.

    My initial strategy as we discussed previously was to take a steady guy like Olsen and pair with high upside guy like Rudolph, but now Olsen is drafter as mid number one starter…..it is madness.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Eh, I don’t think losing one guy changes the dynamic of an entire draft. TE isn’t something you should be worrying about that much. That said, the offer is reasonable but not one I would do with Gronk’s injury history and the difference in longevity between those two positions.

      • One Man Crusade says:
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        @Sky: What are your thoughts on Rodgers for AJ Green

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          It’s fair. Depends on needs and what other QBs are available in the draft

  18. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    I never understood why people say “I went to prom” instead of “I went to the prom”.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, I went to store early today and then went to home. I don’t know what’s going on.

  19. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Maybe it is just me, but I thought the word prom was a noun.

    Maybe it is not.

    Hey man, I just saw a naked chick on TV. I am going to get some lotion and prom myself in the bathroom.

    I just prommed that sandwich.

    I went to prom some ham and accidentally sliced my hand off.

    That guy just prommed me.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I prommed myself once. Couldn’t walk right for 3 days.

  20. the imp says:
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    Hi Sky,
    As a newer player, I love draft strategy talk. Thanks.

    How early are you willing to draft a bench RB (in a non-flex situation) before filling starting QB, TE, or WR slots? Last year, Martin fell to Rnd 5 and since I had starting RBs already I ended up passing on him for an (oft-injured….grrr) WR2. Luck dictates such value won’t drop again, but…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I like to leave the first 5 or 6 rounds with 3 RBs depending on value even without a flex. WR has a lot more value late by comparison so is rather wait on my WR3 then my RB3.

  21. Wilsoooooooooon! says:
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    How do you feel about R.Wilson post Harvin injury? He ran a lot in the 2nd half last year and I feel if he keeps that up the loss of Harvin won’t sting too much.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I still have him ranked the same and see no reason for change either way. Bare in mind we have zero knowledge of what’s going to happen to Harvin until Tuesday anyways. It’s not a Dennis Pitta situation just yet.

  22. appleTree says:
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    i feel like garçon isn’t getting the respect he deserves..

    i also am wondering why everyone is over L Mccoy

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I think Garçon is priced right, honestly. I’d say Nicks is overrated and that Danario is the one getting overlooked.

      What do you mean by over him, RE: McCoy?

      • appleTree says:
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        @Sky: i think where garçon is going in drafts is a steal! i think mccoy should still be a top 5 back consideration. people aren’t too high on him as i can see. i think he’ll be a steal as well in the later 1st rd. i play in a 14 man league, so my thoughts may be a lil different from 10 and 12 man leagues

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I don’t mind Garcon but if you’re looking for a steal, you should be looking at Danario Alexander. I see them as very similar, only you are getting DX much cheaper.

          I have nothing against McCoy, I have him in my top 20 and as a top 12 back overall. There’s a lot of talent and good setups for this year’s running backs. Have to go with your convictions in certain areas.

  23. Sniff Test says:
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    Where do you draw the line with this strategy? I have inherited a team and must choose a keeper between Cam Newton and Jamaal Charles. I don’t really like Charles but the rankings tell me I should like him more than I like Cam Newton.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I’m assuming there are no round values associated with your keepers or any other valuation criteria so for that reason, I have no problem with you keeping Cam. QBs last longer in general, doesn’t hurt to have them as your keepers. The key thing I’m trying to make with this analogy is not to get too wrapped up in what others think/say should be on your team. If you don’t think Charles is a top 5 back this year, you’re gonna be less likely to keep the faith with him all year if he struggles.

      • Sniff Test says:
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        @Sky: no round values but you can only keep the player for one year then next season have to keep someone else. The chiefs have been so blah…maybe Reid and Smith change that…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Interesting, well there goes my theory. I’d actually go Charles if that’s the case. Target Cam in the draft.

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