Fantasy Football Advice

In July and August we were so young and unspoiled.  Then, September rolled around and we could barely contain our naughty parts.  But the season brought with it some harsh realities.  One being that you have no control of what happens on the field!  Now, it’s January; cold and dark and even if you won your league, there were times this season you doubted who you were, questioned your faith, and felt the taint of bad decisions. Well, today we’re going to take a look back on the 2009 season without malice or bias. Oh, wait, WITH malice and bias, a lot of it.  We’ll use the standard ESPN scoring for the official final rankings and see where we had them in preseason and then make excuses as to why we were wrong.

This was the year of the quarterback. A total of 10 QB’s had over 4,000 yards which smashes the record of 7 in 2007.  I’m sure this has nothing to do with new rules that cart quarterbacks around in Pope Mobiles.

1. Aaron Rodgers: ARodg was sacked over and over until he thought he was a defective weeble.  But he took his lumps and the Pack Attack finally turned things around.  His 3rd down prowess was unreal and his scrambling ability boosted his stats once again with 5 rushing touchdowns.  Now, if he could just stop doing that Freddy Mitchell championship belt move.  Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections:  4000/29/13 – 2/125, Final Numbers:  4434/30/7 — 5/316

2. Drew Brees: He is by far the most reliable QB year to year for fantasy right now.  I don’t usually recommend taking a QB in the first round, and I probably never will, but I did give this little tidbit, “Will Rivers or Rodgers give you comparable numbers in the 3rd or early 4th round?  Maybe, possibly, and could be, but will Brees give you top 5 overall fantasy numbers? I think so.” And that’s me quoting me, stealing from Grey. Rodgers did give you the numbers so it was worth waiting on him, but Brees is not going to disappoint.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  4650/36/14, Final Numbers:  4388/34/11 — 2/33

3. Brett Favre: Um, yeah, Favre wasn’t around when I made the projections, but I’m not going to blow smoke up your arse and tell you we’re going to a Charlie Weis welcome to Kansas City BBQ party.  My reaction to the signing was, “This should help most of the fantasy prospects of the Vikings, at least until Brett’s arm flops off his torso and shimmies down a Metrodome drainage pipe.”  His arm stayed attached and he forgot how to throw interceptions.  His season really was nothing short of miraculous. Preseason Rank DNR,  Final Numbers:  4202/33/7

4. Peyton Manning: It’s Peyton Manning, what can I say.  The guy is too good to be real.  If there were Stepford Quarterbacks he would be their leader. He’s not slowing down.  He threw a few more picks than we are used to, but he also had his most attempts since ‘02.  This all came after Anthony Gonzalez went out early in the first game of the season. He took two green receivers in Collie and Garcon and made them a cool shade of (whatever color denotes good). Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections:  4300/32/9, Final Numbers:  4500/33/16

5. Matt Schaub: I invited Schaub to a couple of my teams and was glad to have him at my party.  He led the league in yardage, which was partially due to the Texans anemic running game/Kubiakian mind games, but also due to Schaub’s ability.  He lost Owen Daniels which hurt, but Andre Johnson picked up the slack.  If the Texans get Daniels back and maybe grab another WR in free agency, Schaub will be worth a top pick (and even if they don’t do those things). Preseason Rank #9, 2009 Projections:  3550/26/12, Final Numbers:  4770/29/15

6. Tony Romo: I wrote back in the day, “He has his BFF Witten, a good receiver in Roy (I play offense) Williams, a deep threat in Miles Austin and good running backs, with good hands.  A great season in Big D isn’t a lock, but Romo has the skill and the team to shut up his detractors.”  Looking back I have two regrets, using the term BFF and calling Roy Williams good.  Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections:  4000/26/14 – 1/50, Final Numbers:  4483/26/9 — 1/105

7. Tom Brady: Lady and gentlemen, your comeback player of the year!  Huh?  I think a comeback player of the year should be someone you expect to be in jail, a mental institution, or an infirmary instead of scoring touchdowns (think Cedric Benson, Vince Young or Cadillac Williams).  I expected a lot more from Brady this year.  Wes Welker’s injury early in the season didn’t help, but the Patriots never really hit on all cylinders.  Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  4550/35/13, Final Numbers:  4398/28/13 — 1/44

8. Philip Rivers: Rivers did about what I expected of him, but LT vultured a few of his touchdowns while pretty much being horrid otherwise.  Rivers looks like my 6 year old nephew throwing the ball, but unlike my nephew he doesn’t hit himself in the head with the ball.  Preseason Rank #4, 2009 Projections:  4150/34/13, Final Numbers:  4254/28/9 — 1/50

