Fantasy Football Advice

Continuing from back in the day when I posted on the first three rounds of our mock draft, I have rounds 4-7 for your enjoyment.  You should also check out some other posts on the draft from my mockonspirators Melissa Jacobs at Football Girl, Bryan Fontaine at Rookie Blitz and Matt Schauf at RapidDraft.

My picks are in bold, because they’re bold.

Round Four

37. Anquan Boldin

38. Joseph Addai

39. Steve Smith (CAR)

40. Marques Colston

41. Wes Welker

42. Cedric Benson

43. Jerome Harrison

44. Shonn Greene

45. Sidney Rice

46. Steve Smith (NYG)

47. Braylon Edwards

48. Brandon Jacobs

– Braylon Edwards is the ultimate risk reward player, heavy on the risk, with a side of risk

– Both Steve Smiths made an appearance in the 4th round.  They are opposites in many ways and have different strengths.  The Mighty Giant is a consistent ppr stud, but won’t get you big yardage and TD games, while Mighty Mouse is the exact opposite; he won’t be consistent, but will have some huge games.

– Joseph Addai pulled off a great year when many thought he was on his way out, but can he do it again?  I’m not going to doubt him completely, but I have to be realistic and believe his numbers won’t be as high as last year with Donald Brown having a season under his belt.

– Shonn Greene and Jerome Harrison both turned it on toward the end of the season and I like both in the fourth round.  They have tremendous upside if they can get the ball.

– I think the steal of the draft has to be Cedric Benson this late.  It’s not a sexy pick, but he will get the bulk of the touches and is one of the few RBs that can make such a bold and outlandish claim.

Round Five

49. Donovan McNabb

50. Vernon Davis

51. Thomas Jones

52. Jay Cutler

53. Dallas Clark

54. Hakeem Nicks

55. Santonio Holmes

56. Jonathan Stewart

57. Antonio Gates

58. Dwayne Bowe

59. Brent Celek

60. Jason Witten

– I don’t really know where Jay Cutler’s ADP will be this season, but with many QB’s gone at this point I felt like I needed to grab a top QB.  When you hear the term “top QB,” Jay Cutler’s name doesn’t pop into your mind, but the guy is going to wing it, fling it, and sting it with Martz at the joystick.

– Thomas Jones went a round after Shonn Greene and I bet we’ll see that happening quite a bit this season.  It would be nice to know exactly how the committee will be split up, but you really have to pick the young guy with upside first.

– Jonathan Stewart went ballistic toward the end of last season and there are even rumors that D Willy could be going elsewhere, but I just don’t see that happening.  The Panthers will need both their running backs to compete, which means they will be splitting up those yummy fantasy points.

– I like Santonio Holmes this late.  I could see him going much earlier in drafts this season cuz he’s just that good.

Round Six

61. Terrell Owens

62. Chad Ochocinco

63. Greg Olsen

64. Donald Driver

65. Pierre Garcon

66. Michael Crabtree

67. Ben Roethlisberger

68. Hines Ward

69. Derrick Mason

70. Mike Sims Walker

71. Darren McFadden

72. Fred Jackson

– Here’s where my old man wide receiver crush comes into play once again.  Mason is steady and unless the Ravens get someone other than Stalloworth, like Boldin, I don’t see his numbers taking a huge hit this year.

– I’m loving fast Freddy Jackson at #72.  He showed that he can hold up for a season while getting the bulk of the carries and also showed that he can have huge games in the process.  We can’t be sure how he will be used, but he will be used.

– Terrell Owens might be worth something on the right team, but I won’t be grabbing him unless he falls further, and if he’s falling off the edge of a cliff I might just let him go.

– Mike Martz’s first born child was stolen by a tight end.

Round Seven

73. Robert Meachem

74. T.J. Houshmandzadeh

75. Tony Gonzalez

76. Ahmad Bradshaw

77. Eli Manning

78. Jermichael Finley

79. Owen Daniels

80. LeSean McCoy

81. Felix Jones

82. Kenny Britt

83. Percy Harvin

84. Jeremy Maclin

–Round seven brought out the upside picks.  Maclin, Harvin, Meachem and Britt are all young receivers with a lot of reasons to think they could break out this season. Britt has the least competition for touches, but also has Vince Young throwing to him.

