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Well it’s been awhile and I would personally like to thank Sky for allowing me to return after a much needed break.  Before you ask, I was not banished from the island of Razzball. Like a bad episode of Survivor, I was on vacation and a much needed vacation at that. Speaking of Survivor, I just joined an interesting fantasy football league that is a draft only, best ball format, but the team with the lowest points each week gets removed until there is only one left. I’ve seen lots of interesting formats but that one is above and beyond cool, looking forward to it although I will probably be out week 1, being an outcast sucks….but well enough of that, I’m writing today to bring you a perspective of a very different quarterback then that of rising star Tannehill whom I spoke of in my last post which you can find here with my Ryan Tannehill Dynasty diatribe. That player we are talking about somewhat in the hot seat is quarterback Josh Freeman of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Freeman in the hot seat?!  Let’s trudge on into the ether that is the second paragraph to find out…

Josh is a quarterback who was 13th overall in points in standard scoring leagues at his position in 2012…how is he a risky proposition you ask? I completely understand that reaction and although Freeman has shown flashes of greatness he has been incredibly inconsistent, most of the time when it counts the most.  Mainly towards the end of the season…yes your fantasy football playoffs and championships! In the last 5 weeks of the the 2011 season, Freeman was only able muster 215 yards 1 touchdown and 1.4 interceptions per game and in 2012 the same thing: 268 yards 1 touchdown and 1.7 interceptions per game in his last 5 games. Not exactly what you want from your fantasy quarterback and more importantly not what a team wants for their team to be competitive in a very strong NFC South division. Freeman will be entering his 5th NFL season this year and will be turning 26 in January. The 2013 season is an important one for Freeman who will be playing out the last year of his current NFL contract, so in some aspects it’s a make or break. This could be great for fantasy football short term and he might be a decent option late in re-draft as a 2nd quarterback but what is more concerning for me is if he drops off at key moments as he has in the past two years.  If so, he could be testing the free agent market sooner rather than later. Tampa Bay under head coach Greg Schiano has built a very impressive offense to include former Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson, young standout wide receiver Mike Williams, rookie superstar running back Doug Martin and have now acquired former Green Bay Packer tight end Tom Crabtree in free agency. This is an explosive offense in a conference where lots of points are scored so I would be interested to see what they would be capable of with a better option than Freeman at quarterback.

In the year’s NFL Draft, the Buccaneers made an interesting and telling selection with their 3rd round pick. With lots of other talent on the board they decided to go with North Carolina State’s Mike Glennon who – at 6’ 7” 225 – towers over all other rookie quarterbacks. He has a huge arm and is surprisingly athletic for his build. Of all the prospects in this quarterback class, Glennon probably has the most intangibles physically as a passer but is considered a developmental talent that struggles under pressure and is easily flustered in the pocket. Glennon isn’t a quarterback who is going to come in and start immediately but he does have huge upside to possibly become the next down field passing threat in the NFC South, joining Drew Brees and Matt Ryan for weekly shoot-outs. Of course this is all speculation and Freeman could keep his job, cementing Glennon on the bench for the next few years. But if you want a late round guy in rookie and start up dynasty drafts the rookie quarterback from the Bucs, Glennon is your guy especially if you are a Josh Freeman owner in deeper leagues.

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  1. mcBlunty says:
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    long term keeper league, i can 4 guys, and trades before the drraft are allowed, i finished last year with both andrew luck and colin kapernick, who do i keep and who do i trade and whats a reasonable return, 1st round pick, its a high scoring league where completions alone get you .75 points, but rushin attempts also get you 0.40 points (its a crazy scoring system, i know, qbs routinley put up 40 to 50 poits a week)

    • Murph says:
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      @mcBlunty: sorry posted the responses wrong, see comments below

  2. Murph says:
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    Very interesting scoring system, I would be targeting Luck and looking to trade Kaepernick in this situation. Luck completed 21 passes and 4 rushes per game as compared to Karpernick’s 16 passes completed and 5 rushes per game. With the Crabtree injury I think he will be forced to run more and those open field hits will take a toll making him a high risk. Kaepernick is extremely overrated in my opinion at as the 8th QB drafted on average in mocks.
    As far as trade value I would look to get a low end RB2/WR2 or if targeting a pick if its a 12 team league and everyone keeps 4 that puts the 1st round in the 5th which is 1 round earlier than his ADP. I would put a 1st round price tag on him but would be ok settling for a 2nd.

    • @Murph: I’m not sure if I would say overrated , Colin lead his team to the Super Bowl last year, he has been progressing , granted he does run quite a bit and that is prime target for injury. I think San Fran will have just as good a season as last yr. A lot due to acquiring Anton . I like this QB. He’s got some goods

      • Murph says:
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        @Karen Hartman: I agree I think Kaepernick is perfect for the 49ers and will be successful but I do think he is being overvalued in terms of fantasy value. 16 completions a game( with Crabtree last year) limits his ceiling and there are much better options I would prefer later in drafts.
        Stafford/Romo/Luck/Wilson are all being drafted after him

  3. Psychedelic says:
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    Hey Murph, in a 16 Team dynasty league, is Tannehill a serviceable option at QB1? pretty much all the other decent options have been selected already, and I figure I might as well just wait on the QB and get advantages in the other positions. Its a 16 team half-PPR and I got stuck with the 16th pick in the draft.. if I draft a QB before Tannehill my other positions will be below average. Thoughts on this? This is my first year doing dynasty in football so I’m trying to balance future upside with now production if that makes sense.

