Fantasy Football Advice

With the majority of fantasy leagues starting their playoffs this week, I’m going to start paring down the ratings just a little. Up to this point, I wanted to rate enough players to ensure that even the marginal teams with injury-depleted rosters had enough information to make good decisions. By now I’m hoping that almost all playoff teams have their rosters fairly well sorted out, so I don’t think it’s necessary to cover as many backup QB’s and WR’s in depth.

Don’t forget, the pass defense ratings now reflect the last 6 weeks, not the entire season. On to the matchups!

Thursday 8 PM game

Pittsburgh (19th) @ Cleveland (23th)

Santonio Holmes didn’t have any trouble against Asomugha and the Raiders secondary, and I expect continued success here against a troubled Cleveland defense. Hines Ward will likely be a gametime decision here — if he sits, upgrade Heath Miller and Mike Wallace. Not a fan of Ward here even if he plays.

PIT: Roethlisberger +2, Holmes +2, Ward 0, Miller 0, Wallace +1

Brady Quinn had a really nice game against a SD pass defense that isn’t half bad, and the Steelers defense is average at best without Polamalu (who may have played his last snap this year). Unfortunately, the looks and TD’s got spread around enough that no single receiver is particularly valuable (apart from possibly Jerome Harrison — wrong position). This isn’t a terrible matchup if you are stuck with Quinn. In return yardage leagues Cribbs can be very valuable, racking up return, receiving, and rushing yardage.

CLE: Quinn +1, Massaquoi +1, Cribbs +1

Sunday 1 PM games

Buffalo (6th) @ Kansas City (22nd)

I have to imagine that the Bills offense will rebound after getting shut down by the Jets secondary last week. The Chiefs’ defense is pretty bad, so while I still don’t recommend relying on Fitzpatrick, I think you can confidently play Owens as a WR2 or Lee Evans as a WR3 here.

BUF: Fitzpatrick +1, Owens +1, Evans +1

On the other hand, while I don’t think the Chiefs will be quite as bad as they were last week (they should at least be able to run on the Bills), I wouldn’t throw Cassel or Chambers our there this week.

KC: Cassel -2, Chambers -2

Green Bay (10th) @ Chicago (7th)

Aaron Rodgers continues to get it done against all defenses. Jennings had more receptions and yards, but Driver snagged a TD to go with his 31 yards. Driver did look a little out of sync last week, but it’s not worth worrying about yet. Jermichael Finley had his “coming out party” (seriously — coming out parties are more popular as an idiom than as an actual event — when’s the last time you were invited to a coming out party?) with 79 yards and 2 TD’s. Don’t expect that every week, but he’s definitely recovered from his injury and is playing well. The Bears are ranked fairly high but I just don’t see it mattering against Rodgers.

GB: Rodgers 0, Driver 0, Jennings +1, Finley +1

As I cautioned last week, Cutler isn’t a safe play even against bad defenses right now, and the Packers are well above average in pass defense. Hester is expected to practice on Thursday, but if he’s gimpy that further weakens the Bears offense. At this point, I have a hard time recommending any Bears — Cutler is scuttling everyone’s value. Actually, that’d be a good name for him: Jay Scutler.

CHI: Cutler -2, Hester -2, Bennett -2, Knox -2, Olsen -2

Carolina (18th) @ New England (29th)

Matt Moore is likely to start again this week in place of Delhomme, and that’s a….good thing? Bad thing? Hell, I don’t know. He’s probably less error-prone than Delhomme, but the Panthers will likely not let him take many risks in the first place. The Patriots secondary has been torched the last few weeks (most recently by the vaunted Miami pass offense), so I think Steve Smith is actually a pretty good play here. You’re relying on him breaking a long play or two, but he’s about as good a bet as anyone to do that.

CAR: Moore 0, Smith +1

The Patriots are “struggling” but the offense is just fine. They posted 448 yards against the Dolphins and should’ve scored more than 21 points if not for some untimely turnovers. Carolina still ranks highly in pass defense on the year but the more recent history tells the tale — you can throw on them. I’m expecting status quo here — 8+ receptions for Welker, and 5+ for Moss with a TD. I’ve seen team notes about the Patriots making an effort to get the TE’s involved more, but for now let’s assume it’s meaningless coachspeak and Belichick isn’t divulging valuable offensive gameplan information to the media.

NE: Brady +1, Welker +1, Moss +1, Aiken 0

Miami (24th) @ Jacksonville (12th)

I’ve gotten into the habit of writing off Chad Henne as merely competent but not productive enough for fantasy purposes. With the loss of Ronnie Brown, the Dolphins have started to give Henne the opportunity to drive the offense. Still, I’d be careful — it took 52 attempts to get those 335 yards, and that many throws by a rookie often results in 2 or 3 critical mistakes. The biggest beneficiary seems to be Davone Bess, whose skills are ideal for moving the chains with short 8-15 yard throws. He may be a legit PPR league starter now. Fasano also sneaks back into the mix as a decent waiver-level TE. The Jags secondary has improved but I wouldn’t grade them as a top unit just yet.

