Fantasy Football Advice

We’ve got a lot of questions to answer this week.  Will Julius Jones take away carries from Justin Forsett against the hapless Rams? Will Cedric Benson be ready to go against the horrid Cleveland defense or do we get some more Bernard Scott? Does Michael Turner have any chance to get in there against the sorry Tampa rush defense or do we get another good week out of Jason Snelling? Will Ricky Williams score 5 or just 4 touchdowns against the sad Bisons’ rush “defense.”

We also have some Thanksgiving questions which we’ll find the answers to very soon.  Such as, can Marion Barber have a good game against a bad defense or is he just completely worthless? Will the Raiders have one running back come up and get most of the carries and will that be Darren McFadden because I own him? Will Kevin Smith be killed with Saint Stafford and Megatron on the sidelines? Will Ryan Grant keep making me look stupid? Will Danny Ware get enough carries to be fantasy relevant with Ahmad Bradshaw out? Will Knowshon Moreno hold onto the ball while going across the goal line so my team won’t lose by 3 points?

So, there are some questions that might be worth contemplating in say, a sweat lodge, while doing Tai-Chi, yoga, whatever your  spiritual reflection of choice.

Did you see “The Wizard” with Fred Savage? It’s this cheesy early 90’s movie with a climactic Nintendo showdown. Mario Brothers III was unveiled at the end. It was like, the future or something. I remember being so pumped about that game. In fact if you weren’t pumped about Mario Brothers III then I hate your face.

As I discussed last week “Sleeper Math” is changing with the season and will now focus on the best players to roster (mostly RB’s). It’s not easy to unearth diamonds in the rough this time of year but I’m up for the challenge. Waive goodbye to your backup Tight Ends, Quarterbacks, and marginal Team Defenses and say hello to no name running backs who might just win you a title (and be a ridiculously good keeper for next season).

Worth a Waiver Claim

Fred Jackson – Probably not available but get him if you can. Marshawn Lynch left Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury. Not sure what that means going forward other than Jackson’s value just shot up.

Rock Cartwright – No, I’m not talking about return yard leagues here people. Portis and Betts are ruled out for next week. There’s an outside chance that Cartwright could wind up starting for the rest of the season. In the meantime he’s going to get all the touches out of the backfield because he’s all there is.

Bernard Scott – He shouldn’t be on waivers but a lot of you out there have boneheads in your league. Clearly if he’s still available you should claim him. It’s unclear whether Benson will play this week against Cleveland.

Worth Grabbing in Free Agency (after Waivers clear)

Danny Ware – Jacobs got injured on Sunday. It’s tough to say what the extent of it will be. Regardless Ware is an excellent stash right now. He could  be a big surprise to close out the season.

Brandon Gibson – Jones will be taking an extensive look at him in his Targets article tomorrow. He is getting the ball thrown A TON to him.

Maurice Morris – Kevin Smith had a good game but Morris is still worth stashing because he’s talented and Smith’s been injured this season.

Chris Jennings – He had just under 10 points in PPR this week. It’s miraculous that Jamal Lewis is still out there. If he gets hurt Jennings could find his way in to your starting lineup.

Lex Hilliard – I thought he’d get more touches in his first outing but I’m sure he’ll get more involved in the offense. Miami’s offense can easily support two productive running backs (as they’ve shown all season).

Mohamed Massoquoi – He’s probably not available in your league. If he is on Waivers I wouldn’t put a claim on him, personally. I do think he could be useful toward the end of the season but you shouldn’t need to slide him in there as a starter.

Darren MacFadden – I’m not that excited about him but if he’s a free agent I’d throw him on your bench and wait to see if he does anything.

Deep Sleepers/Stashes (Drop your Snuggies to pick them up)

Tyrell Sutton – He is drawing a lot of praise in Carolina. Unfortunately that backfield is really packed right now. If either Williams or Stewart goes down he could put up useful digits though- keep your eyes open.

Rashad Jennings – Not going to be a factor unless Maurice Jones-Drew gets hurt. If that happens, however, you’ll be glad you own Rashad Jennings.

Ryan Moats – It’s evident now that Slaton’s won his starting job back. Moats has once again become a stash. The good part is he showed that he can be productive when given an opportunity.

Jerious Norwood – I guess we’re just going to wait forever for him to get healthy. With Turner still out (more than likely) you could do worse than stashing Norwood just in case.

