Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math
October 05, 2009
Category: 2009 Fantasy Football
Let’s remind ourselves of the formula:
Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity
Week 5 is on the way! It’s time to make some trades happen people! Again all the players I’m going to talk about here I look at within a “buy low” framework.
Tier I
Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – He’s had two starts in a row where he’s looked like Trent Dilfer which is ironic since the Saints D looked like the 2000 Ravens this past week. He has gone from “untouchable” to a player you might be able to get for the right price. Ideally a 2 for 1 like Cutler + decent skill position player for Brees. A lot of people would do that type of deal even though they shouldn’t.
Andre Johnson 19 (10+9) – Other than the one huge week he has been disappointing. His owner might be impatient with his inconsistency. There’s only one way to find out!
Larry Fitzgerald 19 (10+9) – ESPN is declaring Fitz to be a bust this year relative to his value. This is like Christmas in October for non-owners. I would definitely point this out in your trade offers for him. I have a friend who got him for Ryan Grant. May the looting begin!
Jason Witten 19 (10+9) – Jason Garret needs to grow a set. He keeps listening to the media, trying to be cute, etc. One manifestation of said trickery was leaving Witten at the line to block on goal line passing plays. I think the Cowboys are going to stop trying to get so fancy and feed 82 the ball like they should be. I’m also starting a rumor that he’s trying to change his name to “ochodos.”
Brandon Marshall 18 (10+8) – How ridiculously good was that play on Sunday? Word on the street is Marshall has been a model citizen since returning from his suspension/getting his contract extension. Apparently he’s working hard and toeing the line. Look I know he’s totally insane but so was T.O. in his heyday. He is a top 5 receiver in the NFL in terms of ability, flat out.
Tier II
Rashard Mendenhall (9+8) – There’s no secrets about this player. With Willie Parker dinged up, yet again it, appears Mendenhall may have done enough to put a vice on the starting job in Pittsburgh. Most owners won’t part with him but there will be a few looking to “sell high” on this obvious breakout candidate.
Leon Washington 16 (9+7) – He is getting enough points right now to be a serviceable start in all but the most shallow of leagues. If/when Thomas Jones gets hurt he will see an upgrade in work load, making him a big time contributor.
Ahmad Bradshaw 15 (8+7) Ran the ball very well again on Sunday. Definitely a great investment because you get solid production now with the potential for huge digits down the road.
Jerome Harrison 15 (8+7) – He played extremely well for a second game in a row and the starting job could be his even if Lewis comes back. James Davis is now out for the season.
Beanie Wells 15 (8+7) – He hasn’t delivered near the hype he was getting preseason. Owners are getting impatient that he hasn’t been able to take the job from Tim Hightower. It may not be as expensive as you think to land this great stasher.
Tier III
Mohamed Massoquoi 15 (8+7) – I debated putting him in tier II. Dude got 13 targets on Sunday, caught a ton of balls for a lot of yards. Braylon Edwards continues to play terrible and get no attention in that offense plus he may be getting in some legal trouble. I’m going to own Massoquoi everywhere I can.
Donnie Avery 14 (7+7) – Not a lot of production this past Sunday but their Offense got shut down completely. He’s a number one receiver what else can I say?
Antonio Bryant 14 (7+7) – This guys stock has risen and fallen more than any player in all of Fantasy Football over the past calendar year. He’s been on waivers in a lot of leagues and after a decent game there might be reason to own him.
Ryan Moats 14 (7+7) – A skilled scatback who has been around the league but doesn’t have a lot of miles on him. Steve Slaton has struggled somewhat for Houston. Moats got 15 carries for 56 yards, prompting compliments from Gary Kubiak. This was probably the most under the radar performance by a potential Sleeper this week. He looks like an excellent stash right now.
Mewelde Moore 13 (7+6) – If you have room he’s a great stash in case Willie Parker’s turf toe doesn’t improve. Moore sees a ton of action in the passing game and gets to run some.
