Don't be shellfish...Tweet about this on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on Google+Share on Reddit

It’s that time of year. A time when everyone is looking at their fantasy baseball team in disgust while they turn to fantasy football drafts for hope and a reason to live again.  It’s a bittersweet season where we look upon our Sundays with a sense of joy and wonder in our eyes.  It’s also a time for us to not be on guard for what we should be fearful of.  While I’m not trying to bring you down, I do want to remind you of last year when you said ‘Man, I have an awesome team.  Check it out, I have Michael Vick, Kenny Britt, and Mark Ingram.  They should just give me that trophy now!’  Well, Ozymandius, I’d really hate to see you repeat the same mistake and so would the people over at the Fantasy Pros who are providing everyone who’s smart enough to take full control of their draft by using their CheatSheetWizard.  So without further ado and for your reading and draft prep pleasure, we’d like to take a look at some players that are gonna have you lying flat on your back by the end of the season if you draft them.  Since we’re doing our Razzball Commenter Leagues via yahoo – and we’re still doing it so come on over and create a league or join one – we’ll be using yahoo rankings for review.  Whether it’s draft day cost, injury history or just a career full of hope that has only lead to nope, let’s take a look at Razzball and Fantasy Pros 2012 All-Lucy Van Pelt team.

QB: Peyton Manning – I want to be wrong.  Trust me, when I think back to the Peyton Manning glory days I get just as nostalgic as you do.  But pull off your rose-tinted glasses that can only see 2010 or prior and think about what he did in 2011: Nada, zilch, bupkis.  That’s just a few more ways Seinfeld can describe his shows about nothing.  When you consider his current draft price of 55 in yahoo leagues ahead of guys like Tony Romo (56) and Matt Ryan (76), you’re taking on more risk than you need to with a 36 year old quarterback at a talent rich position.

WR1: Roddy White – It’s all about draft day price with this one.  I still think Roddy is going to have a great 2012 season, but are we really going to draft him ahead of guys like Greg Jennings and with the 19th pick to boot?  And what exactly does ‘to boot’ mean anyway?  But I digress, I love Roddy just not that much in 2012 as the team announced a reduced workload for him and he’ll be competing with Julio Jones for looks and targets.  This ranking has ‘AUUGH!’ written all over it.

WR2: Andre Johnson – Look, I get it, the dude is a beast when he’s healthy.  Andre is competing with Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald for wide receiver supremacy if he plays a full 16 game season.  As nice as it would be to experience that, he’s only done it 5 out of the 9 seasons he’s played with the last time it happened being 2009.  That’s 4 different times Lucy has pulled the ball out from underneath you and twice in a row.  Are you gonna let it happen again with the 25th pick?

WR3: Sidney Rice – I hate to pick on Sidney but it’s time to face facts: wide receivers without functional arms don’t do much receiving.  I say this because Rice had not one but two surgeries on his shoulders over the off-season.  The kicker to this bit of info which is weird because we’re talking about arms and arms don’t kick?  It wasn’t just to one arm, it was on both.  As much as I’d like to believe they can rebuild him because they have the technology, I could just as easily take Pierre Garcon with the 86th pick instead.  We have the technology too, you know.  It’s called the internet.  Let’s all do a little research before spending our 83rd pick on a receiver.

RB1: Chris Johnson – We went over CJ2K in a Fantasy Flatliners post yesterday by Andrew.  Even if I disagreed with him, I’m here to show some solidarity.  We are family, get up everybody and sing.  Overall, he’s being ranked as the 8th pick off the board in yahoo leagues.  Yes, I have him 12th in my 2012 fantasy football rankings but had this to say about him: ‘What I see is two straight years of decline after nearly 400 touches in 2009 and though a rebound off of 2011 is almost a given, I don’t think it goes all that high.’  See, that’s me being pessimistic despite the ranking.  It also just seems downright hypocritical.  Sorry about that, it is written into my fantasy expert analyst contract to contradict myself as much as possible over the course of the season to create conflict.  You know, like reality television.  See, I’m just getting started earlier than most.

RB2: Michael Turner – Alright, let me get this straight.  Over the last six games of 2011, this guy only gave us one game with over 3.6 yards per carry and it was the 17th game of the season.  Then in early May, Atlanta stated they would be reducing Turner’s workload for the 2012 season.  And yet, yahoo is putting him as #37th off the board, ahead of running backs such as Steven Jackson and Darren Sproles?  The days of 300 touches are over here, we need to be reasonable when looking at Turner’s role and production for 2012.

TE: Antonio Gates - You tell me the last time you heard ‘Antonio Gates’ and ‘100% healthy’ in the same sentence and I’ll put money on it that it’s from Ron Burgundy; he’ll read anything you put on that prompter.  Like many football players, Gates has dealt with nicks and dings from time to time throughout his career but his most recent two seasons have seen him only play 23 of a possible 32 games due to nagging foot issues.  When you factor in his age of 32, you have to question his current rank of 45 in yahoo leagues as the 3rd best option at TE especially with players such as Aaron Hernandez and Vernon Davis going below him in the draft.  With a position as deep as Tight End, spending that early of a pick on it could prove costly for an oft-injured star.

Flex: BenJarvus Green-Ellis – I think people are looking at the 24 touchdowns since 2010 a little too hard here.  The Law Firm doesn’t catch passes, has landed in a time share with Bernard Scott on a team that totaled 10 rushing TDs in 2011 and he’s being ranked ahead of a guy like Peyton Hillis.  Don’t get me wrong, I like acronyms as much as anyone but I’m not taking BJGE with the 66th pick.

