Statistical Strategery: Week 6
October 13, 2009
Category: 2009 Fantasy Football
I’ve compiled some statistics here that I think might be useful for this week. The first chart looks at passing defenses for week 6 while the second at rushing defenses. Trying to decide what statistics work best for fantasy football has always been a difficult decision for me. I like to know how good a defense really is while at the same time I like to know how they fit into the fantasy realm. Defenses with Orcs and Cave Trolls usually are better than those with Hobbits and Humans, think Jack Lambert vs. Rudy.
I have taken three statistics and mushed them up. The first is the old constant, yards given up per game, passing or rushing. The second is fantasy points given up to QBs/RBs per game (standard scoring). The third is yards per attempt, passing or rushing.
Remember, these numbers are where they rank in each of these categories. The Giants haven’t given up 1 yard per game through the air even if it seems like they have!
So first off, here is the passing chart with matchups for week 6:
Now let’s take a look at the rushing chart with matchups for week 6:
We have some posts coming up with pass and rush defense analysis for this week that take a look at individual players, but I know some of you like to see as much raw data as you can so take a look and tell me what you think! Hope it helps.
I’d like to thank @YankeeMeginPHL for helping me excel at Excel!
October 14th, 2009 at 3:13 am
Knew Denver’s D was a surprise this year but seeing them at the top of both charts made me think they must’ve played all their OAK and KC games already but that’s not the case. One game against the Raiders and the rest against not terrible teams. They’re also 4th in the league with 14 takeaways w/ a difference of +6 (meaning they’re O is not often sticking their D in a bad spot).
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/nfl/stats/turnovers
October 14th, 2009 at 5:22 am
should i just trot out DEN D @ SD this week, or should i gamble on someone like TB v. CAR or JAX v. STL?
October 14th, 2009 at 5:54 am
yes,i like to wait 4 or 5 weeks before studying defenses,and i just started checking on them,this works out great .thanks
October 14th, 2009 at 6:46 am
Great chart….I’m seriously considering playing Matt Ryan for another week over Philip Rivers. That Denver defense just worries me.
October 14th, 2009 at 6:49 am
Considering a Trade
I get Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Mason
I give Steve Slaton and Mike Sims-Walker
Execute?
October 14th, 2009 at 6:54 am
Hey Doc,
Who do you like better this week in PPR? Kevin Walter or Eddie Royal?
October 14th, 2009 at 6:54 am
Any updates on the WR ranks for rest of season?
October 14th, 2009 at 7:12 am
@Vargo: no no no.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:14 am
@Vargo: at best bradshaw probably gives you slaton-ish production. and i’d take msw’s production (when he’s not suspended) and upside over mason. fwiw, JAX is also gonna have to be throwing a lot to stay in games, whereas most weeks BAL figures to be more balanced or playing from ahead.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:29 am
@ThePoonTycoon:
he also has jacobs and be willing for a little less
i get Jacobs and mason
give up slaton and hester
October 14th, 2009 at 7:53 am
Though I’m unable to look at the sheet itself Doc to confirm I can’t help but feel that there is a problem with the ARI numbers in the rushing chart.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:54 am
Hi Doc,
Who do you like better this week in PPR? Kevin Walter or Eddie Royal?
October 14th, 2009 at 7:57 am
@Vargo: i just feel like you are selling off slaton awfully low. jacobs will probably come around, but he still has more of a time share issue than slaton. plus jacobs isn’t the healthiest guy in the NFL. mason is probably better and more consistent than hester (especially in ppr), but i’d hope neither guy would be anything more than a WR3 (mason) or WR4 (hester), and you have essentially no upside with mason.
i guess i probably wouldn’t do the deal, maybe slaton for jacobs/mason if you are in dire need of a WR.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:59 am
@CKR: Whoops. Youre right. I’ll get that fixed as soon as I can.
October 14th, 2009 at 8:20 am
Anyone think I should drop Devin Hester for Donnie Avery? Drop Fargas for Fast Willie?
October 14th, 2009 at 8:27 am
12 teams, H2H
My RBs are Peterson, McFadden, Donald Brown, Michael Bush, Jerome Harrison
My WRs are White, Wayne, Driver, Hester, Gonzalez
Who would you drop to pick up Maclin (if any)?
October 14th, 2009 at 8:35 am
I have Knowshon starting, but need to pick 2 of the following to start as well:
Sammy Morris, Fred Jackson, Derrick Ward, LeSean McCoy
who should it be?
October 14th, 2009 at 8:39 am
@Vince: hester
October 14th, 2009 at 8:47 am
Who would you rather give up to get Anthony Gonzalez? Leon Washington or Beanie Wells? The league is .5 ppr. My other backs are LT, P. Thomas, & Benson.
I’ve got a feeling that when A. Gonzo comes back and gets his timing down again, him and Peyton are going to be legit…
October 14th, 2009 at 9:15 am
I have an offer on the table. i give up Andre Johnson, Ronnie Brown, and derrick mason. i get Calvin Johnson, Wes welker, and Ray Rice. Should I do it? 0.75/reception
@Chris: Royal
@trevor: I wouldn’t.
