Statistical Strategery, Week 9
November 05, 2009
Category: 2009 Fantasy Football
The top of the chart has the worst defenses and the bottom the best. So as you can see in the first row of the passing defensive chart Tennessee and Detroit rank worst in our total. And then you take a look at their opponents, Seattle and San Francisco (both at home by the way), and you can feel pretty good about playing Crabtree and Burleson and their bretheren. So the teams on the far left column are the defenses and then just right of them are the offenses with your fantasy players hidden in there somewhere.
Take a look and if you have any questions be sure to ask!
Passing Defenses:
Rushing Defenses:
November 5th, 2009 at 11:14 am
But where is the chart for worst kicking defenses? I’m in a heck of a pickle. Lindell has a bye and I’m torn regarding his replacement. Dan Carpenter? Jason Elam? Seems like Danny C has a tougher road what with the Pats defense. I need statistical analysis. Help me football.razzball kenobi, you’re my only hope!
Doc Reply:
November 5th, 2009 at 11:32 am
Here is a good source for playing the matchup game for kickers http://fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?Season=2009&GameWeek=Season&PosID=80&Side=Allowed
November 5th, 2009 at 11:34 am
Need help. In first place but play some tough teams in next couple weeks. Team is
Palmer, Campbell, Young
MJD, Rice, Mendy, S.Morris, Lewis
Colston, Austin, Jennings, Ocho, Hicks
Heap, Cooley
Tynes
GB
We play 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, ETC
Losing Cooley hurts and I offered Jennings for Gates, got back Gates for Austin. I don’t know if I should keep the WR depth and roll with average TE’s or let Austin go and roll with Jennings and have only Nicks as a backup + WW fodder. Austin has almost singehandedly won two games for me this year. She also has Vernon Davis but lacks WR’s which is why I targeted her for a trade. I was ok giving up Jennings but Austin? What do you guys think? I’m feeling not a chance as I write this.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:43 am
Right now it looks like the passing chart got published twice. Those two charts are the same. Just wanted to point that out so the accurate rushing D chart could get placed up there ot help people judge the matchups.
Thanks for the great work on these each week.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Please help…10 team, 2 QB league, .5 ppr, 2 rbs, 3 wrs, no flex.
Thinking about trading Hasselbeck, Braylon, Ronnie Brown and Watson for Randy Moss, Witten and 1 of Benson or Thomas Jones.
QB is by far the most valuable position in our league, and my replacements for Hasselbeck are Alex Smith and Vince Young.
I think I need to make the deal, but who would you want between Benson or Thomas Jones?
I am currently tied for 4th (6 teams make playoffs) at 4-4, with 5th most points out of 10 teams.
@J Rich: Whoops, fixed! Thanks!
November 5th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Sorry if this is a dup… PPR league: Forte, Barber, or Moats? Whch two do you start. Is Moats the real deal or a hit hit wonder?
November 5th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Do I give Grant for Jennings and McCoy?
November 5th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
What do you think about dumping forte for ryan grant? I think grants value could jump with Tauscher and Clifton coming back in the line-up…
@Greg: Moats is going to get more carries, but Slaton should be the guy if he can hold onto the ball. But that’s the problem! I’d sit him.
@unstopabull: I like Gates a lot and that is a pretty fair trade. And Ocho is consistent. And Jennings looks like he’ll finish strong. I’d do it.
@Harley: I don’t like running out there with Smith and Young as your only options. If you are set on it, I like Benson’s schedule.
@Jon: I like the trade.
@Jo: I feel they are pretty even at this point. I think I like grant’s schedule more.
November 5th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Ugh. Jacobs was just traded for Winslow straight up in my league. This after I made an offer of Heath Miller, Mendenhall and Charles for Jacobs and Sproles. I felt like I was overpaying, but really wanted those 2. Pretty frustrated. Vent over…
@Ian: That’s horribly lame. I wouldn’t be happy either.
Alright, I’ve been tossing this idea around in my head a couple years but never actually tried it. All of my roster is pretty locked in for this week except for RB2….and it’s up to either Derrick Ward or Maurice Morris (I know, slim pickings….S-Jax, Lynch, and Fargas on bye weeks). I’ve gone back and forth a couple times, and short of hearing that Kevin Smith is out for Sunday, I feel like they are pretty even…I’m guessing something like 10 carries for 45ish yards, maybe toss in 10-15 yards receiving.
So here’s my idea: I let my opponent pick the player. If I lose, this will seem like a ridiculous idea, but IF the player he chooses does well and ESPECIALLY IF that player provides the winning margin….how badass would that be?