Shonn Greene 13 (8+5) – I really think you’re going to start to see him carry the ball a little bit. If Thomas Jones gets hurt Washington will be the man on passing downs and some running plays but they drafted Green to make him the feature runner. A good stash for the 2nd half of the season. These are the guys who win playoff games for you.
You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew
Tags: Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Johnson, Antonio Bryant, Beanie Wells, Brandon Marshall, Donnie Avery, Drew Brees, Jason Witten, Jerome Harrison, Larry Fitzgerald, Leon Washington, Mewelde Moore, Mohamed Massoquoi, Rashard Mendenhall, ryan moats, Shonn Greene
October 5th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Just received this offer: his VJax for my Roddy White. Take it?
October 5th, 2009 at 10:16 pm
I actually traded Marshall for Witten after last week. Kind of regret it now since the TE I dropped was Finley (kind of jumped the gun there.)
Although, my starting lineup is now: Palmer, AP, MBIII, Colston, DJax, Donald Brown/Julius Jones, Witten. (.5 PPR for WR/TE only)
@Christopher: Roddy has started off slowly but I’d be in no rush to trade him.
October 6th, 2009 at 5:09 am
i am about to pull the trigger on a deal where i get roddy white and ryan grant, and i give up ray rice and steve smith (nyg). white’s gotten looks and catches (at least 4 catches each game), he just hasn’t broken anything open yet.
who is the waiver wire D of the week? DEN and SF have been very kind to me the past 2 weeks. i’m leaning WASH but really either WASH or CAR could be/should be a good play. MIA is probably the only other op[tion i’d consider from our wire.
October 6th, 2009 at 5:26 am
Who do you like best for stash value: Beanie Wells, Mike Bell, or Jerious Norwood. I’ve got Bell and Norwood, but Wells is available on the wire.
October 6th, 2009 at 5:51 am
@hacienda:
I like Wells a lot if he can win back that job. Does your league have its playoffs in weeks 15 and 16? Take a look at the Cards’ matchups for those weeks — DET and STL. It doesn’t get tastier than that.
In fact, what do y’all think of this trade I’m thinking about proposing to a buddy? I give up DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy for Steven Jackson and Beanie Wells. It’s certainly possible he wouldn’t accept it, but that seems like a pretty fair offer, no?
October 6th, 2009 at 6:21 am
@ThePoonTycoon: Check if Dallas was dropped in your league after their sackless start to the season. They have KC next week. Otherwise, I still like Denver…they faced some bad offenses early, but they looked legit against Dallas.
@hacienda: Beanie. Bell is no lock to get carries if PT is healthy, and Norwood can’t seem to find time on the field without getting dinged up.
@Josh: Honestly, if I were the Steven Jackson owner, I wouldn’t consider it…if news broke that Westbrook was done for the year, then yes. Worth a shot though, it’s not horrible.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:36 am
2 questions for the field:
Drop Kellen Winslow for Jermichael Finley?
Drop Devin Hester for Mohamed Massequoi?
October 6th, 2009 at 6:37 am
@mgeoffriau: Scratch that on Finley, Green Bay has a bye next week.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:37 am
So, waiver order for RBs should be Mendenhall 1st and Harrison 2nd? (PPR league if that matters)
October 6th, 2009 at 6:39 am
@Josh:
@mgeoffriau:
Thanks! I’ll definitely pick up Beanie. Who would you drop first, Bell or Norwood?
As for the trade, it would be a great deal if you could make it happen.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:45 am
@mgeoffriau: I’d keep Hester at this point, as long as the injury isn’t serious–he’s starting to click with Cutler. And, despite the bye, I think Finley has huge potential, especially if Rodgers continues to get poor pass protection.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:49 am
@hacienda: Unfortunately, no other drop candidates on my roster…so if I’m going to get either Massequoi or Finley, I’d have to drop Hester. (Next drops would be Harrison, Braylon, McFadden, Lynch….not gonna happen)
October 6th, 2009 at 6:51 am
@hacienda: Drop Bell before Norwood…you’ve got NO’s bye week to decide if you need to pick him back up.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:54 am
funny, i was coming here to post a question about the trade and this is the perfect topic!
but check this out: got an offer – I give Mendehall, I get Clinton Portis and Benjamin Watson in return. My TE right now is Shiancoe.