@Drew: I’m a little worried about his lack of practice. But if you are set on it I’d probably go Beanie.
@Calogero: McCoy and Ward
@Vince: I’d hold.
@mgeoffriau: Seems like a lateral move, but Avery probably hs more upside in the long run. FWP has more possibilities just because of his team, but who knows how that toe will hold him back.
October 14th, 2009 at 10:39 am
@trevor: tough to do without knowing the extent of johnson’s injury. i’d hold.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Tough call to make in my PPR, Return-Yardage League:
Chris Johnson (vs. NE’s decent rush defense)
Rashard Mendenhall (vs. Cleveland’s atrocious rush defense)
Darren Sproles (vs. Denver’s solid rush defense)
Return yards are worth just as much as rushing/receiving yards, and Sproles is likely to catch a few passes as well, so I’m leaning towards starting him. But I’m having a hard time deciding between Mendenhall’s matchup and Johnson’s talent. CJ’s recent performance hasn’t been too great, and NE’s defense is just about on par with JAC’s and IND’s. And Sproles is capable of giving me points even if he does nothing offensively, like when he earned 12 points in the game against Pittsburgh.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:36 am
@Doc:
Would you rather have D. Avery over A. Gonzo? I’m in desperate need of another receiver and I’m looking to acquire one for either Beanie or Leon.
My current WRs are: Megatron, TO, Roy E, Royal, C. Henry (.5/rec)
I really dont have faith in any of those guys! Who wudda thought that at the beginning of the year?!?!
October 14th, 2009 at 11:37 am
@Dingo: I think I confused myself with that post. Bottom line: I’m leaning toward starting Sproles and am having a hard time deciding between Johnson and Mendenhall. Thoughts?
October 14th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Doc,
If I understand the chart correctly, for RBs, to complement Forte @ ATL, I’d rather start CJ @ NE over Rice @ MIN. Am I tracking correctly?
In short, the further down the chart a team falls in the “TEAM” column, the more I want to start someone against them, correct?
October 14th, 2009 at 11:48 am
@Doc: This is a helpful sheet. Thanks. Not only for this week, but for making trades for players facing crapping opposing defenses in the playoffs.
On that note, should i try to trade my Steve Smith (NYG) for Calvin Johnson? Non-ppr league.
October 14th, 2009 at 11:48 am
Based on this chart would you start Hasselbeck over Brees this week?
October 14th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
@Doc: Am offered boldin and slaton for my westbrook and braylon edwards…..i think im selling off 2 guys on the high and getting buy low guys in slaton and boldin
10 teams, no flex, start 2rb, 3 WRs…what are your thoughts
thanks
@Drew:For the next two weeks I’d rather have Avery, but it fyou are trading I’d rather have Gonzo long term.
@Christopher: Yes, but of course it’s not that cut and dry every time.
@Dad: I would.
@Dingo: CJ
@GTS: Ugh, This question is going to come up a lot. Hass has a great matchup at home, but brees has had two poor games and a bye week to get him up for this game. I’d stick with Brees, but it is close.
October 14th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Have been offered boldin and slaton for my westbrook and braylon edwards…..i think im selling off 2 guys on the high and getting buy low guys in slaton and boldin
10 teams, no flex, start 2rb, 3 WRs…what are your thoughts
thanks
@matthole: I like the trade.
October 14th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
@Doc: thanks, you like it bc you think they are both buy lows?
October 14th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
Got Edwards and Campbell as QBs (blech). Orton is out there – better off with him?
@Steve: I’d drop Edwards for Orton.
October 14th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
@Vargo: that is a horrible trade
@ThePoonTycoon: I picked up JAX D/ST for this week, that is just too juicy of a matchup. Plus I think Denver is going to suffer their first loss this week, just a hunch.
October 14th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
@mgeoffriau: would you pull trigger on sending braylon edwards and westbrook for boldin and slaton, and if so, why….thanks
October 14th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
Are you guys doing fantasy basketball this year by any chance?? You guys definitely should!
@matthole: I would take that deal. Westbrook is a bigger injury risk than Slaton, and even when healthy, the Eagles are protecting him by giving McCoy 5-8 carries a game. Braylon looked better on Monday night, but I’d rather bank on Boldin’s reliability than on Braylon coming close to his 16 TD form in a new (albeit familiar) system with a rookie QB. Sanchez may have a very successful year in the NFL and still not throw more than 16-18 TD’s total (see 2008 Matt Ryan).
October 14th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
@mgeoffriau: thanks!
October 14th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
@mgeoffriau: Thanks. Also – I’ve been offered Mark Sanchez for Driver. My other WRs are Crayton, Holt, Royal and Ant Gonzalez. What do you think?
@Steve: I wouldn’t bother…Sanchez is the opposite of Jason Campbell (who is a bad real life QB, but decent in fantasy scoring) — and kind of like Matt Ryan last year. Great young real life QB, but not a bonafide fantasy QB. I’d start Orton over him most weeks.