From Around The Web

  1. David_KOA says:
    (link)

    @Sky,
    When you look at the last five regular season games for Roddy White he put up a stat line of 7.2 catches, 93.4 yards & .8 TD’s. It looks to be more of a positive for Roddy White having Julio Jones produce.

    As a fantasy owner you have to like all the news coming out of the Falcons camp. It is driving down the price of one Michael Turner. It should only get lower as the summer continues to roll. He is becoming available in the 5th round of drafts. Even if his total touches are reduced to around 270, he is a lock for goal-line work and double digit TD’s.

    As you know, I have been calling BJGE a bust all summer. The guy could only muster a 3.69 YPC in the Patriots offense. What makes fantasy owners think, he is going to do any better in a Bengals uniform? He is not even the most talented RB and don’t be surprised if Benard Scott brings the best value out of the Bengals backfield in 2012.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      My only issue with Roddy is price. I don’t think Julio’s arrival makes him irrelevant but I do think a late second round pick is a tad pricey given the WR market heading into the season and the options behind him.

      I agree Turner’s the goal line back and has a great shot at being a double digit TD threat. I’m simply saying his going price when compared to other players that should be goal line backs – why I compared him to Hillis who will actually get his fair share of touches both on the ground and through the air – is pretty high.

      Yeah, when they went with the RBBC, I backed off my love for BJGE quite drastically. I looked at him like I saw Cedric Benson: quantity over quality.

      • David_KOA says:
        (link)

        @Sky,
        If we are going off the RCL settings 10 team(non ppr), 2RB/3WR & no flex. I really don’t have an issue with him sitting at 19. We have seen that even when Julio Jones blows up that Roddy White can still produce numbers to warrant that position. I would say you have a group of WR’s after Megatron and Fitz(standard). That include Julio Jones, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks & A.J. Green. These guys could all finish in the top five at WR(fantasy). The beauty is that one these will/should be an option for you in the 3rd round.

        In your article you compare Payton Hillis to BJGE. I don’t think it is fair or realistic to compare Michael Turner and Payton Hillis. Michael Turner is the lead back on a high powered offense. When you compare that to Payton Hillis who is backing up Jamaal Charles and playing for the Chiefs. It does sound like the Chiefs want to run the football this year. So I would say as of now Payton Hillis can carry serviceable RB3 production for both formats.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          It’ll be interesting to see how Roddy settles in. Again, like I said in my post, I still like him but I do think we will see some pullback this year due to how the team approaches things.

          Atlanta is going to be throwing a lot this year, or at least that is their goal. I worry he’s going to become a ‘show me’ running back; someone used to remind the defense that Atlanta still has an RB back there. As you know from my rankings, I have him behind Steven Jackson and Darren Sproles. I think he’s being overvalued based on history and name this year and won’t provide enough to be worthy of a 37th pick in most drafts.

  2. Moock says:
    (link)

    I love all the hating going on with Peyton… He has more weapons than ever before, an o-line that is huge, a bunch of good rbs, a full season of rest and a lot to prove (especially since Eli won another ring). I expect him to have a huge fantasy year… I predict he will have better numbers than Cam, Stafford and possibly Vick.
    CJ2K will also have a monster year. The Titans are starting to put it back together with qb play and sound coaching. They play Indy and Jacksonville twice… nuffsaid!
    Nice article though, enjoyable to read!

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Ha, thanks Moock!

      Actually, where Peyton’s being ranked I think he’s getting a little too much love, quite honestly. I think he has a shot to be an elite QB again but he’s never going to run like Vick/Cam for touchdowns and he is a bit old. I just think there’s more risk than reward with his current pricing.

      Trust me, I’d love to be wrong about CJ2K. I do have him ranked fairly high in my own rankings but don’t know if I trust him as much as others do with where he’s getting drafted.

  3. iMP says:
    (link)

    Great article idea.

    I like that you explored some relatively controversial calls (White, CJ, and Gates) and left some other obvious candidates like AP, Charles, Best, and Britt off your list.

    I afraid I couldn’t agree more on Manning and hope someone takes him early in my league so I can afford to wait for Ryan, Rivers, etc. If Pittsburg could get Wallace into camp (a big if) we’d be in great shape at QB in 12 team leagues.

    What are your ideas about buyer beware for the DEN receivers? I think that if we are worried about Peyton’s health, you have to worry about what happens to DT, Decker and Tamme if he goes down.

    Also, what is your take on the value of the NE offense with the addition of Lloyd? My take is that Hernandez (who had a role most similar to Lloyd’s new one) has a little bit more risk to take a hit, but that WW and Gronk are susceptible too.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      Thanks. Yeah, I wanted to explore cost more than injury risk where I could while highlighting some lesser known ‘gotchas’.

      Overall, I’m leery of them and probably won’t get any of them on draft day because of it. I have DT much lower in my rankings than most do. Too much talent at TE/WR so I don’t feel the need to bank on Manning.

      I think Tom has a shot at having a banner year. Deion Branch caught 51 passes last year, Wes 122, Gronk 90, and Hernandez 79. Basically I’m seeing those 51 now going to Lloyd plus a few scrapes off of Wes/Gronk/Aaron’s plate to give him about 65 total for the year. All and all, not a huge subtraction from anyone or at least not to the point where I’m worried.

Comments are closed.