Do I pull the trigger? I don’t know if Mendenhall outperforms Portis for the year.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:58 am
oh yeah, indy D was just dropped this morning, so looks like i’ll put in a waiver on them over wash D.
and dallas D is already gone. and i don’t know that i wanna gamble on den against the pats when there are other solid plays on the wire.
October 6th, 2009 at 7:03 am
@mgeoffriau: I’d be really tempted to drop McFadden at this point. Do you think he’s worth holding on to, even with the injury?
October 6th, 2009 at 7:10 am
@hacienda: I’ve thought about it…but unless the projection (2-4 weeks) changes, I think you have to hold onto him for now unless you’re in a very shallow league.
October 6th, 2009 at 7:49 am
I have Brees on bye this week so I preemptively picked up Garrard before he blew up last Sunday. Just got an offer of Leon Washington & Devery Henderson for Garrard. Henderson is useless but I do like Leon and I need RB depth. I could either ask for Hasselbeck (risk if he doesn’t play) or just grab a WW guy (Collins vs Indy, Sanchez @ Miami, Seneca vs Jax if Hasselbeck doesn’t play, Anderson @ Buf, Delhomme vs Wash).
Thoughts?
October 6th, 2009 at 7:52 am
@Drew: or doc,not ppr,welker ,coffee,owens, bush,need a wr/rb,owens plays cleveland,coffee atlanta and welker denver
October 6th, 2009 at 8:00 am
Is there any chance that Fred Jackson stays as the #1 RB throughout the season? If not, who has the worst outlook for the rest of the season in a PPR: Addai, Jackson, or Marshawn?
October 6th, 2009 at 8:02 am
also add Julius Jones to that worst outlook poll
October 6th, 2009 at 8:15 am
@Matt B: ug,tough calls there,jackson and lynch will soon be splitting carries and if lynch can show some flash he will regain a 65 to 75 percent workload and you never know what addai will do with peyton throwing so goodi like lynch for the long haul addai 2nd
October 6th, 2009 at 9:11 am
Drop Breaston pick up Massoquoi?
Drop Buckhalter pick up J.Harrison?
Both are for Bench depth only. Also have L.Washington, N.Washington, and Sims-Walker for my Bench.
@AL KOHOLIC: I like Welker and Coffee
@timSTi: I’d keep Breaston and get Harrison.
October 6th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Gonzo or Vernon this week? That’s my TE pickle..
Then I have to choose 2 rbs out of these 5 in a no PPR league: J.Harrison, Tashard Choice, S. Jax, Hightower, or Slaton.
WRs are thin: Housh, TO, Burleson….really don’t want to play two SEA wide-outs when they’ve looked shaky..so considering dropping Burleson or Choice to pick up another WR.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:14 am
I’m trying to shop Coffee, who might be nearing his expiration date. What do you think about this trade with a Gore owner:
I get: Flacco and San Francisco DEF
He gets: Coffee and Carson Palmer
I upgrade at QB (I have Rodgers) and DEF (I have Dallas) in exchange for depth at RB. I guess the question is, what’s Coffee’s value?
These are my current RBs:
RB – Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)
BN – Ray Rice (BAL)
RB – Darren McFadden (OAK)
BN – Jerious Norwood (ATL)
BN – Beanie Wells (ARI)
BN – Glen Coffee (SF)
October 6th, 2009 at 10:15 am
Drop Kellen Winslow for Heath Miller? Winslow was targeted just 3 times (catching 2); Miller gets Detroit next.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:18 am
@hacienda: Don’t like it. I’m not sure San Fran is really an upgrade (Dallas is better than they’ve shown, and SF doesn’t get STL every week). Flacco has been great, but it’s also his second year…I wouldn’t count him as an upgrade over Rodgers just yet, and I’m not even convinced he’s that much better than Palmer.