    • Murph says:
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      @Psychedelic: I think that’s fair for a 16 teamer he definitely had top 16 upside and he will only improve in my opinion. I just drafted Tannehill as my QB1 in my last dynasty startup so I fully endorse this, but look to adding an older player that may be disregarded and that falls to the late round as insurance such as Palmer/Vick/Schaub. I think you said it perfectly dynasty has the challenge of balancing age and immediate contributors, that’s what makes it so much more fun than redraft

      • Psychedelic says:
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        @Murph: ok awesome I ended up getting him and ill look at an older vet for insurance. Thanks abunch. And ya I’ve switched to dynasty formats in baseball also it’s just way more fun and really keeps people interested since you can always retool for next season if you completely fail at first.

        I have Forte and McFadden as my RB1/2 so I’m looking for high upside younger guys for my next RB selections. I’m targeting Jonathan Franklin but not sure if he’ll be around for my next pick, Latavius Murray has had good things said about him so far and he’s pretty much essential due to McFaddens injury history. Are there any other younger guys you like for this year or for future roles? I really like Zac Stacy I think he can be real solid in Fischers offense.

        • Murph says:
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          @Psychedelic: As a McFadden owner Murray would be a good selection, from what I’ve read the coaching staff loves him. I like a Stacy alot but it’s a really a tough situation to figure out as he us competing with two other talented backs. If Franklin falls I think you take him as I have zero confidence in Lacy moving forward. Other interesting targets, Christine Michael, Joseph Randle, Mike Gilislee, and Andre Ellington

  4. Todd says:
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    Will there be a rookie dynasty rankings?

    • Murph says:
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      @Todd: They are included in the overall rankings at Fantasy Pros but if that’s something you need, I can look at getting that posted shortly. (Seperate rookie rankings)

      Any players you have specific questions about?

      • Todd says:
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        @Murph: just rookie rb dynasty rankings.

        • Murph says:
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          @Todd:

          My Top 20 for dynasty, let me know if you have any questions

          1. Bernard
          2. Bell
          3. Ball
          4. Michael
          5. Franklin
          6. Stacy
          7. Lacy
          8. Latavius Murray
          9. Lattimore
          10. Randle
          11. Ellington
          12. Gillislee
          13. Ellington
          14. Knile Davis
          15. Taylor
          16. Barner
          17. K. Williams
          18. Ray Graham
          19. Jamison
          20. Denard Robinson

          • Moose Jockey says:
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            @Murph: Why Bernard over Bell and Ball?

            • Murph says:
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              @Moose Jockey: My rankings are for PPR formats and Bernard is by far the best receiving back in this draft class. My assumption is that the Bengals drafted Bernard to replace BGE to give the offense a more versatile running attack. He might not make the most impact in ’13 but long term he is the one you want to own, at least in my opinion. Ball/Bell are both great options but personally I value Bernard higher.

  5. Kevin says:
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    Just got a dynasty league trade offer, was wondering if you had any thoughts on it– it’s .5 PPR.

    I receive DeMarco Murray, Justin Blackmon, and Mike Goodson and send Demaryius Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, and Andre Ellington.

    DeMarco Murray is tempting for me, but I wanted a second pair of eyes.

    My notable RB’s: LeSean McCoy, Le’Veon Bell, Rashard Mendenhall
    My notable WR’s: Demaryius Thomas, Steve Smith, Tavon Austin, T.Y. Hilton, Greg Little

    Thank you!

  6. Murph says:
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    As much as I feel Demaryius’s value is directly effected by Peyton Manning and questions as to how much longer he can play at an elite level, I think this trade really hurts you. The Cowboys really prefer throwing the ball rather than running it and although Blackmon has shown flashes of greatness he is still dealing with Gabbert/Henne at QB. Murray’s lingering ankle problems and Blackmon’s in ability to stay out of trouble makes this and easy choice. Mendenhall, unbelievably just turned 26 last month and should be very effective in a much improved Cardinals offense. It is only a bonus you have Ellington who I feel is the 2nd best back on the roster. Goodson is a throw away as the Jets back to own behind Ivory is Bilal Powell.

    • Kevin says:
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      @Murph:

      Cool, thanks for the advice. I still like Murray, but I think you’re right that I have a more than suitable RB-pair in Mendenhall and Ellington, and that I wouldn’t be getting great value for Demaryius right now.

      Thanks!

      • Murph says:
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        @Kevin: Exactly, Murray is a buy low and DT is a sell high, I don’t hate the trade just think you could get more out of it. Good luck and thanks for reading

  7. Moose Jockey says:
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    Keeper question for you guys.

    How would you value order the following four guys in a 10yds/pt & 6pts/td keeper league?: David Wilson, Lamar Miller, Montee Ball, Le’Veon Bell.

    • Murph says:
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      @Moose Jockey:

      Assuming this is PPR: Miller/Wilson/Bell/Ball

Comments are closed.