Brandon Jackson – Just when you think he’s irrelevant again… Jackson had 6 catches for 65 yards on Sunday (he’s a running back, not a receiver). If Ryan Grant goes down to injury he could be valuable. For obvious reasons he’s a better stash in PPR leagues.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Game (Day) Theory: Sleeper Math Week 11

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Greetings Razzballers! We have come to the end of the trading season in Fantasy Football. This week is the last opportunity to move players and shuffle your roster in almost all leagues. So I will shift this column to align with what’s happening in Fantasy.

Beginning next week I will eliminate Tier’s I and II other than occasionally pointing out players I think are due for improvement or regression, just for kicks. Instead I will focus on Tier III players who are likely to be out there and available to claim on waivers or pick up via free agency.

At the beginning of next season I will once again resume Sleeper Math’s three tiered system because then you can actually make trades to grab those players. As an aside I would like to let everyone know that the writer’s here at Razzball have been talking a lot about next season already. We will have very extensive pre-draft rankings, downloadable cheat sheets (for PPR and standard), and discuss the top sleepers quite extensively. We are also going to discuss keepers in the offseason.

Tier I

Drew Brees 20 (10+10) – I really wish he’d stop finding his way on to this list since I own him in my most competitive league. He just hasn’t delivered consistently but I love his chances of rebounding (combined with the cupcake schedule) going forward.

Marques Colston 18 (9+9) – Partner in crime and another player who keeps finding his way on to this list. I lust Colston for all the same reasons as Brees. If the price is right feel comfortable about pulling the trigger.

Calvin Johnson 18 (9+9) – I’m as sick of having to put him on this list as he is of being on it and you are reading about him. His second game back was better than the first. He didn’t re-injure anything so you have to think he’ll only get more healthy from here. Stafford’s health also continues to improve. Calvin’s projections for this week (at least in Yahoo) aren’t very good so this would be a nice final opportunity for you to get him on the cheap.

LeSean McCoy 18 (8+9) – He’s the only player to move all the way up from a Tier III Sleeper to Tier I guy. I don’t have an award for that but if I did he’d get it. Some people might question placing this much value on him but he’s the only horse in the stable in Philadelphia; it’s questionable whether or not Brian Westbrook will even play at all the rest of the season. It’s very possible that you’ll think you’re giving up too much to get him but in reality you’re still buying production on the cheap.

Tier II

Steve Slaton 16 (9+7) – He’s moved in the wrong direction the last few weeks. There are a lot of question marks about whether he or Ryan Moats is going to be the man going forward. The playoff schedule is a cakewalk and Slaton’s got boatloads of talent; I’d pay what his value is right now to get the upside.

Justin Forsett 15 (8+7) – He is slated to get the start for the upcoming week. Don’t be surprised if he becomes the full time starter. This past Sunday he tore it up for over 20 points. I see him as a double-digit contributor if he remains at the top of the depth chart. He doesn’t have the best matchup this week but after that there are some weak defenses coming his way.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. I’m just going to repeat what I said last week. This guy is still super undervalued and he could be a really nice flex starter for you in deeper leagues from here on out: “The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.”

Correll Buckhalter 15 (8+7) – For some reason he barely touched the football on Sunday. He did have a fumble early but I don’t see why McDaniel’s would strip him of opportunities entirely after that. It shouldn’t cost you that much to trade for him so I think he’s worth grabbing.

Tier III

Jason Snelling 15 (7+8) – In deeper leagues you should be using a waiver claim on him. Michael Turner might be out for multiple weeks; in fact it looks like he’s going to be despite the faux-optimism his coach is throwing out there.

Jerious Norwood 14 (7+7) – He was such a popular stash preseason, especially in PPR. Word on the street is he’s finally healthy. If that’s the case he could see some action while Turner’s out. Probably not worth a waiver claim but I’d snag him in free agency if there’s room.

Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Here’s what I said last week: “Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down.” I can’t say it any better this week.

Larry Johnson 13 (7+6) – I question whether or not Larry Johnson will step in there and start in Cincinnati right away. Unless Marvin Lewis announces otherwise I’m sticking with Bernard Scott as my recommendation for the player likely to hang on to the starting gig. He’s still worth stashing if on free agency, however.

Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Another week, another poor performance by Kevin Smith. The reports on him continue to get more and more negative. When Morris has gotten a chance he’s done really well. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions get fed up with Smith’s ineffectiveness and give Morris a shot.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – The gauntlet of injuries to stud running backs this past Sunday reminds us all that any player can go down at any time. Jennings really has no one competing with him for touches should something happen to Pocket Hercules. Stash away if you have space.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – What’s not to love? Jacobs and Bradshaw are sitting in front of him- both are big time injury concerns. That offensive line will create opportunities for him if he gets his chance.

You can follow us on twitter: @Razzball_Drew, @mgeoffriau, @Razzball

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Tier I

Steven Jackson 19 (10+9) – I know how bad the Rams are but it doesn’t even matter. Jackson has failed to get in the end zone very often this season but don’t worry about that. He has been a relative “disappointment” but his time is coming. I lust Steven Jackson from here on out.

Calvin Johnson 18 (10+8) – Didn’t put up very good numbers in his first start coming back from the injury. You have to be buying him right now to have a strong season from here on out.

Anquan Boldin 16 (9+7) – He warmed up, was on the field, etc. Whisenhut scratched him from the lineup because of the field conditions in Chicago. Boldin was fired up about not getting to play. That should make him even more hungry from here on out.

Jason Witten 16 (8+8) – I really wish that he would play his way off this list since I own him in multiple leagues. There’s no reason Tony Romo shouldn’t be feeding him the rock. He has been such a great player for several seasons and there are no injury concerns, etc. to worry about. He should be comfortable buy going forward.

Tier II

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 15 (8+7) – Had a pretty good game on Sunday but has yet to put up the type of numbers we’re used to from him. The Seattle offense isn’t exactly prolific but their pass schedule is very soft going forward. I like him to turn it around.

Jamaal Charles 15 (8+7) – Larry Johnson was cut from the Kansas City Chiefs. There is a God, Yahweh, Vishnu, Buddha; whoever you want to thank for this divine intervention. In Charles first start this weekend the Chiefs failed to feed him the rock enough but I’m optimistic that he’ll get his soon enough. It sort of helps that he didn’t explode in his first start because he’s remained attainable.

Jerricho Cotchery 15 (8+7) – Had a nice game right before his bye week coming off the injury. I’d feel better about him if he wasn’t paired up with a rookie quarterback but it is what it is. You should be able to get him extremely cheap right now and he’ll make a very serviceable flex starter in 12 team from here on out.

Beanie Wells 15 (8+7) – At some point he should take at least some of the goal line work from Hightower. The Cardinals looked really good on Sunday running the football. I think there is a lot of upside here and I am very optimistic about Beanie.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – in PPR. The Texans are a high powered offense and their passing game continues to be a strong source of Fantasy points. Walter is a poor man’s Wes Welker. In PPR that’s definitely a valuable asset to your team. Walter battled injuries earlier in the season but is getting more and more productive each week.

Tier III

Jerome Harrison 14 (8+6) – He will get his shot at some point this season and when he does you’ll want to own him (see Jamaal Charles).

Bernard Scott 14 (7+7) – Cedric Benson is getting a ridiculous amount of carries right now. He has shown no signs of breaking down but you have to wonder how he’s going to hold up late in the season. Scott is a really nice stash in case he goes down

Maurice Morris 14 (8+6) – Kevin Smith has alternated between dinged up and ineffective the last few weeks. Morris came in while Smith was injured and played very well. It seems very possible that he could win this starting job at some point for either reason.

Rashad Jennings 13 (8+5) – He carried the ball a few times on Sunday for the Jaguars and turned one of those opportunities in to a touchdown. MJD is a workhorse but much like Cedric Benson that excessive workload could catch up to him and lead to an injury.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – Bradshaw and Jacobs are both prime candidates for injury at some point this season. If either one goes down Ware will see a lot of action and will be immediate fantasy gold for you.

You can follow me on twitter: Razzball_Drew

Formula:

Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Tier I

Jason Witten 17 (9+8) – I know that Miles Austin is catching everything in Dallas right now but there’s no way this pace continues. Think: Steve Smith, New York Giants. I still believe in Jason Witten and his track record.

Brian Westbrook 16 (8+8) – He’s still worth the gamble considering how low his value is. Concussions can be really tricky and he is injury plagued as it is but you have to love his ceiling still. If his owner thinks his value is anything even close to his ADP tell him/her to get lost.

Calvin Johnson 17 (9+8) – It’s disconcerting that his injury has lingered like this. All indications were that he was going to play this Sunday but he didn’t. I still like him as a 2^nd half of the season comeback player.

