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As a life long Panther fan, it’s usually been fantasy that’s carried me through the season, but flippity floppity and look at em go!  In the midst of their 6-game win streak I’ve seen my fantasy teams go to way of the Nick Capozzi David Wilson hot tub.  But I had decent starts in my leagues – I’m mostly around .500 on most teams (and mostly come out at night!  mostly…) – so there’s a few weeks left to cross my fingers and hope my Writer’s League team can make the playoffs after starting 8-0.  Because it’s looking really, really bad…

What’s great about the fantasy football season is that the pivotal weeks go down the next few weeks, and if I suffer a ridiculous Thanksgiving showing (something as nuts as say, Michael Floyd getting a bajillion points), I can just eat my pity away with Thanksgiving leftovers.  I’ll go into the day like Shawn Kemp as a rookie and leave it like Kemp as a Cav.  Except minus all the baby mamas!  Tryptophan isn’t exactly an aphrodisiac…  I hope you all have a great week 12 and Thanksgiving, and hope Razzball Nation crushes towards a 1st seed.

Looking back to last week’s picks, and my boy Marquise Goodwin!  I actually started him on the Writer’s League team and I’m part of the 1%!  Well, 1% start percentage… If only the other implication was really true… Because I would just buy Razzball and change the rest of my calls… Well Nick Foles was a win, but after that, horrific games from Andre Ellington and Bernard Pierce killed me, and Kris Durham, while not awful, was still a loss.  For my benchers, it was much much better with Colin Kaepernick a wash with 2 TDs but was horrific, C.J. Spiller, Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace were all terrible, and Danny Amendola is a push with the bulk catches for PPR players.  Pretty good week overall… Here’s who I like in week 12 and their % started in ESPN and Yahoo, respectively (NOTE – these are not always recommendations for 1-for-1 swaps, just guys I like who are understarted and guys I hate overstarted):

POSSIBLE STARTERS

Chris Ogbonnaya (9.5%, 19%) As I mentioned on this week’s podcast, Chris O-Bones had a whopping 12 targets last week, and it’s actually the second time this year he’s gotten 12 in a game out of the backfield.  The Browns QBs are seeing him more often out of the backfield than Michael Bolton in TV commercials lately.  I feel bad for Mike in Office Space!  I think Ogbonnaya might have a really surprising week and assume the vast majority of Browns touches this week, as he flashed a huge 8.6 YPC last Sunday (given a lot was due to a long 43-yarder) and 6 catches for 30.  I think he’s a must-start flex in PPRs.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (2.3%, 5%) Fitzy has actually been pretty good lately, and I think is being overlooked by teams with dire QB situations.  I’m one of them with Russell Wilson out in a deep 2-QB league, and I am rolling the dice with Fitzpatick who I think can succeed against an underwhelming Raiders pass D.  They’re a little better against the run, marginally so, but I think Fitzy can get a couple TDs as an emergency play.

Shane Vereen (9.0%, 39%) Yahoo is on the right page of this one, as I see the shootout in the Northeast involving a lot of Vereen.  They wasted no time giving him a big role in the passing game with 11 targets against my Panthers, and I think the Broncos win this one giving Vereen another big target game playing from behind.  Also, Stevan Ridley is one fumble away from seeing the bench all game, so there’s a tad more rushing upside as well.  Vereen is another must-start PPR play this week.

Jarrett Boykin (26.5%, 42%)  Boykin hasn’t only been a little surprise with all the Packers WR injuries, he’s now a major part of that offense.  In the past 5 weeks, he hasn’t only been decent, but has put up 4 big games.  The Vikings D is terrible, Scott Tolzien can’t have an efficient game, so this one should stay relatively close and enough so to keep Boykin producing.

Kendall Wright (9.7%, 44%)  I think it would surprise you that Wright has quietly become one of the most consistent wideouts in the NFL, racking up 54 or more yards every week since week 2.  And in those 9 straight, he’s been at 5 catches or more 8 times.  A pretty remarkable run.  While it’s also shocking he never topped 100 in any of those games, I think that could come this week.  As listed above, I like Ryan Fitzpatrick a lot and the Oakland pass D isn’t nearly as scary as some of those Oakland fans.  Keep rolling Wright out there.