– I always want at least one decent running back back-up and here I was choosing between Bradshaw and Jones.  I like both and both have injury issues, but also could end up having huge years since both are obviously the most talented backs on their team.   I like Bradshaw just a bit more than Jones.

– T.J. Houshmandzadeh is an interesting pick.  I don’t like him, but we could see that Seahawks offense really open up under Carroll.  I can’t help but worry about Hasselbeck sleeping awkwardly in a team meeting and rupturing his spleen.

– Jermichael Finley is going to go early this season.  I agree that he is worth a high ranking, but he’s still a tight end and tight ends are deep.  That didn’t sound right did it?

Today is the end of the regular season.  I am not a happy camper. Like all good things, the season went by way too fast, but also like all good things, I will stretch it out and pound it into ground.  Join me won’t you!?

For the playoffs there are a lot of fantasy football choices out there, but I’m limiting myself to three this year.  The first is over at Sporting News where you can join our playoff league, password Schmohawk; the second is the playoff challenge at NFL.com where you can also join us; lastly you can find me making a bunch of teams over at Snapdraft which seems to have about 20 sites that host it, but whatever.

You’ll have to rip fantasy football from my cold, dead hands!!!

Here are a few thoughts before the games today.  Good luck!

Brandon Marshall: Josh McDaniels called his star receiver out for not playing with a hamstring strain.  And then to add insult to injury he benched him.  This has a load of interesting consequences that don’t really matter for week 17 so we won’t get into them now, but a top 5 start for this week is now on the bench.  This hurts Kyle Orton. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter will get a lot of work.

Drew Brees: He’s going all out for the completion percentage record by sitting on the bench and texting Harry Conick Jr.  Sean Payton said earlier in the week that they would go “all out,” but I guess he meant they would go all out in their benching of starters. This seems to be the final word on the subject so bench your Saints because their scrubs will be playing the Panthers starters.

Ahmad Bradshaw: It’s looking like two broken feet might keep him out the Minnesota game.  What a wuss! If I had two broken feet I would easily be able to play running back in a NFL game!  Well, if he ends up not playing I don’t see Danny Ware or Gatrell Johnson doing much against a good rush defense.

Donald Brown: Chad Simpson won’t play and Joseph Addai will only play a series or two so it looks like Donald Brown will get the majority of work and the majority of the work against the Bisons means he could rack up some real yardage.

Billy Volek: The Native Americans have much of their defensive backfield in the infirmary and Volek will get a lot of playing time.  I may be trying to live in the past with Volek, but I could see him having a good game.

Chris Johnson: Seattle just gave up 6 touchdowns to the Packers and one of those was to the ghost of Ahman Green.  The Titans have absolutely nothing to play for except to make Chris Johnson the 6th player ever to accumulate 2,000 yards rushing.  He needs 128 to reach 2k and 234 to break Eric Dickerson’s record. He also has 2355 yards from scrimmage and only needs 75 yards to break Marshall Faulk’s record.  The no-doubt #1 pick next season should finish the season strong.  I’m glad I have NFL Red Zone so I can see some of it!

Jabar Gaffney: He becomes the de facto number one with Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall out.  They will run and then get tackled and then run some more, but Gaffney will see an uptick in targets for sure.

Buffalo Bills: Donald Brown could rack up yardage, but Curtis Painter looks like he just got pulled from the stands.  If you are hurting for a defense today you could throw them out there like they threw Painter out there.

Vernon Davis: He currently has 12 receiving touchdowns which is one behind Randy Moss. If he ends up tied or in the lead, he would become the first tight end ever to lead the league in TD receptions.  He’s come a long way from being mooned on the sideline by Mike Singletary (I may have got my facts a little mixed up there).