With my bye week problem I feel ok taking a loss this week anyway — I knew it would be long shot.
Worth doing it for the drama (and the never-ending smack talk if I win), or am I just being an idiot?
@mgeoffriau: Hah! I say go for it!
November 5th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
@Doc
I have Brady at my QB1 position…Smith and Young would be my options at QB2 position. Here are the two versions of my line-up pre and post trade…I think I have to do it:
Brady Brady
Hasselbeck A. Smith/VY
MJD MJD
Ronnie Brown Benson or Thomas Jones (pick one)
Jennings Jennings
Braylon Randy Moss
Crabtree/Maclin Crabtree/Maclin
Watson Witten
Have to do it right?
And you are leaning towards Benson solely b/c of schedule? It looks like Thomas Jones’ schedule is just as tasty…
November 5th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
@Doc: While those rankings attempt to crack half the nut, the heart of the matter is the meat in the shell. That is, the rank of a defense means nothing if the opposing kicker is the metaphoric one-legged man that just lost the ass-kicking contest. To boot, the rest of a team’s offense directly ties into the quality of the kicker as well. A kicker on a struggling offense is likely to get more cracks at field goals, but does this offset the loss in PATs coupled with the overall ineffectiveness and the occasional exceptional mediocrity? At the intersection of smashmouth defense and pisspoor offense, where do we find the Josh Browns of the world?
@pork burn: if you try to figure out kickers your head is going to hurt and you’ll get no where.
@p0rk burn: Some defenses are tougher near the end zone, ie, the meat zone. And you pair that up with offenses that have trouble near the so called “meat zone” you will have your 2 legged kicker in a world of one-legged ones!
@Doc: I love the meat zone. Put a ring of cheese around it and JACKPOT!
November 5th, 2009 at 1:18 pm
Your matchup chart suggests Bradshaw may be a better start than K. Smith. Would you agree?
Charles is still available in my league. As a former Johnson owner who got burned several weeks, I’m not sold on the KC O-line to be good enough though. Perhaps Charles is the best of these three though (?).
Tx
November 5th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
In terms of total projected fantasy points for a standard yahoo non ppr league, how would you rank these guys? Torry Holt, Malcom Floyd, LeSean McCoy.
I have a flex and a wr slot open. At the moment, I’m leaning towards Holt and Floyd, especially since McCoy seems to be sick and Westbrook is coming back. I’m also scared of McCoy’s Dallas matchup.
Thanks!
November 5th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
i was offered “any two of T. Owens, R. Williams and J. Knox for Ward”
i have ward
thoughts gentlemen?
@tenken: I agree, as long as Westbrook plays McCoy won’t really be much of an option.
@Jim Parkey: I’d stick with Smith because he should get the bulk of the carries. I’d put Charles in between the 2.
@jesse: I wouldn’t make the trade.
November 5th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Great point about fantasy football being poker while baseball is like chess. I’ve being comparing football to poker for a while now, as my biggest pet peeve is when people want to do something just because the NFL does it. I tell them it’s more like poker than regular football, all we should take from the NFL is the stats. Do you guys feel the same?
I’ve won three baseball championships and only one football, yet I’ve played in more football leagues. I also have always liked football a lot better than baseball. The worst is when you get people who think that fantasy football performance is directly correlated to football knowledge. Oh well, that’s what’s great about it.
November 5th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Burleson or Bowe ?(no ppr) Leaning towards Bowe, just thought I’d check your vector victor.
@vinko: Yeah, both have great matchups, but I’m leaning Bowe as well.
November 5th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
A couple questions:
1. Based on the article about Qb’s and future matchups, would you recommend trading Matt Ryan for Hasselback? I believe I can do this easily.
2. Pick two this week in a .5 ppr: Moats, Maroney, or B Marshall?
3. Matt Ryan or Eli this week?
4. In a PPR, pick two of Housh, Santana Moss, NYG Steve Smith, Austin
Thanks!
@Sos: I’m worried about Hasselbeck staying whole or I would say go for it. Ryan should be able to stay healthy, but be average with his matchups. I like Carson Palmer’s schedule. Maybe you could make that trade?
Moats is a wildcard, but I think he’ll get some work. Moats and Marshall.
Ryan, I’m a little worried about Eli’s foot.
Austin/Housh
November 5th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
No-brainer to start Alex Smith ahead of Orton this week?
And Julius J or Mike Thomas for the flex?
@Steve: Not a no-brainer, but the matchup is too good. Go with Smith. I like JJ for your flex.
November 7th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
do i play Maclin vs dallas or Crabtree vs the tuxedos?
@the robbie: I like both, but going with Crabtree.