Anquan Boldin 16 (8+8) – Similar to the Calvin Johnson situation. Dude’s a warrior. Wants a new contract in the offseason. He played after having a broken face last season. The Cardinals have a cupcake Fantasy Playoff schedule. I’ll double down on Anquan.

Steve Slaton 16 (8+8) – What is Gary Kubiak thinking? I know Slaton’s been fumbling the ball all over the place but I don’t understand how you can go from exclusively featuring somebody to just yanking them out of the game entirely. There might be something else going on in Houston that we don’t know about yet. It’s just hard to believe that Slaton’s going to be sitting on the bench the rest of the season. Right now is a good time to capitalize on those fears.

Tier II

Jonathan Stewart 15 (8+7) – Big game on Sunday for this goal line back with 87 yards rushing and two touchdowns. He has been such a disappointment this season for fantasy owners but don’t be surprised if he has a solid 2^nd half of the season.

Jerricho Cotchery 15 (8+7) – He had a nice game on Sunday. I really like him from here on out to deliver value. He appeared very healthy on Sunday and it looks like the Jets were telling the truth when they said they just didn’t want to rush him back.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 15 (8+7) – Doc talked about how easy the Seahawks have it down the stretch in terms of the passing defenses they’ll face.  I really like him as a second half Sleeper.

Malcolm Floyd 15 (7+8) – I’ve had Floyd on here as Sleeper in Tier III before but the Chargers made him a starter and they waived Chris Chambers. Their offense has been so solid all year; Floyd’s upside could be really huge. I can’t imagine he’s out there on waivers (if he is, grab him). See if you can make a cagey trade for him where you don’t give up a ton.

Jamaal Charles 15 (8+7) – Larry Johnson’s days in KC are all but numbered. Charles is another player that’s been a Sleeper Math veteran, always in Tier III. I am moving him up to Tier II because the word is out- everyone knows. Even so no one’s had a chance to see him play a game yet so there’s still a small (very, very small) window of opportunity for you to grab him in a trade.

Kevin Walter 15 (7+8) – With Owen Daniels out for the season Schaub is going to need a new target in the middle of the football field and on short to intermediate routes. Kevin Walter should see an increase in both targets and receptions from here on out.

Tier III

Ryan Moats 14 (8+6) – I refuse to put him in Tier II yet. Doc and I were talking about Moats last month when Slaton was struggling. Since then he’s turned it around and just like everyone else I was shocked to see him benched like that.  Odds are Gary Kubiak was using last weeks game to “Show Steve Slaton who’s Boss.” There have been a lot of elite backs who have struggled with fumbling the football. Slaton will get his ego back in check, work on the fundamentals, and find his way back in to Kubiak’s good graces. That being said you need to put a waiver claim in on Moats just in case.

Jerome Harrison 14 (8+6) – Another week, another Jerome Harrison… Here’s another Sleeper Math veteran.  We saw what he was able to do earlier in the season when Lewis was injured. Hopefully he gets hurt again and Harrison can get the opportunity to start that he deserves.

Maurice Morris 14 (7+7) – Kevin Smith left last Sunday’s game with a minor injury. Morris came in and played well in his stead. The coaching staff said Smith could’ve returned but they were being precautionary. It sounds like he’ll be ready to go this Sunday. Even so this makes Morris a really nice stash in case Smith’s injury is worse than reported or he re-aggravates it.

Mike Thomas 14 (7+7) – My esteemed colleague, Mr. Jones will be dropping “Targets” on the website this afternoon. He will discuss, much more eloquently than I can, why this guy is good pickup.

Tashard Choice 14 (8+6) – There’s reason to question whether Barber and Felix Jones can manage to stay healthy. Choice’s value is back down again, to waiver wire level in most leagues. He proved what he can do when he gets an opportunity. Stashing him for the second half is not a bad idea.

Justin Forsett 14 (7+7) – He has continued to get more and more looks in the offense while Julius Jones is boring us all to death. Forsett is one of the best second half Sleepers- he is a player who could leapfrog to the top of the depth chart either via injury to Jones or superior skill set.

Danny Ware 13 (7+6) – Ahmad Bradshaw’s foot will bother him the rest of the season. At some point he could injure it worse than it already is. If that happens Danny Ware will become the change of pace back to Jacobs and you could expect him to be solid producer for the G-Men.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew