Fantasy Football Advice

The best wide receivers usually stay that way, thankfully, but us fantasy footballers have to roster quite a few wide receivers which means we have to grab value late.  I have our first 45 receivers up here today.  We’ll be adding even more, but this post was getting to be too tome-like.  And I teach the ADD riddled youth of America and know not to go on too long.

Tier 1

1. Andre Johnson 29 — The best receiver with the best situation.

2. Larry Fitzgerald 27 — He will make Leinart better.  He makes me better and I live on my couch.

3. Calvin Johnson 25 — Too young and talented not to rank high.  I think Stafford will pan out.

Tier 2

4. Vincent Jackson 27 — As long as he can keep from getting DUI’s, Rivers to Jackson will become annoying.

5. Reggie Wayne 31 — He’s rock steady.

6. Miles Austin 26 — I liked what I saw out of Austin last season and Romo continues to improve.

7. Brandon Marshall 26 — Not sure where he’ll end up, but he’s still young and very good and possibly a butt-head.

8. Roddy White 28 — He’s the main man in Atlanta.  Not much competition for catches.

Tier 3

9. Randy Moss 32 — He’s old, but has a few good years left.

10. DeSean Jackson 23 — He’s very young and very fast, but Maclin should steal from him.

11. Greg Jennings 27 — He’ll be living in Mr. Rodgers’ hood for years to come.

12. Marques Colston 27 — Great skills, but Brees spreads the ball around a little too much, bastard.

13. Santonio Holmes 26 — As long as Big Ben isn’t incarcerated he’ll be steady.

Tier 4

14. Michael Crabtree 23 –  He looked good even after couch sitting for part of the season.

15. Sidney Rice 24 — If his QB sitch was more stable he’d be higher.

16. Hakeem Nicks 22 – He looks poised to break out and continue to do so.

Tier 5

17. Steve Smith (CAR) 31 – How do I trust him? Dunno, but I know Moore does.

18. Wes Welker 29 – Too good too drop far because of his injury.

19. Steve Smith (NYG) 25 –This other Steve will go higher in ppr leagues.

20. Dwayne Bowe 26 – He has his troubles, but he is too good not to grab in the top 20.

21. Anquan Boldin 29 – Hard to put him this low, but he’s aging and been beat up.

Tier 6

22. Mike Sims-Walker 25 – He has the skill to thrill.

23. Percy Harvin 22 – His potential will be hard to live up to, but he has the potential to, uh, you know.

24. Chad Ochocinco 32 – Getting oldish, but he should continue to do what he do.

25. Pierre Garcon 24 – Looks like he Pipped Gonzalez.

26. Jeremy Maclin 22 – Young and on a pass first offense.

Tier 7

27. Robert Meachem 26 – Saints’ receivers are scary, but he showed his worth last season.

28. Kenny Britt 22 – He’s currently behind Gage and Washington, but not for long.

29. Eddie Royal 24 – McDaniels pulled a McDaniels on him, but he should turn it around.

30. Steve Breaston 27 – The #2 in Zona won’t be as productive as recent years, but he’s still good.

31. Devin Aromashodu 26 – His status next season isn’t a given, but I believe he’ll be the #1.

Tier 8

32. Braylon Edwards 27 – He is who he is.

33. Jerricho Cotchery 28 – More reliable than Edwards, but not as much upside (or the coinciding down side).

34. Hines Ward 34 – I love old, steady players in redrafts, but tough to foresee how long they’ll be around in dy-nastys.

35. Donald Driver 35 – Look up a centimeter.

Tier 9

36. Johnny Knox 23 – He will be the deep threat for Cutler and with Martz he should get his shots.

37. Mike Wallace 24 – He will be hit and miss with Ward in the picture, but his hits are usually TD’s.

38. Jacoby Jones 26 – Bringing Kevin Walter back hurts, but I think he’ll beat him out or up.

39. Malcolm Floyd 29 – He’s the #2 WR in a pass heavy offense.

Tier 10

40. Julian Edelman 24 – Tough to gauge his worth, but you know he’ll be good for the first half of next season.

41. Terrell Owens 36 – Depends on where he ends up, but he’s TOld.

42. Austin Collie 24 – If he’s in the slot and Peyton is throwing to him, well, you get it.

43. T.J. Houshmandzadeh 33 – Not even sure he should be this high, but Carroll’s offense will be pass happy.

44. Antonio Bryant 29 – I like him even if he is a freak.

45. Nate Burleson 29 – He should be happy to be across from Megatron.  Just hope he stays healthy.

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.

Sleeper Disclaimer: Although these are players that ought to be undervalued due to poor performance or injury in 2009, there might be a lot of hype swarming around them preseason. In this case the player has been “de-sleepered” and we don’t want them because our whole objective is to get undervalued players. Here at Razzball we will have extensive pre-draft coverage and go over all this.

