Fantasy Football Two Minute Drill, Week 16

Welcome to the final installment of the Two Minute Drill, 2011. Thanks everyone for your support, and I look forward to providing you with more fake football knowledge in the future.

Looking for early results on stats? Check out my pre-season Rookie and Third-Season Player Production articles. Without analyzing the data, I’m sure there are no surprises, as always.

Fantasy Football stats, news, and opinions heading into NFL Week 16.

Check out my Individual Defensive Player ( DL, LB, DB ) rankings alongside other experts at FantasyPros.com

“Points Allowed” provided by MyFantasyLeague.com

Points Allowed per Week Trending Tool

Houston at Indianapolis

Dan Orlovsky vs T.J. Yates. Get pumped!
Forty seconds left in game, and the clock is stopped due to a defensive penalty. The Texans players are absolutely gassed, and Gary Kubiak refuses to call timeout. Bad coaching. Ah, he called one with 35 second left with the clock stopped. Made up for it.
The Texans are in trouble.

Oakland at Kansas City

Turnovers are killing QB Carson Palmer’s fantasy appeal.
RB Michael Bush will be 28-years old in the summer. If the Raiders slap the franchise tag on him, he has zero leverage. Oh, keep starting him.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Chiefs give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. What a wacky year for Darrius Heyward-Bey. It’s best he’s on your bench this week. Ignore everyone else.
LB Rolando McClain is as hot as they come. He’s putting his disappointing fantasy rookie season far, far behind him. Say, what ever happened to LB Kirk Morrison?
DB Tyvon Branch’s first 11 games produced zero clunkers, but his last three have been sub-par.
Peter King on Mad Dog Chris Russo’s show: How about the Week 17 flex game being QB Kyle Orton returning to Denver to attempt to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs. I love it!
Past 4 weeks, Points Allowed: Raiders have moved from 22nd to 8th in fantasy points given up to wide receivers. Stock up Dwayne Bowe. Start Steve Breaston.
LB Tambi Hali has five consecutive fantasy worthy games.
The Chiefs’ secondary has played well in real life, but their fantasy stock has dried up.

Miami at New England

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Matt Moore is a good start.
RB Reggie Bush had 203 Rushing Yards last week and 406 Rushing Yards over his past three games (all are 100+ yard games). Read it again.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the most fantasy points to wide receivers (and it’s way ahead of number two). Stock up Brandon Marshall. Davone Bess and Brian Hartline are too junky to use.
TE Anthony Fasano has been fantasy useful in his past three games.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the third fewest fantasy points to defensive ends. Take note OLB Cameron Wake owners.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Patriots give up the third most fantasy points to safeties. Just in time to spark a huge game for Yeremiah Bell.
The Lions mocked Tim Tebow by “Tebowing”. QB Tom Brady mocked him by going out his way to get rushing touchdowns last week. The first is blatant and immature. The latter is easily deny-able. You’re not fooling me Brady.
I heard WR Chad Ochocinco scored a TD, or was it just a dream?
Past 3 weeks, Points Allowed: Dolphins have moved from 10th to 20th in fantasy points given up to tight ends. Stock down Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
Barring a miracle, LB Rob Ninko(poop)vich will end the season with more fantasy points than LB Jerod Mayo.
Does anyone remember the last time DB Patrick Chung played? How about LB Brandon Spikes?
Did you acknowledge Reggie Bush’s fantasy greatness yet? Please give him some respect.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

RB Maurice Jones-Drew is all you need to know on offense in Jacksonville. I hope we have more options in 2012.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Titans give up the second fewest fantasy points to linebackers. Stock down Paul Posluszny and Daryl Smith. Some guy named Russell Allen has played well over the past four weeks, but you have to ignore him considering the match-up.
If RB Chris Johnson is active, you start him unless your team is stacked.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jaguars give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Stock down Nate Washington. Bench everyone else.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jaguars give up the sixth most fantasy points to tight ends. Jared Cook deserves a look if you’re struggling at tight end.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jaguars give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to cornerbacks. Before his injury, Jason McCourty was you IDP MVP and now you want to bench him? Don’t do it.

