Fantasy Football Advice

The Super Bowl is near and as usual I’m ready for it way before it starts.  I’ve tried my best to stay away from the hype, but it will be hard come the weekend.  I really want to hear more about how Hank Baskett thinks his wife is hotter than Reggie Bush’s girlfriend.  And how many times Dwight Freeney was asked about his ankle at one setting (96 if you were wondering).  And I’m really glad that TMZ is there so I can know exactly what time players leave clubs.  So I’m hoping to catch up on It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia and maybe buy a fish tank instead of hearing more about Reggie Wayne’s neglected snake (no this isn’t going to be a Greg Oden post).

Here are some tasty morsels from around the league:

Brett Favre: After the Favre lost in the NFC championship game he made sure someone took a picture of his grotesque ankle so he could frame it, and I guess, place it over his mantle.  I am of two minds when it comes to these photos.  Yes, it’s amazing that he could play effectively with that deformed ankle, but at the same time, why do we need photos of it?  To prove how tough you are?  To show that if you hadn’t been hurting the outcome might have been different?  To elevate the Favrestique to God-like proportions?  Get over yourself Brett, you are great, but until you cut a finger off so you can play, keep your injury-porn to yourself.

Jay Cutler: It’s hard not to like Jay Cutler next season with Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator.  Cutler had a horrific year on many levels, but still ended up as the 12th best fantasy quarterback, ahead of the likes of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.  I don’t have faith in Cutler as a leader and I’m not betting on him to be the Bears’ savior, but Martz’s track record for making quarterbacks fantasy studs is too good.  He took a 34 year old Jon Kitna of the Detroit Lions and made him a 4,000 yard quarterback which gave Roy Williams over 1300 yards receiving and defensive back Mike Furrey over a thousand yards!  This bodes well for Hester, Aromashodu, Knox, and even Forte who will be catching a lot of passes, but it doesn’t bode well for young Mr. Greg Olsen.  Martz must have been diddled by a tight end in his formative years, because his offense is where TE’s go to die.

Dwight Freeney: He probably won’t practice all week and then he’ll test his ankle on Sunday to see if he can go.  I reckon we’ll see him play on third downs for as long as he can and then come out as his ankle slowly expands to Favre proportions.

Jerome Harrison: The Browns GM doesn’t think Harrison has the size to be the main back in Cleveland, but didn’t have any trouble with him being overused in the last few games because he was the Browns only decent player.  Maybe they should worry about getting a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and an upgrade at every position on the team before worrying about Harrison.  They could go out looking for a larger back or give James Davis more work to offset the toll on Harrison.  But I still think it’s Harrison’s job to lose and as long as he stays healthy he should get the bulk of the carries.

Jeremy Shockey: He practiced yesterday and looks like he will play and most probably injure himself again while celebrating a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 15.

Michael Vick: He says he is a top 10 quarterback and the Eagles say they want to keep him for next season.  Both lies.  Vick should believe he’s that good, but no way do the Eagles plan on keeping him as a high paid third string QB.  The Rams are looking like the front runner in the Mike Vick sweepst . . . uh, baby shower bingo.  Vick would have to be an upgrade over the craptastic law firm of Bulger, Boller and Null.  Even if he retains his erratic QB’ing skills his legs and ability to air it out will help free up Steven Jackson.

Brandon Marshall: Josh McDaniels tipped his hand when he sat Marshall down for the last game of the season.  Everybody and their dog knows that Marshall is out of there.  Couple that with his history of ass-like attitude, or assitude, they will have to give away a player who just had 101 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: He just had surgery on his knee because the swelling had to go down before plunging the scalpel in. All realistic timetables for his full recovery have him coming back mid-season even though he seems to think he’ll jump off the operating table and do cartwheels all the way home.  Trying to project next season’s playing time for Julian Edelman and Wes Welker will be tough.  If the team and Edelman are doing well, they will probably make sure Welker is 110% before letting him play, which would probably involve a time machine of sorts.

Matt Leinart: It doesn’t look like the Cardinals will look for another QB to compete for the starting job this off season.  Ken Whisenhunt has given Leinart the thumbs up and they will live and die with him.  Leinart flashed some ability in preseason and there is no way they will give him the same responsibilities as Warner.  With Wells showing signs of running back goodness and Boldin possibly being traded, we will see a much more balanced offense out of Arizona.  Whiz took a young quarterback in Roethlisberger far and could do the same with Leinart, but don’t expect huge numbers from him just because he plays for the Cardinals.

