Fantasy Football Advice

The best wide receivers usually stay that way, thankfully, but us fantasy footballers have to roster quite a few wide receivers which means we have to grab value late.  I have our first 45 receivers up here today.  We’ll be adding even more, but this post was getting to be too tome-like.  And I teach the ADD riddled youth of America and know not to go on too long.

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson 29 — The best receiver with the best situation.

2. Larry Fitzgerald 27 — He will make Leinart better.  He makes me better and I live on my couch.

3. Calvin Johnson 25 — Too young and talented not to rank high.  I think Stafford will pan out.

Tier 2

4. Vincent Jackson 27 — As long as he can keep from getting DUI’s, Rivers to Jackson will become annoying.

5. Reggie Wayne 31 — He’s rock steady.

6. Miles Austin 26 — I liked what I saw out of Austin last season and Romo continues to improve.

7. Brandon Marshall 26 — Not sure where he’ll end up, but he’s still young and very good and possibly a butt-head.

8. Roddy White 28 — He’s the main man in Atlanta.  Not much competition for catches.

Tier 3

9. Randy Moss 32 — He’s old, but has a few good years left.

10. DeSean Jackson 23 — He’s very young and very fast, but Maclin should steal from him.

11. Greg Jennings 27 — He’ll be living in Mr. Rodgers’ hood for years to come.

12. Marques Colston 27 — Great skills, but Brees spreads the ball around a little too much, bastard.

13. Santonio Holmes 26 — As long as Big Ben isn’t incarcerated he’ll be steady.

Tier 4

14. Michael Crabtree 23 –  He looked good even after couch sitting for part of the season.

15. Sidney Rice 24 — If his QB sitch was more stable he’d be higher.

16. Hakeem Nicks 22 – He looks poised to break out and continue to do so.

Tier 5

17. Steve Smith (CAR) 31 – How do I trust him? Dunno, but I know Moore does.

18. Wes Welker 29 – Too good too drop far because of his injury.

19. Steve Smith (NYG) 25 –This other Steve will go higher in ppr leagues.

20. Dwayne Bowe 26 – He has his troubles, but he is too good not to grab in the top 20.

21. Anquan Boldin 29 – Hard to put him this low, but he’s aging and been beat up.

Tier 6

22. Mike Sims-Walker 25 – He has the skill to thrill.

23. Percy Harvin 22 – His potential will be hard to live up to, but he has the potential to, uh, you know.

24. Chad Ochocinco 32 – Getting oldish, but he should continue to do what he do.

25. Pierre Garcon 24 – Looks like he Pipped Gonzalez.

26. Jeremy Maclin 22 – Young and on a pass first offense.

Tier 7

27. Robert Meachem 26 – Saints’ receivers are scary, but he showed his worth last season.

28. Kenny Britt 22 – He’s currently behind Gage and Washington, but not for long.

29. Eddie Royal 24 – McDaniels pulled a McDaniels on him, but he should turn it around.

30. Steve Breaston 27 – The #2 in Zona won’t be as productive as recent years, but he’s still good.

31. Devin Aromashodu 26 – His status next season isn’t a given, but I believe he’ll be the #1.

Tier 8

32. Braylon Edwards 27 – He is who he is.

33. Jerricho Cotchery 28 – More reliable than Edwards, but not as much upside (or the coinciding down side).

34. Hines Ward 34 – I love old, steady players in redrafts, but tough to foresee how long they’ll be around in dy-nastys.

35. Donald Driver 35 – Look up a centimeter.

Tier 9

36. Johnny Knox 23 – He will be the deep threat for Cutler and with Martz he should get his shots.

37. Mike Wallace 24 – He will be hit and miss with Ward in the picture, but his hits are usually TD’s.

38. Jacoby Jones 26 – Bringing Kevin Walter back hurts, but I think he’ll beat him out or up.

39. Malcolm Floyd 29 – He’s the #2 WR in a pass heavy offense.

Tier 10

40. Julian Edelman 24 – Tough to gauge his worth, but you know he’ll be good for the first half of next season.

41. Terrell Owens 36 – Depends on where he ends up, but he’s TOld.

42. Austin Collie 24 – If he’s in the slot and Peyton is throwing to him, well, you get it.

43. T.J. Houshmandzadeh 33 – Not even sure he should be this high, but Carroll’s offense will be pass happy.

44. Antonio Bryant 29 – I like him even if he is a freak.

45. Nate Burleson 29 – He should be happy to be across from Megatron.  Just hope he stays healthy.

Free agency keeps on keeping on, with some interesting fantasy relevant moves being made.  Well, interesting to me and other people who sit on twitter waiting for Adam Schefter to tweet something.