MIA: Henne 0, Bess +1, Hartline 0, Fasano 0

Garrard had a nice game last week with 238 yards and 2 TD’s. The problem is that he spread his 15 completions among 9 different receivers (with no receiver catching more than 3), and that makes it hard to trust the previously reliable Mike Sims-Walker. On the other hand, MSW followed up his previously worst game (2 catches for 9 yards, on the road at TEN) with a monster 147 yard game at home. I think you have to play him here and trust that he’ll be able to get open against a poor Miami secondary. The other Zach Miller is physically gifted, but he’s not involved enough to be a fantasy option yet.

JAC: Garrard +1, Sims-Walker +1, Holt 0

Seattle (30th) @ Houston (8th)

The Texans rank highly in pass yardage against, but they still allow a fairly high completion rate against, I don’t believe they are the kind of secondary worthy of a significant downgrade for your starters. That said, Seattle’s pass offense is about as inconsistent as they come, so I wouldn’t feel great about banking my season on Matt Hasselbeck. Burleson should be relatively safe here. If you’re still assuming that Carlson is your TE starter, it may be time to check your waiver wire.

SEA: Hasselbeck -1, Burleson, Houshmandzadeh -1, Carlson -2

Yikes. If you’re a Matt Schaub owner, your assignment is to make sure you have a serviceable backup ready and monitor the status reports up until Houston’s gametime. Even if Schaub is expected to start, you may consider playing a good backup over him, since the Texans may pull him if the score gets lopsided in either direction (and, of course, he may be reinjured during the game). Still, it’s very apparent that the Texans are not comfortable with Grossman in the game, so if it’s a close game, expect Schaub to play if at all possible. The upgrade/downgrade math here works out as a +2 for the matchup and a -2 for the significant risk that Schaub may miss some or all of the game. Call it a risky 0 — it’ll either be feast or famine.

HOU: Schaub 0, Johnson 0, Walter 0

Denver (4th) @ Indianapolis (27th)

The Broncos didn’t rack up that many passing yards against KC, but that was the result of a run-heavy attack after taking a big lead on the Chiefs. This game is likely to be exactly the opposite — Orton will have to throw early and often to keep pace with the Indy offense. That might result in a turnover or two, but there should also be plenty of opportunity for yards and TD’s. Marshall is the only fantasy-relevant receiver (though Royal is still an option for return yardage leagues). Scheffler and Graham split the TE production, don’t bother with either.

DEN: Orton +1, Marshall +1, Royal 0, Scheffler 0

As we’ve noted before in this space, you can’t sit Manning against even the best defenses. No backup QB, no matter his matchup, is worth risking your first round playoff matchup. At this point it’s hard not to consider Garcon a legit WR2, and if Champ Bailey is tasked with stopping Reggie Wayne, Garcon could be in for another big day.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Garcon 0, Clark 0, Collie 0

New York Jets (2nd) @ Tampa Bay (9th)

Hello, Kellen Clemens! Goodbye, Jerricho Cotchery’s playoff value! Seriously. I expect the Jets to run the ball all day long in this game. Cotchery….WR3? Blech. Not a fan. I’d rather be playing Kenny Britt or the like.

NYJ: Clemens 0 (in other words, not good is the baseline standard), Cotchery -2, Edwards -2, Keller -2

If you’re looking for the silver lining to Josh Freeman’s 5 interception game, it’s that Tampa apparently feels comfortable leaving Freeman in the starting role and letting him take chances (though I imagine that Josh Johnson has to be wondering when they started giving the QB such a long leash). Needless to say, the Jets secondary is probably better than Carolina’s, so this isn’t a matchup you want. Antonio Bryant is likely to draw coverage from Revis, so I can’t recommend him, but Kellen Winslow should get enough looks to make him a safe play here.

TB: Freeman -2, Bryant -2, Winslow -1

New Orleans (21st) @ Atlanta (26th)

Great matchup here. After weeks and weeks of Meachem getting only 1 or 2 receptions per week but somehow finding the end zone, Brees found him 8 times for 142 yards last week. I don’t think it’s premature to consider him as a co-WR2 with Henderson. Reggie Bush has been dinged up and may not play, so there could be a few more looks for everyone else.

NO: Brees +2, Colston +2, Meachem +2, Henderson +1, Shockey +1

Matt Ryan is supposed to “test” his toe in practice on Thursday and Friday, but even if he’s cleared to play, I don’t recommend relying on him. The Falcons are struggling right now, and the Saints may take an early lead. If the game gets out of hand, the Falcons may decide to let Redman finish the game. Fortunately, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez seem to be productive no matter who is at QB, so they remain safe plays here.

ATL: Ryan/Redman -1, White 0, Gonzalez 0

Cincinnati (1st) @ Minnesota (15th)

Carson Palmer owners are probably getting a little nervous by now, and with good reason. The Detroit matchup was a must-play, but Palmer had a barely adequate game against the worst pass defense in the league. The Vikings don’t have a fantastic secondary, but they do get after the QB, so I think a downgrade is in order for Palmer until we see him rebound. If Palmer is your starter, I’d definitely see who is available on your waiver wire this week. Fortunately, his poor play includes locking onto Ochocinco.