Given that McFadden is out for a few weeks at least, I wouldn’t necessarily be looking to trade your RB depth.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:22 am
Anybody have any advice on my Garrard situation (comment #19)?
Thanks.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:22 am
@hacienda: And Norwood is dinged up (in the head), and Beanie Wells isn’t getting consistent carries.
I’d say hold….right now your starters are MJD and Rice, with Coffee as your only legit backup.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:26 am
@stumanji: I’d be inclined to take Leon Washington now, and figure out the QB situation after. Those waiver options are pretty thin but getting a decent RB would be worth it.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:37 am
@mgeoffriau: Should I try for Ray Rice or am I just being greedy?
October 6th, 2009 at 10:37 am
@mgeoffriau: I think you’re right on the trade. Thanks for talking me down off of that one.
And I think Winslow and Miller are pretty close, so it doesn’t hurt to play the schedule.
@stumanji: I agree with mgeoffriau, you could do okay with one of those waiver picks at QB, and Washington will be useful.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:39 am
@stumanji: Doesn’t hurt to ask, but I doubt you’ll get Rice unless he’s desperate for a QB.
October 6th, 2009 at 10:40 am
@mgeoffriau: He has Rivers on bye and Hasselbeck on his bench, so doesn’t look desperate but I’ll inquire.
October 6th, 2009 at 11:10 am
@Doc: What’s your take on Sidney Rice? I know he is slow, but he has good hands and Favre seems to trust him a little, and I keep forgetting he is only 23. With bye weeks in effect, should I take him or Massoqui?
@Asdrubal Bastardo: Rice, he’s getting a lot of red zone targets.
@stumanji: I agree, Leon is worth it.
October 6th, 2009 at 11:56 am
so after my trade today of steve smith (nyg) and ray rice for roddy white and ryan grant, here is how my team looks:
QB: brees, cassel as a waiver wire/bye week fill-in
RB: sjax, gore, grant, coffee, chester taylor
WR: wayne, white, sims-walker, agonz (been sitting on him and haven’t felt the need for his roster spot yet), henderson
TE: olsen, heap (play the matchup, lean olsen)
K: crosby/whoever i end up dropping him for this week
D: best matchups (SD -> ATL -> DEN -> SF -> IND thus far)
October 6th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
@stumanji: couldn’t you just use him through the bye week and then trade him?
October 6th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
I am considering trading away Slaton, I have the following offer.
I get:
Julius Jones
Calvin Johnson
I give:
Steve Slaton
Earl Bennet
Pull the trigger?
October 6th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
@Vargo: what’s the rest of your RB situation? will julius be your RB3 or a RB2? what do you have at WR? do you have a flex spot?
October 6th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
@Vargo: initially i lean towards making the deal though
October 6th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
@Denys: Well I picked up Garrard in the first place to play him this week with Brees on bye, but the thing is the other guy wouldn’t want him after this week because he has Rivers on bye. I chose to possibly sacrifice this week (I have Brees, PT Cruiser, LT, and Jennings on bye) for the long term…
I ended up trading Garrard/McFadden for Washington/Welker.
Best FA pickup at QB this week? Collins vs Indy, Anderson @ Buf, Sanchez @ Mia, Delhomme vs. Was, Seneca Wallace vs Jax…
Thanks for all the input, guys.
October 6th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
He would be number three, with Ryan Grant and Ronnie Brown ahead of him
October 6th, 2009 at 12:44 pm
@ThePoonTycoon: He would be number three, with Ryan Grant and Ronnie Brown ahead of him
October 6th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
@ThePoonTycoon:
I do have a flex spot, @ WR I have Larry Fitzgerald, Sims- Walker, Percy Harvin, Devin Hester, Earl Bennet, Eddie Royal (soon to be dropped).