Chester Taylor: He is now officially a Monster of the Midway.  His role with the team is still difficult to decipher.  It may end up being difficult to decipher even around week 12.  Forte is seven years younger than him, but this won’t be a case of trying to keep their franchise running back happy.  Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith want to keep their jobs and they must win this season to do that.  If Chester Taylor is the back to do that, he will get the work.

Matt Forte: Didn’t I just talk about this guy? Well, let’s see his side of the argument.  He was injured last season and had a bad o-line.  If he comes into camp healthy and determined to keep his job, I think he will.  Taylor will play, no doubt, but Forte can hold him off and if he does he will still be worthwhile in a Martz run offense, but not top 20 worthwhile.

Greg Olsen: Still with the Bears? Boring! Ok, Olsen was poised to do big things last year with Cutler coming to town, but ended up blocking more often than not so Cutler could keep his head attached to his body.  Now he has the tight end killer Mike Martz leading the offense and a newly acquired blocking TE in Manumaleuna in his way.  Martz will have to get creative if he wants to use him.

Anquan Boldin: He is now a Raven.  He finally gets his wish! He’s been traded! But to a run first, run second and pass to the RB third, team.  Boldin is good.  If healthy, there really is no way to keep him from getting 80 receptions and a thousand yards even with the Ravens.  But health has been his problem.  He is a tough player and isn’t afraid to get hit, which is good, but not great for the ribs, grill, knees, etc…

Derrick Mason: With Boldin signed, the Ravens are saying Mason isn’t a priority.  It could be a way to sign him for less because I believe they need him, especially with Boldin’s injury history.  If he does stay with the Ravens he would take the #2 spot and not be as valuable in fantasy as he has been.

Brandon Marshall: He has been having fun with Paul Allen’s hover cars and robot maids, but still hasn’t signed with the Seahawks. There are rumors of him going to Cincinnati, but supposedly those are just to jack up the Seahawks’ bid.  With Burleson gone and Carroll coming in with a aerial attack, they really need him.

Thomas Jones: He is meeting with the Chiefs which means they don’t trust Jamaal Charles to be the every down back.  I don’t like this scenario as a Charles dynasty owner, but I’m also not going to chop off the head of my Todd Haley voodoo doll.  I also have a concern about JC’s durability.  Do I want someone taking away his goal line carries? Uh, no.  But I’m only omnipotent a quarter of the time.  I was fairly conservative in my JC projections and he was still 6th overall.  If Jones comes to town he will drop a little, but I still like him in the top 10.

Justin Fargas: Fargas was cut and will also meet with the Chiefs.  This, I like.  If the Chiefs are willing to sign Fargas over Jones it means they have a lot of faith in Charles.  Fargas is a hard runner and could take some goal line work away, but he’s not as skilled as Jones.  Both Fargas and Jones will have trouble having a respectable yards per carry average behind that Chiefs o-line.  Charles works in space and can make his own space, TJ and Huggy Jr. can’t.

Darren McFadden/Michael Bush: With Fargas gone it makes this backfield a little more fantasy friendly.  And I mean little.  I was high on McFadden last season, but he had trouble staying healthy and running between the tackles and holding onto the ball.  That’s not the best sign, but he has a ton of talent. He will get the shot to be the starter, but I could see Bush getting a lot of the between the tackle work.

Kevin Walter: After Boldin signed with the Ravens Walter lost leverage and just went back to his old team.  This hurts Jacoby Jones, but I still believe Jones can beat Walter out and have a good season.

David Carr: He signed with the 49ers. This is somewhat interesting because Shaun Hill isn’t the worst QB of all time.  I believe SF likes what they have seen of Carr before his injury (don’t ask me why) and aren’t 100% sold on Alex Smith.  I still like Smith for next year, but this is just a little disconcerting.

Leon Washington: There are rumors that teams might go after him since he only got a 2nd round tender.  The chances are slim that he’ll go anywhere, but it would be a big blow to the Jets and possibly move Shonn Greene up even more.

