Last Second Decisions Week 13, 2013 Fantasy Football

I hope everyone in Razzball Nation had a nice Thanksgiving! I decided to buck the trend and roasted up Tehol’s chicken for my centerpiece. Fingerlickin’ good!

So we’ve already had our three Thanksgiving games, and you’re all set with a round of leftovers for the rest of week 13. You’ve got gravy all over one hand and turkey grease from the wing all over the other, and you’re just not worrying about looking at you line-up. No one is on bye right?! But with all teams now in action, it gives you a lot more line-up decisions. A lot more “last second decisions.” Hey, that’s the name of the article! Yeah, I had nothing else better to run with in my Thanksgiving hangover. My stomache feels like an ever-expanding mushroom [gravy] cloud of stuffing. But I’m ready to go for today, ready to help you get into the playoffs, and ready for one last turkey sandwich while my Panthers wipe out da Bucs.

Looking back at last week’s picks, and a big capital F for a real big bad word for Chris Ogbonnaya, who I liked as a start and burned me bad yet again this season. But after that it was a big 4/5 with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jarrett Boykin, Shane Vereen and Kendall Wright all having really nice games. For my benchers, how about the Pierre Garcon call? Knew a bad one was coming, he was decent in PPR, but I’m calling that one a win. Then my dirty picks of bad RBs Trent Richardson and Ray Rice both worked out. Philip Rivers went off, but if the KC defense didn’t lose all those starters it could’ve been a different story, and Mike Wallace had a big game with a lot coming on a fluke-ish big play. Captain Munnerlyn looked slow and had no awareness on the long TD that was under-thrown. Luckily my Panthers made it 7 straight! And it was an overall nice week for LSD. Here’s who I like in week 12 and their % started in ESPN and Yahoo, respectively (NOTE – these are not always recommendations for 1-for-1 swaps, just guys I like who are understarted and guys I hate overstarted):

POSSIBLE STARTERS

Alex Smith (23.7%, 20%) It’s a little surprising just how good a fantasy option Smith has been lately, with 225+ yards and multi-TDs in three of the last four. Today’s throwdown against the Broncos v.2 should be rife with energy and passing, with a moderate temperature and little wind to limit Peyton on the other side. Shootout alert! I like Smith a lot this week.

Josh McCown (11.4%, 25%) Another deeper QB play that I think goes off today is McCown against a terrible Vikings defense that gives up the second-most points to opposing QBs in the league. McCown has huge targets to throw to and Matt Forte is all set to go in the dump-off game for an indoor controlled beatdown. He’s my DraftKings QB play this week and I think gets a bundle of yards with multi-TDs.

Donald Brown (21.0%, 13%) Brown had a big breakout two weeks ago against the Titans, and I think the Colts will do everything in their power to rekindle that running game. And the answer ain’t Trent Richardson! The Titans give up the third most points to opposing running backs and Brown should have running lanes wide enough for him, but too small for T-Rich.

Michael Floyd (12.3%, 49%) Following up the huge breakout in week 11, Floyd backed it up with another 100-yard game and gets a cheesesteak of a matchup against Philly, who give up the most points to opposing wideouts in the league. Their D is as soft as cream cheese! Now I’m hungry for more on top of the turkey sandwich! Love Floyd this week, and Yahoo is figuring it out.

Justin Hunter (0.2%, 1%) I saw a lot of the Titans game last week, and Hunter looks for real. Nick and I talked him up on this week’s Podcast, and with the Titans struggling to run in my crystal ball of a preview (more below), I think they’ll be pass-heavy. The Colts are 26th in points given up to WRs and Kendall Wright is garnering more and more attention. A great WR option available in a ton of leagues if you need a high-upside play.

SON OF A BENCH

Chris Johnson (93.9%, 85%) I think all conventional wisdom has CJmaybe1K a no-brainer start, but I have a feeling this is a rough game. You look back and see he had the big game against the Colts in week 11, but he did all that damage in the first quarter, then the Titans didn’t do squat on the ground. Well, I guess they did squat on the ground… Anywho, I think the Colts made the right adjustments and will be able to shut him down. With the bye weeks now over, I could see a lot of teams having better options.

Steven Jackson (60.2%, 47%) When I see the Bills on the schedule, I’m reminded of a time where I think they were the laughing stock of Run Ds. Maybe I’m making that up, but they’ve been quite the opposite this year, giving up three rushing TDs all year and the 5th least fantasy points to opposing RBs. Jackson looked good last week, but I don’t think it carries over to today in Canada. I think he’ll look a lot like Rob Ford out there.

Matt Ryan (54.0%, 54%) Sticking with the Foning it in Falcons, Ryan has been a good pick for me in the past and I think he lays another egg north of the border today. He’s off 5 straight subpar games and I like both the QBs listed above better. Side note – awesome that ESPN and Yahoo to the fraction have the exact same percent playing Ryan. I don’t know if LSD has ever seen that!

Vincent Jackson (88.3%, 90%) VJax was decent against my Panthers in week 8 with 5 for 79, but I think he does less than that in the repeat. The Panthers survived a tight one against Miami last week, and they’ll be ready and better prepared against a surging Bucs team. We were on a short week after a high-profile win, so I think we’ll look at a lot of tape and figure out coverages that got broken for Mike Wallace to have that nutso game. I’d weigh other options.

Tony Gonzalez (85.0%, 77%) I probably could’ve saved a lot of time by just putting “Atlanta Falcons” as a pick, but alas, Gonzo is not a strong play for this week for me either. In the past six, including the same five where we’ve seen Matt Ryan collapse, Gonzo has topped 43 yards only twice with only one TD. And this Bills D is legit. Gonzo is officially questionable at the time of this writing, and he’s got one foot out the door and into Canton. I’d look for a play with upside.

If you have any last second decisions, shoot some comments below or tweet me @jbgilpin – and remember I’m going to be a little slower getting to them but I’ll get to everything well before kickoff! Good luck in week 13!