CIN: Palmer -1, Ochocinco 0, Coles -1

The Bengals have been dominant against the pass — the problem is that the Vikings have enough weapons that there should be a decent mismatch on the field somewhere. Favre gets a very, very mild -1 downgrade here. Sidney Rice is likely to garner most of the defensive attention, so he also gets a mild -1 downgrade.

MIN: Favre -1, Rice -1, Harvin 0, Berrian 0, Shiancoe 0

Detroit (32nd) @ Baltimore (5th)

Culpepper’s playing in place of Stafford, Pettigrew is done for the year, and Baltimore has been shutting down the pass since midseason. Yeah, not a great situation. Calvin Johnson gets less of a downgrade than the rest of the offense, and he’s still worth playing over any WR2 and a lot of WR1’s.

DET: Culpepper -2, Calvin Johnson -1

Remember how last week I comforted all the Carson Palmer owners by saying that he had the perfect matchup for a rebound? Yeah, that’s exactly the advice I’m going to give you Flacco owners this week. Just ignore what happened to Palmer against Detroit. No really. Even if Flacco does nothing but dump off to Ray Rice all game, he could still have a nice day.

BAL: Flacco +2, Mason +2, Heap +1

Sunday 4 PM games

Washington (16th) @ Oakland (20th)

What do you do with Jason Campbell now? Did anyone expect him to outplay Drew Brees (at least statistically) last week? If you’ve got a legit QB1 I think you play him, but if you’ve lost Matt Ryan or maybe Schaub doesn’t go on Sunday, I think Campbell is a nice high-risk high-reward option (and don’t kid yourself, the risk is always there with Campbell). Devin Thomas hit 100 yards exactly with 2 TD’s last week, but I wouldn’t rely on him yet — unless you’re in a return yardage league, in which case his combination of WR2/WR3 production plus kickoff return duty is very valuable.

WAS: Campbell +1, Moss +1, Thomas 0 (+1 in return yardage leagues), Davis 0

If you follow Twitter while watching the Sunday games, then you probably saw all the same “GRADKOWSKI!!!!” tweets I did last week. So what? If you’re playing this week, I’m assuming you’ve made the playoffs. If you’ve made the playoffs, I’m assuming your QB and WR situation is decent enough that you aren’t relying on longshots. And if you aren’t relying on longshots, then you have no business starting any Raiders in the fantasy playoffs. Well, except for Zach Miller. You can play Zach Miller. For the sake of consistency, I’m rating the rest of the Oakland pass offense anyway, but just ignore it — you don’t want the risk.

OAK: Gradkowski +1, Murphy +1, Schilens 0, Miller +1

St. Louis (3rd) @ Tennessee (17th)

See what I just wrote about the Raiders? Apply that same lesson here. Except for the part about Zach Miller. The Titans’ pass defense rating over the last 6 games took a hit because of the Indy offense, but they are still playing pretty well.

STL: Boller -1, Avery -1, Gibson -1

And conversely, the Rams pass defense over the last 6 games looks quite a bit better than they really are. Facing Cutler helps. I like this matchup for Vince Young — I’m not ready to say I’m a believer, exactly, but he’s certainly no more risky that someone like Jason Campbell. Kenny Britt is a great play here, but don’t overplay his return yardage boost — he returns kickoffs, and the Rams are not likely to score frequently. The biggest detriment to the value of the Titans pass offense is the ease with which they will gain yards on the ground.

TEN: Young +1, Britt +2, Washington +1, Scaife 0

San Diego (14th) @ Dallas (11th)

The Chargers have a legitimately tough matchup in Dallas, but Rivers has earned must-start status against any defense, as has Antonio Gates. Conspicuously absent from that introductory sentence was Vincent Jackson, who has underwhelmed over the last few weeks. It’s time to consider him just a borderline WR1 right now (or a strong WR2).

SD: Rivers 0, Gates 0, Jackson -1

Where have you been all my life, Jason Witten? The Cowboys finally got Witten involved and did it without cutting into the production of Miles Austin and Roy Williams (albeit on a day that Romo attempted 55 passes). The Chargers’ pass defense is pretty good, but I think Dallas will again have to throw early and often to keep pace.

DAL: Romo 0, Austin 0, Williams 0, Witten +1

Sunday 8 PM game

Philadelphia (13th) @ New York Giants (25th)

McNabb’s habit of throwing to RB Leonard Weaver is getting a little frustrating. Weaver isn’t quite good enough to start in most leagues, but he seems to always steal some critical yards and touchdowns from other receivers. The Giants are giving up big yardage, so there ought to be plenty to go around. Assuming DeSean Jackson returns as expected, downgrade Maclin and Avant to their previous value.

PHI: McNabb +2, Jackson +1, Maclin +1, Avant 0, Celek +2

Manning had an odd line against the Chargers — just 11 completions, and an under 50% completion rate, but he still managed 241 yards and 2 TD’s (much of that due to Brandon Jacobs 74 yard TD gallop). I’d be a little worried as the Eagles secondary is above average, but with the blitz-heavy attack, it seems likely the Giants will be able to break at least 1 or 2 long plays. Manningham disappeared last week, but for now assume he and Nicks are close in value.

