Fantasy Football Advice

The best wide receivers usually stay that way, thankfully, but us fantasy footballers have to roster quite a few wide receivers which means we have to grab value late.  I have our first 45 receivers up here today.  We’ll be adding even more, but this post was getting to be too tome-like.  And I teach the ADD riddled youth of America and know not to go on too long.

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson 29 — The best receiver with the best situation.

2. Larry Fitzgerald 27 — He will make Leinart better.  He makes me better and I live on my couch.

3. Calvin Johnson 25 — Too young and talented not to rank high.  I think Stafford will pan out.

Tier 2

4. Vincent Jackson 27 — As long as he can keep from getting DUI’s, Rivers to Jackson will become annoying.

5. Reggie Wayne 31 — He’s rock steady.

6. Miles Austin 26 — I liked what I saw out of Austin last season and Romo continues to improve.

7. Brandon Marshall 26 — Not sure where he’ll end up, but he’s still young and very good and possibly a butt-head.

8. Roddy White 28 — He’s the main man in Atlanta.  Not much competition for catches.

Tier 3

9. Randy Moss 32 — He’s old, but has a few good years left.

10. DeSean Jackson 23 — He’s very young and very fast, but Maclin should steal from him.

11. Greg Jennings 27 — He’ll be living in Mr. Rodgers’ hood for years to come.

12. Marques Colston 27 — Great skills, but Brees spreads the ball around a little too much, bastard.

13. Santonio Holmes 26 — As long as Big Ben isn’t incarcerated he’ll be steady.

Tier 4

14. Michael Crabtree 23 –  He looked good even after couch sitting for part of the season.

15. Sidney Rice 24 — If his QB sitch was more stable he’d be higher.

16. Hakeem Nicks 22 – He looks poised to break out and continue to do so.

Tier 5

17. Steve Smith (CAR) 31 – How do I trust him? Dunno, but I know Moore does.

18. Wes Welker 29 – Too good too drop far because of his injury.

19. Steve Smith (NYG) 25 –This other Steve will go higher in ppr leagues.

20. Dwayne Bowe 26 – He has his troubles, but he is too good not to grab in the top 20.

21. Anquan Boldin 29 – Hard to put him this low, but he’s aging and been beat up.

Tier 6

22. Mike Sims-Walker 25 – He has the skill to thrill.

23. Percy Harvin 22 – His potential will be hard to live up to, but he has the potential to, uh, you know.

24. Chad Ochocinco 32 – Getting oldish, but he should continue to do what he do.

25. Pierre Garcon 24 – Looks like he Pipped Gonzalez.

26. Jeremy Maclin 22 – Young and on a pass first offense.

Tier 7

27. Robert Meachem 26 – Saints’ receivers are scary, but he showed his worth last season.

28. Kenny Britt 22 – He’s currently behind Gage and Washington, but not for long.

29. Eddie Royal 24 – McDaniels pulled a McDaniels on him, but he should turn it around.

30. Steve Breaston 27 – The #2 in Zona won’t be as productive as recent years, but he’s still good.

31. Devin Aromashodu 26 – His status next season isn’t a given, but I believe he’ll be the #1.

Tier 8

32. Braylon Edwards 27 – He is who he is.

33. Jerricho Cotchery 28 – More reliable than Edwards, but not as much upside (or the coinciding down side).

34. Hines Ward 34 – I love old, steady players in redrafts, but tough to foresee how long they’ll be around in dy-nastys.

35. Donald Driver 35 – Look up a centimeter.

Tier 9

36. Johnny Knox 23 – He will be the deep threat for Cutler and with Martz he should get his shots.

37. Mike Wallace 24 – He will be hit and miss with Ward in the picture, but his hits are usually TD’s.

38. Jacoby Jones 26 – Bringing Kevin Walter back hurts, but I think he’ll beat him out or up.

39. Malcolm Floyd 29 – He’s the #2 WR in a pass heavy offense.

Tier 10

40. Julian Edelman 24 – Tough to gauge his worth, but you know he’ll be good for the first half of next season.

41. Terrell Owens 36 – Depends on where he ends up, but he’s TOld.

42. Austin Collie 24 – If he’s in the slot and Peyton is throwing to him, well, you get it.

43. T.J. Houshmandzadeh 33 – Not even sure he should be this high, but Carroll’s offense will be pass happy.

44. Antonio Bryant 29 – I like him even if he is a freak.

45. Nate Burleson 29 – He should be happy to be across from Megatron.  Just hope he stays healthy.

Free agency keeps on keeping on, with some interesting fantasy relevant moves being made.  Well, interesting to me and other people who sit on twitter waiting for Adam Schefter to tweet something.