9. Ben Roethlisberger: For an ADP of around 100 Big Ben was a good value pick.  This year was the year of the quarterback when 4300 yards and 26 TDs gets you ninth in the fantasy books.  I didn’t foresee the Steelers turning to a throw first attitude and as soon as Big Ben starts moving up the draft board next year, the Stillers will probably get back to running first and second and throwing third. Preseason Rank #14, 2009 Projections:  3450/21/14 — 1/50, Final Numbers:  4328/26/12 — 2/82

10. Donovan McNabb: If Donovan hadn’t missed a couple games with broken ribs, he would have lifted his numbers above my projections, but still wouldn’t have gotten to the 6th best fantasy QB.  Like I said, the competition was fierce this year.  I thought we had gotten rid of Favre!  McNabb was up and down as usual, but he is still solid and his young receivers should keep him in the fantasy cash monies for a few more years.  Preseason Rank #6, 2009 Projections:  3750/25/12 – 1/125, Final Numbers:  3553/22/10 — 2/140

It’s a sad time of the year. The fantasy season is winding down, but don’t think Razzball headquarters is winding down with it. We’re just gearing up! You need to get geared up yourself because we’re not going to coast through the offseason.  Look for post season analysis of the 2009 season, playoff contests, NFL draft coverage, keeper rankings and posts, team previews, mock drafts, redraft rankings and cheat sheets, and other awesomeness that gets conjured during some heated conversations around the daiquiri cooler.

Here are a few of my thoughts from Sunday’s games:

Ben Roethlisberger: Looks like he decided that the bell was tolling for the Steelers and that he needed to get going. Over 500 yards passing, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions is, well, unbelievable. He was probably on some benches going against the Packers’ pass defense, but not on as many benches as our next contestant!

Jerome Harrison: Ok, one of Razzball’s favorites all year got Mandingus’d.  We didn’t know who would get the carries against a juicy Chiefs run defense, so of course he goes off record book style.  Mangini should be fired for the way he has handled Harrison. First he sticks with the old and ineffective Jamal Lewis, then in week 4, thankfully Lewis has to sit out a game due to decrepitness and Harrison goes off for 152 total yards.  So finally, Mangini will see the error of his ways!  Wait, no, he’s an idiot.  Jamal Lewis retains his job!  Now our story slows down to a plodding, Jamal Lewis pace, filled with touchdownless games, under 4 yards a carry averages and Harrison being sent to the inactive dog house, but finally Lewis goes on IR and finally, finally, it’s Harrison time! Wait, no, Chris Jennings? Gotta pound that rock down the gut of the opponent, can’t run around them! Ok, I may have purged myself.  Next week, Oakland at home; 30 carries for Lawrence Vickers?

Arian Foster: I was worried that maybe Foster would do something wrong and get Kubiak’d, but the matchup was sooooo good! Well, 2 carries in, Foster fumbles and then doesn’t sniff the ball the rest of the game.  It wasn’t like Foster was running with the ball balanced on his helmet!  Give the guy a chance.  Kubiaks zone blocking 29th ranked rushing offense couldn’t get much worse! It’s actually probably good that Foster doesn’t become a star, some idiot would probably make a big Arian Nation sign.

Steve Smith: He caught 9 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown. He’s better with Moore in there and gets the Giants next week. You can now start him with some confidence in week 16! And if you missed his post-game interview with Andrea Kramer you need to click back where the link is all hyper, kind of like him.

Philip Rivers: I haven’t written much about him as he just keeps having good game after good game.  He gets to showcase his skills on Christmas Day against Tennessee.  He should give his fantasy owners a few touchdowns wrapped in the arms of Gates, VJax, etc…

Jay Cutler: I think with his showing against Baltimore we can officially say that Cutler is a loser.

Calvin Johnson: Megatron is now looking more like a Go-bot.  Culpepper has no arm and underthrew him often.  He is an amazing talent and I kept holding out hope that his talent would outgain his quarterback, but it just hasn’t happened.  He will be high on my rankings next year no matter.

Beanie Wells: It took most of the season, but Beanie has finally taken over as the lead back.  he has two amazing TD runs this year, bouncing off opponents Chris Berman style.  For some reason Hightower got a 1 yard touchdown which should have gone to Beanie.  I can’t believe Tim could be so selfish.

Jamaal Charles: He will be on the Monday wrap up rain or shine until the season is over and then I’m sure he’ll win a post season Razzball award or two, be in our keeper posts and slotted high in our rankings.  Charles will continue to be in charge until he does an ill conceived reality show called Jamaal Charles is 46 . . . and pregnant.