NYG: Manning -1, Smith 0, Nicks -1, Manningham -1, Boss 0

Monday 8 PM game

Arizona (28th) @ San Francisco (31st)

Ahh, yeah. Expect big numbers here. Warner, Boldin, and Fitzgerald are all must starts. Steve Breaston has gotten pushed to the background a bit (and even got outproduced by Early Doucet last week), so I wouldn’t rely on him as a WR2 (but he did break a nice long punt return).

ARI: Warner +2, Boldin +2, Fitzgerald +2, Breaston -1 (0 in return yardage leagues)

The Cardinals may be a little better than their pass defense rating, but not by much. And with a legitimately stout run defense, the 49ers may be forced to go pass-heavy for the second week in a row. Crabtree can’t seem to improve on his weekly 5-6 catches for 50-60 yards. Morgan got involved again last week, but it’s too late in the season to take a chance on him.

SF: Smith +1, Crabtree +1, Morgan 0, Davis +1

Davone Bess-clearly the “Bess” receiver on the team, the man with the predator locks has emerged as a confident, productive receiver over the past few weeks.  Bess was fourth in the league last week with 14 targets and he has 25 over the past three weeks.  His monster game on Sunday during which he grabbed ten passes for 117 yards and a touchdown was clearly his most proficient game of the year, but Bess’ best may be yet to come.  He faces the abysmal Jaguars pass defense next weekend and could be a great flex play for those of you looking to gain a playoff berth.  He also faces the Titans and the Texans in the fantasy playoffs respectively.

Antonio Bryant-Bryant has come back strong from injury and he is showing why some drafted him in the middle of the pack.  Last week, he was 14^th in the league with 11 targets, catching five passes for 116 yards against Carolina.  This was an improvement on his performance against Atlanta in week 12 during which he caught three passes for 91 yards.  Bryant is a big-play guy and though I don’t like his matchup this week against the Jets, he draws Seattle and NO for the playoffs.  If he is available on waivers I would definitely go after him.

Michael Crabtree-though the former holdout has yet to have a breakout game, Crabtree has been nothing if not consistent.  Over his last four games he is averaging 4.5 catches and 60 yards per contest and last week against Seattle he grabbed six passes for 60 yards.  As the Niners’ #1 guy, Crabtree gets his share of targets and he had 13 last week, good for 6^th in the league.  Over the past three weeks, Crabtree has received 27 targets which puts him towards the top of all receivers.  Though Crabtree’s ceiling is low, if you are looking for a solid 8-12 points from your flex spot, he could be worth a look.  He also has Detroit in week 16.  It should be worth noting here that Josh Morgan has seen his targets skyrocket as well and he is fifth in RZ targets over the last three weeks (5).  Morgan could be worthy of consideration in deeper leagues.

Robert Meachem-I seem to keep coming back to him, and quite frankly, he continues to impress me.  I have owned Meachem for the last four weeks, electing to start him only once and I have regretted it.  The big knock on Meachem is his consistency, but over the last four weeks he has simply been a fantasy monster.  I think it is safe to say that he has surpassed Devery Henderson as Brees’ second favorite receiving target, and over the last three games, Meachem has commanded 19 targets, tying him with Colston for the team lead.  Meachem also gets a lot of attention in the RZ and his eight catch, 142 yard game made me a believer that he was more than just a guy who catches touchdowns.  Oh yeah, and Meachem scored yet again, bringing his touchdown total to eight, a team high.  I am definitely starting him this week against a piss porous Atlanta pass defense.

Louis Murphy-Murphy is getting a lot of hype this week due to his four catch, 128 yard and a touchdown performance last week, but I would be a reluctant to waste a waiver claim on him.  Over his last three games before last Sunday, Murphy had a total of three receptions for 51 yards.  Murphy has 18 targets over his last three games and though Gradkowski has provided a much needed spark to the Raider offense, I think the smarter waiver choice would be Meachem, Bryant, or Bess in that order.

Devin Thomas-Thomas was targeted eight times on Sunday and twice in the RZ.  Thomas made good on seven of those targets, garnering 100 yards and two touchdowns.  Like Murphy, Thomas has not been particularly productive aside from last week’s game, but he has been more of a consistent contributor to his team’s offense.  The Skin’s play Oakland, NYG, and Dallas in the coming weeks, which means that Thomas could have some value in the playoffs.  His 21 targets over the last three games should also raise some eyebrows and even if you can’t find a spot for him on your roster this year, he could be an intriguing option for next year in keeper leagues.

Devin Hester-over the past three weeks, Hester has all but vanished from fantasy relevancy.  This is largely due to his lack of targets as he has only 16 targets over the last three games, tying him with teammate Earl Bennett and putting him just two ahead of Johnny Knox.  Over that same span, Hester has only managed a total of five catches for 86 yards and zero touchdowns.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like things will get much better for Hester who draws Green Bay, Baltimore, and Minnesota over the next three weeks.

Pierre Garcon-once again, Garcon is on the list after another stellar performance against a tough Tennessee defense on Sunday during which he caught six passes for 136 yards.  More importantly, Garcon’s targets have been increasing steadily and over the last three games Garcon has surpassed Wayne in that category (27 to 24 respectively).  Though Wayne is clearly the man, Garcon deserves to be started weekly at a WR 2 or flex spot depending on the matchup.

