Fantasy Football Advice

I can’t speak to the job security of Mike Martz and the rest of the Chicago Bears coaching staff after this season, but I can speak for the results of Mr. Martz’s offensive scheme and that is a lot of yardage for quarterbacks and wide receivers and sometimes a Super Bowl, horrible seasons and bacterial heart infections.

Even before Martz became the de facto offensive coordinator for the Bears after nobody else wanted the job, Devin Aromashodu was starting to make sportswriter’s jobs more difficult by needing to spell his name correctly. Aroma, as in the smell and shodu, as in “you shodu smell.”  In the last 4 games of the season he had 39 targets, 22 receptions, 282 yards and 4 touchdowns.  In the previous 12 games he had a whopping 2 receptions, which mainly came about due to a quad injury and the play of Johnny Knox.

The Bears’ wide receivers were actually better than expected, which means they didn’t curl up in the fetal position after each snap.  Johnny Knox has the speed to be a huge deep threat, Earl Bennett had the tenacity to go over the middle and Hester had an all around good season, but was injured toward the end.  In Martz’s system Hester would fit in the slot well, which would give him more time to work on returning punts, and he says that he wants to cut down on some receiving duties if it can help him return to his punt returner dominance.  That’s weird, but good news for Aromashodu.  If Hester isn’t the #1 receiver, who is?

Just about any sized receiver can be the man in a Martz based system, but who usually becomes the man?  Roy Williams and Torry Holt? Yeah.  These aren’t Hester sized men.  When free slinging Jay Cutler got the 6′ 2″ Aromashodu in the offense, he went to him early and often.  I see Knox and Aromashodu lining up wide with Hester and Bennett in the slot.  Martz called Knox his “diamond” and this could even be a sleeper post for him, but Aromashodu has size and the confidence of his quarterback.  If he learns Martz’s system well, there is no limit to what he can do next season.

He may not be a “sleeper” by ADP standards come August, but I see him holding his value even if he is riding a big hype machine.  The Martz offense has room for multiple 1,000 yard receivers so you may even see a Johnny Knox sleeper post in the near future.  He could be more of your proto-typical sleeper, but he will also be a bit hit and miss.  I’m not ashamed to get on the Martz bandwagon.  Mike Furrey had over 1,000 yards with Jon Kitna throwing to him.  Kitna! Furrey!

The Super Bowl is near and as usual I’m ready for it way before it starts.  I’ve tried my best to stay away from the hype, but it will be hard come the weekend.  I really want to hear more about how Hank Baskett thinks his wife is hotter than Reggie Bush’s girlfriend.  And how many times Dwight Freeney was asked about his ankle at one setting (96 if you were wondering).  And I’m really glad that TMZ is there so I can know exactly what time players leave clubs.  So I’m hoping to catch up on It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia and maybe buy a fish tank instead of hearing more about Reggie Wayne’s neglected snake (no this isn’t going to be a Greg Oden post).

Here are some tasty morsels from around the league:

Brett Favre: After the Favre lost in the NFC championship game he made sure someone took a picture of his grotesque ankle so he could frame it, and I guess, place it over his mantle.  I am of two minds when it comes to these photos.  Yes, it’s amazing that he could play effectively with that deformed ankle, but at the same time, why do we need photos of it?  To prove how tough you are?  To show that if you hadn’t been hurting the outcome might have been different?  To elevate the Favrestique to God-like proportions?  Get over yourself Brett, you are great, but until you cut a finger off so you can play, keep your injury-porn to yourself.

Jay Cutler: It’s hard not to like Jay Cutler next season with Mike Martz coming in as offensive coordinator.  Cutler had a horrific year on many levels, but still ended up as the 12th best fantasy quarterback, ahead of the likes of future Hall of Famer Kurt Warner.  I don’t have faith in Cutler as a leader and I’m not betting on him to be the Bears’ savior, but Martz’s track record for making quarterbacks fantasy studs is too good.  He took a 34 year old Jon Kitna of the Detroit Lions and made him a 4,000 yard quarterback which gave Roy Williams over 1300 yards receiving and defensive back Mike Furrey over a thousand yards!  This bodes well for Hester, Aromashodu, Knox, and even Forte who will be catching a lot of passes, but it doesn’t bode well for young Mr. Greg Olsen.  Martz must have been diddled by a tight end in his formative years, because his offense is where TE’s go to die.

Dwight Freeney: He probably won’t practice all week and then he’ll test his ankle on Sunday to see if he can go.  I reckon we’ll see him play on third downs for as long as he can and then come out as his ankle slowly expands to Favre proportions.