In a previous post I discussed why DeSean Jackson could be a disappointment in 2010 for Fantasy. I am a big believer in managing your risk in order to produce consistently. We don’t want our scores to fluctuate drastically from week to week because we’ll lose more games that way.

A critical strategy in managing your risk is to avoid owning players on the same team unless you have an extremely good reason to do so (i.e. they are both huge Sleepers, you are handcuffing, etc.) I am going to dedicate a post to this whole concept and why I am right about it.

The reason I bring this up is both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are attractive players in 2010 Fantasy football. Since I’m not willing to own both and take on more risk, however, I need to choose between the two. In this type of dilemma I go with whichever player offers more upside.

DeSean Jackson will probably have the same type of year in 2010 that he had in 2009, perhaps not quite as good (still very solid, though). Jeremy Maclin should have a monster season and can be drafted MUCH later than Jackson. He has a lot more upside and thus I’ll be skipping over DeSean Jackson (who I owned in every league last year) and targeting Maclin in all my drafts.

Dude, what’s the deal with your ridiculous man-crush on Maclin? Am I gonna have to read about this constantly in your Razzball pre-draft coverage? Unless McNabb gets traded the system in Philadelphia is set up perfectly for a receiver like Maclin. Even if McNabb gets traded the system is favorable. And yes, you’re going to have to listen to it because I preach about the players that are the best value and Maclin fits the bill.

Entering the 2009 season there was some hype surrounding Maclin. He was a high round pick, had a great pedigree, and was a receiver (which the Eagles never seem to have enough of). He was drafted in the middle rounds in most leagues. The early part of the season Maclin’s production was basically nothing. He didn’t see the field nearly as much as anticipated and Donovan McNabb was giving him a lot of looks when he was in. Through the first 4 weeks he only had 6 catches for 45 yards with no touchdowns (although one of those weeks was a Bye). Many people, myself included, ending up dropping him in favor of better Sleepers. It looked like Maclin wouldn’t be relevant at all for 2009.

Beginning in week 5 Maclin went on a tear. Through the final 13 games he had 49 catches for 717 yards and 4 touchdowns.

I certainly think Maclin is capable of that pace or more for 2010. Don’t forget that he caught 7 balls for 146 yards and touchdown in the Eagles only playoff game. Even if he simply maintained his 2009 regular season production from week 5 on he’d rack up about 60 catches for over 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns. That is a solid year in and of itself but remember: there’s upside!!!!!!

So let’s consider all the factors. Maclin has the pedigree, work ethic, physical tools, stable organization, superb passing attack, etc. He has everything we look for in a Sleeper. In 2010 he is a player you must target in your draft(s).

For 2009 I touted DeSean Jackson as a “must add” to your Fantasy squad. There is an inevitable cycle; a player is a Sleeper, he breaks out, the next season he’s overvalued. This means that often we will only end up owning a player for one season at a time.

DeSean Jackson will have a great year in 2010. He’ll be rated as one of the top receivers and drafted in the late 2^nd, early 3^rd round in most 12 team leagues. In PPR, which most of us play, he could disappoint. Not catastrophically, mind you, but at that spot in the draft I think we’ll be able to get more upside.

In 2009 I thought that the Eagles would look to put the ball in his hands 80+ times. It appeared that he had the potential to be used in the short and intermediate passing game as well as being a deep threat. Ultimately he was primarily a deep threat and ended up having a monster year for that “type” of player.

The problem with all of this for 2010 is big plays have a lot of variance. Jackson will be drafted under the assumption that he will hit as many “home run” type plays as he did the year before. When you look at the number of touchdowns he scored and how much yardage he covered on those plays there’s reason for concern. You have to ask yourself “what are the chances of him being able to improve upon those numbers.”

In 2009 Jackson posted 63 catches for 1,167 yards and 9 touchdowns. He added 2 return touchdowns (some leagues count those, others don’t).

Any reasonable person’s response to that would be “almost no chance unless the Eagles decide to get him involved in shorter routes the way we assumed in 2009.” So his yardage and touchdowns will almost certainly decline unless the receptions spike.

As an Eagles fan I would love Jackson to repeat his 2009 performance. I don’t feel that he needs to, however, in order for them to be successful. I will be writing a Sleeper post on Jeremy Maclin, who I think might be the best Sleeper at Wide Receiver in 2010. He won’t be a late round pick that comes “out of nowhere” but he offers guaranteed production in the mid rounds with enormous upside.

I’m not a big fan of wide receivers.  They are predictably unpredictable and they often sulk and whine more than they’re worth.  Ask Mr. Matt Millen how things go when you try to build a team around wide receivers.  Oh, Oh and sixteen, hmmm, that sounds rather putrid.  But before I bash wide receivers into oblivion there are some monsters out there that I can handle.  Andre Johnson being numero uno.  The man is a beast of beast-like proportions and is my #1 WR pick next season come hell or high water.