Kassim Osgood: His size makes him intriguing since he is going to a team full of small receivers. Oh, that team is Jacksonville.  He is a special teams ace and will still be in Jax.  He will have to battle Mike Thomas for the #2 receiver position and that isn’t like the #2 receiver on the Colts or Saints, this is David Garrard we’re talking about.  He has Charger height which makes him interesting, but in reality he’ll probably be on the sidelines when the Jags have the ball.

Aaron Kampman: He also signed with the Jaguars.  If he is healthy, switching back to the 4-3 and defensive end should help him in IDP leagues.  And the Jags need him.  They had a sorry 14 sacks last season.

Free Agency has begun!  A lot of rumors were shot into the world yesterday, but not too many of them stuck.  I’ll take you through some of the juicier rumors and the stickier innuendo:

Jake Delhomme: He has been released by the Panthers due to suckiness, but also for money concerns which are boring.  Now that he’s on his way out I feel some regret for constantly mocking him, but he just wigged out and lost all his ability to distinguish his receivers from the other team’s cornerbacks.  With his experience there is no doubt he’ll find a team to give him shelter, but it would be amazing if he were to turn his career around at this point.

Matt Moore: Delhomme’s departure has left the quarterback position for Moore.  This is pretty good news for Steve Smith since Delhomme was having trouble getting him the ball.  Moore isn’t going to be a fantasy starter in the Panther’s run first offense, but he could move his way up into backup status.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has signed with the Detroit Lions.  This is very good news for our man Calvin Johnson.  If Burleson can stay healthy (a Rex Ryan sized if) he will take a lot of heat off Megatron and give Stafford three good targets in Pettigrew, Burls and Megatron.

Chad Pennington: It was looking good for Pennington to head back into the crowded Dolphin’s quarterback club, but he wants a no trade clause that the Dolphins don’t want to give him.  Chad Henne has the starting QB job, and they also like Tyler Thigpen and Pat White.  Pennington doesn’t feel like a necessity.

Chester Taylor: He is visiting Halas Hall today (that’s where the Bears hold their frozen rituals). This visit is very bad news for Forte owners. It doesn’t have to be 3rd down for running backs to catch passes in Mike Martz’s system, but since Forte’s value looks like it will be as a receiver next season, a back like Taylor who can catch the ball will really cut into his numbers.

Julius Peppers: The Bears were busy last night, especially Lovie Smith who showed up on Peppers doorstep at midnight and asked if he could sleep over.  I think they played Madden.  Peppers and Smith will form a singing duo and headline a show in Vegas over the summer.  With Peppers going to Chicago for a visit it’s looking like he’ll probably end up there.  Bears management is looking to save their jobs.

Brandon Marshall: Most of the news coming out about Marshall is that teams don’t want to mess with him.  He has the stink of petulance, a murder trial, and greed, all over him.  The rumor mill has the Seahawks as a suitor right now.  Pete Carroll could really use him now that Burleson is a Lion.

Thomas Jones: No concrete rumors have been circulating.  Can rumors be concrete? Adam Schefter believes the Browns will look hard at Jones which makes a lot of sense.  The Browns don’t believe Jerome Harrison can be an every down back (that must be why they gave him 100 carries in the last three games!).  It’s too early to get into Jones’ impact with the Browns since I have no clue who he’ll be playing for next season.

Darren Sproles: After deciding not to tender the scraptastic back slash kick returner, the Chargers took a gander at their depth chart and saw it peppered with scrubtastic backs, so they rethought and gave Sproles a 1st and 3rd round tender.  But there are rumors that they are willing to trade him for less than his tender.  I’m guessing because they don’t want to pay him 7 million dollars.

Kevin Walter: For some reason he is getting a lot of buzz.  He had a great chance to make some noise in the Texans pass heavy offense last season, especially after TE Owen Daniels went down, but instead he did a whole lot of jack squat.  The Ravens seem to be interested.  Sounds like a recipe for bluh.

Antonio Cromartie: The Jets traded a third rounder for Cromartie.  The guy is a little soft (take a look at his fake attempt at tackling Shonn Greene in the playoffs), but he does have cover skills.  Him and Revis will make the Jets defense even better.  They have to be the first D/ST off the board in drafts next season.

Derrick Mason: I couldn’t see the Ravens letting him go, but there have been rumors flying around that have him going to New England or Miami.  These could be rumors to help Mason get 2 years out of the Ravens.

Anquan Boldin: See above, but add the Ravens.

