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When is it time to officially Stop Drafting Travis Kelce?

No, this analysis isn’t all about Travis Kelce, but it basically is since we know we are all thinking it. If you have been reading this series before for running back (click here for RB article) and wide receivers (click here for WR article) you know the drill.

1. The years sampled were 2011-2020 for the tight end position only
2. The scoring format used for this analysis is full PPR
3. The analysis benchmark we will be discussing today is 50 targets. Every tight end ages 21-37 had to have at least 50 targets to qualify
4. When conducting the analysis, it was important to have a baseline for targets as many tight ends who don’t make it typically only play 3-4 years in their early 20s…..yada yada yada we used the same veribage from the previous articles so go check them out. 

Tight End Age Analysis

Like we always promise we will give you the high-level data first and you can take it for what it is worth. The first chart will includes the following:

Age – The tight end (TE) age for that season
Total TEs – Total tight ends (TE) who played at that age over that past 10 years
Total TEs 50 – The number of tight ends who hit 50 targets in a season
% who hit 50 – This is the percentage of tight ends who played at that age who received 50 or more targets in that season at that age
Total Points and PPG – These are the points and PPG in full PPR that these tight ends had at that age on average who hit 50 targets in a season

AGETotal TEsTotal TEs 50% who hit 50Average of PointsAverage of PPG
219111.10%94.75.9
22431125.60%132.19
231162118.10%125.99.1
241632716.60%122.38.5
251454229.00%142.310
261393122.30%145.99.9
271063129.20%150.410
28882730.70%140.39.5
29762127.60%141.89.5
30521426.90%16310.6
31411536.60%158.210.4
32251144.00%135.99.4
3319947.40%137.28.7
3413538.50%145.29.8
358450.00%16411.3
363266.70%190.913
3744100.00%143.99

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Hey y’all.  Please note that where fantasy position ranks are cited: they were pulled from www.pro-football-reference.com’s NFL Fantasy Rankings. Also note that these are non-PPR rankings.  This list only includes Un-Restricted Free Agents (UFAs), it does not include Exclusive Rights Free Agents (ERFAs) or Antonio Brown (We can rank Tony once we see if his QB is going to be future HOFer Big Ben or future Gym Teacher Blake Bortles or someone in between, but don’t think either spot or any in between really changes his value much).

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Nice work by Greg Smith (@gregsauce) to be the first tout to be in double digits in a while with a 10. The readers took it on the chin last week with McCrackalax11’s 7 the best of a struggling bunch. To urge you to try out Rudy’s Pigskinonator I’m going to feature it’s responses to props this week. You need the help, trust me. Rudy’s projections are smashing as per usual. Put them to the test in THIS WEEK’S PROPS.

Which TE scores more PPR points on Saturday?

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Hey everyone, and welcome back to another Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em post! I hope everyone had a great and safe Thanksgiving, so let’s break down Week 12!

Let’s get to it!

*Note* – My Week 12 Rankings can be found here, and be sure to check out Rudy’s projections for this week here!

*Note* – I won’t be including the “studs” in any of my “Start” columns. You should always start Aaron Rodgers, Todd Gurley, or Antonio Brown!

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Me before every draft this year. I’m not invited back. I’ll admit it. My first love is fantasy baseball. But over the past few years fantasy football has become my mistress. Now usually I don’t boast or brag, but today is different — usually in late August/early September, I’ve got baseball playoffs on the brain. That’s still the case this year (#humblebrag) but there’s just something in this New Jersey air that’s making me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

Maybe it’s because I’m going to the Giants/Jaguars game this Sunday. Maybe it’s because last year the Giants were out of contention by week 5. Or maybe, it’s because the Giants parlayed that 3-13 record last year into their second overall pick of Saquon Barkley. I haven’t been this excited about a Giants running back since Brandon Jacobs that one time. Or maybe it’s the air pollution…

Now to get into what you’re really here for. Every Tuesday I’ll be giving you the straight dirt on who you need to get your twisted, gnarled, dirty football fingers on. Maybe there’s backup running back who is due for some added snaps because the starter is just a jabroni. Maybe there’s a third string wide receiver who is about to face the Colts porous defense and you need someone who can reach for that brass ring. Or maybe there’s just someone with a dope name who I just can’t ignore any longer (Hi JuJu!) Whatever the case may be — every Tuesday you need to come here as you turn your attention to laying the smacketh down on your next opponent.

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Now that my little Fantasy Football science experiment is over I’m going to change things up a little bit. You wouldn’t believe all the hate mail I got in the past couple of weeks. It seems my ESPN accounts have been locked out and someone even toilet papered my front yard. Enough is enough. Going forward I’m just going to give you my top six picks for the week. The only rule for a pick is that a player cannot be considered a stud to be eligible. Recommending Antonio Brown helps no one.