Jerome Harrison: The Browns GM doesn’t think Harrison has the size to be the main back in Cleveland, but didn’t have any trouble with him being overused in the last few games because he was the Browns only decent player.  Maybe they should worry about getting a quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, and an upgrade at every position on the team before worrying about Harrison.  They could go out looking for a larger back or give James Davis more work to offset the toll on Harrison.  But I still think it’s Harrison’s job to lose and as long as he stays healthy he should get the bulk of the carries.

Jeremy Shockey: He practiced yesterday and looks like he will play and most probably injure himself again while celebrating a 10 yard gain on 3rd and 15.

Michael Vick: He says he is a top 10 quarterback and the Eagles say they want to keep him for next season.  Both lies.  Vick should believe he’s that good, but no way do the Eagles plan on keeping him as a high paid third string QB.  The Rams are looking like the front runner in the Mike Vick sweepst . . . uh, baby shower bingo.  Vick would have to be an upgrade over the craptastic law firm of Bulger, Boller and Null.  Even if he retains his erratic QB’ing skills his legs and ability to air it out will help free up Steven Jackson.

Brandon Marshall: Josh McDaniels tipped his hand when he sat Marshall down for the last game of the season.  Everybody and their dog knows that Marshall is out of there.  Couple that with his history of ass-like attitude, or assitude, they will have to give away a player who just had 101 receptions and 10 touchdowns.

Wes Welker: He just had surgery on his knee because the swelling had to go down before plunging the scalpel in. All realistic timetables for his full recovery have him coming back mid-season even though he seems to think he’ll jump off the operating table and do cartwheels all the way home.  Trying to project next season’s playing time for Julian Edelman and Wes Welker will be tough.  If the team and Edelman are doing well, they will probably make sure Welker is 110% before letting him play, which would probably involve a time machine of sorts.

Matt Leinart: It doesn’t look like the Cardinals will look for another QB to compete for the starting job this off season.  Ken Whisenhunt has given Leinart the thumbs up and they will live and die with him.  Leinart flashed some ability in preseason and there is no way they will give him the same responsibilities as Warner.  With Wells showing signs of running back goodness and Boldin possibly being traded, we will see a much more balanced offense out of Arizona.  Whiz took a young quarterback in Roethlisberger far and could do the same with Leinart, but don’t expect huge numbers from him just because he plays for the Cardinals.

Clinton Portis: He still hasn’t been cleared to think too hard due to his last concussion.  Even if the Redskins keep him they will have to find some insurance because there is no way he plays a whole season.  Willis McGahee is probably looking pretty good to them about now.

Mike Sims-Walker has been downgraded to doubtful.  I don’t doubt that he is real or anything, but I doubt that he’ll play in a nice matchup at home.  You have to downgrade Garrard even though MSW was nearly non-existent last week, in reality he was there, completely tangible.  Just his presence helped Garrard find other receivers. But do upgrade Mike Thomas against a poor Miami secondary.

Mike Bell: He didn’t practice on Friday and it looked like he wasn’t going to play but now some Saints beat writer is saying he’ll go even without practicing.  I’m guessing the beat writer was drunk and bloated on crayfish and alligator meat, but I’ve still got to take away some of my love for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush if Bell plays.

Tim Hightower: He has had a thumb injury for a couple weeks so he will still play on Monday night, but he only had 6 carries and 1 reception to Beanie Wells’ 13 carries against Minnesota.  The 49ers have a tough run defense so I would be careful about using either, but I do believe Beanie will finish the season very strong while Hightower becomes the third down back.

Donald Brown: He is out again and speculation is he has broken ribs.  If you need to make a move that might help you in the playoffs and you’re not in a keeper league I’d go ahead and drop Brown.  I doubt they’ll risk hurting him anymore when they are already so far ahead.

Vince Young: He didn’t practice on Friday, but says, “Heck yeah, you know me better than that. I’ll be out there.” Um, I’m not so sure we do know you better than that VY, but look for him to go and hand the ball to Chris Johnson a lot.

Michael Turner: He’s listed as questionable which is kind of like calling Al Davis’ draft picks questionable.  Turner will not play.  But who will start and who will get the fantasy points against a poor Saints rush defense? Why are you asking me?! Oh, right, well, Norwood should get the start again, but his hip doesn’t seem 100% and he won’t get goal line carries.  I’m not too keen on either, but I’d go with Snelling if my hand was forced.

Matt Ryan: He’s also listed as questionable when he actually has a hot intern’s chance of not getting hit on by Mike Tirico of playing.  Chris Redman will get the start again and shouldn’t hurt Roddy White which is all we really care about.

Matt Schaub: There’s been no indication that he’ll be limited against Seattle so you have to start him.  Of course he could get slammed on that recently separated shoulder, but thankfully the Seahawks don’t get to the quarterback that often.

Tom Brady: He didn’t practice much this week and is listed as questionable with injuries to his ribs, shoulder and finger.  It’s hard not to believe he’ll go, and it’s hard to sit him unless you have a very good backup and even then it’ll be tough.