Clinton Portis: He still hasn’t been cleared to think too hard due to his last concussion.  Even if the Redskins keep him they will have to find some insurance because there is no way he plays a whole season.  Willis McGahee is probably looking pretty good to them about now.

Us Razzballians thought we would set the world aflame and do what nobody has ever done in the world of football blogging; make Super Bowl predictions!  Yes, I know we are stepping out on a decrepit, old, rotting bridge that could collapse at anytime, but if we make it across, we have crossed over into a world of unrealized opportunity and mystical oneness. Or, just a world full of maybe a little too much Peyton Manning man love.

Chet Gresham (that’s me, Doc):

When you stack the Colts and Saints up next to each other you get one big mass of football player flesh and on the outside it seems to come out fairly even.  Yes, the Saints have an advantage on special teams, the Colts have a slight receiver advantage, the running backs could swing low to the Saints’ side if Bush , the defenses have their own strengths that make them worthwhile, and so on and so forth, and even when you look at the head of each team, the quarterback, you see two very similar players statistically, but one is better than the other.  Often games like this come down to a big turnover (advantage Saints) or a big play (maybe advantage Saints), but in my mind this game comes down to Peyton Manning’s ability to perform under pressure, audible on the fly, and make quick and correct decisions.  I know saying Manning is the key is a simple answer to a complex game, but he’s the one that can hold the most complexity in himself and at the same time act instinctively based on that complexity. It truly is an amazing thing to witness.

The Saints aren’t the machine that the Colts are.  They play loose and force a lot of turnovers which is a great way to win games, but the Colts should be able to exploit a team with that kind of philosophy.  It’s a little like the Matrix, but the machines win.  Just think of Manning as Mr. Anderson or Peyton Manderson and the Saints as that wild orgy in one of the sequels that isn’t as good as the first one.

Indianapolis 40, New Orleans 27

Mark Geoffriau:

I really wish I believed the Saints could win on Sunday, but no matter what angle I take on this game, I have a hard time seeing the Colts losing. For all the excellence of both passing games, I think the critical factor for the Saints may be their ability (or inability) to run the ball against the Colts. If they can run with success, control the clock, and not fall prey to the temptation to trade deep TD throws with the Colts, there’s a chance for victory — but I’d still probably bet on Manning on the last drive. If the Colts continue their playoff defensive success against the run, then I don’t see how the Saints will be able to keep pace with the Indy offense. The Freeney injury definitely hurts the Colts defense, but they always seem to be able to adjust for personnel loss capably.

Indianapolis 37, New Orleans 27

Drew White:

I don’t know if you heard or not, but Dwight Freeney is injured. I can see how you’d miss it given that every network is talking about it 24/7. Overplayed stories are annoying, but this one is pretty significant; the most significant impacts will be subtle yet critically important. With Dwight Freeney out there at 100% you have to chip or double team him. That means there’s one less receiver sent on routes, drastically decreasing your route combination possibilities. A healthy Freeney hinders your ability to utilize the tight end or running backs in passing situations because those are the players who would stay in and help.

Even if Freeney plays he will be nowhere near 100%. The Saints should be able to contain him with one offensive lineman. The Colts defense doesn’t rely on turnovers. Rather, they employ the “bend don’t break” philosophy that the Patriots won multiple Super Bowls with. The Colts don’t do it nearly as well but that is counterbalanced by their better offense.

The Saints should be able to move the ball with relative ease and score points. The Colts are likely game planning them to take away the big play but this is easier said than done. Sean Payton will probably run the ball more than people expect and put together methodical drives in order to chew the clock; as dangerous as his offense is the Colts are even more explosive. I think the Saints will put up 24 points in this contest.

Now let’s look at things from Indy’s perspective. Defensively they have fewer options and will hope for missteps from the Saints in the way of failed 3^rd down conversions and turnovers. There’s no magic formula for stopping the Saints because it’s just not not possible. Dallas’s defense was legit and New Orleans completely picked them apart. The Colts will do their best to “keep everything in front of them,” tackle well, and pick spots to be aggressive.

I refuse to bet against Peyton Manning. A couple years ago the conversation revolved around how Peyton Manning “wasn’t clutch” and might not ever “win the big one.” I entered a contest in the New York Times to discuss this idea. My argument then was basically that this idea was completely ludicrous, that he would likely win multiple Super Bowls, and that at the end of his career he’d be considered the best quarterback in history. I am very anti-bandwagon and Peyton ended up making me look smart. My argument was a finalist but I didn’t win.

Defense and a great rushing attack do not win championships in the modern NFL. You know what wins? Superb quarterback play. It’s nice to have other useful things. No one is going to say that a team would rather not have strengths in other areas, but it’s simply not necessary.

