Fantasy Football Advice

These are the guys you wave in front of your leaguemates’ faces while you laugh and point and dance.

Brett Favre: 14th QB off the board, finished 3rd — It’s hard to give props to Favre after putting us through Favre-gate, Favre-tractor gate, Favre-ChillySUV gate, and Favre-from over gate, and some other words with gate after them, but on the football field he had a career year and finished as the third best fantasy quarterback.  That’s ahead of The Manning.  Sadly we have to ask if he’ll be back next season.  He’s already said it is “highly unlikely” that he’ll return and his teammates believe he is done.  Of course when he heals up from the beating the Saints gave him he may change his mind.  His, do I stay or do I go, routine will have a huge impact on the Vikings skill players next season.

Ray Rice: 19th RB, finished 4th — This is why you reach for players you like.  Rice got a lot of hype in the preseason, but even with that he was the 19th running back taken. Will all good young running backs that have been run through the hype machine turn out to be Ray Rice? Uh, do I really need to answer that?  So the question comes down to, do you go with young upside or old downside?  Or middle-aged backside? Scratch that last one.  I tend to go with a young back like Rice over an old one like Portis or Westbrook, but that also means I grab the Darren McFaddens of the world too.  Oh, and Ray Rice is awesome.

Thomas Jones: 25th RB, finished 5th — Here is the old downside that ended up going upside my head.  Tom Jones was healthy and steady on a team built for running.  Jones doesn’t break down and I could see him being worthwhile next season, but I could also see him not even being on the Jets if they rather not pay him and go with Shonn Greene and his amazing playoff run.

Ricky Williams: 55th RB, finished 7th — Ricky ran very well as Ronnie Brown’s backup and would have been a good value even if RB hadn’t been injured, but of course he was, and Ricky’s numbers went from buds to blossoms. I like Ricky and he should have some value next season.  I don’t believe he can hold up for a full season with a full workload, but as long as Brown can come back, Ricky should be able to produce in a committee.

Miles Austin: 48th WR, finished 3rd — Austin didn’t come out of nowhere, but he might as well have.  Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams showed that they aren’t good enough to play with the big boys every weekend and Austin is.  It looked like Austin might slow down once he started getting more attention from defenses, but he adapted and showed that he can sustain his numbers as long as he continues to get targets.

Joseph Addai: 22nd RB, finished 9th — It looked like Donald Brown would cut into Addai’s numbers, but Brown never quite developed and then got injured.  Next season should be a different story and I just don’t see Addai putting up the TD numbers he did this year.

Jonathan Stewart: 33rd RB, finished 11th — JStew had an achilles injury in preseason and it looked like it would linger so he dropped in ADP.  Well, it did, but he still played every week in a committee role with DeAngelo Williams.  It wasn’t until Williams went down that he had more than 20 carries in a game and he made those carries count.  Stewart started four out of the last five games and totaled 560 yards averaging 5.9 yards a carry in those four starts.  And in the finale he reinjured his achilles and left the game early. Extrapolate these numbers over a full season and you have 2,240 yards rushing.  Him and Deangelo totaled 2,250 yards.  But of course they totaled 421 carries as a pair, which would have hospitalized any one human being.

Jamaal Charles: 58th RB, finished 12th — I picked up and dropped JC a few thousand times while waiting for Todd Haley to get his head out of his arse.  When he finally did, Charles went on an unbelievable tear that will get him in the top 10 of most drafts next season.

Sidney Rice: No ADP, finished 7th — I give a lot of credit to Favre for giving Rice the work he deserved.  Rice has the skills, but he will be hurt the most if Favre stays home.

Vernon Davis: 17th TE, finished 1st — His ability was never in question, but he couldn’t quite get it done.  Coaching, quarterback play, and his own work ethic all contributed to that, but he finally broke out and in a big way.  His only real competition for receptions is Michael Crabtree so I don’t see him not being targeted a lot next season.

Rashard Mendenhall: 42nd RB, finished 14th — Mendenhall was in Mike Tomlin’s doghouse for the preseason and early in the regular season. He didn’t touch the ball once on offense in week 3 while being chastised by the smoldering-eyed Tomlin.  But he must have learned somthin somethin because in week 4 he totaled 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.  He didn’t have a lot of huge games, but he was steady, and since he’ll be the main back for a good team he’ll have a lot of value next season.