Tony Sheffler: McDaniels also benched Sheffler, but he gets the bottom of the list since he doesn’t do much.  If you are hurting for a tight end, or if your tight end is hurting, you could play Daniel Graham.  With Marshall and Sheffler out he should get more targets. Sheffler is actually pretty good and McDaniels looks like he’s cleaning house (which you would think would come after they are eliminated from making the playoffs, not before).  If Sheffler can land in a better situation next year, he has a shot at being productive.

One last look at who might rest their players today:

Teams almost certain to wave the white flag Caldwell style: Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints.

Teams whose starters will probably be playing craps on the sidelines at some point: Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers.

Team who has multiple personality disorder: Arizona Cardinals; if the Giants win the early game they play all out, if they lose, Warner motors his power chair to the bench.

Team that doesn’t need to win, but has the greatest chance to play their starters the longest: New England Patriots.

Predicting how long players will go in week 17 is starting to give me a twitch.  Listening to coaches and players talk about playing time is about as productive as watching Jersey Shore for moral guidance.

Here are some noteworthy happenings in the NFL:

Tom Brady: He says he will play the whole game, but Peyton Manning hinted at similar things last week and was yanked and not in the way he would prefer. The Vegas line still favors the Texans by 8 so I don’t think everybody is buying that they’ll play the whole game.  I believe they’ll play most of the game, but I just don’t feel 100% confident in that. If your backups are scrubtastic I’d go with Brady, Moss, and Welker without too many qualms.

DeAngelo Williams: He didn’t practice on Thursday and is looking less likely to go on Sunday.  The Daily Show should go prime time again, well, not prime time, but whatever you call Sunday afternoon time.

Brandon Marshall: All reports point to Marshall playing against the Chiefs, but you have to worry about the hammy acting up on him during the game. If he doesn’t practice today I would take some Xanax before starting him.

Hines Ward: He has a problem that can best be described by a Denny’s special called Moons Over My Hammy. Well, maybe not best described, but he has a hamstring problem and the Steelers are playing in Miami, so there’s that. I’m starting to feel better and better about throwing Mike Wallace out there.  I did notice that CBS took my 60 Minutes Mike Wallace comparison and ran with it.  I am the only one who ever noticed they had the same name!!!

Julius Jones: He didn’t practice once again on Thursday and there really is no need to throw him out there for the last game of the season. Right now it looks like Justin Forsett will get the start and should be a good flex play against the Titans and will be auditioning for 2010 and possibly Cats, meow.

Correll Buckhalter: He was injured early last week and left the game, but has practiced this week and gets a favorable matchup with the Chiefs who he and Knowshon Moreno ran over earlier in the season, oh and Jerome Harrison and some others as well.

Ricky Williams: He has been limited in practice and split work with Lex Hilliard. He will probably get the start against the Steelers, but Hilliard could see an increased role. This makes Ricky a bit risky and you don’t want any of that business.

Tony Gonzalez: He didn’t practice on Thursday and doesn’t look like he’ll go on Sunday. I like Matt Ryan this week, but without Gonzo you have to downgrade him a little.

Ahmad Bradshaw: He will sit out most of this week’s practice as usual and he gets a tough matchup with Minnesota, but he will also be the main back and worth a flex play.

Donald Brown: His heavy workload in relief of Joe Addai last week, coupled with his lack of yardage, should get him a goodly amount of carries so he can get back into a rhythm of sorts.  And as long as he gets starlight, sweet dreams and music, who could ask for anything more?

Week 16 had a lot of big scorers come from odd names: Brandon Jackson, Jabar Gaffney, Darren Sproles, and not Curtis Painter. Hopefully you sat your Colts except for Austin Collie and started only players who scored lots of points!

I know not everybody’s league is over, including the RCL leagues, so we’ll be going into as much detail about injuries and matchups for week 17 as we have for the whole season.

Our fantasy contest will be decided tonight and it looks like Guy and Asdrubal Bastardo will be vying for the prize. If Purple Jesus can score 23 or more points Mr. Bastardo can win at the wire.  Good luck to you both!

Here are my thoughts on Sunday’s games:

Jonathan Stewart and the Carolina Panthers punched the Giants in the mouth and then teabagged them after they were knocked out on the ground. If Stewart didn’t have D Willy to contend with he would be a top 10 back.  Williams and Stewart are only the sixth running back duo to go for a thousand yards a piece in the same year.  I’m guessing John Fox is kicking himself for sticking with Delhomme for so long, or at least he should be.