In keeping with my argument, how can I not go with the greatest quarterback in NFL history? Although the Freeney thing hurts them I still think the Colts should still win this game. Peyton’s had two weeks to dissect their defense.

People are getting carried away talking about how “opportunistic” the Saints defense is and how they will blitz Peyton to “put pressure on him.” The Jets already tried that (guess what: they’re a lot better at it than the Saints are). How did that work out for them? Not well. Peyton, the master tactician, will recognize the vast majority of Gregg Williams’ blitz packages and exploit them mercilessly. Drew Brees is a great quarterback and one of my favorite players but he’s not Peyton.

Indianapolis 31, New Orleans 24

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.

There are plenty of reasons to like Chris Johnson for the 2010 season, but before you go crowning his ass lets find out if we know who we think he is. Coming into the 2009 season we knew Johnson had the talent to run wild.  The first time I knew CJ was a freak was in the 2008 obligatory Detroit Lions Thanksgiving beat down.  He took it to them and looked like a man among physically stunted wombat-boys. Of course the question coming into the ‘09 season was if he would lose carries to LenDale (not important enough to have a nickname) White.  But that was answered emphatically and now the only question is, can he be totally radically awesome 2 years in a row?

What are the odds that Johnson once again leads the fantasy world in fancy pants fantasy points next season? First off I’d like to thank Jeff Fisher for not putting Vince Young in earlier, which probably kept the Titans out of the playoffs and kept CJ from getting beat up for a game or two more.  But even with that reprieve, he still carried the ball a shizz-ton which is only a smidge under a shat-ton. He ran the ball a total of 358 times and that was without the benefit of White taking the tough goal line yards for him (yeah, I know we want him to have those, but we also want him to stay healthy! It’s one of those conundrums like the scuba diver in the forest).  So do we have to get into magic numbers and irritating statistical run downs? Not if you don’t want to, jeez!  You can find an arse-ton of articles on overuse of running backs, but the bare boned facts are that backs who rush for 2,000 yards don’t have great following years.  Of course the sample size is extremely small since CJ became only the 6th back to ever do it! The good news is that out of all the 2,000 yard rushers he has the fewest number of touches coming off his 2k season and is the second youngest by 4 days.  Here are the members of the 2,000 club and the age they were when they broke 2k and the total number of carries they had after doing so.  I’m guessing that all these dudes sold their soul to the devil and will be outed by the 700 Club any day now.  Well, O.J. may have already been outed.

Eric Dickerson: 24 years, 3 months, 8 days  769 carries/72 rec

Chris Johnson: 24 years, 3 months, 12 days  609 carries/93 receptions

Jamal Lewis: 24 years, 4 months  1,004 carries/100 receptions

Terrell Davis: 26 years, 2 months 1,343 carries/152rec

O.J. Simpson: 26 years, 5 months, 8 days  1,108 carries/94 rec

Barry Sanders: 29 years,  5 months, 6 days  2,719 carries/315 rec

If I had to draw any comparison to CJ it would be Eric Dickerson.  They have similar numbers at the same age and they have similar running styles. Saying that CJ will somehow repeat the numbers of ED is foolish.  But I can say that CJ is young and that his chances of another great season are better than him not having one.  Yes, he could break something and be a total bust, but not because he has 609 carries under his belt, it would probably have something to do with a 400 pound monstrosity landing on top of him.  Remember, a can of green beans can break your toe people!

When looking at the top running backs for next season we have a top tier of four that I will feel good owning: CJ, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.  But CJ is my clear #1. When I watch him follow his blockers rather than trying to run through them like Adrian Peterson does, I like his chances of staying healthy even more than Peterson.  But I do have an aversion to just grabbing the #1 guy from the year before.  Will Johnson go for 2,000 yards again? Probably not, but he doesn’t need to break records to be the best fantasy back in 2010.  But how often do running backs repeat their #1 status? Let’s take a look-see at the best running backs from 2000 on:

2000 Marshall Faulk, 2001 Marshall Faulk, 2002 Priest Holmes, 2003 Priest Holmes, 2004 Shaun Alexander, 2005 Shaun Alexander, 2006 LaDainian Tomlinson, 2007 LaDainian Tomlinson, 2008 DeAngelo Williams, 2009 Chris Johnson, 2010 ?

As you can see it isn’t a stretch to think that a running back can repeat his fantasy dominance.  Vince Young keeps defenses more honest than Collins can and we should get a whole season of him keeping CJ free from over-molestation (what degree of molestation do you prefer?) I just cannot see any reason to not grab Johnson early and often.

