What more is there to say about week 3 in the NFL that hasn’t already been said? I haven’t seen anything this crazy since my golf swing. Don’t believe for a second that when the “professional” referees come back all will be copacetic on the field. The NFL will still be crazy, entertaining, full of bloopers, and as always, the best league to watch, compete at, and bet on. That’s how we do it as Homosapiens.
Looking back at the last two weeks, I want to touch on a couple of points pertaining to the strategy of making picks in a pool. Entering week 4, over 80% of all poolies have been eliminated from competition; thanks to weeks 2 and 3 where the top choices selected lost their seemingly easy game. If you are left standing going into week 4 then you did it by using a contrarian approach. You avoided New England in week 2 by selecting Cincinnati or New York, and you avoided San Francisco and New Orleans in week 3 by selecting Chicago or Dallas. To be clear, you are not picking against these top teams to lose, but trying to maximize your chance at winning your pool by yielding better odds in the end.
Is it better to follow Baltimore with 100 other people in week 4 or go with another team that maybe only 10 people have chosen? Even if Baltimore wins you still need to fight it out with at least 100 people to try and become victorious. This is the NFL where the good teams still lose and the bad teams still win. Usually these upsets happen over the course of an NFL season but this year it has been compacted into a crazy 2 weeks.
With Baltimore already winning on Thursday night you are forced to find the contrariety in you. Home teams are 31-17 (8-8 last week) and in division games, favourites are 5-6-1 (1-1 last week). Nine division games in week 4, so it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Teams Already Used – Houston, New England, Chicago
Green Bay Packers, My Week 4 Pick –What in the world happened last Monday Night?! It was like watching Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas, remixed with The Italian Job, starring Keanu Reeves from The Replacements. Just like Earl Hickey, I also believe in Karma and New Orleans is in for a world of hurt Sunday. What better opponent for the Packers to get their rust and anger off on than by playing the restless Saints. Just like the hottest girl on the escort list, the Packers are going to get all the calls Sunday. Did I mention the Saints have an atrocious defense? Yes, yes I have. You know what you can’t simultaneously catch? A Cheesehead. I don’t even know what that means. Green bay is the choice because they are back home, against a non division team, primed to crack some black and gold.
Atlanta Falcons –Matty Ice at home is more clutch than a falcon’s claw. I don’t know what is in the water at the Georgia Dome but it possesses a powerful effect. If you have the chance to acquire any Falcons player on your fantasy squad, I suggest you make it happen as soon as you can. I am going to predict that they will be the last undefeated team in 2012. Cam Newton may be Superman, but the super power he is missing is the ability to exercise an exorcism.
Houston Texans – I have already used the Texans so I can’t foster a pick with them. But if you haven’t used them yet then this spot is a good one. Can we please stop calling Chris Johnson CJ2K? Or maybe we can call him CJ2K? Chris Johnson, the 2 game Killer; he is killing real football and fantasy football. The Texans are real good so don’t be worried about an oil spill if you indeed take them this week.
Arizona Cardinals, Potential Suicide – After a couple of solid wins the Cards are 3-0 in the surprisingly uber-competitive NFC West. They beat the Seahawks, Patriots, and Eagles, who on paper, are all playoff contending teams. But every team has those weeks where they don’t put it all together. It’s like playing golf, where you are cruising along then all of a sudden you have that bad hole where you hit every tree and every hazard going. It’s science. Miami might bring enough water and palm trees for the Cards to get stuck in.