Target Trends Over the Last Three Weeks

Potentially Available Players With Over 25 Targets and Their Rank in the League

7. Brandon Gibson (30)

10. Mohammed Massaquoi (29)

11. Donnie Avery (29)

17. Pierre Garcon (27)

17. Kenny Britt (27)

17. Michael Crabtree (27)

25. Davone Bess (25)

#1 Guys With Under 20 Targets and Their Rank in the League

40. Nate Burleson (20)

40. Housh (20)

45. Marques Colston (19)

47. Vincent Jackson (18)

47. Roy Williams (18)

57. Devin Hester (16)

71. Greg Jennings (14)

Top 5 RZ Targets

1. Brandon Marshall (12)

2. Andre Johnson (9)

3. Pierre Garcon (8)

4. Santana Moss (7)

5. Josh Morgan (6)

Jerome Harrison, the perennial Razzball add/drop/add, looks like he is finally out of Mangini’s dog house/pound/insert dog enclosure metaphor.  Of course he scored 2 touchdowns while napping on my bench.  I’ve mentioned it before, but now that we know who will get the work with Jamal Lewis out, the Browns have great week 15/16 matchups with the Chiefs and Raiders.  If Harrison is still available, he is a must add.

Vincent Jackson: Wha Happened!? He has been in a major funk recently while Rivers hasn’t missed a beat.  Wide receivers do this, but it’s been a long while since he had a big game.  It’s tough not to start him, but you at least have to start thinkin’ on it.

Alex Smith: He may . . . may have turned a corner. He had a couple touchdowns and over 300 yards up in Seattle.  Yes Seattle’s pass defense is horrid, but Smith has looked good and they seem to feel better throwing the ball than running it (sorry Frank Gore).  If you need a week 16 QB he’s your man.  He gets the Lions.

Matt Ryan: He was wearing slacks, a cardigan, and a walking boot on the sideline during Sunday’s game. It doesn’t look good for him the rest of the season so if you somehow made it to the playoffs with him, make sure you grab some quarterbacks who can walk.

Matt Schaub: He dislocated his non-throwing shoulder and left the game for a while to get Mr. Miagi’d (aka shot full of pain killers). Maybe Mr. Miagi was so high his hands were oozing pain numbing drugs? Anyway, this is a little disconcerting.  He has a good schedule and he probably got you into the playoffs, but he could easily get taken out of a game with another good hit.  If you own Schaub pick up some matchup plays for the playoffs.

Correll Buckhalter: 12 carries for 113 yards is a decent per carry average.  If my math is correct it’s about 30 yards a carry?  That’s off the top of my head. How is this guy faster now that he’s old?  But sadly for him Moreno is still the man and got 2 touchdowns to Bucky’s zero.

Robert Meachem: His one catch, one TD days seem to be behind him.  Now he’s onto 8 catch, 142 yard, 1 passing TD, 44 yard fumble return TD days.  The Saints will tease you with their wide receivers, but Meachem has a nose for the end zone and now is getting more targets.  If somehow he is still on the waiver wire he is a must grab.

Laurence Maroney: Hey hold on there Bill! What’s this about giving Sammy Morris so many carries, and key ones at that? Maroney was a TD machine and then you go and give the ball to Morris, come on!  Look at their names? Who has the cooler name?  Thought so! Maroney only saw the ball twice after halftime while Morris got the ball eight times.  Bill, you are a killer of running back dreams sir.

Antonio Bryant: Ok, he’s up to his old tricks.  5 catches for 118 yards against a good Carolina pass defense? Last year he went nuts toward the end of the season.  He’s probably not available, but he’s getting into must start territory.  But of course he gets Revis next week which makes him must sit material! Thankfully after that he gets Seattle which is quickly becoming the a top matchup play.

Devin Thomas: 7 catches, 100 yards, and 2 touchdowns.  Not bad, but Washington isn’t actually known for scoring more than 10 points a game.  He’s a tentative add if you are in the market for a #3 receiver.

Calvin Johnson: The old Megatron showed up on earth to star in a feature film.  Here’s hoping that there is a sequel or 4.  Stafford could be out next week, but I really don’t see Culpepper hurting his value much.

Chris Johnson: He’s still on pace for a ton of yards and I bet Fisher will want to get him to 2,000.  It will be fun watching him next week against the Rams where he will destroy their will to live.

Davone Bess: He keeps showing flashes and Henne seems to like him.  He will continue to be a good start in ppr leagues from here on out.  Oh, and New England can’t stop anybody from passing.

Roddy White: He caught 9 passes for 104 yards and a pure garbage TD.  Redman seems to like throwing to him and his knee looks ok so hopefully he’ll continue to get targets and put up serviceable numbers.

Jerious Norwood: Well, he got the start over Snelling.  Yep, that’s the only good thing that happened to him.  Wow, the Falcons couldn’t run the ball to save their lives.  I debated a lot over those Snelling or Norwood start/sit questions.  It didn’t really matter huh? I can’t say I’d be too keen on playing either right now.

Greg Olsen: 2 catches for 1 yard.

Chad Henne: He put up big numbers on the Patriots who can’t seem to pin point their heads when they are on the road.  Henne is playing well and could be a matchup play going forward.

Leonard Weaver: He continues to dip into Lesean McCoy’s numbers and this time he gained over 100 total yards as the Eagles embarrassed the Falcons.  McCoy sat for a quarter of the game so it’s not time to go Weaver crazy, but if you are in a cavernous league he is productive.

Andre Johnson: 99 yards and a TD are good, but if you get a bonus for 100 yard games you may not be as happy.  I think I’m boycotting all 100 yard bonus leagues next year.  Why is 99 yards that much worse than 100? Tell me!? Yeah, I own AJ.

Santonio Holmes: He’s been on a bit of a tear recently.  Hasn’t seemed to help the Steelers beat even the worst of all possible teams, but hey, we’re fantasy players here!  Take your 149 yards and a TD and be happy! Oh, unless you get a bonus for 150 yards, if so, get a little pissed.

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez: At home against a poor Jags secondary with Cotchery and Marshall healthy.  He’s worth a start over Alex Smith, oh wait, he already sucked all your potential fantasy points out of your team.

Vince Young: This recommendation comes to you via the ground instead of the air.  Young can run and the Bisons cannot tackle people who run.  Just hope he doesn’t try to throw too often.

Josh Freeman: Miami is not good at stopping the pass.  Freeman showed some brass ones against the packers last Sunday.  Miami should be able to control the clock and keep Freeman off the field, but I could see him throwing a strike to Winslow and Stroughter.

Running Backs

Rock Cartwright: The forgotten Cartwright brother should get some looks with Ladell Betts’ foot hurting. Denver is tough, but maybe you have Jacobs, Bradshaw, Slaton, Portis and a possible non-starting Deangelo Williams on your team.  Oh hell, just give up.

Kevin Faulk: You never know when he’ll grab a TD.  The heroes from this Pats/Colts game will probably be the ones you least expect.

Kolby Smith: He could get goal line carries if the Chiefs get any.

Wide Receivers

Robert Meachem: With Lance Moore out and the Saints facing the Rams he is a good play.  He’s owned in 23% of yahoo leagues which means he’s owned in about half of active leagues.

Davone Bess: He’s getting the targets as of late and gets a bad Tampa Bay defense to help him out.

Sammie Stroughter: He has a lot of speed and Freeman likes him. He’s worth a flier if you need another S.S. to compliment the Steve Smiths on your team.

Tight Ends

Brandon Pettigrew: There’s a chance he’s not a free agent, but if he is and you’re wavering about your TE, you can’t go wrong with whoever is going againt the Vikings. They are giving up the most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Gary Barnidge: He plays for Carolina if you are wondering.  And he’s better than Dante Rosario who is in the process of getting Wally Pipped.  Add to that the Falcons have given up the most yards to tight ends in the league.

Bo Scaife: He’s not great by any means, but the Bills are tough against wide receivers.  I expect Young to hand it off often, run it often, and check it down often.  Scaife should get some looks.

Defenses

Tennessee: They have been looking better as of late and with CJ running all over Buffalo the defense should have time to rest up for the QB stylings of Trent Edwards.

Atlanta: Carolina has Jake Delhomme, that always helps, but if Deangelo Williams is out that really boosts Atlanta’s D and they will be a sneaky play.

Oakland: Greg Ellis should be back which will help a little. KC will be passing and I could see some picks in this game, on both sides! Oakland has played much better at home and if you are desperate you can throw them out there and hope they stay upright.

Buy and Sell

If your trade deadline hasn’t already passed it probably will this coming week. I am going to lay out the prime targets you should be buying or selling. There are going to be some obvious ones on here.

Buy High

Andre Johnson/Fitzgerald/Wayne: These are the three receivers I’m laying out there as the best of the best going forward. Nothing mind blowing here. Johnson and Fitzgerald, in particular, have RIDICULOUS playoff schedules.

MJD/AP/Ronnie Brown/Ray Rice/Chris Johnson/DeAngelo Williams: This opens up a can of worms about other guys I left out/dudes that arguably shouldn’t be in this group. Nabbing any of these uber-elite players should certainly help your chances of going deep in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers/Drew Brees: This is the same grouping except for quarterbacks. It’ll probably be difficult to pry them away from their owners unless they have a really good secondary quarterback.

Vincent Jackson: Speaking of sweet playoff schedules….. Jackson started off the season hot and hasn’t slowed down since. The playoff schedule is right in your wheelhouse. I’m buying all day on him.

Sell High

Marion Barber: The whole world’s convinced that Barber’s multiple injuries are behind him. Sweet. Now you can unload him in case the masses are wrong (which happens OFTEN). I really am just not a big believer in messing around with injured players. This is an ideal situation because his value has recovered so you can get enough for him.

Miles Austin: Why you hatin’ on the Cowboys, yo? Here’s a great rule of thumb for you- whatever ESPN Analcysts profess, expect the opposite. The Cowboys are the greatest team ever- allegedly. Look they implode every year. Zero leadership, zero discipline. I’ll go out on that ledge right now. Even if you don’t agree with me you should be selling Miles Austin for the right price.

DeSean Jackson: He just isn’t getting enough catches. It’s tough to recommend selling him because he’s such a game breaker but the Eagles are too keen on spreading the wealth. Their Marxist-Lenninist philosophy leaves too many questions unanswered going in to the fantasy playoffs for me.