Steve Smith: 52nd WR, finished 11th — It was difficult divining who would fill the space left by Plaxico Burress.  And when we did, it didn’t quite work out; yes, I’m looking at you Mr. Manningham.  Mr. Smith went to NY and didn’t take it by storm, but slowly ppr’d them into submission.  He’s not going to grab a ton of TD’s and rack up many 100 yard games, but he’ll get you 5-8 receptions and 50-75 yards a game, all without shooting himself in the leg.

So instead of hearing about Favre every day until the Super Bowl we get to see grainy color film of the Manning boys playing catch in the backyard and hear tales of Drew Brees in his motor boat picking people off roofs.  I’m mainly happy that I don’t have to hear Rex Ryan blathering on about how his team should be favored.  Maybe he was saying flavored instead of favored?  Is that why he has put on an extra 150 pounds?  Are there any back up Jets’ kickers missing?

I’ll save you all the suspense; I’m going with The Mannings in this bout of white bread vs. Creole.  Besides the fact that I think Peyton is the ultimate X factor, I refuse to root for any team with Jeremy Shockey on it to win the Super Bowl. As commenter Danimal35 said, no team that lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season has ever won the Super Bowl.  I think that record will continue in Miami in two weeks.  Two weeks!? Ugh.

Peyton Manning: I would like to thank Manning for not making me look too stupid in front of my throngs of readers.  Hi mom! My prediction that passing is the new fad to take over the NFL was correct!  And also thanks to Bradbury Robinson and his “projectile pass,” which sounds more like vomit than football, but whatevs.  Even though the AFC Championship wasn’t a last second affair like the NFC game, it was a better all around game without the fumbleruski play being implemented on each drive.  Peyton once again showed why he is the best QB in the game by steering away from Revis Island and docking most his passes on Collie Reef and in Garcon Bay.  Next week he gets the turnover happy, but not very cover happy pass defense.

Joseph Addai: He came out of the game again this week, but managed to get back in there and out rush the rushing elite Jets.  With 2 weeks rest he will be ready to go in the Super Bowl against the poor Saints’ rush defense.

Pierre Garcon: He had 11 receptions, 151 yards and a touchdown and I could chalk it all up to Revis taking out Wayne, but Garcon didn’t look like he was just a beneficiary of a lot of targets and poor defensive backs; he made some amazing catches.  I like Anthony Gonzalez, but he may have just been Wally Pipped.

Austin Collie: Collie also came up big, but didn’t look quite as athletic after the catch as Garcon.  He ended up with a great 123 yards and a touchdown grab, but should see his role decreased a little as long as Darrelle Revis doesn’t make the trip to Miami.

Reggie Bush: He caught a pass for a touchdown, but otherwise he once again showed why he is pretty much worthless in the sense of things that are worth something, which he isn’t.  He muffed a punt, or bushed it, if you will. And by muffed or bushed, I mean that he bailed out so he wouldn’t get hit.

Pierre Thomas: He totaled 99 yards and a rushing touchdown and looks like he’ll continue to be the go to guy in the Super Bowl after Reggie Bush had no luck running the ball.  He was the second Pierre to have a good game on Championship Sunday.  What happened to all the Merican football players?!!

Drew Brees: He has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs so far.  It was difficult to tell if he was playing or not since all I can remember is Brett limping around, but looking back at the stats it looks like he was.  He didn’t out grit Ol’ Favre, but he was steady.  He gets a Colts pass defense that wasn’t really tested by Flacco and Sanchez actually looked good against them.  Look for around 1,000 total yards passing in Miami.

Devery Henderson: The DH has come up big in the playoffs so far.  Picking what receivers will get the yards and touchdowns for the Saints is a crapola shoot at best, but if you like riding the hot hand, and who doesn’t?, then get DH in your lineup.  I think the DH is allowed to play in a neutral stadium.

Brett Favre: He really did get beat like a 40 year old pinata, but made some amazing throws in the process.  His last throw was a pick, but I still can’t understand why Childress was running the ball and settling for a 51 yard field goal?  Then, after having too many men in the huddle, the Vikings were pretty much out of field goal range and Favre had to make a play, so he forced it like is his want to do, and got pickaruskied.  It wasn’t like they were on the five yard line and needed a chip shot to win it.  Whatever happens with Favre he proved that he can still play at an elite level, which just doesn’t happen with 40 year oldies.

Adrian Peterson: He had some great runs and three touchdowns and some really bad ball control, no not the Paris Hilton kind (sorry mom), but the fumbling kind.  He needs to figure some shizz out and quick.  He hasn’t lost his speed or moves or power, but he doesn’t look like he knows what the eighch he’s doing out there.  He just plows ahead with reckless abandon and coughs up the ball (see Paris Hilton) more than he should.  He had an amazing game statistically and there is no reason to think he will slow down fantasy wise.  So why should we care?!