Arizona at Cincinnati

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bengals give up the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. You’re not starting any Cardinal QB.
Notice how RB Beanie Wells’ game logs look a lot like RB Shonn Greene and WR Vincent Jackson.
I know you’ve probably moved on, but TE Todd Heap is playing again and he’s seeing plenty of targets.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bengals give up the second fewest fantasy points to defensive ends. Stock down Calais Campbell.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bengals give up the sixth fewest fantasy points to linebackers. Stock down Paris Lenon and Daryl Washington.
CB Richard Marshall hasn’t had a bad fantasy game since Week 5.
Last week’s barf-fest wasn’t what you needed from rookie QB Andy Dalton.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Cardinals give up the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers. Start rookie A.J. Green and his separated shoulder. Ignore everyone else.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Cardinals give up the seventh most fantasy points to linebackers. Thomas Howard is playing well. Still, it’ll take serious guts to start him. Stock up Rey Maualuga.

Denver at Buffalo

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bills give up the third most fantasy points to running backs. Start Willis McGahee if he’s active. If he’s out, roll with Lance Ball. And expect tons of rushing yards for QB Tim Tebow.
WR Eric Decker has been invisible over the past three games. Over that span, WR Demaryius Thomas has been on fire.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bills give up the fewest fantasy points to defensive ends. Stock down Elvis Dumervil, and OLB Von Miller to a degree.
Imagine all the fantasy points if LB’s Wesley Woodyard and Joe Mays were one player.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Broncos give up the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Recent history suggests you’ve been eliminated from the fantasy playoffs if you own QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. But if you’ve mad it to Championship Week, think about using him.
RB C.J. Spiller’s fantasy playoff explosion will surely have him overdrafted by someone in 2012. All it takes is one owner.
Keep a roster spot saved for rookie LB Kelvin Sheppard next season.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Steelers give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Playing last week with no quarterback, Steven Jackson still had a productive game. It’s unlikely he can do it again.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Steelers give up the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Bench Brandon Lloyd.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Steelers give up the fourth most fantasy points to defensive ends. Stock up Chris Long. Consider James Hall. However, a quarterback change from Pittsburgh would change everything.
LB Chris Chamberlain is still giving you at least four solos every game. But this is championship week, and you should find a player with bigger boom potential.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Rams give up the fifth most fantasy points to running backs. I expect RB Rashard Mendenhall to get at least 25 carries.
I can’t bench WR’s Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown even if QB Ben Roethlisberger misses the game.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Rams give up the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Bench Heath Miller.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Rams give up the fifth most fantasy points to defensive ends, and the third most fantasy points to linebackers. Whichever way you slice it, OLB’s James Harrison and Lamar Woodley are in for a good day. Start Lawrence Timmons, and consider James Farrior if you are thin at LB.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Rams give up the second fewest fantasy points to safeties. Stock down Troy Polamalu. Bench Ryan Clark due to his lack of big plays.

NY Giants at NY Jets

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jets give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Stock down Eli Manning.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jets give up the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs (despite last week’s explosion from LeSean McCoy). Stock down Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jets give up the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Stock down Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Mario Manningham.
DE Jason Pierre-Paul has 11 Solos and 5 Assists to go along with a Sack last week. When was the last time a DE had those ridiculous tackles numbers in one game? He’s going to be the first DL drafted in 2012.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jets give up the most fantasy points to linebackers. Stock up Michael Boley. Mathias Kiwanuka is a dangerous start, as he’s hasn’t had a big play since Week 9 and his tackle numbers are always nothing special.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Jets give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to safeties. Bench Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Giants give up the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Stock up Mark Sanchez.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Giants give up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. Stock up Plaxico Burress and Santonio Holmes.
Past 4 weeks, Points Allowed: Giants have moved from 27th to 16th in fantasy points given up to linebackers. Stock up David Harris. Calvin Pace is an option.