Steven Jackson: He practiced a little bit on Friday which is better than the last 2 weeks.  And by “little bit,” I mean he jogged from the hot tub to the burrito cart and back.  Just like always, you have to start him if he does.

Justin Forsett: He isn’t on the injury report so we should get a chance to see how he will be used the rest of the season. I expect a fairly even split between him and Jones and neither is a great start, but Forsett would be the only one I would take a risk on.

DeSean Jackson: He practiced all week and is a good start after taking a week off with a concussion. The Giants’ pass defense has been ugly as of late.

Albert Haynesworth: His off again, on again season is off again and add to that DeAngelo Hall is out and you have a perfect shizz storm for the Redskins to get beat in the black hole and that would have to hurt. Does this mean you go and start Michael Bush and Heyward Bey even though he is out? No, but I do think if you were looking to spot start the Skins defense I would have second thoughts.

Jeremy Maclin: He practiced on Friday and is listed as questionable. He’ll probably play, but he’s in the late game so you may want to be wary.

Carnell Williams: He is listed as questionable and will be a game time decision.  I’d stay away from the situation.

Percy Harvin: He has yet to practice due to migraines.  This has happened before, but never for such a long time and Coach Major Dad said Harvin couldn’t go over the game plan for the week.  There is a chance he won’t go so pay attention to Razzball for the news on Sunday morning.

Devin Hester: He has yet to practice and doesn’t look like he’ll play which will leave Charles Woodson free to cover Greg Olsen.  Don’t start Olsen.  He won’t do well.

Matthew Stafford: He is out and Daunte Culpepper will get the start.  Calvin Johnson isn’t the greatest start, but Culpepper shouldn’t hurt him too much.

Davone Bess-clearly the “Bess” receiver on the team, the man with the predator locks has emerged as a confident, productive receiver over the past few weeks.  Bess was fourth in the league last week with 14 targets and he has 25 over the past three weeks.  His monster game on Sunday during which he grabbed ten passes for 117 yards and a touchdown was clearly his most proficient game of the year, but Bess’ best may be yet to come.  He faces the abysmal Jaguars pass defense next weekend and could be a great flex play for those of you looking to gain a playoff berth.  He also faces the Titans and the Texans in the fantasy playoffs respectively.

Antonio Bryant-Bryant has come back strong from injury and he is showing why some drafted him in the middle of the pack.  Last week, he was 14^th in the league with 11 targets, catching five passes for 116 yards against Carolina.  This was an improvement on his performance against Atlanta in week 12 during which he caught three passes for 91 yards.  Bryant is a big-play guy and though I don’t like his matchup this week against the Jets, he draws Seattle and NO for the playoffs.  If he is available on waivers I would definitely go after him.

Michael Crabtree-though the former holdout has yet to have a breakout game, Crabtree has been nothing if not consistent.  Over his last four games he is averaging 4.5 catches and 60 yards per contest and last week against Seattle he grabbed six passes for 60 yards.  As the Niners’ #1 guy, Crabtree gets his share of targets and he had 13 last week, good for 6^th in the league.  Over the past three weeks, Crabtree has received 27 targets which puts him towards the top of all receivers.  Though Crabtree’s ceiling is low, if you are looking for a solid 8-12 points from your flex spot, he could be worth a look.  He also has Detroit in week 16.  It should be worth noting here that Josh Morgan has seen his targets skyrocket as well and he is fifth in RZ targets over the last three weeks (5).  Morgan could be worthy of consideration in deeper leagues.

Robert Meachem-I seem to keep coming back to him, and quite frankly, he continues to impress me.  I have owned Meachem for the last four weeks, electing to start him only once and I have regretted it.  The big knock on Meachem is his consistency, but over the last four weeks he has simply been a fantasy monster.  I think it is safe to say that he has surpassed Devery Henderson as Brees’ second favorite receiving target, and over the last three games, Meachem has commanded 19 targets, tying him with Colston for the team lead.  Meachem also gets a lot of attention in the RZ and his eight catch, 142 yard game made me a believer that he was more than just a guy who catches touchdowns.  Oh yeah, and Meachem scored yet again, bringing his touchdown total to eight, a team high.  I am definitely starting him this week against a piss porous Atlanta pass defense.

Louis Murphy-Murphy is getting a lot of hype this week due to his four catch, 128 yard and a touchdown performance last week, but I would be a reluctant to waste a waiver claim on him.  Over his last three games before last Sunday, Murphy had a total of three receptions for 51 yards.  Murphy has 18 targets over his last three games and though Gradkowski has provided a much needed spark to the Raider offense, I think the smarter waiver choice would be Meachem, Bryant, or Bess in that order.

