Return of the Stats Machine

A long time ago (about a year) in a galaxy (Razzball) far, far way…

Guess who’s back, back again. The Stats Machine’s back, tell a friend. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Guess who’s back. Unlike most sequels that barely measure up to the original, the first two Godfather movies excluded, the second coming of the Stats Machine looks to build on a successful model, expanding and even deepening an already superb, numbers-driven effort. For those whom are unaware of, or need a refresher on the origin of the Stats Machine (TSM), you can find that here.

Take me on in the Razzball Commenter Leagues here!

The goal of TSM was to look beyond the points. To examine the stats that contribute to the stats that result in points. And for the most part, it did just that. But as I looked at the algorithm within, I realized that there was a variable, a very important variable, that was unaccounted for. Defense. The strength of the opposing defense to be more precise. In the first iteration of TSM if Player A rushed for 100 yards against Seattle’s defense and Player B rushed for 100 yards against the much weaker Jacksonville defense, both players were rewarded equally. That is a flaw. Flaws must be removed from the system.

The following changes have been implemented. The opposing defense is now factored into the equation. Each week TSM will use year-to-date defensive rankings in the following three key categories to adjust each offensive player’s performance. Those categories are against the rush, against the pass, and against receiving. Running backs will be adjusted based on the strength of how well the defense they faced that week was at stopping the rush. Wide receivers and tight ends will be compared against the opposing defense’s ability to shut down pass catcher.

Here’s a simple example. If Matt Forte rushes for 100 yards against the top defense against the rush, he will receive 10 points for that effort. If during the same week LeSean McCoy rushes for 100 yards against the defense that gives up the most rushing yards in the league, he will only get 5 points. Everything else is in between. McCoy would need to rush for 200 yards that week to equal Forte’s 10-point effort. Of course, rushing yards are not the only factor in calculating a player’s final score.

But that’s not all Version 2.0 of The Stats Machine has been retrofitted with. This year TSM will also include quarterback analysis. I mean, why not? And following suit, quarterback scores will be adjusted based on the opposing team’s defensive ability against the pass. TSM now also includes rankings/calculations for both PPR and standard scoring for running backs, wide receivers and tight ends. And lastly, the existing formulas for PPR have been enhanced. If that’s not enough of an upgrade, then perhaps you need to lower your expectations.

In the meantime, I have taken last season’s stats and fed them into the new and improved Stats Machine to see how the defensive adjustments would shake out. However, there is one key difference in this exercise that I need to point out. When I did this I used end-of-season defensive rankings to make my adjustments. What that means is if Detroit finished the season as the best defense against the run I used that ranking against running backs for every week of the season. This is not precise because in week 2 they might have been the 10th ranked rush defense. It was just too much work for me to go back and figure out all of the defensive ranking for all 17 weeks. This will be done for the 2015 season, however, since it will be calculated each week individually.

With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s take a look at what TSM had to say about last season. Please note that TSM will also still include the non defense adjusted scores for each player (SPG).

Quarterbacks

According to The Stats Machine Peyton Manning was the top QB in 2014 with a per game score of 88.68. After Manning comes Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady. That sounds about right to me. Who comes next might come as a bit of a surprise. That would be Ryan Tannehill. It surprised me. After Tannehill comes Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees. Drew Brees ranked 9th??? Yep. But remember, TSM does more than just look for the best fantasy player. However I’d like to point out that the gap between Rodgers (82.938) and Russell Wilson (79.5) is very close.

As for TSM’s pick for the worst performing QB (minimum 13 games), that honor is given to Brian Hoyer (49.643). 13 interceptions, 12 touchdowns. Good luck this season Texans. Perhaps Glass Joe, I mean Geno Smith, taking one on the chin wasn’t such a bad thing for the Jets. TSM had Smith (54.357) as the next worst QB. However Ryan Fitzpatrick (57.417) isn’t much higher up on the list.

Don’t underestimate the value of Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger.

Table column header explanations:

“Score” is a player’s base score
“Adjusted” is a player’s defense adjusted score
“ASPG” is a player’s adjusted score per game
“SPG” is a player’s non-adjusted score per game

Running Backs

The top ranked running back in PPR formats is none other than Matt Forte (43). With 102 receptions, Forte is a force to be reckoned with. If only he had a few more rushing touchdowns. This is a good example of the effect the new defensive element has on TSM. Before factoring in the defense, Le’Veon Bell (40.375) had the higher score. Afterwards, Forte is the leader.

How about standard scoring? The top ranked RB was DeMarco Murray (36.375). Given his 1845 yards rushing and 13 TDs, this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. After Murray is Bell (32.688) and Marshawn Lynch (32.188). PPR leader Forte is ranked 4th (31.875)

The lowest scoring RB in PPR with at least 100 carries was Anthony “Boobie” Dixon (8.875). What a boob! If we move to a minimum of 150 carries the shame is placed on Alfred Blue (12.563). The results are the same in standard scoring.

TSM likes both Andre Ellington and Mark Ingram. And to the surprise of many, TSM rates Giovani Bernard’s over Jeremy Hill.

Wide Receivers

Despite Antonio Brown having the highest non-adjusted score, once defense is factored in, TSM says that Demaryius Thomas is the top wide receiver in PPR formats. Then Brown, Odell Beckham, Emmanuel Sanders and Jordy Nelson round out the top five. As for standard scoring, the top five remain the same, except Beckham moves into the two spot, swapping places with Brown.

Despite only scoring 222 points, Julian Edelman comes in at the 6 spot in PPR formats.

Tight Ends

No matter how you slice and dice it, Rob Gronkowski comes out on top in TSM’s analysis of tight ends. And I’ll tell you one thing, The Stats Machine sure does love tight ends. That include Martellus Bennett.

Here is a link to the full spreadsheet stats: The Stats Machine Data.

Stats Machine logging off…

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