This will probably be the last direct buy low, sell high, avoid article you’ll see for the rest of the season because…well, there’s only been one game, people. What the heck? I can’t divine what will happen on Sunday and tell you what to do about it. If I had, you would’ve seen Kevin Ogletree in my top ten for Wide Receivers for week 1 and we all know that didn’t happen, like, anywhere on the internet from a fantasy football expert with integrity. Not claiming we have integrity here, per se, as our previous articles would show but we do know that Kevin is going to get picked up everywhere this week. In fact, you’re not even going to read this article, you’re just going to ask me if you should drop some player for him in the comments. It’s ok, I’m an American; I don’t expect you to read anymore unless it’s a tweet where we substitute ‘you’ with ’u’ and ‘humanitarian of the year’ with ‘Kim Kardashian’. Instead of talking about Ogletree, let’s talk about how frustrated Dez Bryant owners were on Wednesday. Alright, his line was fine – 4 recs and 85 yards - but people were expecting those Kevin stats and redzone targets. It’s week one and if comments in the forums and on here tell me anything, it’s that people are ready to make a move before a full week has even played out. I’m not saying this as a full Dez lover but more as seeing you could have a buy-low window of opportunity. I’d try and seize the prize for a 6 month subscription to Vibe magazine and a box of chiclets if I could. Should you really be able to in a league of non-mouth breathers? No. But should you take advantage if you can? In a french word: oui.
BUY
Victor Cruz – Loudon gave you the lowdown this might be a bad game for Cruz earlier in the week and it lived up to the unhype but realize this: he led his team in target percentage for the week at 34.4%. That’s only 0.3% behind Ogletree’s targets! That last sentence was meant to be funny in a sad sort of way and is in no way condoning you picking him up. But as we’ve covered, you haven’t read this so I’ll tell you that in the comments.
SELL
Martellus Bennett - If for some reason you had him for this game, congrats! Now get him the heck outta here! His end line was nice for a TE with those 4 receptions for 40 yards and a TD. He also T-Rex’ed a pass on the sideline that should’ve been caught. I wasn’t a fan before the season and still ain’t.
DeMarco Murray - Yeah, I’m kinda shocked to be saying this too. I watched the game and thought he did great but three things worry me here. One, he is currently not a part of the passing game. Felix Jones came in as the 3rd down passing back. I don’t know if that’ll hold all season but it’s reason to be worried because two, Dallas threw for all three of their touchdowns. You’d like your RB1 to get a few more touchdown chances, wouldn’t ya? My third and final worry is his running style. The dude is a beast. He ran like Marion Barber only he actually gained yardage when he did. He’s a bruiser back that might get bruised in return. It’s plays like the second one of this video that make me go ‘does he wanna score a touchdown or just hurt somebody? And will he hurt himself while he was at it? And how much longer am I gonna keep writing in quotation marks?’ Trust me, the real football fan in me says go get’um, the fantasy football fan in me says you’ll break your head doing that every play. Don’t sell him for a box of day old Krispy Kremes but if one of the big RBs has a bad day this Sunday, don’t hesitate to take advantage either.
HOLD
Jason Witten - Now I will preface this with saying I almost put him as a sell but want to see what week 2 holds. If he’s too hurt to perform but keeps playing, he’s going to be worthless this season. If he misses a few games to start the year, you might be better off. Since I don’t know what Dallas’ plan is with him at this time, I’m going to not go to red alert and keep it in the yellow for now. I just really hope this isn’t a season long issue. And yes, I firmly believe if he were healthy you wouldn’t be asking me about Ogletree in the comments.
David Wilson - Hey, he was on your bench for the first game anyway, right? Right?!? Ok it was a 16 team league with 5 flex spots and you played him so yeah, that kinda hurt. Just remember, Tom Hanks only said there was no crying in baseball. Football is still wide open for manly tears, right? Right?!? Well whatever, if you bought him in the draft it wasn’t for one game. And before you ask it, the answer is no; you’re not dropping him for Ogletree.
@Sky Haha I got a double trade going on and I was wondering what you thought?
2 QB league with 2 WR spots, 2 RB spots, 1 W/T, 1 W/RB, and 1 W/Rb/T spots.
QBs: A.Rodgers, M.Ryan, P.Rivers
RBs: Willis Mcgahee, AP, Michael Bush, Isaiah Pead
WR: Julio, Colston, Torrey Smith, Garcon, Meachem, L.Moore, Blackmon, Baldwin
I know you said to sell Murray but I’m thinking of buying him.