SON OF A BENCH

Philip Rivers (38.6%, 34%)  P Riv has really cooled off, you could say he’s got a weak stream, with only one multi-TD game (and only 2 TDs at that) in the past 5 games.  Going into Arrowhead against a ticked off Chiefs team who lost their first game, Rivers is gonna get murdered in this one.

Pierre Garcon (63.2%, 90%)  This is a bold call, Garcon has been a beast, but I’ve got a bad feeling on this one.  Garcon is pulling a Kendall Wright with 50+ in all but one game (and that one only being 46!  So Garcon must be the most consistent!), but this is a Redskins team in turmoil that is going against a backs-to-the-wall 49ers team.  And it’ll be a defense that won’t have to worry about Jordan Reed or Leonard Hankerson, so triple cover Garcon and RG3 will be clueless.  You’ve got to be fairly loaded to bench Garcon, but I am in one league and feeling fine about it.

Mike Wallace (56.6%, 48%)  I feel a little dirty going with Wallace again, as I feel most astute fantasy players have abandoned ship faster than when the Borg came aboard.  I have no idea if that’s what happened, but I’m starting my Next Generation marathon to get caught up.  My Panthers are friggin’ awesome like P Stew and the Dolphins offensive line are all bullies.  Pass completely.

Ray Rice (84.5%, 76%)  Nope.  Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope.  Don’t buy it, he’s looked terrible, and the Jets give up the fewest points to opposing RBs in the league.  Avoiding.

Trent Richardson (72.1%, 42%)  This is another dirty one.  But hey, he’s in too many line-ups!  Sure a lot of dead league data (Brent Spiner!) is out there, but he should be in the single-digits!  A calf injury, he’s been passed by Donald Brown, have no idea why anyone would want him out there.

If you have any last second decisions, shoot some comments below or tweet me @jbgilpin - and remember I’m going to be a little slower getting to them but I’ll get to everything well before kickoff!   Good luck in week 12!

  1. Allan says:
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    JB, Should I start Kap or Fitzpatrick? Also pick 3 of the following WRs: Steve Smith, Rueben Randle, Jerrico Cotchery, Keenan Allen, Miles Austin. Lastly I am leaning towards starting Garrett Graham over Jordan Cameron, what do you think? Thanks for the writeups every week. They’re great.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Allan: I’d go Kap – bad defense he’s up against. I like Randle, Allen an Smith. I actually have that decision in a league as well. With Cameron on 4 teams (and a reason why I’m tanking lately) I rolled the dice on Graham

      • Allan says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks much appreciated.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Allan: Any time man! Sorry it gets a little late, perils of working third shift!

  2. Ecstatic Giraffe says:
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    Should I start Terrance Williams or Marlon Brown? As for running backs, I’m going with Andre Brown and Leveon bell over Ellington, good call?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Ecstatic Giraffe: T WIll. And yeah, I think that’s the right call on RBs

      • Ecstatic Giraffe says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thank you for the advice!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Ecstatic Giraffe: Any time thanks for stopping by!

  3. tim says:
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    Flex non-PPR: Ellington or Randle? I already have Cruz out there.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @tim: I’d go Randle… Ellington has the upside if you feel like you need the gamble, Randle I think is a little safer

    • the imp says:
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      @tim: Nicks is reported to be in jeopardy of not playing…makes Randle even safer.

  4. Oppo Taco says:
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    R Jennings or l bell in .5 ppr
    John Carlson rob housler or Jared cook .5ppr (Jordan reed picked the worst week to miss a game)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Oppo Taco: I think Bell still. Ugh, yeah that sucks, I think Cook, but don’t love it

  5. nyydj2 says:
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    All of the rankings without question say Keenan Allen should be my WR3 this week in our 16 team non PPR league. I’m a bit skittish with Rivers lately and the matchup. Options are Santonio Holmes @ Balt. and his QB totally sucked last week at Buff, or T. Underwood at Detroit but his targets are few. What would you do here? Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @nyydj2: I think you still gotta roll Allen out there… Hold up knee!