October 14th, 2009 at 2:19 pm
I got offered his Desean Jackson, Steve Breaston, and Vernon Davis for my Cedric Benson (I would actually drop Davis because I have no room). .5 per reception. He also has Reggie Wayne I could shoot for.
My team (12 team league)
RBs- Deangelo, Bradshaw, Benson, Sproles, Leon Washington, J. Jones, Choice
WRs- Calvin Johnson, T.J. Houshmanzadah, Eddie Royal
Also, does anybody know of a website that ranks players for the rest of the season? I only can find weekly rankings. Thank you
October 14th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
@Doc: Folk is on a bye so I need a sub kicker. I’m dropping Crayton for…Reed, Crosby or Scobee?
@chisox: I’m not sure I’d sell Benson for WR pieces that, realistically, will only compete for the starting job with your current WR’s. I’m assuming this is a 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 flex format. Benson’s value should be high enough to get a legit #1 WR in return. Wayne would be better.
October 14th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
@chisox: i don’t like that deal. if anything i’d want wayne straight up for benson, but looking at your team, i think you should keep benson. so long as johnson’s injury doesn’t drag on you’ll be fine at WR now that hass is back throwing to housh.
October 14th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Yes, we start 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and a flex (RB/WR). I saw the Doc was high on Desean, and being a Bears fan I don’t like the Cedric Benson. The other team is one of the better teams in the league, so I’ll just be patient for now. Thanks a lot guys.
October 14th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Hasselbeck over Rivers this week?
October 14th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
I’ve got two banged up WRs: Calvin Johnson & Jerricho Cotchery.
That leaves me with Santonio Holmes, Mike Sims-Walker, and Nate Washington in a 3WR league. I’m afraid Washington, and maybe Holmes, won’t do much, so which RB would you drop to pick up a matchup WR for this week (maybe Jermichael Finley–TEs play as WRs in the league):
RB – Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC)
RB – Ray Rice (BAL)
BN – Darren McFadden (OAK)
BN – Jerious Norwood (ATL)
BN – Beanie Wells (ARI)
BN – Glen Coffee (SF)
The other option is to drop Palmer, my backup QB, since Rodgers is past his bye.
October 14th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
@Doc: Thanks !
October 14th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
@Doc: @mgeoffriau: should i trade my westbrook for barber? ppr=.5,i dont need either this week
@Nick: Crosby
@adamh: I would
@hacienda: Norwood
@AL KOHOLIC: I like Barber between the 2
October 14th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
I was just offered C Johnson and Eddie Royal for Ryan Grant and Ricky Williams. At first I thought it was a no brainer, but Ricky’s looked really really good. Thoughts?
@MarkM: which CJ?
October 14th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
Chris. RB Tennessee.
@MarkM: IF we’re talking Chris Johnson, and IF Ricky isn’t your 2nd RB, it’s a great deal for you. If it’s Calvin Johnson, trading 2 RB’s for 2 WR’s is rarely a good idea. If Ricky is your 2nd RB, you are hurting your overall depth.
October 14th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
14 team I have AP, Forte, Grant, Ricky and Choice at RB. Driver, Lee Evans, Bobby Wade, Jericho Cotchery, and Davone Bees at WR.
@MarkM: Accept it before it’s withdrawn, and also tell me how you got AP and Forte on the same team.
October 14th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
@mgeoffriau: I traded Boldin and Cadillac after week 2 for him. The owner of that team is traditionally impatient, so I hit him up.
@MarkM: Textbook. If you have AP, Forte, and Chris Johnson and a half decent QB and WR core in a 14 team league, you should do very well. Nice work!
October 14th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
Doc -
Great article…based on the #’s, would you recommend starting Favre vs. BAL or Portis vs. KC. in a PPR league at the flex position?
@Sean: You can start QB’s at your flex position? Are they scored at 4 or 6 pts per TD? My first reaction is Portis, but it’s hard to judge between a QB and RB.
October 14th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Need help with a trade.
I have a nice group of RB – Turner, Westbrook, Mendenhall, Rice.
WR – A. Johnson, Williams , Percy Harvin, Garcon
TE – Shiancoe
I was just offered Calvin Johnson and Owen Daniels for Turner.
Do you take it?
October 15th, 2009 at 5:28 pm
Non-PPR (but return yds = 1pt/20 yds) 12-team standard league. Which WR do I start at W/T:
Nicks @ NO
Caldwell v. HOU
Jacoby Jones @ CIN
The only WW fodder out there is Northcutt v. GB.
@JL: They are being too secretive on CJ’s injury, but I’d still be weary of giving Turner up with two young RB’s and an injury waiting to happen in Westy.
@Christopher: Nicks/Caldwell
October 16th, 2009 at 5:15 pm
@ mgeoffriau
Its 4 points for a passing TD and 6 for a rushing TD….u still think I should go with Portis?