Aaron Kampman: The Bears were looking hard at Kampman, but harder at Peppers.  It’s now looking like the Seahawks are the front runners in the Kampman race.  His injury may make his signing a little further off, but he’ll help a team.

The Super Bowl is near and as usual I’m ready for it way before it starts.  I’ve tried my best to stay away from the hype, but it will be hard come the weekend.  I really want to hear more about how Hank Baskett thinks his wife is hotter than Reggie Bush’s girlfriend.  And how many times Dwight Freeney was asked about his ankle at one setting (96 if you were wondering).  And I’m really glad that TMZ is there so I can know exactly what time players leave clubs.  So I’m hoping to catch up on It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia and maybe buy a fish tank instead of hearing more about Reggie Wayne’s neglected snake (no this isn’t going to be a Greg Oden post).

Here are some tasty morsels from around the league:

Brett Favre: After the Favre lost in the NFC championship game he made sure someone took a picture of his grotesque ankle so he could frame it, and I guess, place it over his mantle.  I am of two minds when it comes to these photos.  Yes, it’s amazing that he could play effectively with that deformed ankle, but at the same time, why do we need photos of it?  To prove how tough you are?  To show that if you hadn’t been hurting the outcome might have been different?  To elevate the Favrestique to God-like proportions?  Get over yourself Brett, you are great, but until you cut a finger off so you can play, keep your injury-porn to yourself.

Jay Cutler: It’s hard not to like Jay Cutler next season with Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator.  Cutler had a horrific year on many levels, but still ended up as the 12th best fantasy quarterback, ahead of the likes of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.  I don’t have faith in Cutler as a leader and I’m not betting on him to be the Bears’ savior, but Martz’s track record for making quarterbacks fantasy studs is too good.  He took a 34 year old Jon Kitna of the Detroit Lions and made him a 4,000 yard quarterback which gave Roy Williams over 1300 yards receiving and defensive back Mike Furrey over a thousand yards!  This bodes well for Hester, Aromashodu, Knox, and even Forte who will be catching a lot of passes, but it doesn’t bode well for young Mr. Greg Olsen.  Martz must have been diddled by a tight end in his formative years, because his offense is where TE’s go to die.

Dwight Freeney: He probably won’t practice all week and then he’ll test his ankle on Sunday to see if he can go.  I reckon we’ll see him play on third downs for as long as he can and then come out as his ankle slowly expands to Favre proportions.

Jerome Harrison: The Browns GM doesn’t think Harrison has the size to be the main back in Cleveland, but didn’t have any trouble with him being overused in the last few games because he was the Browns only decent player.  Maybe they should worry about getting a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and an upgrade at every position on the team before worrying about Harrison.  They could go out looking for a larger back or give James Davis more work to offset the toll on Harrison.  But I still think it’s Harrison’s job to lose and as long as he stays healthy he should get the bulk of the carries.

Jeremy Shockey: He practiced yesterday and looks like he will play and most probably injure himself again while celebrating a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 15.

Michael Vick: He says he is a top 10 quarterback and the Eagles say they want to keep him for next season.  Both lies.  Vick should believe he’s that good, but no way do the Eagles plan on keeping him as a high paid third string QB.  The Rams are looking like the front runner in the Mike Vick sweepst . . . uh, baby shower bingo.  Vick would have to be an upgrade over the craptastic law firm of Bulger, Boller and Null.  Even if he retains his erratic QB’ing skills his legs and ability to air it out will help free up Steven Jackson.

Brandon Marshall: Josh McDaniels tipped his hand when he sat Marshall down for the last game of the season.  Everybody and their dog knows that Marshall is out of there.  Couple that with his history of ass-like attitude, or assitude, they will have to give away a player who just had 101 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: He just had surgery on his knee because the swelling had to go down before plunging the scalpel in. All realistic timetables for his full recovery have him coming back mid-season even though he seems to think he’ll jump off the operating table and do cartwheels all the way home.  Trying to project next season’s playing time for Julian Edelman and Wes Welker will be tough.  If the team and Edelman are doing well, they will probably make sure Welker is 110% before letting him play, which would probably involve a time machine of sorts.