First Trade: Julio Jones for D.Murray (Trade is pretty much set, I just need to accept)
Second Trade: Murray + Rivers (hopefully) or M.Ryan for S.Jackson + Larry Fitzgerald. (70% chance? still in the works)
I think even if I was able to do only the first trade, it would benefit my team?
What do you think?
Depends on how you feel about Murray for the rest of the year. But turning Julio/Rivers into Steven Jackson and Fitz might work out better for you.
@Sky, So basically you’re not a fan of the first trade but you like the possible 2nd trade. Gotcha.
Drop Dwayne Harris for ogletree?
Was offered Vick and b Lloyd for Brees and Tebow in a 2 qb league (I’m weak at WR)
Hard to say on the second trade without knowing your team. First move is fine though.
I have Run-DMC at RB1 and Marshawn Lynch at RB2. I plan to play Lynch if he goes but my other options are Cedric Benson or Issac Redman, both of whom I could use since they are in late games also. Right now, I’m leaning toward Redman but Benson is healthy – which one would you use and/or would you pick one over Lynch even if he plays?
I’d lean Benson if Lynch is a no-go.
.5 ppr league, who would you start in a flex, ced benson or p garcon, all other points are equal rc/yds=rush/yds points wise
I’d prefer Garcon there.
As a PPR Murray owner, I was already getting worried about the lack of passing role too, but hadn’t considered the bowling ball problem. How are you seeing Murray’s ROS value compared to Mathews, Lynch, Richardson and Martin? The first two scare me for their current injuries, the last two because they are rookies who tend to get hurt more and have less of a track record. Who would you trade straight up at this point?
At this point out of that bunch? Actually no one. I don’t think Murray goes down week 2 but his running style isn’t meant for 20 carries a game for 16 games. Maybe ride the wave a bit longer and see if Matthews or Lynch heal up here soon. Murray’s still good but it gave me cause for concern the way he played…but man was it fun to watch.
With the news that Jaquizz Rodgers will split carries with Turner and return kicks, is he more valuable than Shonne Greene at RB2 in a 12 team, 1pt PPR, with return yards?
Is he more valuable than Crabtree in flex?
Tup*2
Eh that was supposed to be yup
Flex position…. PPR league. Steven Ridley or Reggie Wayne?
I have Andy Luck starting so I’m torn here. I’m lean towards Ridley in case Luck bleeps the bed. But Chicago’s pass d is a bit suspect w. a bum knee on Urlacher so maybe I should got Wayne?
PPR aside Ridley should be good for a TD and some yardage. I’d lean Ridley
@Sky, thanks for the quick response. I’m rolling w. Ridley. Lets just hope Belichick doesn’t get “creative” with the RBs like he has done in the past!
No prob, hope you have a great Sunday!
Which one RB do I start between Lynch, Turbin and Frank Gore? non-ppr. Thanks.
It’s either Lynch or Turbin depending on Marshawn’s health. I’m leaning Turbin right now.
12 team h2h league, yahoo standard + 0.5pt PPR..do i keep MJD on the bench? My current starters:
QB – Brees
RB – Donald Brown
RB – Deangelo Williams
WR – Dez Bryant
WR – Torrey Smith
WR – Desean Jackson
TE – Jarred Cook
Flex – Lance Moore
DEF – Seattle
K – Hanson
Bench: MJD, Royster, Little, Dwyer, Collie
You’re safer starting Moore.
drop mark ingram or dwyer for ogletree in 12 teamer non ppr? my wr are dez, torrey smith and reggie wayne with heyward bey on the bench. rbs are rice, r matthews, and d. martin.
Thanks
Nah, I’d hold
Sky,
I ended up starting Miles Austin at WR2 because I have an option to go Steve Smith or Marshawn Lynch for week 1 flex and their lingering injuries concern me. If Austin had a big game I was going to go more conservative and start lynch and if he was a bust I was going to start
smith as more of a high risk high reward play. With all that said do I stick with Lynch at flex due to Austin’s sucess on wednesday even with all the underlying back problems? My other flex otions are: Garcon, Donald Brown, Cedric Benson
Also what are your thoughts on Miles Austin’s value after week one? He looked very sluggish and I only counted about 10 routes that he actually ran the rest of the time he was in the slot running out routes and romo wasnt even giving him the time of day. Was his decent game a case of right place right time against a terrible Giant’s secondary or is the Miles from 2009 going to reemerge? Buy or Sell after week 1? Thanks
I’d lean Garcon
I like Austin. He’s still dealing with hamstring issues and yet made that catch for a TD. I think the Giants terrible secondary tried to make up for it by leaving Ogletree wide open and covering the main two targets, hoping Kevin wouldn’t perform. If you have Miles, you’re holding. I can’t say to buy because he scored a touchdown and won’t come cheap.