Peyton Manning: He kept his helmet on and sang “Put me in coach, I’m ready to play!” while Caldwell ignored him and put in Curtis Painter to prove that our old timey surnames should determine our careers.

Jerome Harrison: He carried the ball 39 times which set a Browns’ record and had a touchdown and 148 yards. He will have some competition from James Davis next year, but he is every down material.  We’ll have to see how things play out in Cleveland, but he will be high in a lot of rankings this off season. Including ours.

Brandon Jackson: Jebus! What happened up in Green Bay? The Seahawks are making a run for worst team in the NFL. As I was needing Aaron Rodgers to throw for a few touchdowns instead he was handing off to Grant and Jackson. Oh fantasy football Gods, why are you so fickle?

Brandon Jacobs: He has gone from a bull to a steer (they have their junk snipped).  Ahmad Bradshaw is the better of the two and should be the one you want next year.

Laurence Maroney: This is why you don’t own Patriot running backs.  Maroney fumbles on the goal line and he’s done. Sammy Morris became the fantasy back for the rest of the game.  Another situation to just stay away from unless Belichick takes a leave of absence.

Mike Sims-Walker: He was only targeted three times.  Hrm?  He wasn’t on the injury report and the Jags needed to throw, so it doesn’t make much sense.  Maybe today was just a bad day for hyphenated fantasy players.

Wes Welker: He was hurt early in the season and missed 2 games and has 122 receptions, breaking his franchise record.  I think that’s an average of 36.5 receptions a game.  You may want to check my math.  The guy is a ppr monster.

Cedric Benson: His injury slowed down a huge fantasy season, but he helped a lot of teams this year and his 140 yards against the Chiefs wasn’t too bade. He should be good to go once again next season.  Bernard Scott will push him, but he should keep the starting job.  All this next year talk is making me sad.

Jamaal Charles: He had a tough matchup against a good Bengals’ defense and still totaled 124 yards. We were confident he could do it against weaker teams, but this game makes it easier to see him as an every week starter next season.  As my mom used to say, “he’s a keeper!”  She always loved my brother more!  Next week he should run over Denver.

Steve Smith: Eli Manning was horrid just like the rest of his team, but Smith was one of the few bright spots for the Giants. He will be high on many waiver wire pickups of the year lists.

Arian Foster: One week too late! Foster had 97 yards and a touchdown the week after being benched in the first quarter after fumbling. I don’t want to get into how stupid Kubiak is.  When you argue with fools, well, you know.  The Texans running backs are a mess going into the off season.

Justin Forsett: Once again he looked better than Julius Jones.  It’s too late for him this year, but he should pass Jones as the #1 back next year.  Now, if  Matt Hasselbeck can suck less.

Matt Hasselbeck: Yes, he’s thrown 4 interceptions, but that was against the Packers in the frozen tundra and what not; cut him some slack!  Wait, what’s that? He also threw 4 last week at home? Against the Bucs!? Oh, what’s up with that?

Ryan Grant: I haven’t been a Ryan Grant believer this season, but he went and showed me! His 97 yards and 2 touchdowns could have been much better if Brandon Jackson hadn’t vultured 3 TD’s!  I’m never going to think he is an elite back, but he gets the job done.  I’ll still be wary of him next year, but you can call me an idiot if you want.

Robert Meachem: Another waiver wire success this year.  He got into the end zone once again. He gets a TD every 4.75 catches. How he gets three quarters of a catch is a mystery, but Meachem is a TD magician.

Roddy White: He came on strong for the fantasy championship game with 139 yards and 2 touchdowns.  The Falcons will be back next year and White and Ryan will be had at good value.

Cadillac Williams: He ran for 148 total yards against a pitiful Saints run defense.  He still can play, but there is no clear winner in the Bucs backfield.  Josh Freeman has a chance to be a decent QB and could help Ward or Williams to some decent numbers next year, but both are such injury risks it will be impossible to recommend either.