1. Andre Johnson: After Owen Daniels went down AJ was the only receiver worth throwing to which made him the most targeted receiver in the league.  There’s a chance Kevin Walter will find his way out of Houston this offseason and Jacoby Jones could be lining up opposite AJ.  If Jones flourishes in that role AJ could lose some of those targets, but be in line for more TD opportunities. Preseason Rank #2, 2009 Projections:  1450/13,  Final Numbers:  1569/9

2. Randy Moss: Moss’ ability to score keeps him in elite status once again this season.  I had him at #1 based on his TD ability and Tom Brady being the comeback player of the year, but they never clicked completely.  If you owned Moss you were happy with his production, but even with him turning out to be the #2 receiver this season you probably cussed him a few times.  This is what receivers do; it’s good to remember that, while you were cussing him, he was putting up #2 stats, no, not poo stats, gross.  Preseason Rank #1, 2009 Projections:  1450/14  Final Numbers:  1264/13

3. Miles Austin: Austin was by far the steal of the draft or waiver wire this season.  In preseason there was a lot of talk about him and Sam Hurd, but they both had Crayton and Williams ahead of them.  And it wasn’t until week 5 that Williams sat out with an injury that Miles Austin tore KC a new one.  Before that game I said, “I’m hoping Williams sits because I see a very big game from Austin against the KC corners if he does.” And that’s me quoting me saying something prophetic for once. That was the start of his amazing run and there is absolutely no reason to believe it won’t continue next season.  Preseason Rank DNR Final Numbers: 1320/11

4. Desean Jackson: DJax was a bit of a wildcard coming into this season.   We knew he had the skills, but in Andy Reid’s offense it is sometimes difficult to put up elite individual receiving numbers, but Fraction Jackson did just that by having huge gain after huge gain. He will have a solid season in 2010, but I doubt I’ll want him where his ADP falls.   Preseason Rank #20, 2009 Projections:  1000/7 Final Numbers: 1167/9 — 137/1

5. Larry Fitzgerald: Fitzy was often the #1 receiver taken last season.  I had him behind Moss and AJ and I’ll probably do the same again for next season.  He’s an amazing talent, but unless he’s the only real playmaker on an offense, it is difficult to rank him at the top. Anquan Boldin could be traded this offseason and that could help Fitz’s numbers, but it’s pure speculation at this point, oh, and if Warner retires, start throwing the babies out with the bath water.  Preseason Rank #3, 2009 Projections: 1350/12  Final Numbers: 1092/13

6. Reggie Wayne: Wayne is as steady as a glacier pre-global warming.  Just like any receiver he will have down games, well any athlete ever in the entire history of athletes has down games.  I was fairly close on his numbers, just 64 yards off.  As long as Wayne has Manning and legs and hands he’ll be fantasy worthy.  I really thought Anthony Gonzalez was going to take away some of Wayne’s numbers, but we never got to see him have a chance at that.   Preseason Rank #7, 2009 Projections: 1200/10 Final Numbers: 1264/10

7. Roddy White: Both White and Matt Ryan were hurt at points this season, plus they had an extremely tough schedule.  It is actually a little surprising that he finished as high as he did.  I can tell you I am looking forward to drafting him next season.  Him and Ryan.  A lot depends on his perceived value, but I think I perceive his value as being higher than the public at large. Preseason Rank #5, 2009 Projections: 1300/10 Final Numbers: 1153/11

8. Sidney Rice: Okay, Rice blindsided me for sure.  He was not on my radar and I have to freely admit that. Watching him play this year has made me and about everyone in existence a believer.  His play is helped in large part by Favre believing in his ability.  Even if Favre doesn’t return, Rice has proven his ability and shouldn’t have to prove himself to any other quarterback. So he won’t be worthless if Favre leaves, but he will lose some value.  Preseason Rank DNR Final Numbers:

9. Vincent Jackson: Jackson lived up to his potential this season.  The lack of a running game helped his numbers a little, but he’s got the talent to put these kind of numbers up consistently.  Next season the Chargers probably won’t have much of a running game (oh Michael Turner where are you?) and VJax should put up similar numbers.   Preseason Rank #13, 2009 Projections: 975/9  Final Numbers: 1167/9

10. Brandon Marshall: He had his problems in preseason, but still put up top 10 numbers. I grabbed him in a few leagues for good value this year with the knowledge that anything could happen.  Who knows where he’ll be or how risky he’ll seem once draft day comes around next season.  Unless he’s in jail, I will feel good about drafting him.  Preseason Rank #15, 2009 Projections:  1050/7 Final Numbers: 1120/10