@Sky,
Just saw Steve Smith’s 2011 stats agains TB (1 REC 9 yrds) yikes!!!
So yea Garcon could be a great call lets just hope RGIII doesnt get the rookie jitters haha
I was hoping that Austin would have the game ogle..whater his name is had but Im holding Austin for sure, unless I get a great offer for a TE as I have no depth or even a certified starter at the position. Thanks
@Charles, Man, sorry for missing this one when you posted it. Didn’t even realize Smith had that game vs TB last year. Cam is going to be a rollercoaster ride this year, in my mind. People don’t realize he had a 2010 Vick rushing game and a 2011 Vick passing game. He’s gonna have to find a way to be more consistent so his WRs can follow suit.
Yeah, even if RGIII has those jitters, I really can’t see how he doesn’t provide for his owners this week. He should be playing from behind and free to fling it creating fantasy gold all around him.
I’m sure Dez owners wanted Oglestank’s line but would’ve settled for Austin’s. Good ‘ole one week of data to build on. Hope you didn’t spend your waiver on that Ogle guy!
@Sky,
Great call on Garcon. Thanks
@Chuck, ha, I’m not going to own the TD bomb but he’s going to be a good target for RGIII. Couple that with Saints giving up so much yardage last year, he was a fairly easy call.
Putting in the trade offer for Dez in a 12 team, 1pt PPR as I type… Seeing if Blackmon and Taiwan Jones (McFadden owner) get it done.
Flex question for you this week. Provided that Lynch sits or is severely limited, AP is gets in the 4-8 touch range, and MJD is the 3rd down back only, who do like between these 4 backups with upside best Week 1:
Turbin
Gerhart
Jennings
J. Rodgers
Also, what deep sleepers would you recommend over Ronnie Hillman?
Thanks so much!
Nice, good luck with the trade!
Gerhart, Turbin, Rodgers, Jennings in that order.
Not sure how to answer the last question: are you asking me if you’d drop any of the RBs you listed for Hillman? I wouldn’t.
Pick 4. 12 team standard scoring (looking to fill rb2, wr3, 2 r/w/t flex spots)
Kevin Smith
Reggie Bush
Ronnie Brown
Malcolm Floyd
Stevie Johnson
Thanks!
Smith/Bush/Brown/Floyd
Just saw Steve Smith’s 2011 stats agains TB (1 REC 9 yrds) yikes!!!
So yea Garcon could be a great call lets just hope RGIII doesnt get the rookie jitters haha
I was hoping that Austin would have the game ogle..whater his name is had but Im holding Austin for sure, unless I get a great offer for a TE as I have no depth or even a certified starter at the position. Thanks
No prob
I’ve been hearing a lot of doubt about Marshawn Lynch going into week one, but I see that you have him ranked pretty high in your weekly positional rankings. I’m a little worried that he won’t get an RB1 workload which in my league (ppr and pprush attempt) is death. Do I start Shonne Greene in his place, or will an injured Lynch still be more valuable than a healthy Greene?
Yeah, trying to call a week on a Wednesday (i.e. Tuesday night) sucks. I’d lean Greene right now even though I don’t want to.
i think you’re dead wrong on the bennett call. the giants do not give opportunities to people who they are suspect of … even with the dropped pass in the first, bennett saw action when the giants needed it most. he might not be a top TE now, but he will be.
i also have no idea why you would demote murray after this game … against the best d line in football … equipped with the worst o line in football … he still made waves due to his pure athletic ability. he joins the fantasy elite at RB this year.
you also missed on cruz. he benefited from being the unknown part of the NYG offense last year. wednesday night showed that he is going to have a hard time playing with expectations (and double coverage). Unless Hixon steps up and becomes a viable threat, Cruz will be a highly touted decoy this season.
So we can agree to disagree. We’ll see how the season pans out.
@melillo,
The G-Men are far from the best Rush D-Line in Football…all they do is pin their ears back and go after the QB…whether he has the ball or not.