Yeah, I know the joke has run its course, but I’m moving forward with the theory that “Watchu Talkin’ ‘Bout Willis” is now so lame that it is super cool.  So now that we have that out of the way, lets actually talk ’bout Willis and what is going to happen to him.  McGahee is due 3.6 million dollars next season, which is a bit steep for a back up back.  To continue playing with the Ravens he would most likely need to take a pay cut, which, after the season he just had, I doubt he’ll do.

Let’s look at his numbers from 2009 (yes, that’s last year, stop writing 09 on stuff).  The most promising numbers for his pocket book are his 14 touchdowns and his lofty 5.0 yards per carry. He only had 544 yards rushing, but that could be in his favor, not getting the wear and tear on his surgically repaired body. He was on his way to a possible career year when he was Ray Riced by Ray Rice.  I think this should be made into a nationally recognized term because it’s not often that a player is supplanted by anyone after scoring 5 TD’s in the first 3 games! But it was clear that Rice was the younger, more skilled back, but it was also clear that McGahee still has something left in the tank.  So where is he going to take that full tank next season?

Let’s take a look at the leading candidates as far as needs go:

1. Washington: The new coach in town has omnipotent power in D.C. so if he wants McGahee it shall be done.  But do they need him?  Much depends on if Clinton Portis can prove to his old coach that he also still has something left in the tank even though it looks as if his tank is rusted and he leaves oil stains wherever he sits for more than a few minutes.  With Portis’ work ethic, this seasons’ concussion, and his many injuries the Skins could have him towed away this off season.  The rest of the possibilities aren’t really possibilities. Ladell Betts is most likely done due to his age and multiple knee injuries and Quinton Ganther and Rock Cartwright barely are good enough to play on special teams.  Dan Snyder loves throwing money at players and if Shanahan says boo, McGahee has a good shot at being a Redskin next season.

2. San Diego: This game is tough on running backs and even though L.T. is one of the greatest of all time, his days in San diego are numbered.  With a base salary of 5 million and a 2 million dollar option bonus if he stays with the team in 2010, the 3.3 yards per carry Tomlinson is gone.  Nobody in San Diego believes that Darren Sproles can be an every down back so they will be looking in free agency and in the draft. McGahee makes sense because the Bolts still have a team that is primed for a run at the Super Bowl next season and there is a chance that McGahee only has one good year left.

3. Detroit: The Lions have lost faith in Kevin Smith (I agree, that dudes’ movies have gone downhill!) and depending on how severe his injuries are he may not even be ready for the beginning of next season.  Maurice Morris made a good effort at the end of the season, but he is not a starting running back in this league.  The Lions are a young team and McGahee probably doesn’t have much time left in the NFL.  Do they pay him just to help them win one or two extra games at most or do they go younger?  The draft isn’t stacked at running back, but there are 4-5 backs that could turn out to be starters.  They should probably worry about grabbing one of them instead of McGahee.

4. New England: Bill Belichick loves his old running backs.  Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor could be gone and that would leave Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney.  I believe Belichick will be interested in him, but McGahee might want a more stable starting job and more money than the Patriots will be willing to pay him.  I just believe San Diego and Washington are more desperate than the Pats.

5. Houston: The Texans may have found their man in Arian Foster, but he is no sure thing.  Steve Slaton has probably lost his job to Foster and if he’s lucky he’ll be the third down back.  Texans beat writer John McClain (who was either in Die Hard or ran for President, I’m not sure) believes they will grab a RB in the draft.  They are stacked in the passing game and if they can find that running back to grab those tough yards they could do something next year.  It’s a long shot, but the Texans will take a look at McGahee.

6. Tampa Bay: Derrick Ward, Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham aren’t starting running backs in the NFL.  Yes, Caddy had a great comeback year, but in reality he still averaged under 4 yards a carry and eeked out just over 800 yards.  Even though he played in every game he still lived on the injury report with his pals Ward and Graham.  The Bucs aren’t built to win next season so I doubt they will go after McGahee, but they are going to need a running back if they want to contend in the next hundred years or so.

In conclusion, draft Ray Rice!!  Yes, McGahee leaving would be huge for Rice.  I don’t want to see Rice top 300 rushing attempts, but I do want to see him get into the end zone more next season.  With McGahee gone, McClain could see some of those goal line looks, but Rice will no doubt be more productive.

McGahee’s value will depend on his situation next season.  With San Diego he would be in a great situation to score and in Washington he would see a lot of touches as long as Portis is gone.  If I were Willis those would be my choices and I think in fantasy he could be very usable.  His injury history would make him risky, but if he’s a starter, you have to grab him at some point.