  6. Tommy says:
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    I know no one likes defense questions but start Arizona or Giants?

    Also McCown or Kaep?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Tommy: Haha it’s no prob! I’d go Zona. And Kap

  7. Bitchesbeshoppach says:
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    Donald brown or Aaron Dobson for my flex? .5 ppr

  8. Sniff Test says:
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    I need to pick two rbs .5 PPR : leviathan bell, Shane Vereen. Bobby Rainey

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sniff Test: Tough to pick against Rainey… So I’ll go him and Bell, even though I like Verenn a lot

  9. Sniff Test says:
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    Luck or Eli ?

    • Must Win! says:
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      6pt. TD -2 Int/fumble -6 pick 6

      Romo or Eli?

      .5 PPR

      Boykin or Randle?

      Thx JB

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sniff Test: I’d go Luck

  10. Zandy says:
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    Start ogre, Ryan Mathews or Dobson at the flex this week?
    Who should be my bottom bench spot: Starks, pierce, buf D, Dan carpenter?
    Standard league and I’m in first here’s my squad
    Brees, Calvin, Djax, Stacey, Rainey, ogre, keenan, Mathews, Dobson, Stevie j, shonn, rishard, CLE and Hartley
    I’d be dropping Hartley next week with No’s upcoming schedule. Would use buffalo d in week 14 @TB when CLE plays New England and that’s if I don’t keep my bye week otherwise play buf at JAX instead of CLE vs chi in week 15…
    Thoughts?

    • Zandy says:
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      @Zandy: oh yea reed and witten at te but that doesn’t really matter

      • Zandy says:
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        @Zandy: sorry for the triple add jstew and ingram to the bottom of the bench list. Thanks!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Zandy: PPR O-Bones. So you’re picking up one of those 4? Prob Pierce for the gamble. I almost never hold multi-Ds. Yeah like the TEs and still think it’s Pierce

      • Zandy says:
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        @JB Gilpin: standard league sorry

        Also pierce over jstew for the gamble?

        • Zandy says:
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          @Zandy: yea picking up one of Starks pierce Ingram and jstew — sorry about that buddy

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Zandy: No prob just wanted to be sure I answered right!

  11. Must Win! says:
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    Sorry didn’t mean to reply to the guys question.

    Have to win this game and Roddy White put me behind 8 ball already.

    6pt. TD
    -2 Int/fumble
    -6 pick 6

    Romo or Eli?

    .5 PPR

    Boykin or Randle?

    Thx JB

    • Must Win says:
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      @Must Win!:

      Looks like Nicks is now possibly out too….but weather is worse for Randle vs Boykin

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Must Win!: No prob! Ugh yeah I had to roll White in a league too, so frustrating. I’d go Romo. Then I still like Boykin despite chilly

  12. Bear Down says:
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    1pt ppr flex, James jones or joique bell? Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bear Down: Tough one…. I think I might go Bell and hope Stafford can construct a blowout

  13. eltoo says:
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    PPR, flex Keenan allen (vs KC), Shorts (vs Hou), or Ellington (vs Ind)?
    Gracias

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @eltoo: I like Allen there and hope the knee holds up!

  14. Joey says:
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    Must bench one in flex/lineup: Lacy, Stacy, Tate, Jennings, Andre Brown, Kaepernick. Who do you sit?

    • Joey says:
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      @Joey: @Joey: .5pt PPR btw.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Joey: Wow… Nice decisions to have, I think I’d bench Tate

  15. J$ says:
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    So which three would you start out of these guys, Josh Gordon, Larry Fitz, garcon, Cruz? Ppr league.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @J$: You know, I’m leaving out Garcon. Just have a bad feeling.