Chester Taylor: He is now officially a Monster of the Midway.  His role with the team is still difficult to decipher.  It may end up being difficult to decipher even around week 12.  Forte is seven years younger than him, but this won’t be a case of trying to keep their franchise running back happy.  Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith want to keep their jobs and they must win this season to do that.  If Chester Taylor is the back to do that, he will get the work.

Matt Forte: Didn’t I just talk about this guy? Well, let’s see his side of the argument.  He was injured last season and had a bad o-line.  If he comes into camp healthy and determined to keep his job, I think he will.  Taylor will play, no doubt, but Forte can hold him off and if he does he will still be worthwhile in a Martz run offense, but not top 20 worthwhile.

Greg Olsen: Still with the Bears? Boring! Ok, Olsen was poised to do big things last year with Cutler coming to town, but ended up blocking more often than not so Cutler could keep his head attached to his body.  Now he has the tight end killer Mike Martz leading the offense and a newly acquired blocking TE in Manumaleuna in his way.  Martz will have to get creative if he wants to use him.

Anquan Boldin: He is now a Raven.  He finally gets his wish! He’s been traded! But to a run first, run second and pass to the RB third, team.  Boldin is good.  If healthy, there really is no way to keep him from getting 80 receptions and a thousand yards even with the Ravens.  But health has been his problem.  He is a tough player and isn’t afraid to get hit, which is good, but not great for the ribs, grill, knees, etc…

Derrick Mason: With Boldin signed, the Ravens are saying Mason isn’t a priority.  It could be a way to sign him for less because I believe they need him, especially with Boldin’s injury history.  If he does stay with the Ravens he would take the #2 spot and not be as valuable in fantasy as he has been.

Brandon Marshall: He has been having fun with Paul Allen’s hover cars and robot maids, but still hasn’t signed with the Seahawks. There are rumors of him going to Cincinnati, but supposedly those are just to jack up the Seahawks’ bid.  With Burleson gone and Carroll coming in with a aerial attack, they really need him.

Thomas Jones: He is meeting with the Chiefs which means they don’t trust Jamaal Charles to be the every down back.  I don’t like this scenario as a Charles dynasty owner, but I’m also not going to chop off the head of my Todd Haley voodoo doll.  I also have a concern about JC’s durability.  Do I want someone taking away his goal line carries? Uh, no.  But I’m only omnipotent a quarter of the time.  I was fairly conservative in my JC projections and he was still 6th overall.  If Jones comes to town he will drop a little, but I still like him in the top 10.

Justin Fargas: Fargas was cut and will also meet with the Chiefs.  This, I like.  If the Chiefs are willing to sign Fargas over Jones it means they have a lot of faith in Charles.  Fargas is a hard runner and could take some goal line work away, but he’s not as skilled as Jones.  Both Fargas and Jones will have trouble having a respectable yards per carry average behind that Chiefs o-line.  Charles works in space and can make his own space, TJ and Huggy Jr. can’t.

Darren McFadden/Michael Bush: With Fargas gone it makes this backfield a little more fantasy friendly.  And I mean little.  I was high on McFadden last season, but he had trouble staying healthy and running between the tackles and holding onto the ball.  That’s not the best sign, but he has a ton of talent. He will get the shot to be the starter, but I could see Bush getting a lot of the between the tackle work.

Kevin Walter: After Boldin signed with the Ravens Walter lost leverage and just went back to his old team.  This hurts Jacoby Jones, but I still believe Jones can beat Walter out and have a good season.

David Carr: He signed with the 49ers. This is somewhat interesting because Shaun Hill isn’t the worst QB of all time.  I believe SF likes what they have seen of Carr before his injury (don’t ask me why) and aren’t 100% sold on Alex Smith.  I still like Smith for next year, but this is just a little disconcerting.

Leon Washington: There are rumors that teams might go after him since he only got a 2nd round tender.  The chances are slim that he’ll go anywhere, but it would be a big blow to the Jets and possibly move Shonn Greene up even more.

Kassim Osgood: His size makes him intriguing since he is going to a team full of small receivers. Oh, that team is Jacksonville.  He is a special teams ace and will still be in Jax.  He will have to battle Mike Thomas for the #2 receiver position and that isn’t like the #2 receiver on the Colts or Saints, this is David Garrard we’re talking about.  He has Charger height which makes him interesting, but in reality he’ll probably be on the sidelines when the Jags have the ball.