Sidney Rice: He caught a touchdown, but saw a lot of double coverage, so Favre looked elsewhere.  Rice has the skills to be an elite #1 receiver in this league, but TJax isn’t the guy to help him remain an elitist.

Bernard Berrian: 102 yards receiving was his highest number for the season.  His age, injury proneness, competition, and possible loss of Favre make him free agency fodder in a lot of leagues next season.

Mark Sanchez: I was impressed by the Bearded-Sanchez.  When he needed to make throws he made them.  Ryan should have actually turned him loose in the early downs more often instead of plodding ahead with the ineffective running game, but what do I know? (don’t answer that).  Sanchez will continue to improve, but his fantasy value should still have a low ceiling (think Gandalf in Bag End) next year.  If they can keep Greene, Jones and Washington they should continue to run it down opponents’ throats.

Shonn Greene: He injured his ribs and only ended up with 10 carries for 48 yards, but he had already shown his ability in the games before this.  He is going to be super-hyped, especially if Thomas Jones is let go due to salary and oldness.  If that happens, I’ll probably be conducting the super-hype train.

Braylon Edwards: He ended up with 100 yards and a long touchdown which he amazingly caught.  Edwards must be a head case or maybe he just can’t catch, but he has the ability to get open and make amazing catches when the ball doesn’t hit him directly in the hands. I’ll always be wary of drafting him.

Jerricho Cotchery: Sanchez hooked up with Cotchery 5 times for 102 yards.  The Cotch Rocket is a steady receiver and should continue to be as Sanchez blossoms.  Looking back at what I just wrote I could be writing a review of a new ABC Family show. If they make a pregnancy pact I am going to freak out!

I’ve gone a mediocre 4-4 in the playoff games this season, so the odds of a 1-1 record today are very good.  My belief that the best passing teams will prevail is hurting my record; damn you Jets!  So will I learn from my mistakes?  Of course not!  Do you have more respect for the Jets now? Yes, yes I do Mr. or Mrs. Jets fan, but I also haven’t lost my respect for Peyton Manning.  The only way to stop Manning is to get to him, but to get to him the Jets will have to blitz and blitzing Peyton Manning is like Christmas morning at the Manning’s. Yes, if the Jets can run effectively they can hang with the Mannings, but the Colts, even though they can be soft up the middle, have a good record against tough rushing offenses.  The Manning’s defense did well against both Ray Rice and Chris Johnson this season.  I see Manning playing conservatively and not testing Revis that often, but that’s how they’ll win.  If he tries too hard to force the deep passes he’ll get picked and that’s what the Jets want.  He won’t give them what they want, but if they try sometimes they might find they get what they need.

The second game pits two very good offenses against each other.  I underestimated the Viking front seven’s ability to get to Tony Romo last week, but I feel a little better about the Saints’ offensive line at home where they can hear themselves think. It won’t be an easy task, protecting Brees, but it will be much more manageable in the Superdome.  It’s almost impossible to say who will come through for the Saints, but that’s one of the biggest reasons I like them this week.  Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Reggie Bush, Devery Henderson, Lynell Hamilton, Mike Bell, founder of Wendy’s Dave Thomas, Pierre Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, Robert Meachem, anyone of them could do something to put them over the top.  From top to bottom I believe the Vikings probably have a better team, but in the dome, and as long as Brees has time, I believe the Vikings pass defense is weak and Brees can beat guys with his deep balls.

All the NFL news that’s fit to link:

The Sporting News’ Vinnie Eyer gives us his Viewer’s Guide to Championship Sunday.

Scout.com does a great job of breaking down the games for this weekend.

Brian Burke from Advanced NFL Stats takes a look at the win probability for each team in today’s games at The Fifth Down.  People do not like stats, especially when they say your team is going to lose.  Yes, stats aren’t infallible, but they can tell you what has happened in the past, giving you at least a window into how a team performs in certain situations.

NFL Fanhouse gives us their start/sits for the championship games. I think we need to streamline “start/sit.”Maybe “starsit” or “stit” or “sitart”?

NBC and Rotoworld give us their X-Factors for today’s games. I love Rotoworld’s content, but I rather just have the text than all the photos.  Yes, you have the rights to Getty images, but that doesn’t mean you have to give more space to pics than words!  But, yes, I’m linking to them, because I like the brains behind and under the photos.

Squidbilly Early Cuyler gives us his Stone Cold Lock of the Century.

The Red Zone Report takes a look at the championship games.