  16. Bryan says:
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    Any reason to sit Brady tonight based on the weather (wind) and start Keenum?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Bryan: nahhhh, Brady is used to this shizz

  17. I could bench Garcon, but I would have to play Josh Gordon against the Pittsburgh on a windy, frigid day.

    • Also, it’s snowing in Cleveland right now and the weather report says it ” feels like 9 degrees”.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @James R: I still think I’d bench Garcon, getting Gordon looks in the swing game.

  18. Anthony says:
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    @JB GILPIN: Which D to roll with Ravens vs NYJ or Texas @ JAC ?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Anthony: I’d go Ravens. Geno Turnover Smith to work it

  19. Principle Blackman says:
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    Should I gamble on orange Julius playing tonight, or should I start Garrett Graham in a must win week in a PPR league? There won’t really be any good options if I wait till tonight and JT can’t go. On the other hand if I start JT I can stash Chris Ogbonbonbonbonbinya in case he goes off today. My #12 Waiver Position means I definitely would miss out on him if I leave him out there and he does anything good. PPR/PPRA/Ret Yards
    My squad:
    QB Cam Newton
    RB Vereen, Mathews
    WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders
    TE Orange Julius or Graham
    QWRT: JRR Tolzien
    BN Sproles, Ellington, AJ Green, Desean Jacson, Nick Foles

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Principle Blackman: Ugh. I’d play Graham. I just picked up Delaine Walker in a league for the TE safety. The fact they were so non-committal didn’t bode well. I want you to have O-Bones, but I think I’d take the safety

  20. Dave The Barber says:
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    Donald Brown or Bobby the Hilltopper?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Dave The Barber: Hah that’s Rainey right? Rainey for me.

      • Dave The Barber says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Yezzir. He went to WKU.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Dave The Barber: Ahhhhh gotcha. Last time I rememeber that name thinking back was when that dude hit the long three in the tourney

  21. Chris says:
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    Gotta play a Miami wr. Wallace or Matthews?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Chris: Ugh, Matthews

  22. Principle Blackman says:
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    BTW I finally cut bait on T-Rich. What a liberating feeling!

  23. Mike says:
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    Start Ogbonayya vs. Pitt or Chris Ivory @Bal?

    • the imp says:
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      @Mike: In PPR, especially, I think Ogbanayya is safer. Ivory has the potential for a big day, but it seems like his performances require the Jets to be close or ahead. Boom or bust.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mike: Agree PPR its OBones, Ivory in non

  24. Greg says:
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    Last time I asked, we agreed to put Mike James in and he broke his mofo’ing ankle. Bad omen especially considering the history of one of the guys I am about to ask about.

    PPR league. I have three spots for WR so I have to sit one of D. Thomas, E. Decker, T.Y. Hilton, or D. Amendola. I really think the night game is going to be a total, like 40-something to 40-something, shootout so I am leaning towards putting Hilton on the bench, especially since he is going against solid AZ pass coverage. It is killing me, though.

    I’m also looking for news on Aqib Talib. If he is not playing or not 100%, I especially like my DEN receivers, but if he is healthy he might shut down Thomas.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Greg: Hah – yeah tough to ever project for that. Eh, the one bad thing is the weather there…I think I bench hilton though too. I’d play your guys in that game and hope the wind doesn’t slow em down!

      • Greg says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Thanks man, I live in Boston and the weather wasn’t so bad this morning, I’m gonna go with the guys in that game. As always, thanks for your great column and I think the attention you and everyone at Razzball pays to the comments section is unreal. UNREAL. Can I donate a few bucks to express my gratitude? For reals.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Greg: Yea man any time! You can grab me a crown and coke as the first banner under the top article over on hoops:

          http://basketball.razzball.com/

          Need a crown to warm my bones on this cold day!

  25. Frank White says:
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    Wutup Big JB…. Emmanuel Sanders or Bowe??

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank White: Hey man… I think I actually like Bowe for ya this week

      • Frank White says:
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        Thank Man… Good luck on your games today!!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Frank White: You too!

  26. guidedbyvoices says:
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    whats up JB?

    McCown or Flacco?

    non ppr flex,pick one….Ivory,L. Bell,Hilton or Boykin?

    also….h2h league w/ QB completions weighing heavily….Keenum,Flacco,McCown or Glennon?

    thnks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @guidedbyvoices: I’d go Flacco (yikes!). I like Bell there. Then Flacco in that one too, but I would undertsand spreading your bets. Glennon I like 2nd

  27. Heraldo says:
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    Should I really start Miles Austin over Terrance Williams?

    • SMLV1 says:
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      @Heraldo: No

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Heraldo: Nah

  28. Burt Macklin says:
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    .5 PPR, need two

    Jordy Nelson
    Antonio Brown
    Andre Brown

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Burt Macklin: I like the Browns

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Burt Macklin: Mannn, check that, I need to learn to never bet against Haden. I’d play Nelson, but tough to bench Antonio

      • Burt Macklin says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        My thoughts exactly. Haden is a stud. Gut says Jordy and Andre, so I’ll just keep it as is. Thanks mang

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Burt Macklin: Any time! Get the win today, I have faith in ya with Burt Macklin on the case!

  29. SMLV1 says:
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    I have lived in western P.A. my whole life, so I have seen a ton of steelers games….Big Ben usually preforms well in bad weather. With that said still rolling with Cleveland D today?

    Other options

    Ten @ oak
    Det vs TB
    Pit @ Cle

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SMLV1: I think I might actually go TEN and hope McGloin looks a lot worse than last week

  30. guidedbyvoices says:
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    one more….ppr flex….Vereen or Andre Brown?

    thnks again.

  31. Barker says:
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    Amendola or colston opponent has brady

    10 team .5 ppr

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Barker: Well Colston has played…

    • Barker says:
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      @Barker: not colston antonio brown

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Barker: Ah gotcha, yea I go Dola

  32. Frank White says:
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    Oh real quick. If Julius Thomas doesn’t play , flex, then should I start Dreesen ot Pettis?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank White: Ugh, I’d guess Dreessen, Pettis isn’t part of that offense anymore

      • Frank White says:
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        Oh Ish I meant Austin?

  33. Frank White says:
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    I can still change.. Austin from STL

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank White: Still Dreessen. Tavon only 2 targets in the big game I think. Maybe it was only 3

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank White: Austin just got such a fluke TD… Ugh… you just never know in the NFL

  34. Frank White says:
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    Great Thanks again!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Frank White: Any time!

  35. J-FOH says:
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    Panthers fan your entire life?…then that makes you 18

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @J-FOH: Yes. I’m 25. I didn’t really understand team fandom before I was 5 or 6 when they announced Carolina would have a team then I was hooked. My brother is an original PSL owner and his name is enshrined on one of the Panthers

      • J-FOH says:
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        @JB Gilpin: oh, so it was a figure of speech. I thought you were like 40 or something like that

  36. MattTruss223 says:
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    Yo JB, wanted to give you a shout and say nice work on the podcast this week, you killed it. Reminded me of the old school baseball podcast when it was just Rudy and Grey chatting about players for an hour, informative, on track and easy listening. Well done.

    Joined ya in the $2 millionaire qualifier, i’ve been in the past couple weeks but with no luck yet. Wouldn’t that be sweet to land a buy-in to that thing? $1500! $1,000,000!! Crazy right there. I had zero luck the first few times Razzball hosted a tourney on Draftkings. That goes for baseball and football. I walked away from it for awhile, but came back about 3 weeks ago to nice success. Things seem to be clicking all of a sudden. I won a ticket for the $109 Sunday 200 Grand tourney, pretty sweet. I also cashed in some of the triple-ups and the $2 Play Action tourney. Daily’s a blast when you’re winning, haha. Ogbonnaya is on all my draftkings rosters this week, so fingers crossed that that call’s a good one. Good luck this week man and well done once again.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @MattTruss223: Thanks man! It was a lot of fun… LIke my inner monologue of reactions! Stacy is looking really good, I see Weeden got an attempt I hope Campbell isn’t hurt… I need that ticket! Burleson is killing it for whoever gambled on him…

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