Minnesota at Washington

So you psyched to get RB Adrian Peteson back, and he gives you 60 yards. He’ll do better this week.
See WR Percy Harvin’s stats last week? Yikes. The Saints even kept him in check with special team yardage.
Last week was officially the fantasy death of TE Visanthe Shiancoe’s career.
DE Jared Allen is going for the single-season sack record, and the coaches sat him. There are also whispers of the Vikings switching to the 3-4 next season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants out.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Redskins give up the second most fantasy points to linebackers. Stock up Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Vikings give up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Another nice match-up for Rex Grossman. Hopefully the Redskins won’t be conservative like last week.
If rookie RB Roy Helu is active, start him.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Vikings give up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers. Stock up Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney.
I haven’t done the math, but the ‘skins linebackers probably have the most LB points in fantasy football. And three of them are youngsters.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

QB Josh Freeman is averaging 234 Passing Yards per game, and has 13 TD’s and 21 turnovers on the season. He’s definitely on the 2011 all-disappointment team.
So is WR Mike Willliams.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Panthers give up the second most fantasy points to running backs. Start LeGarrette Blount.
First round linebackers Von Miller, Ryan Kerrigan, and Aldon Smith have all out-produced third round pick Mason Foster. You should have expected this. But that was the rookie formula, and Foster will be a highly desireable commodity in 2012.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Buccaneers give up the fifth most fantasy points to quarterbacks. More awesomeness for rookie Cam Newton.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Buccaneers give up the most fantasy points to running backs. Stock up Jonathan Stewart. Start DeAngelo Williams.
Steve Smith is on pace for a Top 5 WR finish.
TE Jeremy Shockey has a touchdown in consecutive games. He’s a lot better than some of the junk on the waiver wire.
James Anderson will finish the year as a LB1. You assumed that when you drafted him, yet nobody gives him credit outside the fantasy community.
If you frequent IDP places, you’ve already been told about LB Jordan Senn. We’ll see if he has a job next year. Jon Beason and Anderson are locks.

Cleveland at Baltimore

I’d have my agent send out feelers for back-up jobs if I were QB Colt McCoy.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Ravens give up the third fewest fantasy points to running backs. Bench Peyton Hillis.
The more rookie WR Greg Little is in the highlights, the more likely someone over-drafts him next year.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Ravens give up the fourth most fantasy points to linebackers. D’Qwell Jackson will extend his top dog status. Chris Gocong has 7 Solos in consecutive games.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Browns give up the third fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Bench Joe Flacco.
RB Ray Rice is your hero.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Browns give up the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Losing Anquan Boldin to injury actually helps you. Now you’re forced to bench him. I’d also bench rookie Torrey Smith.
LB Ray Lewis picked up where he left off.

San Diego at Detroit

Past 5 weeks, Points Allowed: Lions have moved from 28th to 10th in fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. Stock up Philip Rivers.
RB Ryan Mathews, past four games: 20 Rushing Attempts per game, 113 Rushing Yards per game, 3 Receptions per game, 15 Receiving Yards per game, 3 TD’s. If he finishes the season with this pace, there’s a chance he could creep into the first round in 2012.
WR Vincent Jackson has flattened out, which is better than those reoccurring nosedives.
In a year with unbelievably good tight end production, Antonio Gates, who missed four games, is a Top 8 TE.
I trust LB Antwan Barnes about as far as I can throw him.
QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson, you owe me $125. I’m in a pool where I pick every game every week (no spread) and your comeback cost me top score in Week 15.
Seven Receptions for 81 Receiving Yards and 1 TD shouldn’t have been WR Nate Burleson’s top fantasy game of the year. He let me down.
Past 3 weeks, Points Allowed: Chargers have moved from 12th to 22nd in fantasy points given up to kickers. Since Week 10, Jason Hanson is the 27th ranked kicker. Find a different guy.
DE Cliff Avril is too streaky for me, but his final season stats will still be excellent.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Chargers give up the fifth most fantasy points to linebackers. Stock up Stephen Tulloch and DeAndre Levy.

Philadelphia at Dallas

Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Cowboys give up the seventh fewest fantasy points to running backs. Stock down LeSean McCoy (imagine what the read-option would look like in Denver if they drafted him over Knowshon Moreno).
Current WR DeSean Jackson owners, how far does he have to fall in the 2012 fantasy draft before you pull the trigger?
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Cowboys give up the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends. Stock up Brent Celek.
Two reasons to be down on DB Kurt Coleman this week: (1) the Cowboys give up vey few points to safeties, and (2) he had one lousy solo tackle in his first meeting with the Cowboys.
What, you’re surpised RB Felix Jones is sore? With practice squader Chauncey Washington and recently signed Sammy Morris manning the backfield, I expect a ton of passes from QB Tony Romo.
WR Dez Bryant has one touchdown in five of his past six games. You have no right to be upset about his lack of catches and yards.
Start WR Laurent Robinson.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Eagles give up the sixth most fantasy points to linebackers. Stock up Demarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, and Sean Lee.

