Statistical Strategery
October 28, 2009
Category: 2009 Fantasy Football
So this week’s strategery has a new format to completely disorient and befuddle you! The first change is that I have added DVOA, which is a system developed by Football Outsiders to measure the true value of a defense. I like it to help offset the fantasy football points allowed to QBs/RBs which is easily skewed. As a whole I believe these four statistics; yards allowed per game, fantasy points allowed, yards given up per attempt, and DVOA help average these defenses into a ranking I feel comfortable with. The good thing with this chart is you can see each individual statistic and ranking if you like one more than another.
I have also changed it so the top of the chart has the worst defenses and the bottom the best. So as you can see in the first row of the passing defensive chart Tennessee ranks 32nd in yards per game, 32nd in fantasy points, and so on and on. And then you take a look at their opponent, Jacksonville, and you can feel pretty good about playing Sims-Walker and Garrard. So the teams on the far left column are the defenses and then just right of them are the offenses with your fantasy players hidden in there somewhere.
Take a look and if you have any questions be sure to ask!
Passing Defenses:
Rushing Defenses:
October 28th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Is Fred Jackson droppable at this point? Was thinking of cutting him loose for Fargas or D. Ward.
October 28th, 2009 at 1:26 pm
So Holt’s a pretty good play this week too? Better than Royal?
@stumanji: Yeah, if guys like Fargas and Ward are available, then Freddy Jax is droppable. He may have value again down the road — people wouldn’t be so down on him if he hadn’t started for 4 games.
@Steve: Yeah, I like Holt a lot this week (see tomorrow’s article). I’d say Holt and Royal are pretty close in value over the whole season, but Royal’s looks have been very inconsistent week to week — I’d go with Holt.
@mgeoffriau: Err, started 3 games I mean. Anyway, Marshawn Lynch owners should be watching this closely — Jackson remains an important handcuff for Lynch, and he’s getting dropped in a lot of leagues.
October 28th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
got offered Megatron for Kevin Smith and Nicks- ppr league
Here is how my team looks now
QB’s-Warner, Garrard
Rb’s- Kevin Smith, Benson, Moreno, Mcfadden, Lewis
Wr’s- Fitz, Moss, Nicks, Massaquoia, Moore
Te’s- Celek, Olsen
What do u guys think? Im leaning torwards doing it
October 28th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
Which side the rest of the way (0.5ppr)?
Jacobs & Jennings
or
Fitzgerald & Moreno
October 28th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Need a bye week replacement for Tom Brady.
Who would you go with:
Garrard vs. Tennessee Secondary
Britt Farve vs. Green Bay (in Green Bay)
Alex Smith vs. Indy
October 28th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Trade question: I’ve been offered Westbrook and Maroney for Vincent Jackson.
This is my team at the moment. We play 2 WRs, 2 RBs, and a Flex. I’m 3-4 at the moment, and I’ve suffered some injuries, so I’m hurting for RBs. Here’s the question: Maroney isn’t worth much, so is Westbrook, with question marks and all, worth sacrificing my top WR1?
QB: Brady, Sanchez
RB: Staton, Sproles, Forsett, Snelling
WR: V. Jackson, Bowe, Berrian, Maclin, Henderson, Garcon, J. Jones
TE: Daniels
K: Crosby
DEF: Jets
October 28th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
@hacienda: er, that’s Slaton and James Jones on my roster…
@Byron: I don’t like it for you. I like CJ, but I don’t think you are deep enough at RB to give up Smith.
@Commish Cauda (formerly Mike): I like the Fitz side.
@TSchritt: Tough, who knows what Favre will do. He’s got a lot of upside, but I don’t see a huge game. I like Garrard.
October 28th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Is Jerome Harrison still worth keeping around over a Larry Johnson or Julius Jones (I’m looking to pick up Greene or Charles through waivers). I don’t need to help right away just would like to have some insurance come playoff time.
October 29th, 2009 at 11:12 am
In a 2 QB league, I have the options of starting Jake Delhomme, Vince Young, Jamarcus, or Derek Anderson… I have to go with Young vs. Jac, right? Esp. w/ throwing td’s worth 4 and rushing worth 6…
@chisox: I like Greene over LJ.
@Jo: Yeah, VY is a huge risk, but you will already be taking a risk with that group. I’d go for it.
October 29th, 2009 at 11:31 am
One more question… I need to pick up a backup if Andre Johnson is unable to play on sunday. Who do you like out of: Devone Bess, Pat Crayton, Jeremy Maclin, Justin Gage