@HotRod,
Agreed, if you take away the 48 yard run on a missed contain assignment by “the best d line in football” you would be looking at 20 carries for 83 yards a respectable 4 yards per carry but not amazingly impressive. Murray could have a great next few games due to upcoming defenses scheming around stopping the pass but over the long run. I don’t think we learned enough about murray from this single game to say sell or not but we did learn one thing and that’s a team with issues in the secondary is going to struggle spending all your cap assets on the front 4 is not an effective stategy if you can get to the QB. Don’t overvalue any cowboys offensive player until we see more from them
@Charles, i can sympathize with your apprehension, but I think Murray is a stud … Remember: The Cowboys lost their starting center early in the game. Under normal circumstances, they shouldn’t have been able to run the ball effectively.
if the giants D line isn’t the best run stop, they have to be in the top 5. When Murray lines up against the chumps of the NFC south this year he is going to post up huge numbers.
@melillo,
By NFC south chumps I guess you are referring to Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans? Good luck getting production out of a RB that’s not involved in the passing games when the cowboys play those teams
Bottom line I hope he finds the end zone for you a few times before he breaks down in week 4…I already let him go last week for Dez Bryant and Micheal Turner
12 team league, start 1 QB, 2 RB, no flex. I waited on QB, but scooped Tate as my RB4 as he dropped to the 10th rd. The Foster owner doesn’t have much RB depth, and I’m thinking of seeing if I can upgrade my QB situation.
Would an offer of Tate + Luck for Eli be fair for both sides given the below rosters? What about for Eli + M Bush? Or would you just hold Tate in my shoes?
Team A:
QB – Eli, Cutler
RB – Foster, Turner, M Bush, Hillman
Team B:
QB – Roethlisberger, Luck, Tebow
RB – Rice, Mathews, Ingram, Tate, Hunter, J Rodgers
Try for Bush/Eli; looks more like Arian Foster could be a no-go this weekend. If he doesn’t want Tate for that price, it’ll be his loss, not yours.
@Sky,
Still feel good about garçon over Steve smith even with the saints bounty suspensions waived?
You mean the team that was 3rd to last in defensive passing yards per game last year? Yeah, I’m fine with it if Steve Smith isn’t healthy to go :)
Stevie Johnson, heyward-bay, or mike Williams. Tbb as my wr2 in a 1headlock point ppr league? Thanks
DHB.
10 Team non PPR
Owen Daniels or Jared Cook (TE) for the long run?
Non-PPR, I’d give Cook a chance first.
Q1. Someone in my league just dropped Kyle Rudolph, Who should I drop to pick him up? I NEED to pick him up because my TE position is the weakest part. I am thinking to drop Alshon Jeffery, since he might not step right into the 2nd WR role in the Bears offense right away and will only emerge in mid season.
Q2. Should I pick up Ogletree? If so, who should I drop?
Q3. Who should I start at FLEX? I am starting Rice, Ridley, Jones, Lloyd.
12 Teams PPR League 1pt rec. 4pt TD pass
QB: Matt Ryan
RB: Ray Rice
RB: Ryan Mathews
RB: Steven Ridley
RB: Petyon Hillis
RB: C.J Spiller
RB: Kendall Hunter
WR: Julio Jones
WR: Brandon Lloyd
WR: Titus Young
WR: Brandon LeFall
WR: Alshon Jeffery
WR: Danny Amendola
TE: Greg Olsen
DST: Lions
K: Mike Nugent
1) drop Alston for him
2) no
3) Hillis
I’m in a league that scores pretty big pts for D/ST (25-35 for strong performances), which includes return TDs. I have the SF def, but am not thrilled about playing them week 1 against GB.
Which of the following would be your top substitute on the week?
MIN vs JAC
NO vs WAS
ARI vs SEA
MIN is projected (conservatively) for 16 on the week by ESPN, and NO/ARI are 11.
MIN
Skyski.. better brown RB flex?
Ronnie or Donald?
I’d lean Donald
@Sky, Thanks buddyyyy!
No prob, Preziiiiiiiiii!
Doug Martin or DeAngelo Williams
Martin
@Sky, you still say Martin with Stewart out?
@Chris, Probably pretty even now. I’d still say Martin in a PPR but there’s a chance DeAngelo is very useful today.
Pick one for FLEX: Helu, Kendall Wright, or Crabtree?
Thanks!
Wright
@sky not sure if you’re still answering q’s from this post but pick one for flex: Beanie, Helu or Alfred Morris. .5 PPR. Thanks in advance!
Oh I am, don’t you worry. Man, you are just mean…two redskins backs and Beanie? I’m goin Beanie.