Ricky Williams: I’ve seen him dealt at a very high value in a lot of trades. There’s no reason to dislike what he’s done so far but the touches aren’t where you’d like them. If it weren’t for some longish touchdown runs in some games his production would be a lot lower than it is right now. If you can get value I’d feel very good about dealing him.

Hines Ward: He can’t possibly be this productive all season. I’m just saying…

Mario Manningham: Not that you’re going to get a ton for him or anything but unless you’re in a keeper league I’d look to deal him as part of a multi-player deal. The later in the year it gets in Giants stadium the harder it gets to throw the football. Add to that Steve Smith is clearly the #1 and Hakeem Nicks is getting more and more targets since getting healthy.

Buy Low

Brandon Jacobs: I hate Brandon Jacobs, the New York Giants, and everything that either one of them love. But the reality is that Jacobs has to be better going forward than he has been to this point. Bradshaw won’t usurp him as the #1 guy (a broken foot tends to make it harder to play football) and the Giants offense should be able to score points consistently.

Anquan Boldin: It’s time for Boldin to stud it up. I’m not going to go on a long diatribe and repeat myself from previous weeks. If you’re going to place a wager throw it down on this guy.

Beanie Wells: I’m buying Cardinals whenever I get a chance. The schedule is too good.  Wells has been a tough trade target because of his potential, but Hightower keeps doing his thing and holding Beanie at bay.  I can’t guarantee Wells will blow up in the second half, but I think he’s worth the risk for anybody who needs to make a push to get in the playoffs.

Dwayne Bowe: Hey this is Doc speaking, Drew hates Dwayne Bowe, so he would never say to buy him; I’m going rogue here! The Chiefs are a horrible, horrible team, but with LJ gone and my man Lance Long in the slot and Chris Chambers giving some name recognition to the #2 position I see ex-Pat Haley going for a pass heavy offense.  Does Bowe live up to his potential? No, but he shows flashes and with more opportunities even a blind squirrel can find a nut. His schedule isn’t great, but I think he can be had for cheap and Asomugha may make him even cheaper.  If you are looking to shake things up, take a flier on him.

Sell Low

LaDanian Tomlinson: His value has recovered somewhat; take what you can get now and run with it. He just doesn’t look strong running the football. It’s sad to see such a great player on the decline but its happening. Oh well, Hall of Fame shouldn’t be that bad.

Steve Smith (CAR): You might be able to trick someone into thinking that he isn’t bad anymore. Hopefully he’ll score a couple touchdowns today and boost his value up.

Greg Jennings: Deep threat receiver with a quarterback who might get sacked a record number of times. I tried to come up with something to like about his situation but I got nuttin.

Matt Ryan: He’s going to be great quarterback. In long term keeper leagues it’s legitimate to want to hang on to him. Otherwise his schedule the rest of the way is horrible and you should move him if the value’s there.

Roddy White: High up on the list of dudes you don’t want heading in to the playoffs in fantasy football, particularly as a high round pick. If you can get something decent in return I’d feel pretty good about it.

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Week 5 Matchup Savers

Quarterback:

Shaun Hill- The 49’ers are facing a relatively soft Houston defense. Hopefully Frank Gore will come back healthy and take some pressure off Hill. It will be interesting to see how Crabtree plays. Hill had a few really solid games early on in the season and I think he has some more left in him.

Chad Henne- The Dolphins are going to have their hands full with New Orleans this week. If they get behind they will be forced to throw the football and that bodes well for Henne’s fantasy numbers. He has looked surprisingly good out there.

This is it for guys that are probably on your waiver wire with favorable matchups for the week. Usually there are a few more but if one of these two isn’t available you’re not going to like what else is out there!

Running Back:

Justin Fargas- He shouldn’t be available in your league since he’s a starter but he might be. The matchup against the Jets isn’t too bad either. They just lost Jenkins for the season and that is going to wreak havoc on their ability to stop the run.

Kevin Faulk- (for PPR) Sammy Morris has been ruled out for this game so maybe Faulk will get a few more touches in there. He is basically a lock for 5 points with upside to get you 15.

Jamaal Charles- The Chiefs are playing the Chargers, a team that has a prolific offense but a suspect run defense. If the Chiefs are smart they’ll run the ball heavily which bodes well for Charles getting some carries. I would expect 10-15 total touches from him.

Brandon Jackson- As Doc alluded to in his column the Packers appear to be weighing their options at RB. Not good if you own Ryan Grant. Jackson might get an opportunity to showcase his skills.

Wide Receiver

Austin Collie- He’s probably not available in your league, but if he is, grab him and throw him in there against St. Louis; you have to love the entire Colts offense in this game.

Michael Jenkins- Should be available in most leagues. He has solid projections for this week.

Davone Bess- I really like him going forward. The Dolphins are going to have to throw the football in this game and he should benefit from that.

Greg Camarillo- See Davone Bess above.

David Clowney- With Cotchery out Clowney is the default #2. Edwards should get blanketed all game, freeing Clowney up for some opportunities.

Mark Bradley- It’s not that I love him or his matchup that much but he’s a #2 Wide Receiver and the Chargers will definitely be keying in on Dwayne Bowe.