Devin Thomas-Thomas was targeted eight times on Sunday and twice in the RZ.  Thomas made good on seven of those targets, garnering 100 yards and two touchdowns.  Like Murphy, Thomas has not been particularly productive aside from last week’s game, but he has been more of a consistent contributor to his team’s offense.  The Skin’s play Oakland, NYG, and Dallas in the coming weeks, which means that Thomas could have some value in the playoffs.  His 21 targets over the last three games should also raise some eyebrows and even if you can’t find a spot for him on your roster this year, he could be an intriguing option for next year in keeper leagues.

Devin Hester-over the past three weeks, Hester has all but vanished from fantasy relevancy.  This is largely due to his lack of targets as he has only 16 targets over the last three games, tying him with teammate Earl Bennett and putting him just two ahead of Johnny Knox.  Over that same span, Hester has only managed a total of five catches for 86 yards and zero touchdowns.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like things will get much better for Hester who draws Green Bay, Baltimore, and Minnesota over the next three weeks.

Pierre Garcon-once again, Garcon is on the list after another stellar performance against a tough Tennessee defense on Sunday during which he caught six passes for 136 yards.  More importantly, Garcon’s targets have been increasing steadily and over the last three games Garcon has surpassed Wayne in that category (27 to 24 respectively).  Though Wayne is clearly the man, Garcon deserves to be started weekly at a WR 2 or flex spot depending on the matchup.

Target Trends Over the Last Three Weeks

Potentially Available Players With Over 25 Targets and Their Rank in the League

7. Brandon Gibson (30)

10. Mohammed Massaquoi (29)

11. Donnie Avery (29)

17. Pierre Garcon (27)

17. Kenny Britt (27)

17. Michael Crabtree (27)

25. Davone Bess (25)

#1 Guys With Under 20 Targets and Their Rank in the League

40. Nate Burleson (20)

40. Housh (20)

45. Marques Colston (19)

47. Vincent Jackson (18)

47. Roy Williams (18)

57. Devin Hester (16)

71. Greg Jennings (14)

Top 5 RZ Targets

1. Brandon Marshall (12)

2. Andre Johnson (9)

3. Pierre Garcon (8)

4. Santana Moss (7)

5. Josh Morgan (6)

Anthony Gonzalez: He had a little surgery the other day.  You know, they just scraped around inside his body to see what was up.  He’s been out since the beginning of time and you have held onto him thinking he would help you in the fantasy playoffs.  Well, the fantasy is over.  Drop him like a cheating significant other and pick up any other who is significant and doesn’t get hurt by a stiff, air conditioned breeze.

Anquan Boldin: He should play, but be sure to check out his status before committing to him.  I committed to a black taco the other day and my status quickly fell to OUT. You can’t not start Boldin, but his injury also makes Breaston a decent start if Quan reaggravates his ankle.

Donald Brown: It looks like he’ll play after practicing Wednesday and Thursday, but taking Friday off for napping and general merriment. He’s not a great play against a gradually stouter Houston run defense, but if you are hurting it looks like you can get him in there.

Calvin Johnson: Of course he’ll be a game time decision and since the Lions play in the great Northwest we won’t know in time for you to set your lineups.  And there is always a good chance he’ll be mauled by a bear or gored by an elk.  But all the reports look like he’ll go.  I think he will go.  I hope he goes.  I have a voodoo doll of Megatron (well, it’s just my old Megatron) and I’m soaking him in a little jacuzzi and then spraying him down with WD-40.

Marlin Jackson/Bob Sanders: The Colts’ defensive backfield is banged up, but these two guys have been banged up for a while.  Combined, they had started 6 games and had 9 tackles. It doesn’t help Indy, but it’s not a huge blow to them either. They’ve been good without them.

Devin Hester: He has been limited in practice with a gimpy ankle this week.  He should start, but this may boost Knox’s value up a little if Hester takes a bad step somewhere.  Hester has been playing well so you probably need to get him in there.

Lance Moore: He won’t play.  If you have him stashed since he’s on the prolific Saints offense it’s time to stash him in the free agent’s pool.

Antonio Bryant: His knee started acting up on him on the flight home from the UK. What do these guys do on these flights? Hasselbeck was out for the season last year because of a flight.  Maybe they should invest in a little more leg room?  Oh, and don’t play in England anymore.  Nobody cares.  Antonio Bryant is droppable if you haven’t already.  He just can’t stay healthy.

Brian Westbrook: He didn’t practice Friday, but he did practice earlier in the week and Reid is positive he’ll go and split time with McCoy so that makes what, 2 carries?  He was looking better before the concussion so you need to get him in there.

Aaron Rodgers: His foot is a little gnarly, but he’s quietly leading all QB’s in fantasy points.  Keep riding him and his gimpy foot into the ground and into fantasy glory!