Chris Johnson: He’s still on pace to break Marshall Faulk’s yards from scrimmage record, but I always thought scrimmages didn’t count.  Anyway, he had another ho hum game with 159 total yards, but couldn’t find the endzone.  I don’t think he was looking in the right places. I always do that with my keys.

Randy Moss: He was targeted often and had 5 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown.  Moss had his boxers in a bunch and if you own him and are in your fantasy championship you hope they haven’t been unbunched yet.

Andre Johnson: For some reason Dre, as I like to call him, is still not considered in the top 3 WR debate by some moronic sports writers. He’s making it pretty hard to ignore him right now.

Michael Turner: He started. He ran. He sat. I’m thinking the Falcons’ medical staff need to take some refresher courses in sports medicine.

Steven Jackson: With the flu, a herniated disc, and extra heavy hair, SJax showed how badass he is by going for 123 total yards. The guy has officially ripped “The Beast” title away from Marshawn Lynch’s hands.

Joshua Cribbs: In his two 100 yard kickoff return touchdowns the Chiefs looked like they were running through the Wizard of Oz poppy field. Hopefully if you put him in as your #3 receiver you get credit for his special teams touchdowns, because he didn’t do much on offense.  He’s way too erratic to use in non return yardage leagues, especially if you are in the finals.

If you’ve been eliminated from the playoffs (i.e. robbed by cheaters) then come on over and join the Razzball writers in our Sporting News Playoff league, password Schmohawk.

Check out some of our contest prizes.  You could win one here!

We’ve got a close race in the RCL overall standings. It should go down to the wire!

Editors note: I’d like to thank Jen for joining the Razzball team.  We might have to take the pinball machine out of the women’s bathroom at Razzball headquarters! Follow her insightful twitter comments here.

QB: START: Joe Flacco (v. DET): I know, he’s been an overall fantasy disappointment the last few weeks, especially given his great start to the season. His three interceptions in primetime Monday night were atrocious, along with penalties galore, made for an ugly performance. But the Ravens, especially Flacco, have the chance to redeem themselves this week with a matchup against a weak Detroit defense. With Flacco most likely eager to right all his wrongs from Monday night, and with the Ravens trying to stay in playoff contention, expect him to have a much better showing this week against the Lions.

Other starts: Ben Roethlisberger (@CLE), Vince Young (@StL), Kurt Warner (v. SF), Philip Rivers (@DAL), Tony Romo (v.SD), David Garrard (v.MIA), Chad Henne (@JAX)

SIT: Jay Cutler (v. GB): This is probably obvious, but I would like to essentially nip in the bud anyone’s idea of possibly thinking about starting him after not throwing picks last week. Chances are, you have a better option available for picking up. Keep in mind that last week, Cutler played the lowly Rams, and the overall game plan was very cautious, mostly looking to Forte and the run in the red zone (because we know Jay Cutler is the King of the Red Zone Interception). Against a Green Bay defense who played quite well against Baltimore and held the running game in check and pulled down three picks, an unreliable Cutler is not a smart start.

SIT: Whoever is the QB on Sunday for the Falcons (most likely Matt Ryan): Plainly and simply, Sunday will not be a great situation for whichever quarterback is under center. If it is Matt Ryan, there are reports out saying that his turf toe is not completely healed, and that he will probably not be playing at his best if and when going against the Saints. With the Saints narrowly avoiding devastating embarrassment last week against the Redskins, I’m sure they will not want to sweat another one out like that again this week. Already a borderline start just simply based on injury, with Roddy White also not at 100%, and a once-strong running game down the tubes, the Saints look that much closer to the perfect season. And, if Chris Redman starts, there’s not much I need to write here that should deter you from starting him. Quite frankly,  the thought should have never crossed your mind. Overall, the QB position (whoever has it) this week for the Falcons should be on your bench.

Other sits: Matt Moore (@NE), Kyle Orton (@IND)

RB: START: Kevin Smith (@BAL): While Kevin Smith is generally productive every week, this looks like it could be a particularly productive week for him. Although Baltimore does have a stout defense, they have been known to give up a few rushing yards here and there. Plus, with Matthew Stafford sitting this one out, the more cautious approach with Culpepper at QB would be to hand off to Smith as much as possible.