October 6th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
@stumanji:
I have the same QB dilemma, needing to pick up a FA guy for this week. Same options as you plus Hill @ Atl and Edwards @ Cle. Right now I’m leaning towards Anderson or Wallace, though of course Wallace might not be the starter.
October 6th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Hey Doc,
Kellen Winslow, Dante Rosario or Marcedes Lewis this week? I’m torn…
October 6th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
@Doc: thank you doc,with a little luck ive started lice in the rcl,im in a family league loaded with a stud team and im 1-3,been beat by a couple of 140 point teams
October 6th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
started nice not lice,i hope not,crabs either
October 6th, 2009 at 1:55 pm
@stumanji: @Josh: i’m rolling the dice on cassel this week as my bye week WW QB. dallas D is statistically one of the worst passing Ds in the league, and at least cassel doesn’t look like he’ll kill you with a bunch of INTs like a d anderson might. someone else scooped hill before i could. anderson is probably my #2 choice of WW QBs for the week though.
of the guys yall listed i’d probably rank them: anderson/hill, wallace, collins, edwards, delhomme, sanchez
@Marvin N.: I like Lewis.
@Vargo: I like the trade.
@stumanji: Right now I think Hass will play, but will have to wait. I like Anderson.
@Josh: I like Anderson.
@AL KOHOLIC: hah
October 6th, 2009 at 2:24 pm
anderson or cassel as my brees bye week fill in?
@ThePoonTycoon: Cassell
October 6th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
In a .5 ppr, trade r. Rice for roddy?
@Sos: Yes, unless it leaves you ridiculously thin at RB
October 6th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
@Doc: At the bottom of my roster I have Ginn Jr., an extra kicker – Bironas ( I have been using Folk), Crayton (No pts for return yardage only return TD in my league). I really need to acquire a WR on waivers as well as a TE since my Shockey has a bye…
At TE I will put a waiver in for Health Miller as he is the best available facing Detroit next week but if I cant I will get Heap then Lewis in that order, right?
For WR I rank my wire like this, Massaquoi, N Washington, S Rice but do I drop Crayton and/or Ginn Jr. for the 1 or 2 options above…not looking for a matchup next week as I have R Williams, Housh & L Fitz starting…
at RB, my Forte has a bye so I could use one in flex or a WR if better for nxt week…options include Harrison, Wells, Moore, Bell (previously owned), M Bush, D Ward, C Taylor, Greene. I own Jones & Mendenhall to start nxt week. Do I pick any of these guys up for long-term value or nxt week, I would need to use one of the WR’s (Ginn or Crayton) to drop or McCoy but I want to stash him…
Thanks DOC!
October 6th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
I get: Leon Washington and Eddie Royal
I give: Johnny Knox
.5ppr
QB (1): Schaub, Palmer
RB (2): LT2, P. Thomas, Benson, DMC, Wells, Betts
WR (3): Megatron, TO, Roy E. Will, Knox
TE (1): Gates
This is a no-brainer, right? I’d cut Betts… 12 teams.
@Drew: Yeah, hope that goes through for you.
@Nick: I like Washington and Harrison. I’d drop Ginn and Bironas for those 2. And I agree with your TE order.
October 6th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
The only thing that concerns me is that I need to drop someone to fill in for Gates’ Bye week…. What do you recommend doing, if this deal goes through?
Also, what are your thoughts about Beanie Wells this week? Sadly, I’m looking at him being my RB2 behind Benson @ Bal…. ouch!
October 6th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Hey Doc I just got offered his Anquan Boldin and Brent Celek for my Knowshon Moreno. I’m weak at WR with Roddy White, Ochocinco and Eddie Royal currently starting for me with Antonio Bryant and Josh Morgan on my bench. My other RBs are Forte, Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, McFadden and Mewelde Moore. I feel like I have to pull this trigger. Agreed?
October 6th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
For my lineup next week pick 3 out of 5, .5 ppr: Hightower, Lynch, Harvin, Harrison, Garcon Btw, I usually play fantasy football just to hold me over til baseball, but this site has sparked my interest this year. Great job!