Despite Percy Harvin’s troubles with migraines on Thursday and Friday he participated in practice and meetings on Saturday.

Cold Hard Football Facts presents their Real and Spectacular AFC and NFC championship game picks.

Matt Bowen of the National Football Post poses 10 questions for championship Sunday.

Eric Edholm of Pro Football Weekly looks at the possible Super Bowl matchups and their annoyance factors.  I personally would be annoyed the most by the Jets and the Vikings.

It’s been 17 years since two #1 seeds have faced each other in the Super Bowl and Pro Football Reference takes a look at the probabilities for all you stat geeks.

For nearly a decade the NFC has been inferior to the AFC. There have occasionally been some teams at the top with enough talent to beat the best teams in the AFC, but by the time we get to the NFC Championship Game only one of the two teams seems likely to be competitive in the Super Bowl.

This season the NFC really turned the corner, with a lot of high quality teams and each division containing at least one. The future looks bright for the Conference with a lot of good, young teams like the Falcons and Packers. The NFC East should continue to be solid with the Eagles seamlessly rebuilding, the Giants (if they get their defensive backfield healthy), the Cowboys (unless this year was a fluke, they seem to be on the upswing), and now with Mike Shanahan in Washington I wouldn’t be surprised to see things turn around.

What’s the point of all this? Well, for the first time in a long time, both teams playing in the NFC Championship are good enough to beat the AFC victor. If the Jets somehow beat the Colts either Minnesota or New Orleans should be favorite to win. Personally I think Indianapolis is going to bury New York but there’s always a chance.

To say that either of these teams could beat a team like Indianapolis is a big deal. We’re talking about a football team that probably would’ve went undefeated if they wanted to. Peyton Manning is the ultimate field general and doesn’t need a defense or running game to win but this year he has a little bit of both. In the entire NFL I think there are only two teams that I would give much of a chance against the Colts and it’s the Vikings and Saints. That is significant.

Road to the Championship Game: Minnesota Vikings

Would all the haters in the room please raise their hand? (My hand would be raised). I am just not a “Brett Favre Guy.” I think he’s a self-absorbed, egotistical sociopath. He gets way too much credit for things he doesn’t deserve and he gets a reputation for being so “clutch” in the playoffs despite all the evidence to the contrary. The man only has one Super Bowl victory to his credit and the MVP in that game was Desmond Mason, the KICK RETURNER. What I do remember seeing through the years is Brett trying to do too much and throwing idiotic interceptions that cost his team many, many times in the playoffs.

This year was a huge surprise to me. With all the hoopla surrounding him joining the team (all of it self-imposed) it appeared likely that the Vikings would self destruct at some point. Other than some late season difficulties the team played extremely well all season. What’s more surprising is that Favre didn’t try to force things too much in the offense. The result of that was arguably his best season ever at age 40. Even for a Favre hater like me that’s impressive.

If the Vikings pulled this victory out it’d be epic regardless of their performance in the Super Bowl. Favre’s lore and mystique would be further cemented in the annals of NFL history and many people (who aren’t too bright) would consider him without a doubt the greatest quarterback in NFL history. The Vikings may say that they would be disappointed with anything less than a Super Bowl win but just getting there would be a huge accomplishment.

From a football standpoint if you broke down each team there’s no doubt that Minnesota would be the most balanced. Offensively they have a line that provides great protection and opens holes in the running game. They have excellent receiver play due mostly to the emergence of Sidney Rice as an elite player. Brett Favre has had a lot to do with bringing him along this season and if he can play within himself he’s a huge positive for this team as well. Their defensive line presses the pocket in the passing game and shuts down lanes in the running game, particularly in the middle. Their defensive backfield is also extremely solid, boasting several playmakers. They aren’t quite as impressive at linebacker since E.J. Henderson went out. Overall, when you look at this football team they are just rock solid.

The most important thing for Minnesota coming in to this football game is coaching and game planning. I sort of like Brad Childress; he did a nice job in Philadelphia and is a cerebral leader, a poor man’s Bill Belichick you could even say. The task at hand in this game, however, is more difficult than anything they’ve faced all season.

Vikings Defensive Game Plan

The Saints are EXPLOSIVE unlike any other team in football. Worse yet they are nearly unstoppable at home in the dome. It helps the Vikings also playing in a dome because they’re used to the turf, the noise, etc. What Childress and his staff are going to have to decide is how to take on this offense. There are really two ways to defend them and the key will be to choose the correct strategy at the correct time.