San Francisco at Seattle

RB Frank Gore started the year with three consecutive games under 60 rushing yards, then five consecutive games over 100 rushing yards, and then six consecutive games under 90 rushing yards. So no matter what he does in his final two games, he’ll have more sub-100 yard games then +100 yard games. Oh, he’ll be 29-years old in May.
The 49ers have finally given WR Kyle Williams some significant playing time.
Past 3 weeks, Points Allowed: Seahawks have moved from 3rd to 16th in fantasy points given up to tight ends. Stock down Vernon Davis.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Seahawks give up the sixth most fantasy points to defensive ends. Stock up Justin Smith. This should also translate to my new IDP-favorite, rookie OLB Aldon Smith.
Past 9 weeks, Points Allowed: Seahawks have moved from 4th to 23rd in fantasy points given up to linebackers. The trend includes a five-week stretch in the middle where things leveled out (average = 13), but it’s important to see where it started and where it is now. Stock down NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis/Larry Grant.
DB Dashon Goldson has one interception in six of his past eight games.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: 49ers give up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Marshawn Lynch has scored in 10 consecutive games. Something’s Got to Give. It’s disrespectful to bail on him considering you’ve rode him this far.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: 49ers give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to linebackers. Stock down David Hawthorne. Bench Leroy Hill. Leave K.J. Wright on waivers
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: 49ers give up the fewest fantasy points to cornerbacks. Brandon Browner, past four games: 13 Solos, 10 PD’s, 5 Ints, 1 TD. He’s not this good in real life, and he should be benched this week. Same with Richard Sherman.
There are some nice safety-combos throughout the league, but you could make the argument Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas is the best duo.

Chicago at Green Bay

We’re spared from watching QB Caleb Hanie Sunday night. Thank you.
Expect lots of RB Kahlil Bell.
How is WR Johny Knox not paralyzed?
I want to start DE Israel Idonije so badly this week. However, I can’t justify using a Week 16 waiver wire DE pick-up over guys who have been with me for many weeks.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Packers give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to linebackers. Stock down Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Packers give up the third fewest fantasy points to safeties. Bench Craig Steltz.
Don’t believe QB Aaron Rodgers will be fired up to avenge last week’s disappointing game. He’s kinda the best player in football. He doesn’t need any extra incentive to dominate.
Keep RB James Starks on your bench.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bears give up the third most fantasy points to tight ends. Stock up Jermichael Finley.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bears give up the second most fantasy points to defensive ends. This should translate to OLB Clay Matthews.
If LB Desmond Bishop is active, you must start him.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Bears give up the second fewest fantasy points to cornerbacks. Stock down Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams.
I searched the waiver wire for a LB Patrick Willis 4pm replacement in case he’s inactive again. Check out DB Charlie Peprah. The Bears give up good points to safeties, especially of late, and he’s had at least 6 Solos plus PD’s in three consecutive games.

Atlanta at New Orleans

QB Matt Ryan will be forced to pass in order to catch up. As long as he doesn’t throw picks, he’s in for a good fantasy day.
Finally some fantasy consistency from rookie WR Julio Jones.
Past 4 weeks, Points Allowed: Saints have moved from 14th to 26th in fantasy points given up to defensive ends. Bench John Abraham.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Saints give up the third fewest fantasy points to linebackers. Stock down Curtis Lofton and Sean Weatherspoon.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Saints give up the fourth most fantasy points to safeties. Big ups to Ross Miles from ProFootballFocus. He helped solidfy my starting lineup with this nugget: Week 15 snaps: William Moore had 49/49, Thomas DeCoud 49, and James Sanders 0. I’m rolling with Moore.
QB Drew Brees could break the passing record throwing left-handed.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Falcons give up the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. Stock down Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram (if he’s active). Darren Sproles is recession-proof.
WR Marques Colston’s consistency is outstanding.
LB Jonathan Vilma has just one monster game on the season. Odds are you won’t be losing big points if you bench him.
Season-to-date, Points Allowed: Falcons give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to safeties. Stock down Roman Harper and Malcolm Jenkins.

Vegas, NFL Spreads, Final Record 26-29-3

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