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The goal of this article is to find WRs to fade and buy based on how many fantasy points their opponent allows in the slot vs. out wide. In today’s article we will review the key out wide matchups for week 6.

The below chart breaks down where each team allows their fantasy points to WRs and is listed from the most to the least amount of fantasy points allowed out wide to WRs this season.

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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 18
2 9
3 11
4+ 28
Grand Total 66

 

Team: Arizona Cardinals

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

Shadow Coverage Matchup: James Bradberry

 

DeAndre Hopkins vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 27 7.4 96.3 0.4 16
Vs. Shadow Coverage 19 6.5 73.8 0.6 14.1
vs. James Bradberry 1 5 41 0 6.6
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Shadow Coverage Tracker
WR Finish Total
1 13
2 7
3 7
4+ 25
Grand Total 52

 

Team: Houston Texans

Opponent: New England Patriots

WR1: Will Fuller

Shadow Coverage Matchup:  Stephon Gilmore

 

Will Fuller vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents 23 4.8 70.5 0.5 12.6
Vs. Shadow Coverage 4 3 45 0.3 7.5

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

As we discussed in prior articles Will Fuller hasn’t seen much shadow coverage in his career due to DeAndre Hopkins. However, when he has seen it over the past two and a half seasons there is a notable dip. This includes a 1-8 performance vs. the Patriots just last season. In 2020 Will Fuller has shined in his new role, and was able to find the end zone in his lone shadow coverage matchup securing 3-35-1 vs. Jaire Alexander in week 7

Week 11 Recommendation – WR3/Flex

With Stephon Gilmore nursing a bump knee it is fair to question of effective he will be slowing down Will Fuller. This season Gilmore has only shadowed one elite WR all season which was D.K. Metcalf in week 2. Metcalf did get loose for a long TD finishing with 4-92-1 on the day. I do believe Gilmore will be able to slow down Fuller, but playing at home with no David Johnson, Watson will be expect to throw a lot in week 11.

DFS Recommendation – Price FD $7,100 / DK $6,900

On both sites Will Fuller is priced as a WR1 and will cost you well over 10% of your budget. This makes him a DFS fade as his best performance to date in shadow coverage was 11 points which won’t get it done in DFS. Players I would pivot to include Kenny Golladay vs. CAR and Diontae Johnson vs. JAX

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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 2

Team: Chicago Bears

Opponent: New York Giants

WR1: Allen Robinson

Shadow Coverage Match-up: James Bradberry

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Allen Robinson vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All other opponents 22 5.5 72.4 0.4 12.4
Vs. Shadow Coverage 7 4.6 44.1 0.3 8.4
Vs. James Bradberry N/A

 

When reviewing Allen Robinson’s career stats vs. shadow coverage he had 2 big games and 5 duds. His big weeks came vs. notable corners Marshon Lattimore and Darius Slay where he turned 12 targets into 80 yards plus yards and a score in both. The interesting thing about the Saints game is Lattimore shut down Robinson when he covered him on 67% of his snaps, but Robinson was able to dominate in the slot which helped him finish with a strong day. The remaining 5 games Robinson struggled, failing to get to 50 yards or score in any of them.

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The Shadow Coverage Report – Week 1

Team: Minnesota Vikings

Opponent: Green Bay Packers

WR1: Adam Thielen

Shadow Coverage Match-up: Jaire Alexander

Historical Production vs. Shadow Coverage

Adam Thielen vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games Rec Yards TDs PPG
All Other Opponents
23 5.5 69 0.5 12.8
Vs. Shadow Coverage
5 5.8 76.8 0.6 14.2
Vs. Jaire Alexander
1 8 125 1 22.5

Season long Recommendation – Start

After a lost 2019 Adam Thielen looks to bounce back quick vs. division rival Green Bay and tier 2 shadow corner Jaire Alexander. Last season the Packers used Jaire Alexander to shadow Stefon Diggs, but with Diggs now gone Thielen will most likely draw coverage from the Packers top corner. The last time Thielen squared off directly vs. Alexander was in Week 12 of 2018. Thielen got the best of Alexander torching the Packers for 8-125-1. A big key for Thielen is he plays a lot of his snaps in the slot, and even vs. notable shadow corners like Marshon Lattimore he has shown he can win in these match-ups. This is why I got a Thielen that sitting him is a bad idea. Did you see what I did there…no…ok moving on. 

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2020 Shadow Coverage Report

Miami Dolphins

Division: AFC EAST

WR1: Devante Parker

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 8

Historical Production

DeVante Parker vs. Shadow Coverage in 2019
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage
4 13.6
All other opponents
12 13.0

DeVante Parker was nothing short of amazing in 2019 as his career year came at a fantastic time aka his contract year. Now after a big pay day Parker needs to show that 2019 was no fluke. Last season down the stretch Parker beat up on some notable corners including Tre’Davious White (7-135), William Jackson (5-111) and Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore (8-137). Granted during that time Parker was the only show in town as he averaged 12 targets in those games which is an unsustainable 16 game pace of 192. All in all, it was still impressive none the less.

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In 2019 D.J. Moore somehow avoided multiple match-ups vs. shadow corners. In week 3 the Panthers faced the Arizona Cardinals while Patrick Peterson was on suspension. In Week 5 the Panthers played against the Jaguars with no Jalen Ramsey. In week 12 the Saints were without Marshon Lattimore and in Week 17 Lattimore played limited snaps as the Saints had their playoff seed sealed up. Even young cornerback Carlton Davis was yet to be used in shadow coverage as the Panthers faced the Buccaneers both times early in 2019.

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Mike Evans has 8 shadow corner match-ups heading into this season with 7 of them coming against tier 1 cornerbacks. This includes a daunting early season schedule that includes 3 shadow coverage match-ups which could lead Evans to a less desirable start for your fantasy team. That being said things do open up for Evans after week 4 including a very favorable fantasy playoff schedule. All this being said, does this make Evans a fade in drafts, and more of a mid-season trade target? Find out our thoughts 2020 Shadow Coverage Report – Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Team: Buffalo Bills

Division: AFC EAST

WR1: Stefon Diggs

Number of Potential Shadow Coverage Match-ups: 8


Historical Production

Stefon Diggs vs Shadow Coverage 2018-2019

Stefon Diggs vs. Shadow Coverage
Opponent Games PPG
Vs. Shadow Coverage 6 11
All other opponents 24 13.4

*Point per game based on receiving stats only

Diggs has seen some mixed results vs. shadow corners. Top cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore, Patrick Peterson and Darius Slay held him under 50 yards over the past two seasons. However, Diggs did have one dominate performance vs. Chris Harris and the Denver Broncos. In five of six games he was held under the 13.4 points per game average he has in all other match-ups while failing to reach double digit fantasy points in 50% of those games in .5 PPR. Overall Diggs only produced one WR1 week in the games he saw shadow coverage from a tier 1 cornerback.

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