October 6th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
I should also mention this is a yahoo 12 team non ppr 1 point per 10 yards rush/rec
October 6th, 2009 at 5:48 pm
@B.J.: YES you take that trade NOW
October 6th, 2009 at 6:01 pm
@adrenaline: I went ahead and pulled the trigger and dumped Royal to free up the roster spot for Celek.
October 6th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
@B.J.: yeah,id grab that one
October 6th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
A Message For Those Who Think Their Team Sucks
We’re already a quarterway into the season. But unlike fantasy baseball leagues, where there’s no playoff and stats are cumulative, teams that find themselves at the bottom of the standings still have a shot at the title. Once you’re in the playoffs, you have a fighting chance. So don’t give up and do something senseless like go with an empty slot.
It’s time to rally!
October 6th, 2009 at 7:44 pm
Fantasy question: Forte has a bye this week, so what two RBs do I start? I have a flex spot too but I think I’ll save that for Steve Smith (CAR) @Was (Other three WRs are Welker, Walter, and Cotchery so I’m expecting a decent week from all 4)
Cedric Benson @Bal
Fred Taylor @Den
Ricky Williams vs NYJ
Donald Brown @Ten
Thanks!
@Drew: Do you think the trade will go through so you can use Leon Washington?
I think you’d have to drop DMac.
@B.J.: Nice trade.
@Sos: Lynch, Harrison, Hightower
October 6th, 2009 at 7:47 pm
Gonzo or Vernon this week? That’s my TE pickle..
Then I have to choose 2 rbs out of these 5 in a no PPR league: J.Harrison, Tashard Choice, S. Jax, Hightower, or Slaton.
WRs are thin: Housh, TO, Burleson….really don’t want to play two SEA wide-outs when they’ve looked shaky..so considering dropping Burleson or Choice to pick up another WR.
October 6th, 2009 at 8:23 pm
Sorry doc, but Lynch, harrison, and hightower in what order for this week? .5 ppr
October 6th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
I just got offered Gore for Coffee and D. Brown.
If Gore comes back healthy my backs would be Gore and MJD, and I have Lynch, Jackson, and McCoy to get through bye weeks.
Start 2 rbs with no flex
Should I pull this trade?
October 6th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
So I’m using the waivers this week to pick up my defense for week 6 (since that’s when my defense has it’s bye).
The two best possibilities looked like New England against Tennessee or Jacksonville against St. Louis. I’m leaning on going with New England’s ability to hold Tennessee’s 2009 offense, but playing any average defense against St. Louis also looks pretty good.
Any preference?
@Tankass: Gore is injury prone, I’d tread lightly. Value-wise it is hard for me to argue against that trade though.
@J.P.: St. Louis just looks so bad right now that it’s hard to pass up anyone playing against them.
@ryan: Gonzo, Slaton, SJax
@Sos: The order there
@Tankass: I like the trade for you.
@J.P.: hmm, anything else on the wire?
October 7th, 2009 at 9:47 am
I want to complement your site, you all are doing a great job. I just swooped up J. Harrison and wondering if I should start him or Westbrook for week 5. Also, I got S. Smith (car) cheap on a trade and it is either him or P. Harvin any thoughts?
October 7th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Which pair of backup/sleeper RB’s would you rather have the rest of the way?
1. Ryan Moats and Shonn Greene
2. Chris Brown and Justin Forsett
Or which combination of 2?
_________________
12 Team PPR League (1 Point)
Starters – QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, D, K, Flex*
*Flex can be ANY position
Starters -
QB – Rivers
Flex – Farve
RB – A. Peterson
RB – C. Portis/C. Benson
WR – R. White
WR – D. Jackson
WR – S. Moss
TE – Shiancoe
D – Vikings
K – Nedney
Bench:
RBs – F. Jones, C. Brown, J. Forsett
WRs – J. Gage, M. Clayton, M. Wallace
QB – D. Anderson
@The Gza: Thanks! I’d go with Westbrook. As long as he is good to go on Sunday.