START: Fred Jackson (@KC): Since FJax has officially moved ahead of Marshawn Lynch on the Buffalo depth chart, he is primed to have a great game for two reasons: 1)Kansas City’s defense, which is ranked 31st in the league and 2) a poor performance against the Jets last week, which should motivate him to bring his A game to keep his new starting spot. This game in general should be very heavy on the run, with both teams notorious for having porous rushing defenses and relatively unproven quarterbacks. So, in that case, also start Jamaal Charles (who is not on the KC injury report).

START: LaDainian Tomlinson (@DAL): Last week, the Cowboys faced a Giants’ running game that was depleted with injuries and had been struggling for weeks. Brandon Jacobs, who has been a disappointment to fantasy owners this season, caught and ran for the longest reception of his career, scored 2 TDs, and had many productive runs. Ahmad Bradshaw, who has two sprained ankles and cracked bones in his feet, even managed to grab some first downs against a Cowboys defense that typically falls short in the twelfth month of the year. That all being said, I think LT is primed for a good week this week.

Other starts: Chris Johnson (duh! @StL) , Thomas Jones (@TB),  Laurence Maroney (v.CAR), Maurice-Jones Drew (v. MIA), Quinton Ganther (@OAK)

SIT: Brandon Jacobs (v.PHI): I know I just praised his Week 13 performance, but it was just that; in Week 13. Do not expect that explosive of a performance again against Philadelphia. While chances are he will get a decent amount of carries, what he will do with them will probably not be much. Last time the Giants played the Eagles was a total disaster, and Kevin Gilbride, Giants’ offensive coordinator, rarely calls appropriate plays for what Jacobs is good at and has been calling too many passing plays. Overall, it will probably be a mediocre performance for Jacobs at best on Sunday night.

Other sits: Cedric Benson (@MIN), Julius Jones (v.HOU), Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward (v.NYJ)

WR: START: DeSean Jackson (@NYG): Though this is obvious, some may be concerned with Jackson’s possible post-concussion symptoms. He has assured that he is fine and playing on Sunday (although keep an eye for any change just to be safe). While generally, the Giants do cover him with the very capable Corey Webster, the rest of the Giants secondary probably will not do as good a job covering him, especially with safety C.C. Brown occasionally having to take on that task. Last time the Giants played the Eagles, C.C. Brown was basically responsible for the blown coverage on every receiving touchdown, and later publicly blamed himself for it. Plus, if the Giants defend against the run as well as they did against the Cowboys last week, chances are McNabb will have to pass. So, have no worries about starting DJax.

START: Santonio Holmes (@CLE): With Hines Ward likely out, and no defenders on the secondary for Cleveland to speak of, Santonio stands to get targeted quite a bit Thursday night. He should, by default (if he’s not already) become the Steelers’ #1 WR. This also increases the value of Mike Wallace, particularly as a WR3 in deep leagues or as a flex.

START: Pierre Garcon (v.DEN): Chances are, Champ Bailey will have his work cut out for him with Reggie Wayne. With Garcon being targeted so frequently last week against the Titans, look for that again. Austin Collie also becomes a viable starter as well.

Other starts: Jeremy Maclin (@NYG), Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (v.SF), Robert Meacham/Marques Colston (@ATL), Chris Chambers (@BUF), Terrell Owens (v. KC),

SIT: The Seahawks WRs (Burleson and Houshmanzadeh): With Matt Hasselbeck’s value on the decline, and the emergence of Justin Forsett in the running game, the Seattle receivers have not been having great weeks as of late. The Texans have also emerged as a somewhat strong defense, and are in in the Top 15 as far as guarding fantasy WRs as well as pass rush. Therefore, don’t expect big days from Nate Burleson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

SIT: Antonio Bryant (v. NYJ): Two words: Darrelle Revis.

Other sits: Devin Hester/Earl Bennett (v. GB),  Santana Moss (@OAK)

TE: START: Todd Heap: With majority of Joe Flacco’s targets going toward Heap, combined with the amount of drops and offensive pass interference calls from some of his other WRs, the Ravens will probably send the ball Heap’s way again against the Lions.

Other TE starts: Vernon Davis (@ARI), Brent Celek (@NYG), Kellen Winslow (v.NYJ)

SIT: Greg Olsen (v.GB): I think that you probably realize that by now, I’m very down on the Bears. With Cutler and Forte both struggling, don’t expect much to go on, especially against Green Bay with the Packers wanting a wild card spot and playing a division rival. Olson has been rendered ineffective in many a game this season despite being Cutler’s favorite target. Expect this week to be no different.

DEF: START: NYJ (@TB): With Josh Freeman’s interception filled game last week, expect a strong Jets’ secondary to dismantle Freeman and Tampa Bay.

START: TEN (@StL): Again, probably does not require much of an explanation. Kyle Boller is awful, and with the re-emergence of the Titans in general and the return of their cornerbacks, expect low scoring from the Rams and the opportunity for interceptions.

SIT: SD (@DAL): Tony Romo had a strong game against the Giants last week, put up a lot of points, but still the Cowboys lost. Expect a strong showing from Romo again and expect that this game will probably be a shootout.

Ben Roethlisberger talked to Coach Tomlin and informed him he might want to be able to tell his grand kids about winning Super Bowls instead of drooling on them, so he’s listed as questionable, but I have a feeling he’ll end up playing anyway.  The alternative is Dennis Dixon going up against the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.  Big Ben might sacrifice himself for Dixon.  I’ll be checking his hands for stigmata.

EDIT: Adam Schefter is reporting that Ben is out and Dennis Dixon will get the start. Downgrade your Steeler receivers and keep Mendenhall about where you had him before.  He’ll get a lot of looks, but the Steelers won’t have many chances near the endzone.

Anthony Gonzalez: I picked him back up last week with some sketchy reports that he might return soon, but dropped him again with some actual reports of him not practicing.  I’m just here to remind you to leave him in the free agent pool to prune.

Julius Jones: He is still hurting with a bruised lung.  I’m not a real doctor, I just play one on the internet, but that sounds not too fun to have when slamming against a defensive line.  He has been limited in practice and will be a game time decision.  We’ll have all the gametime decisions up in the comments of Sunday’s post so check them out and if Jones doesn’t go Forsett will be a great play.  Even if he does go Forsett will be worthwhile in ppr leagues.

Sammy Morris: He has been limited in practice and has been put into the Patriots’ Relocation Program and we won’t really know what his role will be going forward. I think Maroney has a pretty firm grip on the job right now.  Knowing Bill Belichick like I do, I have no idea what he’ll do.  Morris can play himself back into a bigger role, but I think Maroney can hold him off.

Brandon Pettigrew: He is done for the season.  And I thought Lord Voldermort would show pity on him and heal his knee once he was reconstituted. Oh well.  He is good and will be worth drafting next year if his knee heals well.

Bernard Berrian: He finally looks like his hamstring might be healed.  He has been on the bottom of the wide receiver barrel in Minnesota this season, but if he’s healthy look for Favre to try to get him going before the playoffs.

Steven Jackson: SJax hasn’t practiced this week due to back spasms and will be a game time decision.  If he doesn’t play there is a good chance the Rams will forfeit the game. Or they may have to start Kenneth “Trent” Darby which might be the same as forfeiting.  If SJax goes you start him.  If he doesn’t and you are in desperate need you can throw Darby into the wishing well and wish that he turns into SJax.

Jerious Norwood: Norwood will probably be eased back into his role and by the time he’s ready to go, Michael Turner should also be ready to go.  If Turner doesn’t go on Sunday I fully expect Snelling to be the main man.

Kurt Warner: He has practiced in full and should go against a still fairly weak Tennessee secondary.  I would get him into your lineup.  Maybe to play it safe you should grab Leinart and have him ready to go if the old man can’t get out of bed.

Cedric Benson: He has been limited all week and will be yet another game time decision.  My game time decisions usually revolve around which pizza place to order from. Gigio’s usually wins.  But I don’t know who wins this one.  I know who Bernard Scott owners are rooting for.

Steve Slaton: For some reason Chris Brown is now splitting time with Steve Slaton.  Kubiak is mad I say, mad!  Slaton is still the better back and is worth a flex option especially in ppr, but his chances of getting shut out are much better with his lack of touches. And I guess Ryan Moats was arrested for trying to save a kitten from a tree.

DeAngelo Hall: Hall is out against the pass happy Eagles which is good news for DMac, DJax, JMac and any other player whose name is shortenable.

Matthew Stafford just wrote a story he’ll be able to tell his grand kids.  Of course he won’t say it was against Cleveland, but still, he became the youngest quarterback to ever throw for 5 touchdowns in a game and he did it with a bad wing!  I don’t see Stafford now becoming a fantasy god with the schedule he has, but he’s going to keep Megatron relevant and hopefully make Detroit a contender at some point.

Mark Sanchez: Another rookie quarterback took the field on Sunday, but instead of giving his fans hope for a wonderful future he gave each one of them metaphorical Dirty Sanchez.

Bernard Scott: He ended up with a decent game in Oakland, helped by a 61 yard run.  I’d hold onto him as long as you can in case Benson reinjures himself.  His schedule is too good to lose him because you got nervous that you needed a third tight end to round out your team. (more…)