Thomas Jones: He continues to put up numbers even with Shonn Greene cutting into his carries. The Jets offensive line should get a lot of credit for how well the 31 year old Jones has played this year, but Jones continues to stay healthy.  Greene had a nice game as well and it will be interesting to see how long Jones holds him off.

Quinton Ganther: He’s not very good.  If he even makes a starting roster next year I would be surprised.

Pierre Thomas: It finally looked like he might have a decent game, well, for him, he did, but he was injured and didn’t play in the second half. Sean Payton, Bill Belichick and Gary Kubiak are fantasy RB coolers.

Today is the day! For most of us still going our championship game is today. We still don’t know what the Colts are going to do with their starters and I have a feeling Caldwell isn’t exactly sure either, which makes them a little risky no matter what your world view is. The Colts did sign Drew Willy Wonka off the practice squad which leads many to think they could rest Peyton at some point so Willy would be the backup to Curtis Painter. I have been on the fence about the whole thing with a slight tilt toward playing it safe, but this news gives me even more reason to play it safe.  I’m sitting Colts unless my second choice is pretty bad, or ugly bad.

DeAngelo Williams: He didn’t practice at all this week and is listed as doubtful, but did make the trip to NY. The Giants rush defense has been decent recently, but an every down Jonathan Stewart has proven he belongs in your lineup, so make sure you check the comments for the most recent actives and inactives today.

Percy Harvin: He has practiced in full this week and seems to be better and should be back into your lineups as a #3 receiver.

Correll Buckhalter: He is listed as probable and should return against Philadelphia. This makes Knowshon Moreno less desirable and with Bucky coming off the injury it also makes him a no go for fantasy rosters.

Hines Ward: He is probable with his hamstring injury, but of course with this kind of injury you have to worry about him reaggravating it during the game, well, you don’t have to worry about it; it’s actually something you shouldn’t get an ulcer over, but if you have someone else of equal startability, go with him.

Zach Miller: He looked good to go earlier in the week, but has been limited in practice the last couple days. Who knows what that means for someone with two concussions this year. Stay away.

Michael Bush: Justin Fargas won’t go which upgrades Michael Bush. You won’t be starting him over Jason Snelling or any starting back for that matter, but if you were gambling on Arian Foster last week and are still playing this week, I’d make the switch.

Pierre Garcon: He’s out for this week.  Austin Collie should see a decent amount of looks with Wayne being covered by Revis.

Ahmad Bradshaw: He didn’t practice all week, but is listed as probable.  He grabbed 2 touchdowns last week, but of course isn’t a safe bet to do the same this week, but who is really? I’d feel good about starting him as a flex against a poor Panthers rush defense.

Derrick Ward: The Buc’s running back carousel keeps on a turnin’. Last week Ward seemed to take over the starting duties, but this week he was a late addition to the injury report. If he doesn’t go Caddy should get all the work and would make an ok play against a weak Saints’ rush defense.

Julius Jones: He is listed as questionable, but practiced fully on Friday. He probably ate a big Christmas breakfast. This takes Justin Forsett pretty far out of the startable category against a good Packers rush defense.  If he doesn’t go, that would push Forsett up into a flex possibility.

Eddie Royal: Not that it matters, but he is out. Royal has been a fantasy pauper this year. His status for next year is not looking good.

Fred Taylor: He had practiced in full early in the week, but then was limited on Thursday and Friday.  I was worried about him taking touches away from Maroney, but it’s looking less likely now.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: He did not practice and it looks like Brian Brohm will get the start.  This should give Fred Jackson a lot of work against a poor Falcons’ rush defense.

Michael Turner: For some reason he is listed as questionable, but they would have to be as batty as Al Davis to play him in a meaningless game. Get Jason Snelling into your lineup.

Brian Westbrook: He practiced all week and will play against the poor Denver run defense, but is on a snap count.  If Dusty Baker was coaching the Eagles I’d say start him, but in reality he needs to be on your bench.

Joe Nedney: He is out, and since he is a kicker this escaped me, so in case it did you as well and you own him there’s that.