Matt Leinart: It doesn’t look like the Cardinals will look for another QB to compete for the starting job this off season.  Ken Whisenhunt has given Leinart the thumbs up and they will live and die with him.  Leinart flashed some ability in preseason and there is no way they will give him the same responsibilities as Warner.  With Wells showing signs of running back goodness and Boldin possibly being traded, we will see a much more balanced offense out of Arizona.  Whiz took a young quarterback in Roethlisberger far and could do the same with Leinart, but don’t expect huge numbers from him just because he plays for the Cardinals.

Clinton Portis: He still hasn’t been cleared to think too hard due to his last concussion.  Even if the Redskins keep him they will have to find some insurance because there is no way he plays a whole season.  Willis McGahee is probably looking pretty good to them about now.

The divisional round of the playoffs is nigh! Amazingly each game this weekend looks like it should be good.  Of course last week we may have thought the same thing and 3 out of 4 of the games were prescribed for insomnia by 3 out of 4 doctors.  I’m very much hoping that this weekend we have better games.  I’ve mentioned before that I’m not a betting man, or at least not a good one! And that’s because there are ten million factors that go into winning a NFL game and I only have time to factor in a million or so.  But I do have my hunches and I’ll give them to you if you ask nicely.  Ok, thanks.

The Cardinals showed they don’t need a defense or Anquan Boldin to win and that will probably be how they’ll have to do it once again to beat the Saints’ high powered offense.  I do believe rust can hurt all the bye week teams, especially if it’s in the axle of their team bus, but I also think the rest offsets the rust. Rest, rust, rust, rest.  I feel like both teams have similar defenses and similar offenses so this game will hinge on turnovers, special teams and all those things us fake footballers hate.  I’m taking the Saints in this game based on home field advantage and my affinity for the TV series The Saint starring Roger Moore.

In the late game the Ravens head to Indianapolis to face the Colts who they lost to earlier in the season 17-15, and 6 times in a row before that.  The Ravens have been playing very good defense lately and I expect this game to be close.  Unlike the early game these two teams are not similar and whoever imposes their will on the other will likely win.  The Ravens will want to run and continue to run until they get into the endzone.  The Colts will want to pass and continue to pass until, well, you get the picture.  The Colts are good at losing in the first round after a bye week, but I do think Peyton Manning is a better QB under pressure than those days.  This isn’t the Joseph Addai vs. Ray Rice game, it’s the Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco game.  I have the Colts.

TheSongOfTime is killing in our Sporting News Playoff Challenge with 2818 points, congrats! And amazingly I (Doctor Razzball) am in the lead over at our NFL.com Playoff Challenge.  Don’t forget to set your lineups for this weekend’s games!

All The NFL News That’s Fit To Link:

NFL Fanhouse previews all four of the games this weekend.

Second-String Fullback gives us their divisional round playoff picks while giving a tribute to the recently departed Jay Reatard.

Midwest Sports Fans gives Indianapolis Colts fans four reasons to worry for their matchup with the Ravens.

NFL.com’s Gil Brandt looks at some key matchups for the divisional round games. Gary Brackett against Ray Rice looks like a good one to watch this weekend.

Scout.com’s Ed Thompson asks Giants’ TE Kevin Boss and Bears’ LB Tim Shaw who they think will win this weekend.  Not that they can pick games better than the average schmo, but it is interesting to see their take.

Will Carrol of Football Outsiders takes an in-depth look at all the playoff teams’ injuries in his Black and Blue Report.

The National Football Post’s Brad Biggs doesn’t think Anquan Boldin will be able to go on Saturday.  That’s good news for those salary cap players who need the cheaper Breaston or Doucet to play.

Cold, Hard Football Facts lists their top 10 playoff games of the 2000’s.  The Colts comeback against the Patriots in the ‘06 AFC Championship game leads their list and I have to agree.

Sports Illustrated’s Jay Clemons give us his Top 10 Fantasy seasons for the 00’s.  Who do you have? Brady’s 50 TD’s or LT’s 31?

The Football Girl lists her top 10 fantasy football disappointments for the 2009 season.

The Deuce is loose and NFL Nation tells us why.

GQ’s Jason Fagone weaves the tale of Marvin Harrison’s alleged crimes.  If the longest article you’ve ever read was on Twitter be sure to take your 5 hour energy drink before diving in.

The Fifth Down takes a look at what NFL players had the most value this season, literally. I’m voting for Mr. Ray Rice.

Ed Reed killed Reggie Wayne’s python when they were in college and somehow lived to tell about it.

Jerome Bettis believes Bill Cowher is holding out for Tom Coughlin’s job.