As with any team the key is to get pressure on the quarterback. Drew Brees makes that more difficult than most due to his elusiveness and escapability. If you come after Brees the Saints can dump it off to Reggie Bush in the flat or look to use him in the screen game. If the Vikings come out aggressive that’s the route I expect Sean Payton to go. Bush is devastating in the passing game so Minnesota needs to know where he is at all times when they’re bringing pressure.

The other approach the Vikings might take is to only rush four or five guys up front and try to contain the big play. This is the “bend don’t break” method the Patriots have been so successful with for years. The Vikes have an advantage should they decide to go this route because their guys up front are so good at shedding blockers and getting to the quarterback. The downside to this when you’re playing the Saints is that trying not to give up big plays against them often causes you to do so. When Brees is able to take a seven step drop he finds receivers down the field for huge gains.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Personally I think you have to try and go after Brees because sitting back against him is death. The Vikings have the right mixture of personnel to pull this off. Although there’s no way to shut this offense down you can force them to turn the ball over with pressure and that’s what Brad Childress will probably try to do.

Vikings Plan of Attack on Offense

The Saints defense is respectable but the Vikings should be able to move the ball against them with relative ease. The key for them will be not turning the ball over by trying to force the issue. Favre needs to play within himself as he’s done all season and pick his spots. Adrian Peterson’s one bugaboo is that he doesn’t protect the football adequately while running and tends to put it on the ground too much. The one big strength of the Saints defense is they are extremely opportunistic and cause a lot of turnovers.

The Vikings don’t need any specific plan of attack against this defense. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to move the ball with relative ease, chew clock, and put points on the board. Expect a heavy dose of Adrian Peterson as usual. The only way they’ll struggle offensively is by beating themselves and handing the ball over to New Orleans. If that happens this game could get ugly fast.

Final Thoughts

So what are their chances of winning this game? I don’t think its 50-50 but they shouldn’t be a huge underdog. The Vikings have all the necessary pieces to beat this very solid football team. I won’t drum on about the implications too much because I did that already. As with any team that has a chance to go to the Super Bowl this is an ENORMOUS game.

Sunday 3:00 EST

New York Jets @ Indianapolis

Shonn Greene has unofficially moved passed Thomas Jones on the run first offense of the J-E-T-S.  There is no reason to think he won’t see the majority of the carries once again this week, but don’t be surprised if Jones comes in on big downs because Ryan trusts him a little more with ball security. The Jets must be able to run the ball to win this game.  If they are successful, they wear down the Colts front 7 and keep Peyton Manning off the field.  The Colts defense did face a similar offense last week and slowed down the dynamic Ray Rice.  The Jets offensive line coupled with Tony Richardson is a formidable force, but Mark Sanchez will need to do more than sit there and look pretty if the Jets want to win.

NYJ: Greene +1. Jones -1

The Jets are proving over and over that their defense is too hot to handle and too cold to hold and if you call them the Colts Busters they might just be in control.  Last week the Peyton Mannings took on a good defense and chipped away at them through the short pass.  Joseph Addai, Donald Brown and Mike Hart P.I. all got some work in against Baltimore, but didn’t put up numbers worth squat.  Addai was out for a quarter with a shoulder injury, but should be the starter once again.  If you think the Colts win and are in a league that you need to pick the winner in, it’s hard not to go with Addai, but if your in a weekly matchup I think Greene is your guy.

IND: Addai -1, Brown, -2, Hart -2

Sunday 6:40 EST

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Adrian Peterson is healthy and a man-beast, but can’t seem to break out.  The rumblings are that he’s not following his blocks and thinks his awesomeness should overtake the game, but it’s not happening.  The Saint’s run defense is their biggest weakness and it would behoove the Vikings to resurrect Purple Jesus in the Superdome, but will they?  It isn’t as if they need AP to run for a hundred yards to win, but against the Saints he has a shot at breaking out, and they should give him the opportunities.

MIN: Peterson +2, Taylor 0

Last week we were once again subjected to the unpredictability of the Saints’ backfield. Reggie Bush had a huge game while Lynell Hamilton vultured a goal line touchdown from Pierre Thomas.  I’ve noted my dislike for the committee in New Orleans and it just continues to screw fantasy football players.  This would be about the time we would contemplate putting Bush into our lineups which will mean that he does nothing.  He does seem to play better in big games so there is a chance that he will break one.  The Vikings tough rush defense should keep Pierre Thomas bottled up and who knows who will get the goal line carries.  If I had to gamble it would be on Bush, but it would be a big gamble.

NO: Bush 0, Thomas -1, Hamilton -2, Bell -2