We are once again into the mock draft season and I’ve joined some twitter friends for my first mock of the season. You can check out the progress here. And just below you can see my thoughts on the first round. This is a PPR league, which really opens this draft up and makes it pretty interesting. It isn’t exactly a mock since we will play this out, but with no lineup changes, pickups or trades. The team with the most cumulative points wins.
1. @yourgridironfix: Arian Foster: I don’t have any problem with Foster going first. I don’t think it is a slam dunk in any format, but it’s very hard to argue with. I worry a little about his TD numbers going down, but he is used a ton in the passing game and with Kubiak and his zone blocking still in place I think Foster should have another good season.
2. @ChetRazzball: Jamaal Charles: I thought a lot about this pick. I still like Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson a ton and LeSean McCoy is a PPR monster, but I’m swinging for the fences here. It really won’t take much of an increase in touches to put JC back into the top 5. I’m not sure what is going to happen with Thomas Jones, but there is a decent chance he will be cut and even if he isn’t, his 2.8 yards a carry in the last half of the season is not lead back material. Haley isn’t going to give the ball to Charles 25 times a game, but I do think we’ll see an uptick in both carries and receptions.
3. @BNQuinlan: LeSean McCoy: Like I said, Shady is a PPR stud, but does he deserve to go above AP and CJ? Good question. I can easily see McCoy with his arse load of receptions being the pick here. I would really like to know who will be QBing the Titans and the Vikings before I invest a lot into players from either team.
4. @Fantasytaz: Ray Rice: I thought this was a risky pick, but one that has a lot of upside. If it works out that McGahee leaves and Rice gets the goalline carries, he could have the most upside out of any player in PPR leagues. I am worried a little about his 4.0 yards per carry. I know anything at 4 yards a carry is considered good, but it is a big drop off from his 5.3 in ’09. As long as he improves on his 6 total TDs, I’m not too worried.
5. @RookieDraft: Adrian Peterson: He had his worst yardage total ever last season and it was due mainly to the poor quarterback play. He’s going to get his TDs, but his jump in receptions in ’09 was due mainly to Favre playing out of his mind. Unless the Vikings get someone like Kevin Kolb and not Vince Young, I’m going to wait on him, just like this group did. I’d still be happy with him here in PPR.
6. @circulargenius: Chris Johnson: CJ2K didn’t score a touchdown in half of his games last season, which shows you just how up and down he was. He was still a good fantasy player, but the Titans quarterback conundrum was a big part of his inconsistency. Like AP it’s hard to be totally on board until we know who will be at the helm, but also like AP it’s almost impossible to pass on him at #6.
7. @mschauf63: Maurice Jones-Drew: Even with his bone on bone action, MJD had a productive season yardage wise. His TD numbers were the worst of his career and his first three seasons weren’t even as the lead back. He had some bad luck in the TD department and if he stays healthy I see that number going back into the double digits, but that is a healthy “if.” I’m no doctor, oh wait, I’m no bone on bone doctor, but I am worried about MJD. In PPR it is hard to pass on him at 7, but I think I would. Someone like Andre Johnson, Roddy White or even Frank Gore seem safer to me here.
8. @FtblSickness: Matt Forte: Forte finished as the 9th best back in PPR last season and came on strong toward the end. Did Martz and Forte finally get on a track that will continue into next season? It’s hard not to like the possibilities, especially in PPR. 8th overall seems a little high to me. I believe he can live up to this pick, but I worry about his inconsistency and trouble around the goal line.
9. @AndrewMiley: Andre Johnson: AJ missed three games due to injury and was slowed down by his ankle in even more, but still put up respectable numbers. He shouldn’t have any trouble being 100% next season and regaining his #1 receiver position. In PPR I’d take him here every time.
10. @PFF_MikeClay: Frank Gore: I really like Gore here. He was having a great PPR year when he hurt his hip and all signs are pointing to him recovering well. I’d probably go with Gore over MJD and Forte. He is an injury risk, but his upside is too high to wait on.
11. @Bryan_Fontaine: Aaron Rodgers: You know I don’t like taking QBs in the first round. This is a 4 pt passing TD and 6 pt rushing TD league, so QBs like Rodgers and Vick that get into the end zone by themselves have a little more upside. He’s a very safe pick, but once again I would take someone like Roddy White here who should be a top 10 scorer in PPR and far out play other receivers whereas the difference between Rodgers and Peyton/Tom/Phil/Tony, etc isn’t enough for me to take him in the first round.
12. @C_Southwick: Michael Vick: If you are going to take a risk on a QB this early, I think it has to be Vick. I will have Rodgers over him in my rankings, but his upside is crazy high. Of course the reason you have to worry about him is the number of times he’ll be hit. The chances that he won’t miss a game or two are pretty poor, but you saw what he can do. I won’t be taking the risk, but the rewards are insanely high.