Before we get started let’s quickly see how I did last week…

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Last week I promised that I would dedicate the following week to subjecting myself to the save level of scrutiny I have spent the past two weeks bestowing upon the author of ESPN’s weekly fantasy football Love/Hate article. Well fast forward to today and it is now next week. You like how I did that. I didn’t need a flux capacitor, 88 MPH or 1.21 gigawatts to launch us into the future. Eat your heart out Doc. On a related note, did you hear they are doing a remake of Back To The Future with Will Smith’s son as Marty McFly. Donald Trump will be playing Biff Tannen.

Well I guess it’s time to see just how much I am going to ridicule myself. Without further adieu…

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My Week 4 recommendations went much better than week 3. I said Deshaun Watson would score “25+ points” and he put up 33. I told you to start James White over Mike Gillislee for his PPR contributions and he scored 14 to Gillislee’s 4. I told you to not even look at Marshawn Lynch and he only scored 1 fantasy point. I even said this about a certain Dolphins QB: “I recommended him last week against the Jets secondary and he laid an 11.7 fantasy point egg on my face! Well, now he’s facing an equally bad Saints secondary who have allowed the second-most passing yards to opposing QBs this year. If _____ fails to capitalize again this year you shan’t see his name again!” As promised — that Dolphins quarterback is He-Who-Shan’t-Be-Named!

Here were a few more of my solid start suggestions from Week 4:

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Welcome to another edition of Jay’s (hey, that’s me!) Review of all things Week 2. Except for Monday Night Football, just as bad as Thursday Night Football, but now without Chris Berman. So slightly better. Maybe. Who knows actually? I’m just waiting for when the NFL figures out how to have a game on every night and additionally draw out the NFL Draft for entire offseason. You think it might not happen, but Roger Goodell is already telling Robert Kraft to hold his beer (usually it’s his penis). So yeah, that was basically me saying that MNF is too late for this existential journey, maaaan. And sure, what I just typed may have come off as sassy, but that’s only because MB RSVP’d (so many acronyms, so little time!) probably the best GIF from Week 2 with the Lynch Safety Dance. You probably only understood that reference if you’re a member of AARP, but hey, on the bright side, more acronym dropping. So instead, I have chosen Todd Gurley to shine my light upon with the utmost care and love. Which is what I also refer to as a boner. And behold above, if that GIF doesn’t turn you on, I don’t want to be off. I feel like this could be the new Dyson’s vacuum cleaner slogan. Or the first last line I’ll ever say to a first last date. The possibilities are endless, just like a world with a functioning Todd Gurley. Is he back? (Maybe?) Was he ever gone? (Yeah.) (Vague) Answers to these questions and your usual daily allotment of hot takes, yokes (jokes in egg form, or I guess I could have just corrected the typo instead of typing this long sentence out… wait, am I still typing?), and your Week 2 Top Plays in GIF form are all after the jump!

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We are here today to point out the differences between the Razzball Rankings (which finished Top-3 in 2016) and those that ESPN has released to the masses. Haha, just kidding. You know, it used to be that Matthew Berry, Tristan Cockraft (lovely human being, totally serious. Met him at the LABR party down in Arizona Spring Training, probably one of the nicest guys in the industry along with Eno Sarris), and Eric Karabell submitted their rankings for the Accuracy Challenge that our friends over at FantasyPros host… After both Berry finishing in the lower 80’s back in 2015 and then Karabell finishing in the same area-ish (“ish” because I can’t remember exactly ) last season, they have yet to be seen this season putting their rankings to the test. So while I used to be able to compare our rankings to what the “industry” had made “standard” (parenthesis for sarcasm I suppose), the first thing you’ll notice with our yearly “Rankings Versus” series is that there won’t be any Matthew Berry. Whether that’s ultimately a good or bad thing, I’ll let you decide. Because, hey, I’m just that kind of guy. But don’t worry! Instead, we’ll be taking a look at how our “industry” leading rankings stack against the ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings), and last season’s top “Accuracy Expert” (no sarcasm), Dalton Del Don from Yahoo! (do I have to yell it every time? Geez, that gets old real fast…) Sports, not to be confused with “Yoohoo! Sports”, which I do all the time. Then again, I usually confuse most things with chocolate drinks. Totally normal.

So be sure to check out our 2017 Fantasy Football Rankings, Auction Values, and our very own Cheat Sheet for any context you may need. I’d say that context needs more chocolate drink to be honest…

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