Aaron Kampman: He also signed with the Jaguars.  If he is healthy, switching back to the 4-3 and defensive end should help him in IDP leagues.  And the Jags need him.  They had a sorry 14 sacks last season.

Free Agency has begun!  A lot of rumors were shot into the world yesterday, but not too many of them stuck.  I’ll take you through some of the juicier rumors and the stickier innuendo:

Jake Delhomme: He has been released by the Panthers due to suckiness, but also for money concerns which are boring.  Now that he’s on his way out I feel some regret for constantly mocking him, but he just wigged out and lost all his ability to distinguish his receivers from the other team’s cornerbacks.  With his experience there is no doubt he’ll find a team to give him shelter, but it would be amazing if he were to turn his career around at this point.

Matt Moore: Delhomme’s departure has left the quarterback position for Moore.  This is pretty good news for Steve Smith since Delhomme was having trouble getting him the ball.  Moore isn’t going to be a fantasy starter in the Panther’s run first offense, but he could move his way up into backup status.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has signed with the Detroit Lions.  This is very good news for our man Calvin Johnson.  If Burleson can stay healthy (a Rex Ryan sized if) he will take a lot of heat off Megatron and give Stafford three good targets in Pettigrew, Burls and Megatron.

Chad Pennington: It was looking good for Pennington to head back into the crowded Dolphin’s quarterback club, but he wants a no trade clause that the Dolphins don’t want to give him.  Chad Henne has the starting QB job, and they also like Tyler Thigpen and Pat White.  Pennington doesn’t feel like a necessity.

Chester Taylor: He is visiting Halas Hall today (that’s where the Bears hold their frozen rituals). This visit is very bad news for Forte owners. It doesn’t have to be 3rd down for running backs to catch passes in Mike Martz’s system, but since Forte’s value looks like it will be as a receiver next season, a back like Taylor who can catch the ball will really cut into his numbers.

Julius Peppers: The Bears were busy last night, especially Lovie Smith who showed up on Peppers doorstep at midnight and asked if he could sleep over.  I think they played Madden.  Peppers and Smith will form a singing duo and headline a show in Vegas over the summer.  With Peppers going to Chicago for a visit it’s looking like he’ll probably end up there.  Bears management is looking to save their jobs.

Brandon Marshall: Most of the news coming out about Marshall is that teams don’t want to mess with him.  He has the stink of petulance, a murder trial, and greed, all over him.  The rumor mill has the Seahawks as a suitor right now.  Pete Carroll could really use him now that Burleson is a Lion.

Thomas Jones: No concrete rumors have been circulating.  Can rumors be concrete? Adam Schefter believes the Browns will look hard at Jones which makes a lot of sense.  The Browns don’t believe Jerome Harrison can be an every down back (that must be why they gave him 100 carries in the last three games!).  It’s too early to get into Jones’ impact with the Browns since I have no clue who he’ll be playing for next season.

Darren Sproles: After deciding not to tender the scraptastic back slash kick returner, the Chargers took a gander at their depth chart and saw it peppered with scrubtastic backs, so they rethought and gave Sproles a 1st and 3rd round tender.  But there are rumors that they are willing to trade him for less than his tender.  I’m guessing because they don’t want to pay him 7 million dollars.

Kevin Walter: For some reason he is getting a lot of buzz.  He had a great chance to make some noise in the Texans pass heavy offense last season, especially after TE Owen Daniels went down, but instead he did a whole lot of jack squat.  The Ravens seem to be interested.  Sounds like a recipe for bluh.

Antonio Cromartie: The Jets traded a third rounder for Cromartie.  The guy is a little soft (take a look at his fake attempt at tackling Shonn Greene in the playoffs), but he does have cover skills.  Him and Revis will make the Jets defense even better.  They have to be the first D/ST off the board in drafts next season.

Derrick Mason: I couldn’t see the Ravens letting him go, but there have been rumors flying around that have him going to New England or Miami.  These could be rumors to help Mason get 2 years out of the Ravens.

Anquan Boldin: See above, but add the Ravens.

Aaron Kampman: The Bears were looking hard at Kampman, but harder at Peppers.  It’s now looking like the Seahawks are the front runners in the Kampman race.  His injury may make his signing a little further off, but he’ll help a team.