Tight End

Anthony Fasano- I like the Dolphins wide receivers because I think they’ll have to throw the football and I’m going with the same logic for Fasano this week.

Benjamin Watson- You have to love anyone on the offensive side of the football for New England this week with the cupcake matchup against the Buccaneers looming.

Kevin Boss- I am not totally crazy about KB necessarily but we’re talking about spot starting tight ends here.

Randy McMichael- Going along the same theme of “his team will be getting slaughtered and will have to throw the football.”

D/ST

Indianapolis- I wish instead of picking a team defense you could pick against a certain teams offense for the season. I would have taken “any defense playing against St. Louis” in like the 3^rd round.

Buffalo- The Bills are not a very good defense so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers lit them up. That being said Carolina is a turnover factory and that’s the big thing I look for in matchups.

Dallas- I’m not excited about this matchup against Atlanta but in every fantasy league there are idiots who hoard defenses, leaving very undesirable ones on the wire.

Alright so now it’s time for our watch list of players to either trade and get or look to unload from our teams depending on what happens this weekend.

Buy High

Adrian Peterson- Sometimes you have to state the obvious. Purple Jesus is a beast, flat out. If his owner is struggling with depth you might be able to get in him in a 2 for 1, 3 for 2, or some other multi-player deal. I am not a big advocate of trading for stud running backs in general because of the injury factor but there are exceptions to every rule.

Ronnie Brown- He has a very good chance of finishing in the top 5 in Fantasy this season. I would rather own him than any of the backs that were first round choices this year except AP. Doc predicted that he would be huge this season but I wasn’t as bullish; I didn’t draft him on any of my teams and now I wish I had listened.

Larry Fitzgerald- I called ESPN out a few weeks ago when they ran this column about how Larry Fitz isn’t the stud he was before because there are too many other guys in Arizona and blah, blah, blah. This is the guy, right here that is going to carry you in the playoffs this season. This is the Cardinals schedule:  @Detroit in week 15 then home against St. Louis in week 16! Are you kidding me?

Philip Rivers- Such a stud. I know there’s not a lot of trading that takes place involving the elite quarterbacks unless you’re in a 2 QB league but if you need to shore yourself up there I would definitely take a look at Rivers.

Brandon Marshall- He is going to put up super-elite WR digits from here on out and his acquisition cost is substantially less than the other guys on this level like Fitz and Andre Johnson.

Reggie Wayne- I loves me some Reggie Wayne. Week in and week out he’s going to give you double digits or more. Defenses know they can’t just load up to try and shut down Wayne because Manning will gauge them elsewhere.

Sell High

Thomas Jones- His production has been so big that everyone is starting to overlook the mileage on him. There’s no reason why you shouldn’t be able to get something really valuable in trade and I would take it just to eliminate risk.

Steve Smith (NYG) – I would only trade him if someone’s willing to give you good value. He is obviously way better than his preseason ranking but I just don’t believe that he’ll finish the season leading the league in receptions and yards. In a keeper league with retention costs you have to hold on to him though.

Aaron Rodgers- The offensive line issue is just too scary in Green Bay. It’s too bad because this is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The odds of him getting injured are huge unless they are able to protect him better. He also has a very, very tough fantasy playoff schedule.

Hines Ward- He has been a steady, productive fantasy receiver for years. He has been so huge this season, benefiting from the pass happy Steelers offense. The problem is Mike Tomlin may seek to balance things out more and they also have two other really good young receivers in Pittsburgh.

Buy Low

Anquan Boldin- It looks like he won’t  play this week. Above, I discussed the ridiculously easy schedule for the Cardinals during the fantasy playoffs. Boldin always seems to be battling injuries but he is a warrior- he will fight through it and be productive.

Jerome Harrison- It is only a matter of time before Jamal Lewis gets hurt again or is completely useless. Harrison is the guy in Cleveland; maybe I’ll turn out to be wrong on this one but I’m taking a stand.

Calvin Johnson- He’s on a bye week, and that’s after missing last week’s game due to injury. Both he and Stafford should be back after this. There are no guarantees that he will deliver like he did last year but you have to take chances to win and if you’re going to take a chance this is the guy to do it on.

Jerricho Cotchery- He is going to miss this Sunday’s game. I still love him relative to value right now because of the “Braylon Edwards Effect” that I have talked about in previous columns. Mark Sanchez will improve over the course of the season and I see Cotchery posting several double-digit games.

Sell Low

Ryan Grant- I talked about this situation above when I touted Brandon Jackson. Grant’s days as the feature back in Green Bay might be numbered. He could turn it around and hold on to his job but I would trade him now while you can still get good value for him.

Larry Johnson- He’ll be on here all season just to remind all of his owners that you’re playing with fire by not dealing him. The production has been decent this season- don’t get greedy!

Clinton Portis- see Larry Johnson

Willis McGahee- For non-PPR this is a little bit different since touchdown vultures are a lot more valuable. But in PPR get rid of him and get whatever you can out of the deal.

Marion Barber- Injured running backs are terrifying to me. His value has plummeted significantly but if he stays relatively healthy there might be a good game in his future. Once that happens you’d better ship him out.

Terrell Owens- I may just have him in this category until the trade deadline!