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It’s very possible by the time this post comes out, people will have figured out about Matt Ryan and what he can do for their team.  I get that but right now I’m looking at a quarterback who is being overlooked given his set-up.  Though I’m sure he won’t hold here, having him currently sit as the 16th best QB off the board behind Matt Schaub and – YIKES – Tim Tebow according to Mock Draft Central makes me feel I need to defend him in 500 words or less.  Your honor, I object!  On what grounds?  Um, he’s better than that…man, I need to pay more attention to these law dramas.  Anyways, Ryan finished as the 8th best quarterback according to ESPN’s player rater.  So how does he get ranked at half price come draft day?  I don’t know, the jury is still out on that (sorry, still thinking about that law drama thing).

So you have to keep in mind this isn’t exactly a sleeper piece since it’s about a guy that will most likely be drafted as a QB1.  I know, kinda a weird quarterback to write a post on but bear with me.  Notice I didn’t say ‘bare’.  Put your shirt back on, you’re embarrassing me.  Except for you, the 4 female razzball readers…how YOU doin.  Anywho, what we have here is a perfect storm of sorts for Ryan to outperform his current ADP and that’s what this article is all about.  To set up the positives, we need to first look at some negatives.  The negative is Michael Turner.  No, not for Ryan, for Turner owners this year.  Turner has drifted into the age where he can try out for the remake of the show ‘Thirtysomething’.  This could very well be the year the lead back starts slowing down given the wear and tear of his seasons in Atlanta.  Now you do want some semblance of a running game to set up the pass and I do think Turner will provide that along with Jacquizz Rodgers.  However, Ryan should air it out more this year than he’s needed to in the past and thankfully he has the weapons at hand to make that not be a bad thing.  When you have Julio Jones and Roddy White battling for your passing affection, it’s hard to go wrong.  In fact, we found it so hard to decide who would have the bigger year between the two, we had to have a Fantasy Face/Off about it.  In that link, you’ll find more links to an article about each receiver.  It’s like Razzception (cue the Ricola horn gone bad sound).  Personally, I think they both have big years.  If not, it would be kinda silly to write a post about Ryan, wouldn’t it?  When you couple Julio stretching the field out and Roddy doing his 100 reception thing with Tony Gonzalez and his seemingly ageless beauty ability, you’ve really got a quarterback with the potential to bust through the 30 passing touchdown plateau for the first time in his career.  If the OTA talks of more no-huddle offense actually sticks, you might be looking at 35 TD potential but I’m not going to base my fantasy prognosis on the whims of off-season talk.  Overall, if he finishes as the 5th or 6th best quarterback at the end of 2012, I’m not going to be surprised.  If not, I still think you’re getting a bargain with how he’s being ranked.  The defense rests, your honor.

2012 Projections: 4300 pass yds, 32 pass TD, 13 INT, 75 rush yds, 1 rush TD, 1 fumble lost

 

  1. David_KOA says:
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    @Sky,
    Yikes!!! At whoever is doing the rankings over at MDC. Also shame on the mock drafters for letting his name sit at it’s current ADP.

    Over at fantasyfootballcalculator(FFC) his current asking price is 7.07(11th) QB off the board. This asking price seems more realistic too what we should expect come August.

    I still see some value in his current draft position over at FFC. Matt should be right in the mix to finish as a top 10 QB(fantasy) for 2012. Worst case you get no value from him and you still have a low-end QB1.

    I could see him pass for in the neighborhood of 4300 yards and hover around 30 TDs for 2012

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yeah, I wouldn’t argue that going rate even though I do think 11th QB is still lower than he should be. Overall, depending on who you’re drafting with, Ryan is looking like a reasonable bargain all around. Overall, Atlanta is trying to become a pass first offense from all the OTA reports. He was almost a 30/10 guy last year so a few more chances should give him that extra boost.

      • David_KOA says:
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        @Sky,
        I also would not be surprised if we see Matt Ryan’s name, in the top 7 among his position(QB) for fantasy points. Outside of what I believe to be the top six(this is in no order) Vick, Stafford, Brees, Rodgers, Brady & Newton. After those six names comes a cluster of quality QBs. I really see it as being a tossup, when trying to predict 7-10 in 2012. The only way, I see Matt cracking the top 6 is baring a injury to one of those top six QBs.

        I’m sure you and your writers already have the face/off planned for the summer. Just in case you are still looking or taking ideas. I think a interesting debate would be Philip Rivers vs Matt Ryan. Right now according to FFC: Rivers- 7.01(10th) Ryan- 7.07(11th) QBs off the board.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          We just might do that one; we’re planned out for the next two weeks but we’ll have to see how much more we can squeeze in. We’ve got a full slate coming up!

          My QB ratings shouldn’t surprise you too much with this info :) There’s three ‘R’ quarterbacks in a row for me after the top 6. I’m sure you know who they are.

          • David_KOA says:
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            @Sky,
            That is awesome to read about the full slate of material coming our way!

            I would not be surprised, if we see the QBs finishing 7-10 all have last names starting with ‘R’ going back to some of our conversations one of those QBs, I have a feeling you will not agree with.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              There’s still time for some off-season news to sway me. It ain’t posted so it ain’t set in stone yet!

  2. Mr2Bits says:
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    Guy in my keeper PPR league just Wes Welker on the block. Was thinking about offering him Ahmad Bradshaw and a pick but not sure what round and was hoping to get your thoughts.

    Id also have to lose one of these 5 keepers, which one would you throw back?

    Darren McFadden
    Roddy White
    Matt Forte
    Andre Johnson
    Michael Vick

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I think I’d rather stand pat with the keepers you have, personally.

  3. Steve says:
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    Hey Sky,

    how are you? Do you remember me, my team, my trade offer? Not finished yet, but close.
    McCoy + 2nd overall pick 2012 + 2nd round 2012 (early) for Forte + Nicks + 1st 2013. Only negative side is, I’m getting no WR in return, oh well.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      It’s still early enough in the comments for me to remember;) Its tough but I think you’re getting the better player overall since you also get RG3 with that 2nd overall pick. WR is pretty deep so you should be fine. I’d go for it.

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