As you can tell, we have quarterbacks lower (or higher, which is it?) than other sites.  This is an age old tradition of the perts that we are upholding while others seem to be going away from. I’ve seen some perts say that since this has become a quarterback’s league they are worth more and you need to grab them earlier.  Hrmm?  With ten 4,000 yard passers last season there were plenty to go around in a 12 team, single QB league.  I’m not saying you should wait until Daunte Culpepper is the only QB left on the board, but you can wait.  With 2-3 RB’s and 3-4 WR’s needed in most leagues, grabbing a Rodgers/Manning/Brees in the first/second round is a waste.  Much will depend on your individual leagues and next season’s ADP, but 9 out of the top 10 point leaders last season were QB’s and that won’t change this year.  If you grab that ninth placed QB while getting a couple top 10 RB’s you will be sitting pretty and that’ll be true even if you ugly, u-g-l-y, you ain’t got no alibi, you ugly, eh hey, you ugly. Check out our top 20 behind this word.

21. Drew Brees: You probably won’t see Brees go this late, but I wouldn’t take him any earlier for the reasons above.  But he is probably a little more predictable than even Rodgers who is above him.  Much of Rodgers’ lead in fantasy points comes from his rushing TD’s which can vary, even though he keeps scoring them, the bastard.  The Saints offense can function with a bunch of no-names as long as Brees is at the helm.  Projection: 4500/36/14 — 30/2

22. Roddy White: Roddy finished as the 7th best fantasy wide receiver last season even though he was hurting toward the end.  We’ve got him as the 6th receiver this year, but I think he could move up a smidge.  Matt Ryan was injured and had a bit of a sophomore slump.  He should rebound well this year and give White plenty of opportunities. Projection: 90/1225/10

23: Vincent Jackson: I probably would have put VJax ahead of White and Moss if it wasn’t for his probable suspension for DUI’s.  It looks like it may just be one or two games which wouldn’t put a huge dent in his numbers.  And he should have plenty of numbers with the Chargers not having much of a running game and Rivers near the top of the awesome heap. Projection: 75/1250/9

24: Peyton Manning: He’s as solid as they get, but I doubt I’ll own him.  He will anchor your team, but so will a lot of QB’s you can grab later. Projection: 4300/33/13 — 15/1

25: Calvin Johnson: Last season Megatron had a down year due to injuries and inconsistent quarterbacking.  He is of course a bounce back candidate, but I doubt his ADP will drop too much because he is a magical creature from the land of Narnia.  I do think he got a little frustrated last season and didn’t play as well as he could so I’m not 100% sold he can return to top 5 form with a young Stafford, but I do believe he will return to top 10 form without much trouble. Projection: 75/1200/9

26: Brandon Marshall: He will probably be on another team soon which could move him up or down a little, but he is too good to drop no matter what team he is playing for.  He is a ppr beast, but much depends on the offense he ends up on.  Yeah, I know, I’ve said that already. Projection: 100/1175/9

27: Pierre Thomas: Reggie Bush and Mike Bell caused P.T. a lot of grief last season and there is no reason to think they won’t do the same again.  If Thomas stays healthy and takes some incriminating photos of Sean Payton, he may get the bulk of the goal line touches and move into second round value, but I just don’t trust Payton enough. Projection: 1050/7 — 40/325/2

28: Lesean McCoy: As things are, Shady is the main man in Philadelphia right now.  I have a feeling that the Eagles will look for a veteran like Tom Jones, but if that doesn’t happen he could be a steal, especially in ppr leagues. Projection: 1000/6 — 50/450/2

29. Fred Jackson: Finding a starting running back that you can depend on is tough this season and all the seasons before, but who cares about those.  Jackson held the starting position over Marshawn Lynch after he returned from his suspension and ran with it.  There has been talk of Lynch being traded, but it’s starting to look less and less likely.  If Jackson remains the man he is a great pick here, but we’ll have to keep an eye on Lynch; he may pull a gun on Fast Freddie, and talk about a dude who is u-g-l-y and Lynch sure didn’t have no alibi. Projection: 1100/6 — 45/375/1

30. Matt Schaub: Schaub was very good to all those fantasy players who had high expectations for him last season.  He went from injury risk to leading the NFL in passing yards.  I’m not going to factor in injury risk with quarterbacks.  They get hit and lose consciousness, them’s the breaks.  If he plays all 16 games, he will easily be worth a 3rd round pick.

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.